DFS Alerts
Six of nine Rangers tonight have a 26+ K% vs LHP this year
John Means has gone seven innings in back to back starts, allowing a total of three runs without a walk and 11 strikeouts. He’s more contact management (31.1% 95+ mph EV, 6.6% Barrels/BBE) than strikeouts (19.2%), but his 9.6 HR/FB is quite the accomplishment in a season when Baltimore pitching has shattered the previous HR record, even if it’s probably not sustainable in this environment. Thus, his 3.55 ERA is quite a bit lower than estimators (4.40 FIP, 4.65 DRA, .304 xwOBA), but he’s still likely at least an average arm. That puts him in a great spot tonight at a low price on DraftKings ($6.1K). Outside of a short stretch post-All-Star game, the Rangers have been terrible against LHP this year (83 wRC+, 26.3 K%). Six of the nine batters in tonight’s lineup are above a 26 K% vs LHP this year. Over the last week, the Rangers have just a 59 wRC+, 19 K-BB% and 10.9 HR/FB. Baltimore is not a pitcher friendly park, but Means is far too cheap in this spot.
Kolby Allard has allowed just 2.5% Barrels/BBE with a 29.2 IFFB%
Kolby Allard has allowed two runs over his last 13 innings with 12 Ks. He’s somehow managed to allow just one HR through five starts without pitching in a single power suppressing environment. This is not sustainable, even with 2.5% Barrels/BBE, but he’s induced a 29.2 IFFB% along with a 15.1 K-BB%. Estimators match a 4.33 ERA, while his wOBA and xwOBA also match at .292. Allard is on the road in another power friendly environment, but he’s also facing a very poor offense. The Orioles have a 92 wRC+ and 18.2 K-BB% vs LHP. They do have a few bats in the lineup with some power vs LHP, but he’s actually been slightly better against RHBs, holding them to a wOBA and xwOBA below .280 and there are certainly some strikeouts in this lineup. Allard won’t sustain his extremely low HR rate, but this may not be the spot where you’d expect regression to crash in on him either. He’s faced at least 24 batters in each of his last four starts and is reasonably priced at $7.7K on either site.
He Means Business
It’s never exciting playing an Orioles pitcher, especially at home, but John Means continues to quietly roll along, piling up innings and easy outs. After a short downturn, he’s gone right back to form with back to back seven inning outing with his excellent control and limited hard contact. While strikeouts aren’t his game, this Rangers team offers a lot of K upside to lefties.
Sneaky Shootout
The Marlins and Pirates are not the most exciting teams in the league, but there are some bats in this game with strong matchups against attackable pitchers. The standouts here are the Pirates lefties against Elieser Hernandez. Hernandez has been good against righties, but has managed just 18.7% K to lefties with fly balls and hard hits leading to a .336 ISO against. Both Josh Bell and Bryan Reynolds come in with hard hit rates above 45% against righties as well as keeping the platoon edge against the bullpen with their switch-hitting.
Other tagged players: Bryan Reynolds Start of MIN-BOS will be delayed due to inclement weather Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox on Wednesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather currently approaching the area. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Red Sox have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez and Jose Berrios not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes the probability of an additional in-game delay is minimal and this contest should play through to conclusion following first pitch.
As reported by: the Boston Red Sox via Twitter Other tagged players: Jose Berrios
Nick Senzel scratched Wednesday; Phillip Ervin replaces
Senzel has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Phillip Ervin, who will now play right field and slot directly into Senzel’s vacated sixth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Reds lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Aaron Nola at home this evening.
