DFS Alerts
Let's See How This Works Out
I don’t want to play Matt Kemp, and I know you really don’t either. With that said, this price in Coors makes a ton of sense. He’s 6 for 17 to start the season, and I’m hoping they continue to throw him in the lineup with his hot bat. Gausman has good games from time to time, but he typically only throws two pitches. A two-pitch mix is likely not going to do well for him, and on a slate where we need some value, I’m willing to roll the dice on any of these Coors bats.
Hard Throwing Lefty
Luzardo is the top prospect in the Oakland organization, and is one of my favorite cheap pitching options for tournaments. He’s shown big upside with his 96+ mph fastball, and above average slider. He had good command at both AAA and the Majors in a same sample size last season. The Texas Rangers have been hit or miss against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2019 season. The projected lineup has five hitters with a strikeout rate over 20% against left-handed pitching in that span. I don’t think he will pitch too deep in this game, but I do think he has some really strong upside.
Cheap Across The Industry
With very few options on this slate, Starlin Castro really stands out to me. Matz is an average pitcher, but one of the few options to pick on today. He has a .198 ISO with a 36.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching since the start of 2019. He does have a 22.7% strikeout rate against righties in that span. Castro has a .220 ISO with a .384 wOBA and a 15.7% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since the start of 2019. He also has a 52.1% hard-hit rate against lefties in that span.
Jeff McNeil (back) scratched Monday; J.D. Davis replaces
McNeil has been scratched from the New York Mets’ original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Atlanta Braves due to lower back stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by J.D. Davis, who will now play left field and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Michael Conforto up two spots to second and Robinson Cano up to fourth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Mets lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Mike Soroka on the road this evening.
As reported by: Mike Puma via Twitter Other tagged players: J.D. Davis
Fill The Tough Position
I’ve switched the Core Tags around this afternoon after lineups have come out and left us with a lack of options at shortstop. Neither Gleyber Torres or Jorge Polanco are playing tonight, leaving Trevor Story all alone at the top of the shortstop ranks. If positions didn’t matter, I’d prefer a couple other Coors Field bats in the outfield, but with this player pool, I am focusing on the shortstop.
Nick Senzel (finger) scratched Monday
Senzel has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to a finger injury. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Christian Colon, who will now play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Freddy Galvis up one spot to seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Red lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Zach Plesac at home this evening.
As reported by: Mark Sheldon via Twitter The Mariners have a team 26.2 K% this season
Frankie Montas was in the midst of a breakout season in 2019 before a PED suspension ended it. He struck out five of 18 Angels in his return, but experienced a velocity drop in his second outing, whiffing just three of 21 Rockies. His 10.5 SwStr% is in line with last season. Additionally, Montas’s 49.4 GB% last season helped him to 4.2% Barrels/BBE. So far this year, he has just a 28 GB%. Never the less, Montas is probably your best bet on a middle of the board pitcher tonight. There are certainly some strikeouts in this lineup for Montas. The Mariners have a 103 wRC+ this season, but with a 26.2 K%. Montas costs $7.7K on Fanduel.
Alex Dickerson is in a smash spot at a reasonable price ($3.2K FD) at Coors
Chi Chi Gonzalez made 12 starts for the Rockies last year for some reason. He somehow generated just 5.6% Barrels/BBE, but still managed a .349 xwOBA with an ERA and estimators all above five due to a 4.7 K-BB% and he still managed a 17.7 HR/FB. The Giants have been swinging the bats well so far. They have just a 9.5 HR/FB, but get the ultimate park upgrade. LHBs had a .362 wOBA (.386 xwOBA) against Gonzalez last year and a mark that stands at .338 for his career. The Giants are implied for 6.3 runs tonight and Alex Dickerson has been a potent bat against RHP since the start of last season (127 wRC+, .230 ISO). He’s started this year off strong as well (161 wRC+ overall). Dickerson won’t suffer much of a price increase either. He costs just $3.2K on FanDuel.
Mitch Garver costs just $2.5K on FanDuel vs Derek Holland
Derek Holland is a pitcher to attack on Monday night. He was effective in his first start against the Brewers, striking out five of 21 batters, allowing two runs on just two hits, a home run and three walks. His 11.1 SwStr% was exactly the same as last year’s mark. Pittsburgh is a great park for him, as he generated just one-third of his contact on the ground and the Milwaukee lineup just doesn’t scream right-handed power this year. The Twins in Minnesota are an entirely different story, however. Hollland allowed 12.2% Barrels/BBE last year and a 91 mph aEV, leading to a .347 xwOBA. His xwOBA in his first game this year: .363. In addition, RHBs have a .400 wOBA/xwOBA against Holland since the start of last season and a .349 wOBA against him for his career. Somehow, Mitch Garver (199 wRC+, .400 ISO vs LHP since last season) is just $2.5K on FanDuel. Load up on Twins with a 5.8 implied run line tonight.
