DFS Alerts
Walker Buehler has struck out 11 of his last 45 with increased velocity in his last start
Walker Buehler got a late start this year and just hasn’t looked right yet. The 5.21 ERA with a .167 BABIP is alarming, but despite five runs crossing the plate last time out in 4.2 innings, the velocity bumped up and he struck out five of 22 Angel. Buehler also had a 19.5 SwStr% in his previous start against the Giants. Perhaps he’s getting on track. Only one of his six Barrels have come over his last two starts. He has a career 21.7 K-BB% and should slice through the Rockies at home. Players may have a chance to get him at reduced ownership due to recent results. The Rockies have a 67 wRC+, 25.3 K% and 6.7 HR/FB on the road. The bottom half of the lineup is generally full of inferior hitters. Buehler is down to $8.5K and the main concern may be the workload, but he’s increased his pitch count in every outing so far (89 last start) and should be ready for close to 100 here. Unless you’re paying for Walker Buehler, there really isn’t another sure bet on the board.
The Dodgers have a 19.6 K% and 19.2 HR/FB vs RHP this year
Jon Gray struck out a season high seven Rangers last time out and has had the disadvantage of pitching four of his five outings at Coors. There’s been legitimate concern about a two mile per hour drop in velocity, but he’s begun compensating for that by upping his slider usage to 35% over his last two starts popping his swinging strike rate up over 15% in that span. This means he’s giving up ground balls (under 45% last two starts), which may not be a good approach against the Dodgers. Considering the 11 runs (three HRs) he’s allowed over 10.1 innings, one wonders how long he’ll stick with it. This is a terrible matchup for Gray. The Dodgers have a team 125 wRC+, 19.6 K% and 19.2 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Gray has had particular trouble with LHBs since last season (.335 wOBA, .192 ISO). Corey Seager (.370 wOBA, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is looking great in this spot. This season he has a 149 wRC+ with 19.7% Barrels/BBE overall.
Tim Anderson has a .418 wOBA vs LHP since 2019
Jon Lester struck out a season high five Brewers last time out and also allowed five of his seven runs this season. The underlying numbers are terrifying though. He hasn’t exceeded a 6.5 SwStr% in any start. His 94.8 SwStr% is worst on the board. The velocity is down over a mile per hour (89.7). The one thing he’s got going for him is an 86.5 mph aEV, which would be his second lowest mark of the Statcast era. Estimators are not buying into the .188 BABIP and 84.3 LOB%. They’re all well above four even assuming he retains a strikeout rate not supported at all by his 4.6 SwStr%. This is an incredibly dangerous spot against a White Sox offense with tons of power vs LHP (155 wRC+, 26.8 HR/FB). RHBs have a .332 wOBA, .182 ISO against Lester since last season. While you can really pick your poison with this lineup, the top five are all above a .200 ISO vs LHP since last year, Tim Anderson is the batter who really stands out atop the lineup (.418 wOBA, .261 ISO) because he also tops the entire lineup with a 216 wRC+ overall this year.
Aaron Nola (35.5 K-BB%) is the clear top pitcher on the board
Aaron Nola seems to be really meshing well with the new coaching staff. He’s wrung up 39.8% of the batters he’s faced on a 14.8 SwStr%. Of course, the strikeout rate will regress, but there’s some great work being done (35.5 K-BB%, 48.1 GB%, 87.2 mph aEV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE). His 2.28 SIERA is lowest on the board by nearly a full run. The same for his 1.48 DRA. A 12.5 Z-O-Swing% is absurd. That means batters are swinging at nearly the same number of pitches out of the strike zone that they are in it. Of course, his .228 xwOBA and 2.43 xERA are best on the board as well. While the Braves have a 119 wRC+ and 19.8 HR/FB against RHP, they are missing two key bats at the top of the lineup and also have a 26.1 K% vs RHP. Nola is the most expensive pitcher on the board by more than $1K on FanDuel because he’s also the best arm on the board by a wide margin. It’s not the best matchup on the slate, but it’s one he should be able to navigate with Atlanta’s injuries.
Dinelson Lamet has a 25 K-BB% and 1.3 mph increase in velocity this season
Dinelson Lamet has struck out at least seven in four of his five starts (32.1 K%, 15 SwStr%), while lowering his walk rate 2.5 points in addition to increasing his velocity 1.3 mph this season. Lamet had a 19.7 HR/FB last year despite just 7.5% Barrels/BBE and it’s gone a bit the other way this year with a 6.9 HR/FB with a two mph increase in exit velocity (90.3%). Sustain the 25 K-BB% and it won’t matter as much. The Rangers do have an impressive 10.1 K-BB% vs RHP this year, but with a 70 wRC+ and 7.5 HR/FB. If we look at individual batter performance since last season though, there are some strikeouts at the top of the lineup for Lamet. The two through four batters all have a strikeout rate above 28% against RHPs since 2019. There are certainly going to be outs. There are four batters in the lineup below a .310 wOBA against RHPs since 2019. Lamet is just the fourth most expensive pitcher on this slate ($9.4K on FanDuel), but with plenty of upside in this matchup. He gets an additional strike framing boost if Austin Hedges is in the lineup.
RHBs scorched Jose Suarez last year (.437 wOBA, .290 ISO)
Jose Suarez struck out batters at an average rate last year, but walked far too many (12.3%). He really struggled with RHBs (.437 wOBA, .290 ISO with 20 HRs in 279 PAs!). The Giants have a lineup that can hit lefties. Players should strongly consider Austin Slater, likely in the leadoff spot tonight. He has a .409 wOBA and .255 ISO in 114 PAs against southpaws since last season. It’s a small sample size, but there’s probably something there. He has a 200 wRC+ overall this season, generating 14.3% Barrels/BBE and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel.