As reported by: Bobby Nightengale via Twitter Other tagged players: Phillip Ervin The Rockies have a 74 wRC+ and 19.7 K-BB% on the road
Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 18 runs over his last 14.2 innings. He was always due some major regression and has faced three quality offenses against LHP over that span (Braves, Yankees, Diamondbacks). The Colorado Rockies are certainly not that (90 wRC+, 25.3 K% vs LHP) and even worse on the road (74 wRC+, 19.7 K-BB%). The Rockies did touch up Ryu for seven runs at Coors in late June, but he also shut them out for six innings there just five starts back with another quality start at home earlier in the season. While Ryu strikes out batters at just an average rage (21.9%), exceptional control (3.2 BB%) and strong contact management (85.3 mph aEV, 4.9% Barrels/BBE) with a 50.1 GB% have supported his 2.35 ERA that’s still well below his 3.85 SIERA and even 2.91 DRA. But estimators along with a .283 xwOBA confirm he’s still been a quality pitcher. In this spot, he may not be a bit undervalued. Ryu costs $9.2K or less on either site on a board where Shane Bieber is the only really high priced stand out arm at a cost of more than $2K more. Recent struggles could help drop Ryu’s ownership, but there’s a good chance of a bounce back in a much better spot.
Antonio Senzatela has a .381 road xwOBA
Dodger Stadium is one of the most negative run environments in all of baseball, but with the weather cooling, that doesn’t seem as much of an offensive handicap tonight, as Weather Edge (premium subscription required) suggests not too many environments get an run scoring boost tonight. Then there’s Antonio Senzatela, who faces a ferocious Dodger offense (116 wRC+, 10.2 K-BB%, 18 HR/FB vs RHP) with the worst K-BB (1.7%) and Z-Contact (91.7%) on the board. Over the last month, it gets even worse (7.9 K%, .365 xwOBA). If you think this is mostly a product of Coors, he has a .381 xwOBA on the road this year as well. Once again, despite the negative run environment, the Dodgers have a 6.31 implied run line that leads the board and might give someone the wrong impression that this game is being played at Coors. With the exceptions of Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Cody Bellinger (171 wRC+, .348 ISO) firmly entrenched in the three and four spots, this lineup is generally pretty fluid. Considering the .390 wOBA and .367 xwOBA RHBs have against Senzatela over the last 12 months, any left-handed bats that appear in this lineup are likely fine plays. Gavin Lux still costs less than $4K on DraftKIngs and just $2.5K on FanDuel. Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .315 ISO) has a 338 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Gavin Lux, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Antonio Senzatela Edwin Jackson has a .402 xwOBA and 11.7% Barrels/BBE, both worst on the board
Edwin Jackson has the worst HR/FB (25.4%), FIP (7.53), DRA (8.99), xwOBA (.402) and Barrels/BBE (11.7%) on the board. The evidence is sufficient enough to conclude that this pitcher gets hit hard on a consistent basis. The problem would be that the Royals have an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and 9.4 HR/FB at home in a power suppressing park. But it doesn’t necessarily suppress run scoring. In fact, at 5.8 implied runs, the Royals are the third best offense on the board tonight. While the overall numbers are pretty terrible, there a few Kansas City bats that merit some attention. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against Jackson over the last calendar year. Good news for same-handed batters like Whit Merrifield (112 wRC+, .143 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Hunter Dozier (121 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Jorge Soler (133 wRC+, .299 ISO). From the left side, Alex Gordon (91 wRC+, .150 ISO) and Ryan O’Hearn (90 wRC+, .202 ISO) may be worth a look as well. Both are below $4K on DraftKings with the latter owning a 290 wRC+ (53.9 Hard%) over the last week with a price below $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jorge Soler, Edwin Jackson, Whit Merrifield, Alex Gordon, Ryan O'Hearn Trevor Williams has the top matchup on the board (Marlins 18.9 K-BB%, 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP)
Trevor Williams has just an 11.7 K% with a 7.20 ERA and 6.15 SIERA over the last month. However, he’s allowed just three runs over his last 13 innings with one of those starts at Coors and has a 9.0 SwStr% to go with that minuscule strike out rate in August. There’s no argument to be made that he’s actually been good this year. His ERA and all non-FIP estimators are above five along with a .342 xwOBA as his contact management has regressed back to the league average this season (87.5 mph aEV, 7.9% Barrels/BBE). That’s generally not going to cut it with a 17.3 K% in this era. However, Williams also has the absolute top park and weather adjusted matchup on the board by a fairly wide margin. Along with a 66 wRC+ on the road, the Marlins have a 75 wRC+, 18.9 K-BB% and 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP. Over the last week, they have lowest wRC+ (51) and highest strikeout rate (34.1%) on the board. Williams costs just $6.6K on DraftKings tonight.
