DFS Alerts
Have To Play Somebody
This is a bad pitching slate that lacks upside at the high end or any kind of safety in the mid-tier. Zack Greinke really isn’t an ace for DFS purposes and I don’t by any means love this salary. But, we do have to play somebody and there are so many hitting values that I am not finding salary to be much of an issue. What Greinke lacks in strikeout ability, he makes up for with his great control and consistency, along with having one of the best matchups on the board tonight. You do not need to force Greinke in tournament lineups, but I would start with him in cash, and settle on him in tournaments if the salary allows.
Severely Underpriced
Hoskins is severely underpriced across the industry making him a lock for cash games and a strong tournament target as well regardless of high expected ownership. Hoskins has yet to hit a HR this season but still rates as a well above average hitter with a 114 wRC+ through 52 plate appearances. Historically, Hoskins has dominated LHP to the tune of a 131 wRC+ and a .230 ISO throughout his career.
Take Advantage of Low Ownership
Maeda likely won’t garner a ton of ownership on this slate. His price tag has been inflated on almost every site, and he faces off against a potent Brewers offense. Many will gravitate toward the safety of Greinke at the top, and while Greinke is certainly fine, Maeda has some sneaky upside. His strikeout rate has risen to a mark well above league average over the last few years, and the Brewers do tend to run hot and cold offensively. He can be considered an ace on this thin pitching slate, particularly if pOWN comes to show us relatively low ownership percentages in GPP formats.
High Upside Stack In a Great Spot
The Philliies let a game get away last night, but they are in a prime spot to rebound on Wednesday against a mediocre lefty in Wade LeBlanc. I like a few angles for a GPP stack here. Rhys Hoskins is too cheap on every DFS site, Bryce Harper is always under-owned in L/L matchups, and J.T. Realmuto makes sense on sites where you need a catcher. Andrew McCutchen is also viable, particularly on FD where his price tag remains discounted. There’s definite upside to this offense in a favorable park for hitting.
Frustrating and Streaky, But Too Cheap
I understand if you’re hesitant to use Rhys Hoskins, he’s likely to remain a streaky hitter with his fly balls, but there is so much to like here, especially at this salary. While it’s hard not to see a .211 batting average with no homers, everything under the surface looks great. 31% line drives, 38% fly balls and 48% hard hits with more walks than strikeouts. Even in the midst of being ‘cold’, he has five hits in the last three days, and he faces a low strikeout lefty with a bad bullpen. I’m on board.
Cheap Bats at Premium Positions
The Tigers are off to a scorching hot start in this abbreviated season ranking 3rd in MLB at 5.21 runs per game. They are led by Niko Goodrum and Jonathan Schoop at the top of the order. Miguel Cabrera still crushes left-handed pitching despite his advanced age and is dirt cheap across the DFS sites. Tonight they get a matchup against an average LHP in Gio Gonzalez. Since the start of 2019, Gio has a 4.67 XFIP and has allowed a .344 wOBA and .186 ISO to RH hitters.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Schoop
Mike Trout has a .393 ISO vs RHP since last season
Mike Fiers has a ridiculous 5.4 SwStr% through three starts and just a 3.0 K-BB% despite just three walks. An ERA above five matches estimators this year because even with average contact management, there’s only so much you can do with those peripherals. His velocity has tanked over two miles per hour and remained below 90 mph in each of his three starts. Fiers will face a potent offense with a 118 wRC+ and 9.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year. A reverse split (RHBs .325 wOBA, .368 xwOBA since 2019) potentially hurts him here against the best player in the world. Mike Trout is now up to a .393 ISO against same-handed pitching since last season and has an overall 205 wRC+ this year. Twenty percent of his contact has been barreled. Trout is likely the top overall bat on the board outside Coors in a near neutral run environment.
Ketel Marte (148 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP since 2019) may be the top bat at Coors
Kyle Freeland has just a 7.1 K-BB%, but 54.9 GB% through three starts. The .235 BABIP and 87.2 LOB% explain a two point difference between ERA and estimators, though the contact profile (1.9% Barrels/BBE) supports something in between (.302 xwOBA, 3.52 xERA). The Arizona offense has come alive (125 wRC+, 19.5 K% last seven days) and is set up well to hit LHP, starting at the top, where Ketel Marte (148 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP since last season) may be the top overall bat on the board and worth paying up for ($4K on FanDuel). Since last season, RHBs have a .370 wOBA and .374 xwOBA against Freeland. The two teams at Coors currently have the top implied run lines on the board (both 5.75).
Nike Goodrum has a 164 wRC+ vs LHP since last year
Gio Gonzalez has had one decent outing out of three and that one only lasted 3.2 innings against the Royals. The 7.9 K-BB% isn’t pretty, though he does have an 11 SwStr%. A 27.9 GB% is 19 points below his career rate. The .425 BABIP has a 39.5 LD% behind it. That’s not to say he’ll keep that up, but his .407 xwOBA is actually 29 points better than his real results. His 7.03 xERA is easily the worst mark on the board. The Tigers have hit LHP well (160 wRC+), but that’s a small sample. They also have the top team wRC+ in baseball over the last week (153) with a 26.7 HR/FB. They’re likely to be without their cleanup hitter, C.J. Cron, but the top third of the lineup still boats some accomplished RHBs against LHP. Add in Gonzalez’s .344 wOBA/.351 xwOBA against RHBs since last year and this is looking like a strong spot for Niko Goodrum (164 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP since 2019), who’s barreled 16.1% of his contact according to Statcast, for less than $3K out of the leadoff spot.
