DFS Alerts
Five of the last 47 Twins to face Reynaldo Lopez have homered
Reynaldo Lopez has garnered some attention in the second half of the season with a velocity and strikeout rate increase (23.5% since the break), sporting a matching 3.93 ERA and 3.90 FIP over 12 starts. Normalize the 9.8 HR/FB though and the xFIP still sits at 4.77 over this span and Lopez has hardly been consistent. In road starts against the Angels, Twins and Braves since the middle of August, Lopez has allowed at least five runs, while the Royals hit the ball out of the park four times against him in his last start. Five of the 47 Twins he’s faced have homered against him this year. That’s an average of one HR each trip through the lineup. This Minnesota lineup is incredibly difficult to navigate (112 wRC+, 21.3 K% and 25.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP are all splits that are either best or second best on the board tonight). The projected lineup features six batters above a .340 wOBA and also six above a .200 ISO vs RHP this season and has the fourth best implied run line on the board tonight at 5.83. While LHBs (.365 wOBA, .346 xwOBA) have hit Lopez better than RHBs (.327 wOBA, .320 xwOBA) this year, five of his eight HRs allowed post-break have been surrendered to RHBs in a nearly equal amount of PAs. Nelson Cruz (147 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP this year), Mitch Garver (118 wRC+, .281 ISO), Jorge Polanco (140 wRC+, .212 ISO) and either Max Kepler (118 wRC+, .281 ISO) or whoever’s in the leadoff spot would be most interesting here.
Other tagged players: Mitch Garver, Reynaldo Lopez, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
Matchup Makes The Difference
Stephen Strasburg is the best pitcher on this slate, and Robbie Ray is the other pitcher with ace strikeout upside. However, with salary, matchup and consistency factored in, I’ve got Jose Berrios at the top of my list tonight. He is at home against the high strikeout, low walk White Sox who lack the left-handed power to cause him much trouble. Berrios doesn’t have quite the same ceiling as Strasburg and Ray, but he is considerably cheaper than Straburg in a better matchup and a more trustable skill set with his control than Ray.
Late Night Hammer
While Coors Field steals the headlines, don’t forget about the last game of the night in Oakland. The powerful A’s lineup faces a low strikeout pitcher in Glenn Sparkman, who has shown no ability to induce soft contact or keep the ball on the ground. The Oakland Matt’s, Olson and Chapman have as much power as anyone. While Olson is priced up similarly to Coors bats, Matt Chapman comes at a very useful discount.
The Easiest Way To Get In Play
The Coors Field game is at the top of the charts tonight, but the big bats for both teams are appropriately priced and tough to fit. Enter Ian Desmond, who comes at a fraction of the cost of teammates Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, as well as Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto on the other side. While Desmond isn’t the same caliber of hitter overall, against lefties, he can compete with those bigger names. His .297 ISO and 41% hard hits against LHP make him look underpriced in comparison to the rest of this game.
Top Pitcher
This slate for pitching is not a great one. Jose Quintana is the guy i prefer as my SP1 in GPP. He is a guy who we have seen at times this year have big strikeout performances and they will let him pitch deep into games. In four games this year against the Pirates Quintana is averaging 26 DK points, 4 wins, 28 strikeouts in 27 innings pitched. Quintana has shown that he can dominate this matchup so I will roll with it again.
Sneaky One Off
Wade Miley has struggled in his last 2 games pitched giving up 12 runs. Hunter Dozier against lefties has a 282 ISO, 405 wOBA, 62% hard hit rate. Miley has pitched well overall this year, nut he could finally be slowing down a little. i expect Dozier to be low owned in this matchup against Miley.
Stack of The day
Baltimore Orioles get the best matchup against Edwin Jackson. Jackson is just be horrible this season to both side of the plate. In his last 4 games he has given up 5 home runs and 22 runs. He is a low strikeout pitcher giving up 46% hard hit rate. Baltimore is not the best lineup in the league but they could easily win in this matchup.
Other tagged players: Renato Nunez, Jonathan Villar, Anthony Santander Jose Quintana is another viable arm on the main slate
Quintana has had quite the up and down season in 2019. He started off well with a 3.24 xFIP and 20.9% K-BB through April, then posted a combined 4.97 xFIP and 9.7% K-BB from May through July. Since August 1st Quintana has pitched well again, posting a 3.30 ERA / 3.55 xFIP with a 20% K-BB and 1.15 WHIP. Quintana gets a matchup this afternoon vs. the Pirates, who have been slightly below average with a 95 wRC+ and just a 17.7% K rate over the past 30 days. They have posted a league-worst 75 wRC+ with a 22% K rate vs. LHP in 2019 though, and without Josh Bell and Starling Marte in their lineup today they will have just 3 batters who have an xwOBA greater than .290 vs. LHP on the year. Quintana is not the most ideal option given the inconsistency, but he does have a nice matchup today and there isn’t much else to choose from on this slate. Quintana will likely see decently high ownership across all contests. One thing to note here is that there are pretty strong winds blowing straight out in Wrigley and WeatherEdge projects a very large bump in offense this afternoon. The Pirates are really lacking pop without Bell and Marte in the lineup so it’s possible they are unable to take advantage. They currently have a 4.49 implied total vs. Quintana and the Cubs.