Jacob deGrom is throwing even harder this year (99 mph avg velocity)
Jacob deGrom struck out just four of 21 Boston batters in his second start, allowing two runs through six innings, but more importantly, he worked his way up to 88 pitches and should be ready to hit 100 tonight in Altanta. Not only did deGrom hold his velocity spike from his first start, but he was throwing even harder! His average fastball velocity through two starts is now an even 99 mph, up 1.8 mph from last season. His 16.9 SwStr% is 1.5 points higher than 2019 as well. His .245 xwOBA is nine points below his actual results from last year. DeGrom had a 26.2 K-BB% last year and 26.3% through two starts now. He’ll get another shot at an Atlanta offense, whose overall 103 wRC+ this year is the same as their mark against RHP last year. This is a quality lineup, but there are outs in the latter half of it. In addition, the Braves have a team 29.8 K% this year that’s highest on the board tonight. DeGrom costs $300 less than Gerrit Cole on FanDuel.
Aaron Hicks has increased value tonight (.350+ wOBA vs Arrieta since 2017)
Arrieta was a below average pitcher last year, although he was able to keep the ball on the ground over 50% of the time (51.4%). Bone chips were blamed, but he’s been on the decline for a number of years now. His ERA and FIP have increased four straight seasons. The fact that he hasn’t appeared in a major league game in almost a year can’t help either. The Yankee offense has picked right up where it left off last year with a 130 wRC+ and 26.6 HR/FB. They had a 19.9 HR/FB at home last year. Arreita’s ground ball lean should help him a bit here. Even with his struggles last year, he held RHBs to a wOBA/xwOBA below .300 with a 58.5 GB%. Lefties smashed him though (.387 wOBA, .405 xwOBA) and it wasn’t just the injury. They were above a .350 wOBA against him in both 2017 and 18 as well. This makes Aaron Hicks potentially the top value in the Yankee lineup. He has a 114 wRC+ and .256 ISO vs RHP since last year and costs below $3K on FanDuel tonight and bats third for an offense tied for the top implied run line outside Coors (5.8) tonight.
So Much To Love
Mitch Garver is one of the best hitting catchers in the league on any slate, but tonight, everything is going in his favor. He’s facing a fly ball lefty, he’s hitting leadoff for one of the top teams on the slate, and dirt cheap on FD, and he’s catcher eligible on DK and Yahoo. In 2019, Garver was second on this loaded Twins team with a .379 ISO against lefties with 56% hard hits and 51% fly balls.
Chalky Or Not, I Want Some
I am really intrigued to see where ownership falls on Monday’s slate. Upon first glance I was sure that Rockies would be extremely chalky but I am hearing an awful lot of Twins buzz which makes me think they could soak up some of Colorado’s ownership. I would gladly welcome any sort of ownership discount on a Rockies stack as they currently have a monster 7.1 implied run total and should have no problem teeing off on Johnny Cueto and the Giants bullpen. Cueto has unsurprisingly struggled to start the season and is pretty clearly someone we want to target aggressively at this stage of his career.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl
Low Owned Stack With Power Upside
Full transparency: I think I am a bit of a sucker for this Mets lineup. The loss of Yoenis Cespedes definitely hurts but the Mets lineup is still riddled with power against RHP with five hitters in its projected lineup posting ISO’s of .217 or better over the last two seasons. Mike Soroka has been solid to start the season but appears to be getting a bit lucky, with just an 18.7% strikeout rate and only generating soft contact on 9.7% of balls in play. I expect Mets players to see single-digit ownership on this slate and think they make for a strong sneaky stack with plenty of power upside. If you’re not sold on a full out Mets stack, grabbing 1-3 power bats as part of a secondary stack makes a lot of sense as well.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo Smashy Smash
We’ve got four offenses that stand out above the crowd tonight with Coors Field, the Yankees and the Twins. You can make a case for any of the top bats on any of those teams, but I’ll start with the video game power of Nelson Cruz against the fly balls and hard contact allowed by Derek Holland. In 2019, Cruz obliterated lefties to the tune of a .476 ISO on 56% hard hits. He’s right back above a 50% hard hit rate to start this season, making us all proud to be old people!