DFS Alerts
High Fly Ball Rate
I don’t tend to stack against Martin Perez a lot, but I do like taking right-handed power bats as one-offs against him. Hunter Renfroe is one of my favorite platoon hitters in baseball, and I love this spot for him. He has a .297 ISO with a 48.3% hard-hit rate and a 52.8% fly ball rate against left-handed pitching since the start of 2019. Perez has a sub 20% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters, and these are the types of lefties I like to take Renfroe against.
Cheap Power Bat
I really like the Cubs in this matchup, and Kyle Schwarber is a great value option on FanDuel tonight. Plutko has a .335 wOBA with a .196 ISO and a 11.1% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters since the start of the 2019 season. He also allows 34.3% hard contact on 46% fly balls against lefties. He mostly throws fastballs to left-handed hitters, which is what Kyle Schwarber usually does his damage too. Schwarber has a .290 ISO with a .370 wOBA against right-handed pitchers since the start of the 2019 season.
Value Play With Strikeout Upside
On FanDuel, you’re more than likely paying up for pitching in cash games, but Mike Minor is a really strong tournament option at this price. Despite having two to three good right-handed hitters, this lineup has struggled with left-handed pitching overall. Minor is above average against left-handed hitters, which should help him against Kyle Seager in this matchup. Minor throws his slider 31% of the time to left-handed hitters, and Kyle Seager has a .304 wOBA with a .127 ISO against left-handed sliders since 2016. I worry about Nola and Moore, but not enough to have some shares of Minor at this price point. Overall, if he pitches well, he could go six innings and pick up the quality start and win.
Let's Try This Again
We don’t have a ton of value pitching options on this slate, which makes me really like Stripling in this below $8,000 price range on DraftKings. He has a 3.80 xFIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 5.4% walk rate since the start of the 2019 season. The Padres are a much better offense than years past, but they still strikeout at a high clip against right-handed pitching. The projected starting lineup has five hitters with strikeout rates over 25% against righties since the start of the 2019 season. I think Stripling has a really nice floor, and he’s a strong value option on this slate.
Lance McCullers has struggled (6.1 K-BB%) since returning from injury
Lance McCullers Jr. has not looked sharp in his return from Tommy John surgery. In addition to a nearly full mph drop in velocity from pre-TJ levels, he was last seen surrendering eight runs in Arizona, striking out just a single batter. He stands at just a 6.1 K-BB% through three starts and has allowed a long ball in each one. McCullers has sustained his high ground ball rate (55.6%), but his 15.2% Barrels/BBE is still second worst on the board tonight. LHBs have smashed him at a .470 wOBA (.497 xwOBA) in his three starts this year. Be sure to check out Alex Dickerson (117 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2019), who generally bats second against RHPs, for just $2.5K on FanDuel.
Kole Calhoun is a high value bat at Coors ($3.3K on FanDuel)
Jon Gray has seen a nearly two mph velocity drop, averaging 94.2 mph on his heather in three starts and has failed to exceed an 8.0 SwStr% in any of them. A 10.6 K% is worst on the board and his ERA is below five only by the grace of a .204 BABIP and 5.0 HR/FB. He does have his ground ball rate back up over 50% in each of his last two starts, but 49.1% 95+ mph EV is second worst on the board and suggests his board best 1.8% Barrels/BBE is a fluke. While Gray seemed to intentionally sacrifice some strikeouts for ground balls at Coors in recent years, he’s going to have to do much better than 10%. The Diamondbacks started poorly, but the offense has been coming around recently (115 wRC+, 19.2 K% last seven days). Gray has some platoon issues (LHBs .335 wOBA, .350 xwOBA since last season), but the park makes the entire lineup stackable against him with just a 10% strikeout rate. While Ketel Marte (146 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is the clear top bat in the lineup, Kole Calhoun (113 wRC+, .247 ISO) may be of particular interest here, costing $1K less than Marte.
Trevor Story (137 wRC+, .269 ISO vs LHP since 2019) potential top bat on the board
Robbie Ray has increased his velocity over a mile and a half per hour, back to pre-2019 levels, but it hasn’t helped him a single bit. Ray has always had elite strikeout upside with control issues and the tendency to get hit hard when contact is made. In three starts, he has struck out 17 of 66 batters with just an 11.7 SwStr%, while walking 11 and allowing six HRs. While even he is unlikely to sustain a 24 HR/FB, a 43.8 Z-O-Swing% is worst on the board and it suggests batters aren’t being fooled. His 18.4% Barrels/BBE is easily the highest mark on the board and more than 50% of his contact has been above a 95 mile per hour exit velocity. The Colorado offense is propped up by the park, but they have an 18.7 HR/FB in a few games at home this year and haven’t been striking out much recently (21.6% last seven days). Ray has a significant platoon issue and Statcast confirms this with RHBs owning both a .344 wOBA & xwOBA against him since last season. Trevor Story may be the top overall bat on the board on Monday and certainly worth paying up for. His numbers against LHP since 2019 (137 wRC+, .269 ISO) are very comparable to Nolan Arenado and he more than doubles the latter’s 57 wRC+ this year with a 132 wRC+ and 51% hard hit rate overall.