Jason Vargas has 5.99 xFIP and 5.5% K-BB since joining the Phillies
Jason Vargas has somehow posted a 4.31 ERA this year, but has a 5.47 xFIP, 5.31 SIERA and 8.9% K-BB with a 1.34 WHIP, 39.1% hard contact rate and 9.6% SwStr. He’s also averaging just 84.5 MPH on his fastball. Over the last 30 days, Vargas has allowed a 5.63 ERA and 5.62 xFIP with a 1.71 WHIP. Vargas gets a matchup with the Red Sox this afternoon, who could be a slightly contrarian play here as they have gone completely cold over the past 2 weeks (61 wRC+) which is likely due at least in part to a .256 BABIP over that time frame. JD Martinez (.497 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Xander Bogaerts (.365), Andrew Benintendi (.332), Sam Travis (.325), Rafael Devers (.316) and Christian Vasquez (.297) are all in play here. Benintendi looks like a great value even without the platoon advantage, as he is leading off and costs just $2.8k on Fanduel and $4k on DK. Red Sox hitters are more affordable on Fanduel where all their bats are $2.8k or less besides Bogaerts ($3.7k), Devers ($3.6k) and Martinez ($4.3k). The Red Sox currently have a solid 5.25 implied total.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Sam Travis Lefty Masher Facing Subpar Southpaw
Vargas continues to do enough to not get lit up, which is my hesitation playing Red Sox bats against him. At the same time, this is someone who has a below-average strikeout rate (18.4%) and an above-average hard hit rate (39%). My primary targets here are J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. Martinez has a massive .496 ISO against left-handed pitching this season and is a core play for me on this slate, while Bogaerts has a .267 ISO versus southpaws.
Risky Pitching In Elite Matchup
It feels super weird to love Asher Wojciechowski in this spot, but the bottom line is that pitching is so gross that I have no problem using The Big Woj in this spot. Yes, he has a 2.15 HR/9 ratio and can get lit up with the best of them, but he gets a juicy matchup against the Tigers, who lead the Majors in K% against right-handed pitching. Woj also has some strikeout upside, holding a 23.1 K% this season. The caveat here is that he had his start pushed back from Saturday to Sunday in an effort to manage his workload. He also only threw 58 pitches in his last start, so it’s unclear if the Orioles are being cautious with his pitch count here. Pitching is bad enough where I am viewing him as my preferred SP2 in cash games for two-pitcher sites, but it comes with risk.
Lone Ace
Bieber is by far the top arm on this slate with a 31.1 K%. Bieber has to face a Twins offense that ranks 2nd in team ISO against right-handed pitching and just 25th in K%. Bieber also has home run issues at times, boasting a 1.24 HR/9 ratio. The bottom line for me is this – while Bieber has a tough matchup on paper, I think he’s still the cash game SP1 on all formats. He’s so far away and the best arm on this slate that I’ll take my chances on him in a tough spot and hope his strikeout upside comes through.
Yanks lineup has value and upside in Toronto vs. Zeuch
Despite getting a good matchup in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre versus an unproven pitcher, Yankees bats are very affordable this afternoon. They’ll face T.J. Zeuch, who posted a 3.69 ERA / 5.38 xFIP with a 2.1% K-BB in AAA. Zeuch supposedly excels at inducing weak contact, which makes sense given his low ERA despite a terrible K-BB%, as well as his ridiculously high groundball rates in the minors. Maybe that’s sustainable in the minors, but I’m not sure a 2.1% K-BB will play in the MLB, especially against the free-swinging Yankees. Aaron Judge (.373 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Gio Urshela (.371), Luke Voit (.365), DJ LeMahieu (.362), Gleyber Torres (.342), Clint Frazier (.319), Brett Gardner (.316) and Didi Gregorius (.296) are all in play today vs. Zeuch. On Draftkings, all Yankee bats are $4.7k or less. With the exception of Aaron Judge, they are all less than $4.2k on Fanduel. LeMahieu (projected to leadoff, $3.8k on FD, $4.3k on DK) and Voit (projected to bat 5th, $3.7k on FD, $4.3k on DK) both stand out as great values. The Yankees currently have a 6.15 implied total, 2nd highest on the main slate.
Other tagged players: Clint Frazier, DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius, Luke Voit, Gio Urshela Michael Wacha is a solid option on dry main slate
The main slate is incredibly dry at pitcher today, so we really have to get creative here as there isn’t much to choose from. Michael Wacha has been pretty mediocre again this year – 4.97 ERA / 4.79 xFIP / 5.03 SIERA, 9.3% K-BB, 1.55 WHIP, 47.6% GB rate and 9.4% SwStr. However, he has been pitching much better over the past month, putting up a 2.91 ERA, 3.99 SIERA and 3.72 xFIP with a 26.7% K Rate, 7.8% BB Rate and 1.20 WHIP. Wacha is pitching at home this afternoon vs. the Brewers, who are not a dangerous offense without Christian Yelich and away from Miller Park. Without Yelich, the Brewers only have 3 hitters who have a wRC+ vs. RHP greater than 100 on the year. Wacha will also have the advantage of a very pitcher friendly umpire in Phil Cuzzi. Wacha is below $7500 on both major sites and will likely be a popular option today given that there is just nothing to choose from at SP. The Brewers currently have a 4.27 implied total vs. Wacha and the Cards.
Matchup + Context
Initially, I was on Cease as my top overall option as a way to fit in higher-priced bats but am tempering expectations a bit with Seattle running a lineup with seven left-handed bats in it. Merrill Kelly is the guy I’m looking to now as a cheap alternative that draws a strong home matchup against the Reds and will have the benefit of pitcher-friendly umpire Mike Estabrook calling balls and strikes.
