DFS Alerts
Bryce Harper is punishing the baseball (209 wRC+, 17.8% Barrels/BBE)
Zach Godley has thrown four scoreless innings twice and allowed 13 ERs (five HRs) in 6.1 innings over his other two outings. His 14.8 SwStr% has generated just a 19.7 K%. He’s also allowed 9.8% Barrels/BBE on a reasonable 87.6 mph aEV. It looks like his results are much worse than they should be. A .391 BABIP really has no justification from his batted ball profile, but Statcast gives him a 6.40 ERA and his DRA is 5.73, so maybe it actually is justified. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and .190 ISO against him since last season though, so there’s likely some value in pounding a Philadelphia offense with just an 18.1 K% vs RHP this year. Bryce Harper (.367 wOBA, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2019) costs $4.2K, but may be one of the top overall bats on the board tonight. He has a 209 wRC+ this year with 17.8% Barrels/BBE.
Tony Gonsolin has a 15 K-BB% and just 2.3% Barrels/BBE in 48.2 major league innings
Tony Gonsolin struck out eight of the 18 Padres he faced in his second start after just one of 13 Diamondbacks in his first. A 15 K-BB% in 48.2 major league innings is quality work. Even more impressive, he’s allowed just three total Barrels (2.3%). Combine that with a K-BB above 15% at virtually every stop along the minors and Gonsolin may not get the hype of recent Dodger pitching prospects, but he has middle of the rotation upside. There should be plenty of strikeouts in this Seattle lineup for him too. Among projected starters here, only to Mariners are below a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Tony Gonsolin may just be the mid-range arm you’re looking for at just $7.1K on FanDuel. With 82 pitches in his last start too, he may have some Quality Start potential as well, especially considering the workload the Dodger bullpen took on in a shoot-out last night.
Kenta Maeda has a 19.3 K-BB% (14.5 SwStr%) through four starts
Kenta Maeda owns a 19.3 K-BB% through four starts, but his 14.5 SwStr% is more in line with his rate last year and suggests an increase in his 23.1 K% to something closer to his 27.1% rate in 2019 as well. Maeda has long been an elite contact manager (86.6 mph aEV this year, 86.3 mph career) and has allowed just 4.9% career Barrels/BBE, while never going above 5.2% in a season. The interesting thing this year is that he’s generated a ground ball rate above 50% in three of his four starts, while he’s been below 41% in each of the last three seasons. With a 2.66 ERA, 3.66 SIERA, 2.39 DRA and 3.24 xERA Maeda may be putting it all together this year. He combines the uptick in performance with a great spot on Tuesday night. The Brewers have a team 72 wRC+ and 20.2 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Maeda could be considered one of the top pitchers on the mound tonight and for $1K less than Darvish and Carrasco, potentially a better value too.
Large Field Tournament Play
Nate Pearson is the number one prospect for the Blue Jays, and a top ten prospect in all of baseball. He has an electric fastball with really good off speed stuff. He has struggled with command, which is the concerning part while considering him today. Baltimore does have the third fewest walks against right-handed pitching this season. Pearson has the upside to have a big game, and I really like his value for large field tournaments. I respect that Baltimore has been better this season, but they still strike out at a high clip.
Anthony Rendon has smashed LHP since last year (.426 wOBA, .301 ISO)
Tyler Anderson has a -2.7 K-BB%, 31.4 GB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE through 17.1 innings for the Giants. His 3.63 ERA is completely the product of a .235 BABP and 87.2 LOB%. His velocity is down two miles per hour from the last time he threw more than 20 major league innings in 2018. Anthony Rendon is the most potent bat against southpaws for the Angels (Mike Trout is actually better against RHP). Since last season, Rendon has put up a .426 wOBA and .301 ISO against lefties. He costs $4K on FanDuel, but has a 161 wRC+ overall this season and should be considered one of the top bats on the board tonight.
