DFS Alerts
If Lefty Mashers Existed, They’d Look Like This Guy
I don’t want to pick on Cole Hamels, but the price point and platoon advantage for Brian Dozier make him a strong cash game play. On the season, Dozier has a .252 ISO and 135 wRC+ against southpaws, which is fantastic. Hamels can be prone to the long ball too, making this a potentially exploitable matchup.
Necessary Value
The Indians underwhelmed last night against Glenn Sparkman, but they get an immediate chance to make amends today against another hittable pitcher in Skoglund. The Kansas City starter has posted an ERA north of 6.00 over his 88 career major league innings, and he has a 6.14 ERA in eight Triple-A starts this year. In other words, here is no reason to expect a turnaround anytime soon. Fire up your Indians today. Skoglund is not going to miss bats, and he will be at the mercy of BABIP in this one. Franmil Reyes will likely be hitting in the middle of the order, and he owns a .280 ISO against LHP since being acquired by the Indians. That makes him a key value piece for me on this slate.
Great Potential Against a Reverse Splits Arm
Once again, we can play “pick your Astro” as the top overall bat on the slate, as they own a team total close to seven runs once again. It’s yet another day with the team facing an underwhelming pitcher. Most DFS players will lean toward lefty bats against a right-handed arm, but it is worth noting that Jaime Barria has long been a pitcher with reverse splits tendencies. That has continued this year, as Barria has allowed a .424 wOBA to righties along with a massive 44% hard contact rate. This vaults Springer and Bregman to the top of the list, and we’re really splitting hairs between the two. I’ll give the slight edge to Bregman thanks to the fact that he is red hot right now. He is hitting .405 with a .500 OBP and a 1.324 OPS in the month of August. Scorching. Springer isn’t too far behind, though, and both are elite options in any format.
Other tagged players: George Springer Value Arm With Potential
Anything is possible against the White Sox. Kolby Allard had been nothing short of awful in his first taste of big league action, but he mowed down the White Sox last night, tossing 6 1/3 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts on his way to his second big league win. Could Brock Burke follow in those same footsteps? Burke pitched six scoreless innings in his first major league start, and this is a rookie who posted a solid 26.5% strikeout rate between Double-A and Triple-A this season. The control has been an issue at times throughout his journey toward the big leagues, but it’s less of a concern for me against a bad offense. On a slate that doesn’t offer a ton of super cheap pitching options, Burke is a fine salary saver, particularly on sites where you need to roster more than one arm.
Safety and Upside in a Great Matchup
After a shaky start to the year, Nola has steadied the ship quite nicely. His strikeout rate is up to 26.6% for the season, his ERA is down to 3.51, and his xFIP sits at 3.82. He has a 2.48 ERA since the start of July. Of course, the primary appeal today is a matchup against a Marlins offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Nola has allowed just two runs over 14 2/3 innings against the Marlins this year, with a 14/2 K/BB ratio in those starts. He has the best combination of safety and upside on this slate.
Kolby Allard is quietly in a nice spot vs. White Sox
Allard has been a mixed bag over 3 starts this year, posting a 6.60 ERA, 3.88 FIP and 5.01 xFIP with a 10.1% K-BB, 0.60 HR/9 and 9.8% SwStr. Per Statcast, he has allowed just a .291 xwOBA with a very impressive 2.3% barrel rate and 88 MPH aEV. It’s tough to draw much from a 15 inning sample, and Allards AAA stat-line of a 4.17 ERA / 4.36 xFIP, 13.3% K-BB and 1.23 HR/9 doesn’t necessarily jump off the page. However, Allard does get a nice matchup tonight in Chicago to face a White Sox team that has a 5th-worst .304 xwOBA vs. LHP on the year. The White Sox also have a league-worst .283 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Also working in Allard’s favor tonight will be catcher Jose Trevino, who is considered to be one of the better pitch framers in baseball. The most attractive part of Allard tonight is his price; he’ll cost just $6.6k on Fanduel and $7.8k on Fanduel. The White Sox currently have a 4.75 implied total tonight vs. Allard and the Rangers. Allard does not figure to see too much ownership.
