DFS Alerts
Awful Pitching Slate, Part I
Oh, my. This slate is… something. Three Sunday games have been postponed thanks to COVID, and there are more late afternoon games than usual for a Sunday. That leaves us with just six games on the main slate on both FD & DK. Jon Lester is the most expensive pitcher on FD and the second most expensive on DK. Jon Lester! He’s in his 15th MLB season! Expect a slate that is absolutely loaded with offense and upside. Civale is the top arm on the slate in terms of skill set, and he pitched well against the White Sox in his 2020 debut. I expect his strikeout rate to tick upward this year, and he definitely has the highest ceiling on the board today. That makes him a fine option on a slate where we have no pitcher slated to crack 15 DK or 25 FD points in our projections. The matchup is awful, but nothing else stands out on this slate.
Kris Bryant (back) scratched Saturday; David Bote replaces
Bryant has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates due to lingering back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by David Bote, who will play third base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Ian Happ up eight spots to the leadoff position, respectively. However, the remainder of the Cubs lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Mitch Keller at home this evening.
As reported by: Gordon Wittenmyer via Twitter Other tagged players: David Bote
Chris Davis (knee) scratched Saturday; Pedro Severino replaces
Davis has been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to a sore knee but will still be available off the bench to pinch-hit. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Pedro Severino, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which slides Rio Ruiz down one spot to seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Orioles lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Tyler Glasnow at home this evening.
As reported by: Nathan Ruiz via Twitter Other tagged players: Pedro Severino Favorite Sneaky Stack
If you are looking for a team to stack that projects to see low single-digit ownership, the New York Mets are my favorite. I had high hopes for Braves’ starter Touki Toussaint but the reality is he hasn’t really been able to piece everything together in the Majors. Toussaint carried his Big League struggles over into this season as he allowed 6 ER over 2.2 IP in his first appearance of the year against the Rays. This Mets team is absolutely loaded with power upside, with five hitters in their projected lineup owning ISO’s of .240 or better against RHP over the last two seasons.
Other tagged players: Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes
Oakland is a great stack today!
I love how Oakland profiles against the left-handed Kikuchi. Khris Davis has not been off to a good start, but if there is ever a perfect matchup by the numbers, tonight is the night. In 2019, Davis had a .380 OBP, .353 wOBA, and .279 ISO. Oakland has 5 strong right-handed batters that should give Kikuchi all kinds of problems, but don’t be afraid to use lefty Matt Olson on your stacks.
Potential Ownership Discount Due To Coors
It’s not often you can get an ownership discount on the New York Yankees in a favorable home matchup but that seems to be the case on Saturday. Due to heavy concentrated ownership expected in the SDP/COL game, Yankee hitters are currently project to see ownership in the low double-digits, which is frankly too low for a matchup against Zack Godley.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez Early Adapters
One of the biggest remaining edges in DFS is adapting to new information more quickly than your competitors. It’s also important to be able to distinguish between noise and a change leading to legitimate success. I’ll be honest, in Tyler Chatwood’s case, it’s very possible his first start of the season against the Brewers – where he posted a 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 K line – is simply an outlier. However, there’s reason to believe his success could be sustainable as Chatwood’s stellar outing can at least be partially attributed to a heavier reliance on his Cutter, a pitch he has only thrown 9.3% of the time throughout his career. In his start against the Brewers, Chatwood threw his Cutter 30% of the time, and drew a 23.8% whiff rate on it. It will be interesting to see how often Chatwood deploys his Cutter against the Pirates on Saturday, but either way they represent a favorable matchup for him, which keeps him in the conversation for GPP’s by itself.
Value GPP Pitching Options
You’ll need to save at the pitching position if you’re looking to maximize your exposure to Coors field in tournaments. Yusei Kikuchi and Drew Smyly are my favorite value saving options, with Smyly drawing the better matchup of the two. While Kikuchi struggled in his first start of the season in a tough matchup against the Astros, I will be eagerly watching him against the A’s to see if he’s able to sustain the increase in fastball velocity he showed in his first start. With so many starting pitchers struggling with velocity to start the season, it was notable that Yusei Kikuchi averaged 95.67 mph on his fourseamer in his first start. For comparison, Kikuchi averaged 92-93 mph on that pitch last season.