Jon Lester has just a 2.4 SwStr%
Cleveland has the ability to stack the lineup entirely with RHBs, due to a number of switch hitters up top. Batters from that side have a .333 wOBA/.342 xwOBA against Lester since last season. He’s struck out just five of 42 batters on a 2.4 SwStr%, as his fastball is no longer averaging even 90 mph for the first time in his career. An .091 BABIP and 100 LOB% may be masking some serious decline. In this case, one of the top values on the slate would be Jordan Luplow, batting 6th tonight. Luplow has a 186 wRC+ and .400 ISO vs LHP since last season. His .408 xwOBA is 47 points worse than his actual results against southpaws over this span, but still an elite number. Luplow costs just $100 above the minimum on FanDuel.
Touki Toussaint is a live arm (35.1 K%, 16.1 SwStr%) in a tough spot
Touki Toussaint is an exciting, but volatile young arm. For instance, in his first start, he walked three of 18 Mets, but escaped without a run and has a 13.5 BB% in 84 big league innings now. However, he struck out nine Blue Jays in his last start without a single walk. He has an impressive 35.1 K% and 16.1 SwStr% on the season, walking just four of the 57 batters he’s faced. A .345 BABIP predicated on an absurd 32.3 LD% has his ERA above six, more than double his estimators and Statcast certainly confirms some contact issues with 12.9% Barrels/BBE, though it hadn’t been much of a problem previously (7.8% career). The Yankee offense has a 28.9 HR/FB at home and 22.1 HR/FB vs RHP this year. They can compensate for the loss of Stanton by sliding the very capable Mike Tauchman in and still present an entire lineup of dangerous bats against RHP. Toussaint has a very large platoon split, which may help him here though. He’s held RHBs to a .287 wOBA/.302 xwOBA since last season, while LHBs are 152 and 70 points higher. Even with Tauchman, the majority of the lineup is expected to sway right-handed. While the quality start is in question, Toussaint is a very interesting, potentially low owned tournament arm with upside for just $7.4K on FanDuel.
Dylan Bundy (14.6 SwStr%) has faced at least 24 batters in each start
Dylan Bundy is loving life in the AL West. He’s struck out 25 of 80 batters with a supporting 14.6 SwStr%, while walking just two. A 2.08 ERA is a little bit lower than estimators still in the mid twos due to a .184 BABIP and 82 LOB%, but only 25.5% of his contact has been above a 95 mph exit velocity. His 2.09 xERA is best on the board. Bundy was also a quality contact manager last year, allowing the same 5.9% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed in 2020 so far. Another positive for potential backers is that the Angels are letting Bundy work (at least 24 BF in each start) and the Angels’ pen was worked last night in a high scoring game. The A’s are one of the toughest lineups in baseball to navigate, though they have little left-handed power outside Matt Olson. Bundy has developed a slight split of about 20 points with RHBs below a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. The predominance of right-handed batters should play slightly in his favor and there are some strikeouts here. The A’s have a team 24.9 K% vs RHP this year. Bundy is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.7K) and not in any easy spot, but with concerns about Scherzer’s hamstring, he could be the better value tonight.
Back Here Again Tonight
Arizona scored 12 runs on 18 hits in the first game of the Coors Field series and the matchup is just as good tonight against the low strikeouts of Kyle Freeland. With just a 15%K rate to righties, Freeland will have his hands full with a Diamondbacks lineup with eight right-handed bats. Starling Marte hits in the middle of the lineup with his strong plate skills combined with both power and speed, giving him upside in every fantasy category.
Punt Play With Upside
I like Stripling a lot on this slate, but if you’re looking for a value play with some upside, then Cronenworth should be on your list. He’s 11 for 32 on the season and has at least one hit in eight of his last nine games. He only has three strikeouts in 27 PA against right-handed pitching, and he’s done almost all of his damage against right-handed pitchers. I don’t expect him to continue with a 248 wRC+ or a .500 ISO, but I do think he’s way underpriced for how he’s been hitting since being called up.
A lot Of Hard Contact
Hoskins has yet to hit a home run this season, and the whole Phillies offense has struggled to start the season. I’m sure the week off after playing the Marlins didn’t help. Hoskins had some hard-hit balls against Atlanta, and I’m hoping we’re starting to see some gains from him. It’s really good hitting weather in Philly today, and they make for a really strong low owned stack on this slate. Cobb has been reverse splits for years and has allowed a lot of power to right-handed hitters. If Hoskins puts the ball in play against him, it will likely be a lot of hard contact. I really like his upside for tournaments at this price point.