Kyle Gibson should be able to find Ks in Seattle lineup (25 K% vs RHP this year)
Kyle Gibson blew away nine Oakland batters in his second start after setting down just four Diamondbacks in his first start. His total 28.3 K% comes with just a 9.2 SwStr%, which would be his lowest mark since 2014. Gibson usually works the other way, with an impressive SwStr% that would suggest a higher strikeout rate than he normally has. He’s been at a 53 GB% in each start, yet still 10.7% Barrels/BBE with two of his six fly balls leaving the yard. Regardless, the Mariners have some strikeout potential in this lineup. They have struck out in a quarter of their PAs against RHP this year and have a board low 68 wRC+ over the last week. While Gibson struggles with LHBs (.344 wOBA since 2019), the Mariners have little LH power to be concerned with. If players don’t want to pay up for Corbin tonight, Gibson should be able to limit damage with ground balls and generate enough whiffs to be useful at a reasonable price ($8.7K on FanDuel).
Patrick Corbin has averaged a board high six innings per start over the last two years
Patrick Corbin has struck out exactly eight in each of his starts against the Mets and Yankees, walking one and allowing a HR in each (four runs overall). His velocity is down two full mph and while an 11.9 SwStr% is above league average, it doesn’t support the 34 K% so far. A .321 xwOBA is well above his actual mark so far and a 92.1 mph aEV reminds us of his contact issues last year as well (89.9 mph aEV, 9.4% Barrels/BBE). The Mets have a well-balanced lineup with sufficient RH power in the middle. While Corbin has held LHBs to a .250 or lower wOBA & xwOBA since last season, RHBs have a 32 point separation between wOBA & xwOBA, which brings the latter up to .326. While there is the potential for guys like J.D. Davis (140 wRC+, .222 IS vs LHP since 2019) and Pete Alonso (144 wRC+, .355 ISO) to do some damage, players looking for a Quality Start (Corbin has averaged a board high six innings per start over the last two calendar years) in addition to strikeout upside can probably do no better than Corbin on Monday night. As such, he is the most expensive pitcher on the FanDuel board ($10.8K), by over $2K though.
It's Obvious For A Reason
On FD tonight, the pricing is close enough between the Rockies and Diamondbacks that you can go with whichever side you prefer. With Robbie Ray on the mound for Arizona, I will put Nolan Arenado ahead of Trevor Story on my wish list, but both Rockies righties are top of the line plays here. Both Arenado and Story have home run upside against the hard hits and fly balls from Ray, both belong in Colorado stacks from the middle of the order, and in cash games, there’s even more a floor with Ray’s high walk rate giving them on-base opportunities even if they aren’t hitting home runs.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story
The Only Ace
Patrick Corbin doesn’t quite get the recognition of guys like deGrom and Cole, but his consistency puts him firmly in the ace category. After back-to-back seasons over 28% strikeouts, he’s all the way up at a 34% K rate with just 2.1% walks to start 2020. There’s some power risk here, but there is no other pitcher on this slate who matches Corbin’s steady strikeouts, control and innings.
Chalky Stack
The combination of price + matchup is going to make Diamondback hitters chalky in all formats but I still want exposure to them in both cash games and tournaments. Jon Gray has skated by with a 3.31 ERA through three starts this season but has been unbelievably lucky with a .204 BABIP while generating soft contact on only 10.9% balls in play. Just as concerning is the fact that Gray has just a 7.3 SwStr% through his three starts (lowest in his career) and a 10.6 K% (also the lowest). If Gray doesn’t make some significant changes he’s bound to run out of luck soon.
Other tagged players: Ketel Marte, Kole Calhoun, Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker
Really Good Hitting Weather
Using Weather Edge, I realized we have some really good hitting weather in New York tonight. With 20% HR increase and 10% total runs increase, I really like the Nationals against Matz. We have a lot of power options from the left side and the right side of the plate. Castro, Soto, Kendrick, Suzuki, and Harrison all have an ISO over .200 against left-handed pitching since the start of 2019. Matz isn’t a big strikeout guy, so I don’t mind using some of these lefties to make your stack different. Castro, Soto, and Kendrick are staples in this stack for me tonight.
Other tagged players: Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick Low Owned Tournament Stack
If McCullers keeps leaving pitches over the middle of the plate, the Giants could crush on this slate. I think the Giants come in at really low ownership and make for a great leverage stack if McCullers is going to be popular. If McCullers has better command, this stack probably doesn’t do well, but in large field tournaments, it’s worth a look on this slate. Lance McCullers has thrown his curveball 37% of the time through three starts this season. Hitters have a .571 wOBA with a .625 ISO against it. The top six hitters in the projected lineup have a 40%+ hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Alex Dickerson, Donovan Solano Great Matchup For Left-Handed Power Bats
Perdomo is going to open and go one to two innings for the Padres tonight. The great news for the Dodgers tonight, Quantrill is going to be the long reliver that comes in to throw a bulk of the innings. Quantrill has a .351 wOBA with a .197 ISO and a 46.1% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters since the start of the 2019 season. He has a really low strikeout rate against left-handed hitters as well. I really like the power lefties in this lineup, and I really hope Rios cracks the lineup tonight. Pederson, Muncy, and Bellinger all have an ISO over .260 against right-handed pitching since the start of 2019.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Edwin Rios