DFS Alerts
John Hicks (illness) scratched Monday; Jake Rogers replaces
Hicks has been scratched from the Detroit Tigers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jake Rogers, who will now handle the catching duties and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Travis Demeritte up to eighth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Tigers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jake Odorizzi at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Chris McCosky via Twitter Other tagged players: Jake Rogers
Top Offense Of The Day
There is a lot of good offense on this Labor Day slate, but the Twins top the list with their tremendous power facing the low strikeouts and hard hits of Jordan Zimmermann. Against lefties, Zimmermann has managed just a 15.1% K rate while allowing a .385 wOBA and .209 ISO on 41% hard hits. The trio of Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco all come with strikeout rates below 17%, fly balls over 44% and hard hits above 38%. They are all strong plays in all formats, with Kepler being underpriced on FD for his .293 ISO against righties.
Top Offense Of The Day
There is a lot of good offense on this Labor Day slate, but the Twins top the list with their tremendous power facing the low strikeouts and hard hits of Jordan Zimmermann. Against lefties, Zimmermann has managed just a 15.1% K rate while allowing a .385 wOBA and .209 ISO on 41% hard hits. The trio of Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco all come with strikeout rates below 17%, fly balls over 44% and hard hits above 38%. They are all strong plays in all formats, with Polanco maintaining the platoon edge once the bullpen comes into play.
Best Of What's Available
This slate is lacking for high end pitching options, with no pitchers above a 26% K rate on the mound today. This will bring the matchups and salaries more into play, where Kyle Hendricks jumps to the top of my list with a home start against the Mariners. Seattle is a high strikeout team losing their DH in an NL park. If they try to get left-handed against Hendricks, he can take advantage with his 25.4% K, and if they get more right-handed, they don’t have the power to overcome his ground balls and soft contact.
Jean Segura (personal) scratched Sunday; Brad Miller replaces
Segura has been scratched from the Philadelphia Phillies original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the New York Mets due to personal reasons. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brad Miller, who will now play third base and slot directly into Segura’s vacated fifth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Phillies lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Marcus Stroman at home this evening.
As reported by: Meghan Montemurro via Twitter Other tagged players: Brad Miller Derek Fisher scratched Sunday; Brandon Drury replaces
Fisher has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Houston Astros due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brandon Drury, who will now play left field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which slides Reese McGuire down to ninth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Blue Jays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Justin Verlander at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Scott Mitchell via Twitter Other tagged players: Brandon Drury Sean Manaea makes first start of 2019 vs. stacked NYY lineup
Sean Manaea will be making his first start of the year this afternoon after dealing with a shoulder injury for the majority of 2019. Although he did look very good in 5 rehab starts in the minors (3.21 ERA / 2.97 xFIP over 28 innings pitched in AAA) you have to think Manaea will be shaking off some rust in his first start back. Facing a stacked Yankees lineup at Yankee Stadium is a tough spot to be shaking off rust. Despite dealing with injuries all year, the Yankees have continued to swing the bats well and have plenty of good options in their lineup for this matchup: Aaron Judge (.480 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (.430), Luke Voit (.394), Gleyber Torres (.355), Mike Tauchman (.346), Gary Sanchez (.329), Clint Frazier (.323) and Didi Gregorius (.302) are all in play here. Only Judge ($5.2k) and LeMahieu ($5.1k) are over $5k in the NYY lineup on Draftkings. Sanchez ($4.6k), Gregorius ($4.5k), Voit ($4.5k), Frazier ($4.3k) and Tauchman ($4.1k) all look like nice values. Yankees bats will also have the advantage of an extra hitter-friendly umpire in Stu Scheurwater. The Yanks currently have a healthy 5.79 implied line vs. Manaea and the A’s this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Clint Frazier, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres
Cheap Leverage Stack
With the news that Chatwood will be pitching instead of Darvish today, much of the attention will gravitate towards the underpriced Brewers hitters. In the same range, however, you can play a 5-man Mariners stack in large-field GPPs at a similar price that currently rates out by SlateIQ with the 2nd highest win expectation and leverage. Austin Nola & Tim Lopes both will have the platoon advantage under $4k and since Martin has a groundball lean, I’d pair them up with high flyball hitters such as Seager, Murphy, Vogelbach & Moore (depending on who cracks the lineup).