Other tagged players: Drew Smyly Still Too Cheap on DK
I don’t think you need to go overboard on the Astros tonight, but this is certainly a spot where you can pick and choose some value. Michael Brantley is still free on DraftKings and will once again be a core play. You simply can’t ignore a sub-$3,000 bat on DK that is hitting cleanup for a dangerous offense, especially now that DraftKings has otherwise tightened up their pricing very well. Brantley has a solid career profile against RHP, has more walks than strikeouts so far this season, and has a .478 wOBA over the first seven games. Why is he $2,900 on DK?
Thriving With His New Team
Oh, Tommy Pham. This is one player that I wish the Cardinals never would have let go. He is going to crush it in San Diego. He also hit a big home run late in last night’s game, and he owns a career .384 wOBA against left-handed pitching. This is without considering that he now gets to hit in Coors Field out of an elite lineup spot with a ton of protection. The ceiling is massive here.
Lock Him In At Home vs. a LHP
We all know his splits at home against lefties. Arenado will always take the cake for me at home against a mediocre lefty. He owns career splits that are simply absurd in these spots, with a .369 batting average, .483 wOBA, .373 ISO, and 1.180 OPS at home against southpaws. He’s my top bat on this slate and the first one that I would prioritize from the Coors Field game.
Back to Full Health
In terms of safety and upside relative to salary, Carrasco checks in as the best pitcher on this slate. Again, most teams are hitting the back end of their rotations right now, meaning our options are very slim today. Carrasco’s skills are ace-level when he is healthy, and all indications are that he is right now. He looked dominant in his first start of the year, where he dazzled over six strong innings with ten strikeouts. He has posted a swinging strike rate of at least 12% in every season since 2014, so we know that the stuff is there. The only issue tonight comes in a matchup against the dangerous, power laden Minnesota lineup. We saw what they can do to good pitchers, as they gave Clevinger fits in the early innings last night. However, Shane Bieber held them in check on Thursday. On a slate with a lot of pitching options, I could understand the logic behind completely fading Carrasco. Given the context of this slate, I don’t think that’s possible — Carrasco has to be considered as a top arm on this slate.
An Electric Right Arm
It has never been about the “stuff” for Tyler Glasnow. It has always been about his health. After posting a strikeout rate around 20% in his first taste of the major leagues with the Pirates, Tyler Glasnow has seen a steady increase in his strikeout numbers. He posted a 29% strikeout rate in 2018 and a 33% strikeout rate in 2019. He srruck out nine batters over four innings in his first start of 2020. When healthy, his stuff is as good as any pitcher in baseball, and the rest of the league is about to find out just how good he is. The matchup against the Orioles is about as favorable as one can get, making Glasnow an elite option here. The pitch count is a mild concern, as he threw only 72 pitches in his first start. I would expect the Rays to let him get to the 80-85 range tonight, which is more than enough for him to have safety and upside in a great matchup. He is my favorite GPP pitcher tonight.
Mark Canha hammered RHP last year (160 wRC+, .251 ISO)
Taijuan Walker struggled with just one strikeout on a 4.5 SwStr% in Houston first time out this year. He allowed five earned runs in 3.1 innings, facing just 17 batters. His average velocity (92.8 mph) was down over a mile and a half from 2018 (just one start last year). Loading up on some Oakland bats here makes some sense, but in particular, Mark Canha has been batting in the middle of the lineup and costs less than $3K on FanDuel. He torched same handed pitching last year (160 wRC+, .251 ISO) and is off to a nice overall start this year with a 130 wRC+. The A’s have a healthy 5.25 implied run line.
Darvish faces the worst offense on the board (52 wRC+) with wind blowing in at Wrigley
Yu Darvish did not walk a batter or surrender a HR, while striking out five of the 20 Brewers he faced in his season debut, but three of his six hits came across the plate in four innings. With a 15.1 SwStr% and 95.2 mph fastball (up 0.9 mph), there’s not much to worry about. It was a tale of two seasons in 2019 as Darvish overcame a flurry of walks and HRs to dominate in the second half. Altogether he had a 3.98 ERA, 3.55 SIERA, 2.69 DRA, and .295 xwOBA. So far, it looks encouraging that we may see second half Darvish again despite the poor results. The Pirates own a board low 52 wRC+ on the season with a much higher strikeout rate (25.8%) than last year as well. Only Colin Moran has really been swinging the bat well (214 wRC+). Add the wind blowing in to Pittsburgh’s lack of power (11.6 HR/FB in 2020, 11.9 HR/FB vs RHP last year) and Darvish is one of your top pitchers on Friday night as just the fourth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.1K).