Corey Seager has Barreled one-fifth of his contact
Justin Dunn has failed to strike out more than he’s walked in any of his three starts yet (-3.4 K-BB%) and thus, even a 4.85 ERA is a bit of a mirage (.205 BABIP). Add in a 91.4 mph aEV and we can’t find a single estimator less than at least a run above his actual results. With a 21.5 K-BB% in 25 AA starts last season, we can see why the Mariners keep running him out there, but Dunn may be one pitcher who could have benefited from more minor league time this season. The Dodgers should further his education here. They have schooled RHP with a 124 wRC+, 17.8 HR/FB and just a 19.2 K%. LHBs have a .367 wOBA and even more damaging .448 xwOBA against Dunn in his short career. Corey Seager has a .366 wOBA and .241 ISO against RHP since last season. He’s been scorching the ball in 2020 with a 150 wRC+ and 20% Barrels/BBE. Seager costs $3.5K on FanDuel tonight and could be one of the top overall bats on the board.
Zac Gallen is following up on a strong rookie season with more of the same (29.8 K%)
Zac Gallen impressed with a 2.81 ERA and 28.7 K% in his rookie year. Through four starts in 2020, he has a 2.74 ERA and 29.8 K%. His FIP is a bit higher due to a doubled HR/FB (20%), but his xFIP has dropped along with his walk rate (7.4%). His ground ball rate (45.6%) is up significantly as well, but the contact he’s generated has been harder by more than two miles per hour (89.7). As a result, he’s already more than 50% of the way to his total number of Barrels last season (8) with five. Gallen’s a good pitcher, but with an 85.7 career LOB%, his ERA may have close to a full run of regression in it. The A’s are a tough lineup (115 wRC+, 12 BB% vs RHP – 149 wRC+, 21.2 HR/FB overall last seven days), but they’re coming off a series against one of the worst pitching staffs in the league in San Francisco and will be without Ramon Laureano again tonight. Gallen doesn’t have much of a split, holding batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and .160 ISO in his career, but this is still an Oakland lineup that produces quality bats against RHP nearly all the way through. That said, we still may not find a better pitcher on tonight’s slate than Gallen. Only Toukie Toussaint has a higher strikeout rate and Gallen likely has the higher floor of the two. One concern could be if Arizona decides to open the roof again tonight.
Matthew Boyd has allowed five HRs in 19.1 innings
Matthew Boyd had an elite strikeout rate (30.2%) with a major Home Run problem (39) last year. He must have made the wrong adjustments (if any) because he’s already allowed five HRs in 19.1 innings, but the strikeout rate has plummeted to 18.8%. Both his exit velocity (90 mph) and Barrels/BBE (11.8%) are up with 44.1% of his contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. The spin rate on his slider is down nearly 100 RPM and the pitch has been getting hammered, doubling from a .245 wOBA and .246 xwOBA last year. The White Sox have a 131 wRC+ and 21.6 HR/FB vs LHP. This is a lineup loaded with RH power and batters from that side have a .341 wOBA and .234 ISO against Boyd since last season. This is just a terrible spot for him. It’s hard to pick just one, but Jose Abreu (.402 wOBA, .220 ISO vs LHP since 2019) may be one of the top bats on the slate for just $3K on FanDuel tonight.
Mitch Garver (.430 wOBA vs LHP since 2019) costs just $2.5K on FanDuel
Kris Bubic had never pitched above A ball until just a few weeks ago. Considering, he’s acquitted himself fairly competently (17.7 K-BB%, 3.72 SIERA, 4.03 DRA, 60 GB%, .302 xwOBA, 84.1 mph aEV). His ERA is above five due to a 63.3 LOB% and three of his 12 fly balls leaving the yard, but his actual wOBA is 36 points above what Statcast projects, which may mean he’s run into a little bit of bad luck, allowing more HRs than Barrels. The Twins have certainly not lived up to their potential against LHP this year in a small sample (85 wRC+, 8.8 HR/FB), but haven’t struck out much either (19.4%). While Bubic has shown a reverse split so far, RHBs have a .305 wOBA against him. Mitch Garver in the two hole tonight means potentially great value on FanDuel. He costs just $2.5K and has a .430 wOBA with a .346 ISO against southpaws since last season.
