DFS Alerts

The Obvious Chalk Offense

The Dodgers are the obvious spot to go for offense tonight, as they have an implied team total north of six runs as of the time I am writing this. They face a low strikeout RHP in Senzatela, and these are the types of pitchers that the Dodgers generally tee off against. Joc Pederson is locked in right now, the newly promoted Gavin Lux remains a nice value, and you can consider any of the middle of the order hitters are part of a GPP stack.

Great Matchup Makes For Great Value

Junis is by no means a shutdown ace in the major leagues, but he’s a RHP facing the Tigers. Any time we have an affordable RHP facing the Tigers, we can press that value button. Detroit ranks near the bottom of the league in almost all metrics against righties, and they strike out at the highest rate in the league (27%). Junis is an average arm at best, but his affordable price makes him a fine salary saver as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites in this spot.

Miles Ahead of the Pack

If you are spending up at pitcher tonight, there is no elite choice other than Bieber. He draws a great matchup against a strikeout-happy White Sox team that has underwhelmed offensively all year long. Bieber’s numbers remain fantastic across the board with a 31% strikeout rate, a 5% walk rate, an a SIERA and xFIP in the low threes. There’s a great combination of safety and upside here, and with the slate not loaded with bats, I’ll prioritize spending up on Bieber in all formats.

Kris Bryant (knee) scratched Tuesday; Ian Happ replaces

Bryant has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Tuesday’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners due to left knee soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ian Happ, who will now play third base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Cubs batting order but, most notably, bumps Kyle Schwarber all the way up to second, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Chicago faces off against right-hander Felix Hernandez at home this evening.

Dylan Cease (9.4% Barrels/BBE) will have to deal with wind blowing out in Cleveland

Winds blowing out at a fairly decent strength to center (15 mph) in an already positive run environment could spell trouble for the rookie right-hander, who has struggled in his first 10 major league starts for the White Sox. Dylan Cease is a talented arm (50 Future Value grade via Fangraphs), but just hasn’t found it yet at the major league level. In addition to 22.8% of fly balls leaving the yard with 9.4% Barrels/BBE, Cease hasn’t helped his case with a 9.7 BB%. The Cleveland lineup for tonight features a combined average 9.1 BB% vs RHP this year, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Francisco Lindor (121 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Carlos Santana (132 wRC+, .253 ISO). Greg Allen (120 wRC+, .190 ISO) is your value bat for $3.5K on DK and just $100 over the minimum on FD. While LHBs have a wOBA 100 points higher than RHBs against Cease since debuting, xwOBA sees only one point of different at .337 and .338.

Lineup Gets Matchup Against Pitcher Making His MLB Debut

Cuban signee Ronald Bolanos is making his MLB debut for San Diego tonight, and while he is listed as a top prospect for the organization, any starter making his debut has a wider range of outcomes (and a higher possibility of getting blown up) than a veteran pitcher. Bolanos posted good but not spectacular numbers at AA this season, with a 4.23 ERA, 10.33 K/9, and 1.32 WHIP so it remains to be seen how ready he is for the majors. I’ll be targeting the hitters near the top of the Arizona lineup tonight, likely Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Josh Rojas.

Weather Conditions Ripe for Increased Runs

WeatherEdge is unambiguous on today’s conditions at Wrigley Field – the 72 most similar games with these conditions have seen a 59.7% increase in home runs and a 25.3% increase in total runs. With the Cubs strong -250 favorites in this game that features a run total of 10 (giving the Cubs a 6+ implied run total) I’ll be targeting the power hitters from the Chicago side – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber.

Two top offenses set up for a slug fest at Fenway tonight

Twins at Red Sox is likely to revert into a slugfest. While conditions are not expected to be as optimal for offense as some other spots tonight according to Weather Edge (premium subscription required), Fenway is the most positive run environment in play tonight and the Twins are starting a non-prospect 24 year-old rookie against a pitcher who has struggled all season.

Randy Dobnak had just an 8.8 K-BB% in 46 AAA innings before getting the call. He hasn’t walked any of the 37 batters he’s faced for the Twins, but has struck out just six with 41.9% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. He has generated a combined ground ball rate around 60% this year though. The Red Sox are the lowest of four teams above six implied runs though (6.14) and are an incredibly difficult matchup here with J.D. Martinez (283 wRC+, 47.1 Hard% last seven days) and Xander Bogaerts (303 wRC+, 70 Hard%) on fire. Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers join Bogearts above a 140 wRC+ and .230 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year.

The Twins are a bit lower on the board, but still at a healthy 5.36 implied runs that places them in the top third. Rick Porcello has just a 17.7 K% this year with an ERA, SIERA and DRA all above five. A reduced ground ball rate (37.5%) has led to 9.5% Barrels/BBE. 14 of his 26 HRs have come over his last 11 starts, beginning with that disaster in London. The projected lineup for the Twins features just one batter below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP (C.J. Cron 86) over the last calendar year and only two below a .195 ISO. Jorge Polanco (139 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Max Kepler (120 wRC+, .276 ISO) will face a pitcher who has generated a .344 wOBA and xwOBA against RHBs over the last 12 months.

Load Up The Late Night Hammer

The Rockies’ Chi Chi Gonzalez has horrendous numbers even on the road this season. He has walked more lefties than he’s struck out, and when he accidentally throws a strike, he’s getting hit hard 45% of the time against lefties. All this has resulted in a .441 wOBA and .295 ISO to lefties. With the extreme salary on Cody Bellinger and the pinch hit risk for Joc Pederson, Corey Seager is my preferred way to get into play with the Dodgers in cash games, and he’ll be a key part of any Dodgers stacks with his .236 ISO and 41% hard hits.