Pirates have a team 139 wRC+, 16.6 K% and 21.4 HR/FB over the last seven days
Robert Dugger did not allow an earned run, striking out seven Reds through seven innings in his second major league start. He allowed two HRs, walking four Mets in his first one. The 24 year-old is not considered a high value prospect (40 Future Value, #27 org via Fangraphs) with the slider (55) being projected as his only above average attribute. In 10 starts at AAA, he struck out 19.9% (13 K-BB%) with a 37.5 GB%, 7.59 ERA and 6.05 xFIP. These don’t exactly seem like numbers that merit a promotion and his 91.8 mph aEV through two major league starts doesn’t imply much disagreement. The Pirates are the most contact prone offense on the board (102 wRC+, 18.7 K% vs RHP) and also one of the hottest (139 wRC+, 16.6 K%, 21.4 HR/FB last seven days). Ultra-small sample size alert, but LHBs have a .374 xwOBA against Dugger so far with a 62.5 Hard%. The Pirates (5.14) are one of seven teams above five implied runs with the remaining nine teams below 4.5, which puts them in a very interesting spot tonight. The projected lineup for Pittsburgh includes four LHBs, all above a 105 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Adam Frazier (106 wRC+, .154 ISO) would have more value at the top of the lineup, but Bryan Reynolds (153 wRC+, .201 ISO) and Josh Bell (161 wRC+, .331 ISO) should be a major part of the daily fantasy player lineup pool tonight. Colin Moran (110 wRC+, .184 ISO) has some value here too. While the park in Pittsburgh suppresses RH power, it plays much more neutrally for LHBs.
Other tagged players: Robert Dugger, Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier, Colin Moran Go Right Back Here Tonight
The Dodgers let us all down last night, but it was nothing more than BABIP fluke, and they face another dangerously low strikeout pitcher tonight in Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela has struck out just 25 lefties in 44 innings while walking 26 of them and allowing a .419 wOBA and .215 ISO. Cody Bellinger would be the top option here, but with salaries factored in, I’ll start with Corey Seager and his .230 ISO to be sure to get exposure to this Dodgers offense.
A Tier Of His Own
Shane Bieber is all alone at the top of the pitching ranks even before factoring in the matchup, which only pushes him further ahead. His 31% K rate is easily the highest on the slate, with his 3.30 SIERA being by far the best mark as well, thanks to his low 5% walks accompanying those strikeouts. Add in a White Sox team with the third highest strikeout rate in the league and the lowest walk rate to go with it, and this is safety worth paying for in cash games and upside worth chasing in tournaments.
Matchup Makes The Difference
There are several mid-range pitchers on this slate with better overall skills than Jake Junis, but a matchup against the Tigers is enough to push him to the top of the list, especially with some savings to top things off. There’s nothing great about Junis, but there’s also no clear weakness in his skill set with 21.5% K and 7.4% BB, which have both improved in the 2nd half of the season, up to 22.8% K and 6% BB. More important than his respectable skills are the numbers of the Tigers offense, whose active roster has the highest strikeout rate in the league against righties while ranking 29th in ISO and 30th in wOBA.
The Cover Your Eyes GPP Stack
The Giants are an abysmal offense, and they have scored just one run over the first two games of this series against the Cardinals. However, they draw a fine matchup here against Michael Wacha. Although Wacha was solid in his last start, he still has an ERA and SIERA over 5.00 for the year to go along with ugly peripherals… and he’s pitching on short rest. Yikes. I’ll prioritize the lefty power here, with Belt, Dickerson, and Yaz offering the most upside out of this group.
Other tagged players: Alex Dickerson, Mike Yastrzemski