Affordable GPP Stack
In GPP formats tonight, I will definitely go overweight on Arizona bats. Sean Manaea has not looked right so far this season with ugly surface numbers, and he has allowed hard contact at a 45%+ clip since the start of 2019. Sure, he has been unlucky to some degree, but the Diamondbacks have plenty of hitters who can hit for power against LHP. Ketel Marte has a .400 wOBA and a .261 ISO against LHP since the beginning of 2019 and is one of my favorite GPP plays on the slate. Throw in Starling Marte and Christian Walker as part of your power upside stack.
Other tagged players: Starling Marte, Christian Walker
More Upside In His New Home
During his career with the A’s, Sonny Gray was a constant disappointment despite his immense talent, and he posted merely a league average strikeout rate of around 21%. However, his career has taken off with the Reds, as he had a strikeout rate of almost 29% last year. That has jumped even higher so far in 2020. His ascension with a new team almost parallels the rise that we saw from Gerrit Cole when he went from the Pirates to the Astros. Sometimes, all it takes is a change of scenery. Gray matches up well with a depleted Cardinals lineup and is one of the top options on the slate in all formats.
Risk/Reward GPP Appeal
Woodruff is a very talented pitcher who won’t carry a ton of ownership on this slate thanks to a difficult matchup against the Twins. We also have a slate that is loaded at the pitching position. Woodruff has the talent to be a top end starter in the league, and he’s more affordable than some of the other aces. He owns a 29% strikeout rate over the last two seasons with very strong peripherals. Don’t sleep on him as a GPP option here.
Lefties have a .360 wOBA and .278 ISO against Asher Wojciechowski since last year
Asher Wojciechowski missed bats at a decent rate last year (11.5 SwStr%), but with considerable hard contact issues (10.2% Barrels/BBE). Through four starts this year, he has a 12.3 SwStr%, but has allowed five HRs (90 mph aEV). A hard contact prone fly ball generator without an elite strikeout rate is going to struggle in Baltimore. The Red Sox have just a 95 wRC+, 26.8 K% and 12.4 HR/FB vs RHP. The key here is that lefties have smashed Wojciechowski for a .360 wOBA and .278 ISO since last year and the Red Sox should have two of their best at the top of the lineup under $3K on FanDuel tonight. Rafael Devers has struggled (81 wRC+ in 2020), but still owns a .399 wOBA and .267 ISO vs RHP since last season. Even $100 cheaper at $2.7K, Alex Verdugo (.349 wOBA, .216 ISO) has not struggled (134 wRC+ in 2020). These are the two key pieces for what should be a potent stack of LHBs against Wojciechowski tonight.
Too Cheap on FD
As much as I love Gausman on every single site, Ohtani is way too cheap for how good he is. Yes, its going to be around 66 degrees during the game, but the wind is blowing out to center and SF has played much more like a pitchers ballpark this season. Ohtani owns a .241 ISo and .353 wOBA against RHP since the beginning of last season and is priced under 3k over on FD. Just throw him in and move on.
Top Cheap Bat DK
I really don’t understand the DK pricing algorithm, but it makes me click on Cronenworth nearly every day. On the season vs RHP he owns a fantastic .375 ISO and .423 wOBA. He’s priced as one of the cheapest options on the slate and is probably batting 6th against a fairly mediocre pitcher. Just take the free square over on DK and move on.
Decent pitcher in a good spot
Eovaldi has probably lost me more money than any other pitcher over the last year, but you know what they say about DFS. Treat DFS like you treat relationships, never remember the past and keep repeating your mistakes. Evoaldi has actually pitched decent this season and owns a 22.9% K rate to go with 4.2% walks. He faces a Baltimore lineup with a few decent bats, but collectively they own a .304 wOBA vs RHP since the beginning of last season. This is a slate with a lot of aces, so you need to save at your SP2 and outside of Gausman, Eovaldi is your best option.
Top Pitcher on the Slate
It appears that I’m the only one who’s really confused about how Gausman isn’t the top play on the entire slate, but I’m all in. Gausman has been fantastic since the all star break last season owning over a 30% K rate and a sub 3.2 xFIP. He draws a tough matchup against the Angels and the wind is blowing out, but I don’t care. He is going to crush it today and I will likely have close to 100% ownership.
Pittsburgh lineup has five batters below a .280 wOBA vs RHP since 2019
Shane Bieber has a 42.9 K% through five starts with a 19.8 SwStr% that’s nearly a league average strikeout rate by itself. He’s allowed just five runs on the season (four HRs) and has not allowed a run in three of his five starts. Once you add in his contact profile, a 2.70 xERA is the worst of his estimators due 46.2% of his contact being above a 95 mph exit velocity, but when you’re striking out nearly half the batters you face, who even cares? The Pirates have a pathetic 50 wRC+, 18 K-BB% and 10.9 HR/FB this year. Tonight’s lineup will produce just three batters above a .150 ISO against RHP since last season with five of them also below a .280 wOBA! Bieber has seemingly solved earlier career issues with LHBs, holding batters from either side below a .275 wOBA and .165 ISO since last season. Bieber is the most expensive pitcher on the slate by more than $1K on FanDuel, but we’re putting the best pitcher in the top spot. It would certainly seem worth your fantasy dollars tonight.