Other tagged players: Timothy Lopes
Nats are a nice stack option vs. Caleb Smith
Caleb Smith has really struggled over the past 30 days, posting a 6.39 ERA, 6.48 xFIP and 5.70 SIERA with a 2.84 HR/9, 12.8% BB rate and .383 xwOBA allowed. Smith also goes from pitcher’s haven Marlins Park to hitter-friendly Nationals Park, which has been a problem for him over the past few years. Since 2018, Smith has a 4.65 ERA / 5.23 FIP with a .328 xwOBA allowed in road starts, compared to a 3.55 ERA / 3.66 FIP and .302 xwOBA allowed in home starts. The Nationals have a league-leading 141 wRC+ over the past 14 days and have plenty of good options this afternoon: Anthony Rendon (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yan Gomes (.419), Howie Kendrick (.419), Juan Soto (.369), Trea Turner (.326), Victor Robles (.325) and Ryan Zimmerman (.277) are all in play. Kendrick has been on fire with a .530 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Juan Soto (.479) and Rendon (.424). Robles stands out as a nice value, battign 2nd at just $4k on Draftkings. Turner, Rendon, Soto and Kendrick all cost above $5k on Draftkings. Though he’s batting 7th, Gomes is a great value at just $3.1k given his success vs. lefties. The Nats currently have a 5.83 implied line vs. Smith and the Marlins.
Other tagged players: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick, Yan Gomes Yuli Gurriel (elbow) scratched Sunday; Abraham Toro replaces
Gurriel has been scratched from the Houston Astros original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays due to a left elbow contusion. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Abraham Toro, who will now play third base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Aledmys Diaz up to fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Astros lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Wilmer Font and the Blue Jays bullpen on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Chandler Rome via Twitter Other tagged players: Abraham Toro Charlie Morton is in a great spot vs. Indians
There are quite a few aces to pick from on this slate, and they all seem to have solid matchups and similar upside. One of these aces is Charlie Morton, who as at home in pitcher friendly Tropicana Field to face the Indians. As it stands right now, Morton has lowered his ERA (3.11) and xFIP (3.33) and raised his K% (30%) for the third straight year despite being 35 years old. He also has a career best SwStr at 12.6% and has lowered his HR/9 to 0.71 this year despite contending with juiced balls. The Indians have just a 94 wRC+ over the last 14 days and their lineup today will be without Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis and Tyler Naquin as well. The Indians will have just 3 batters in their lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .330 vs. RHP this year (Reyes, Lindor, Santana). Morton has also been a better pitcher at home: since 2017, he has posted a 3.75 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB and .298 xwOBA on the road compared to a 3.19 xFIP, 22.6% K-BB and .272 xwOBA allowed at home. The Indians currently have just a 3.35 implied total vs. Morton and the Rays.
Elite Splits vs LHP
He doesn’t get a ton of national attention, but Castellanos is thriving since his trade to the Cubs. He’s also always been a better hitter against lefties, and that has continued this year with a .370 average, a 1.128 OPS, and a .326 ISO. This is a fine matchup against an underwhelming lefty in Gio Gonzalez, and Castellanos is a great play in all formats.
Slugger In Prime Spot To Mash
The 2019 version of J.A. Happ just hasn’t been the one we’ve been used to in previous years. Happ’s 2.15 HR/9 ratio is nearly a full homer above his career average. He’s seen his strikeout rate plummet to just 19.6%, and his hard hit rate has ballooned to a career-high 40.1%. The A’s have a team wRC+ of 114 against lefties and rank as the third hardest team for left-handed pitchers to strikeout. This lines up well for Khris Davis, who is hitting 5th and right in the middle of this Oakland lineup.
Mahle is dirt cheap and an intriguing SP option
Tyler Mahle will be called up from the minors to face the Cardinals and make his first MLB start since 7/19. Especially for GPPs, Mahle and his dirt cheap pricing is intriguing given that there are multiple high priced SP1s to pair him with on Draftkings. On the surface, Mahle seemed ineffective earlier in the year as he posted a 4.93 ERA and 1.58 HR/9 over 102 innings. However, Mahle is also the owner of a 3.82 xFIP, 4.05 SIERA, a 24.3% K rate and 6% BB rate, and 45.6% GB rate. He also allowed just a .315 xwOBA and 8% barrel rate, all going to show that his ERA is probably higher than deserved. Mahle does have a wide platoon split, as he has a 22.9% K-BB and .280 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB compared to a 13.1% K-BB and .353 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB this year. Fortunately for Mahle, the Cardinals have just two lefties in their starting lineup this afternoon. At a price of just $6.2k on Draftkings, Mahle is a very interesting SP2 play. He’s also a consideration on FanDuel at an even cheaper $5.9k. The Cardinals currently have a 4.73 implied total vs. Mahle and the Reds.
Cheap Lead-Off Hitter In Solid Spot
Yu Darvish was set to start but has been scratched for Tyler Chatwood, who has walk issues. This is a huge boost for Trent Grisham and all these Brewers, who were priced to face Darvish. I love a cheap Grisham across the industry, and the Brewers stack is now more appealing.