Skills Are Close, Matchup Is Not

We’ve got several aces up top, but even with guys like Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer on this slate, Mike Clevinger gets my nod for top pitcher of the night with his matchup against the White Sox. This White Sox team has the third highest strikeout rate in the league and the second lowest walk rate. This includes six batters with a strikeout rate above 25%, and not a single hitter in the projected lineup below a 22% K rate. Adding to his upside, Clevinger has thrown over 100 pitches in nine straight starts.

Mitch Keller has struggled, but also struck out 17 of his last 48 batters

Mitch Keller was pummeled for eight runs by the Phillies last time out, but still struck out eight of 24 batters following striking out nine of 24 Reds. He’s allowed six runs or more now in four of his seven starts and that’ll push your ERA up above eight, but he’s allowed a total of four earned in the other three and the underlying numbers are not that bad. He has a 19 K-BB% with a 4.11 SIERA, 3.92 FIP and .316 xwOBA. These are the marks of an above average pitcher and similar to his 20.2 K-BB% with a 3.59 FIP at AAA this year. While 41.1% of his contact above a 95 mph EV is not ideal, he’s facing an offense that struggles to hit the ball hard (Marlins 75 wRC+, 18.8 K-BB%, 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Over the last week, the Marlins have a team 53 wRC+ and 34.6 K%. This is a high upside spot for a pitcher who has struggled, but shown some positive signs and costs $8K or less on either site.

Jacob deGrom & Max Scherzer are one-two in DRA & xwOBA tonight

The third Max Scherzer/Jacob deGrom matchup of the season pits perhaps the two best pitchers in the majors and certainly the two best in the National League this season against each other with Mike Clevinger the only other arm on the slate who can probably also stake a claim as potentially tonight’s top overall arm. Interesting that both deGrom and Scherzer are at least $500 cheaper on either site (more than $1K on FD).

DeGrom was done in by two HRs from a backup catcher last time out, but allowed just five base runners through seven innings. It was the eighth time in 10 starts he’s completed seven innings and the first time he’s allowed more than two earned in that stretch. He’s behind just Scherzer and Clevinger with a 31.7 K% tonight, just Scherzer with a 2.38 DRA and .257 xwOBA. His .228 xwOBA over the last 30 days is best on the board. The Nationals have been an average offense vs RHP (98 wRC+, 11.8 K-BB%). In three starts against Washington, deGrom has allowed just a single earned run (three unearned) with a HR, five walks and 25 strikeouts in 17 innings.

Scherzer has not completed five innings in either start back from a nearly month long IL stint. It’s not performance related (8.1 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 11 K – 37 BF) and he did work up to 89 pitches last time out, which makes one believe he may be set to reach 100 tonight. He’s second on the board with a 35 K% and, as mentioned, first with a 2.34 DRA and .250 xwOBA. He’ll also be facing a league average offense vs RHP (98 wRC+, 13.8 K-BB%). Scherzer is most interesting on FanDuel, where his $10.5K price tag is likely as cheap as he’s ever been. Regardless, both pitchers appear solid values with Clevinger much more costly in a better matchup, but also a more positive run environment in Cleveland.

LHBs have a .382 wOBA and .407 xwOBA against Jordan ZImmermann last calendar year

Jordan ZImmermann has allowed just four runs over his last 16 innings, striking out 14 of 58 batters, but has just an 8.4 SwStr% over that span and 40.5 Hard%. In other words, this is a spot that favors the Twins, whose 5.81 implied run line is fourth best on the main slate. Zimmermann has a .359 xwOBA on the season, allowing 9.2% Barrels/BBE. At home, his xwOBA increases to .433 and LHBs have absolutely smashed him over the last calendar year (.382 wOBA, .407 xwOBA). Ehire Adrianza (96 wRC+, .121 ISO) is the only left-handed batter in the lineup below a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the same time span. Max Kepler (119 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (139 wRC+, .207 ISO) are two of the top overall bats on the main slate. RHBs Mitch Garver (111 wRC+, .287 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (138 wRC+, .263 ISO) have hammered same handed pitching, the latter with a 346 wRC+ and three HRs in 14 PAs over the last week. In fact, the Minnesota offense is the hottest on the board over the last seven days (141 wRC+, 23.8 HR/FB).

Start of TEX-NYY will be delayed due to rain Monday

The start of the matchup between the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees on Monday afternoon will be delayed due to rain currently in the area. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Yankees have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Masahiro Tanaka not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes this game is more likely to play than not following the initial weather delay.

Ryan Yarbrough has the top walk rate (3.2%) and 95+ mph EV (25.5%) on the main slate

The top two pitchers today are off the main slate, leaving players with just Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard reaching $9K on both sites. Taking environment and matchup into account, Ryan Yarbrough may be the top arm on the slate. He combines the best walk rate (3.2%) with the top aEV (83.9 mph) and 95+ mph EV (25.5%) on the board with a league average strikeout rate (22%). Since the All-Star break, he’s allowed more than a single earned run in only two outings. The Orioles have an 18.3 K-BB% and 10.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year and the Dome in Tampa Bay is just one of two negative run environments on the board, along with St Louis. The lone drawback here is Yarbrough’s workload. In his nine starts (without an Opener), he’s faced at least 26 batters five times and failed to complete six innings just once. However, he’s been held to 85 pitches or less in three straight starts after coming one out away from a complete game four starts back. This is the type of risk players are just going to have to accept on a difficult board. Regardless, Yarbrough should still be a strong value for just $7.6K on FanDuel.