J.D. Davis provides a bargain against RHP (.373 wOBA, .208 ISO since 2019)
Jordan Yamamoto has gone exactly twice through the order in both starts this year, striking out nine of 36 (the same rate as last season) with just two walks. Similar to last year too, his swinging strike rate is well below league average at just 8.5%. In addition, his velocity is down over a mile and a half per hour (90.2) and he’s allowed two HRs in each of his starts. Just five of 25 batted balls have been on the ground. He’s generated more Barrels (six) than grounders and his average exit velocity is a screeching 95 mph. The Mets produce a well-balanced, potent lineup against RHP (115 wRC+). Yamamoto has a reverse split in his career (RHBs .335 wOBA), though batters from either side of the plate exceed a .180 ISO. This makes J.D. Davis a very interesting bat here. He has a .373 wOBA and .208 ISO against same-handed pitching since last season and costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. Davis has been hitting higher in the order this year, producing a 138 wRC+ overall.
Touki Toussaint has the highest strikeout rate on the board (30.3%)
Touki Toussaint is a live and erratic arm. To illustrate, in 42.1 innings last year, he struck out 22.7% (11.8 SwStr%) with a 13.1 BB%. He’s cut down on those walks this year with three of his five walks coming in one start. He’s struck out 30.3% of the batters he’s faced, supported by a 14.2 SwStr%, yet he has an ERA above seven because three of his 12 fly balls have left the yard and he’s stranded fewer than half his runners (45.5%). There’s more than a three run gap between his ERA and all of his estimators, although he’ll have to clean up some of the hard contact (11.1% Barrels/BBE, 89.3 mph EV). The Nationals have just an 84 wRC+ and 11.5 HR/FB vs RHP this year. While the top half of the lineup contains competent bats against RHP, Juan Soto is really the only major threat and the bottom half contains plenty of upside for Toussaint in their strikeout rates. He’s held RHBs to a .288 wOBA since last season. While carrying some blow up risk, Toussaint’s $7.1K price tag on FanDuel with a highest strikeout rate on the board could potentially make him a top value on tonight’s slate.
Mis-Pricing Can't Be Ignored
DK pricing on hitters is extremely tight in most places tonight, but we’ve got one clear mis-pricing that makes for a virtual must-play in cash games, and a strong play in tournaments as well due to the position. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud is one of the better hitting catchers in the league to begin with, coming in with a 57% hard hit rate so far this season. Due to injuries in the Atlanta lineup, he’ll be batting third in the order sandwiched in between Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna.
Excellent Power Matchup
First off let me say that I am beyond saddened that we don’t get to roster Ronald Acuna Jr in what would be a nut matchup for him. However, even without Acuna in the lineup the Braves still make for one of the top overall stacks of the night against Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has allowed at least 4 ER in each of his three starts this season, good for a 9.69 ERA (5.30 SIERA) through 13 IP. Now, Sanchez is obviously not THAT bad, but he’s still a premier pitcher to target due to his propensity to give up both HRs and stolen bases. Without Acuna the Braves don’t have a ton of speed in their lineup but they do have guys that can hit for power, including Marcell Ozuna who I love as a one-off if you’re not full out stacking the Braves.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Dansby Swanson, Travis d'Arnaud
Leverage Stack
While Jordan Lyles has always struggled with control, he’s been especially wild this season with a 16% walk rate. His lack of control in combination with a 44% hard hit rate and 5.8 SwStr% makes him one of the slate’s premier pitchers to attack. Despite squaring off against one of the worst pitchers on the slate, I don’t expect Padres hitters to soak up significant ownership which makes them an excellent stack to leverage the field with in large-field tournaments.
Late Night Hammer
There is a lot of great offense tonight, but nothing stands out more than the Dodgers lefties against the Mariners Justin Dunn. Dunn has a horrendous 5:13 K:BB ratio against lefties with 50% fly balls when he gets hit. With power and patience throughout the lineup, the quartet of Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Joc Pederson are all strong plays. Seager is helped by his shortstop eligibility and has an impressive 58% hard hit so far this season while striking out just 11%.