Felix Hernandez returns from long IL stint to face surging Toronto offense
Felix Hernandez has not appeared in an MLB game since May 11th, when he was shelled for 7 earned runs in 2 and 1/3 innings and soon after placed on the IL with a lat problem. Before that, Felix had displayed an improved walk rate (4.6% BB rate, down from 8.6% in 2018) but he also held a 6.52 ERA, 2.09 HR/9 and a 45.3% hard contact rate. Per Statcast, he’s also allowed a .344 xwOBA and league-worst 91.7 MPH aEV. In a steady decline for a few years now and likely shaking off rust from being on the IL for months, Blue Jays bats seem to be in a great spot vs. Felix tonight, especially given that they have a 5th best 113 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Justin Smoak (.407 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.353), Cavan Biggio (.340), Bo Bichette (.331), Rowdy Tellez (.321), Reese McGuire (.306) and Randall Grichuk (.292) are all potential options vs. the Mariners tonight. Teoscar Hernandez has been the Blue Jays’ hottest hitter with a .425 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks and is another option. Blue Jays hitters are very affordable as only Bo Bichette ($4.7k) and Vlad Guerrero Jr. ($4.2k) will cost over $4k on Draftkings , while just Bichette, Biggio and Guerrero Jr. are above $3k on Fanduel.
Other tagged players: Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Reese McGuire, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk Felix Hernandez is Back in Our Lives
Welcome back, Felix Hernandez! Over the past two seasons, he’s sporting a monstrous .269 ISO and 41.8% HH with only 19.7% Ks to lefties. Cavan Biggio at $3600 on DraftKings at a scare 2B position is a solid cheap option. The Jays are projected to have 6 lefties in the order, so I consider them all to be in play tonight for 5-man stacks in large-field GPPs. Felix is not all that much better to righties, so don’t forget out Randal Grichuk at under $4k and although he’s priced up, Bo Bichette is likely to be quite lower owned to due his $4700 salary.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez
Cheap Power Stack In Perceived Bad Matchup
Madison Bumgarner is typically a pitcher we don’t prefer to attack, but Oakland’s currently projected lineup has a .366 wOBA, .236 ISO and only a 17.1% K rate versus lefties. Chad Pinder is dirt cheap at $3200 on DraftKings at a scare 2B position you are likely paying down for. Combined with Piscotty $3500 or Davis $2900 alongside Semien, Chapman & Canha, this 5-man stack comes in under $20k and likely to lower owned in large field GPPs due to the name value of Bumgarner, the ballpark, and the attention the Twins will be getting tonight.
Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Khris Davis Edwin Jackson owns an 8.46 ERA and .408 xwOBA allowed this year
Still somehow in a Major League rotation, Edwin Jackson is by far the most obvious pitcher to target on this slate. Jackson has been absolutely crushed to the tune of an 8.46 ERA and 7.58 FIP this year with a 3.02 HR/9 and 45% hard contact rate. Per Statcast, he’s allowed a .408 xwOBA, 91 MPH aEV and 13.3% barrel rate. The Twins should make quick work of Jackson and get plenty of plate appearances vs. a Tigers bullpen that has a 4.81 xFIP over the past 30 days. Nelson Cruz (.417 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Miguel Sano (.362), Jorge Polanco (.353), Luis Arraez (.347), Jake Cave (.343), Max Kepler (.343), Marwin Gonzalez (.312) and Mitch Garver (.312) are all in play tonight vs. Detroit. Marwin Gonzalez continues to be a value of Draftkings, projected to hit 4th at just $4.1k surrounded by hitters that cost $5k +. Luis Arraez is another value option at just $4.3k but will likely hit lower in the order. Jake Cave is just $3.3k and projected to bat last, but could still make for a great play given that the Twins should bat through the lineup early and often tonight. Currently the Twins have a healthy 6.64 implied total vs. Jackson and the Tigers. They will have very high ownership across all contests.
Other tagged players: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jake Cave Exposure To A Seven Run Total
Edwin Jackson, despite his recent good fortune, is still a pitcher with a ludicrous 8.46 ERA for the year to go along with an awful overall profile. He’s allowing hard contact like it’s going out of style. The power hitters for the Twins are absolutely capable of teeing off here. I always side with Jorge Polanco and his .380+ wOBA against RHP for the year. He hits for average and should push for five at-bats tonight. In GPP formats, shoot for the moon with the power potential. Miguel Sano and Max Kepler don’t hit for much average, but both have elite power profiles. There’s upside throughout this offense here.
Elite Profile Against LHP
it feels like the Astros are facing a weak pitcher and/or a lefty for about the 20th time this month, but here we are. Give me Bregman as my preferred target. His numbers against LHP have been on a steady climb, and they currently are downright impressive from top to bottom. While Houston has a ton of hitters that are elite against lefties, Bregman takes the cake with a .422 wOBA, .325 ISO, and 1.045 OPS to go along with a 14% strikeout rate and a 13% walk rate. That’s elite stuff. He’s my favorite overall bat on the slate.
Top Saturday Night Arm
You can make a case for both Clevinger and Gibson tonight, and they both rise to the top on a slate that leaves a lot to be desired from a pitching perspective. I’ll give a slight edge to Clevinger thanks to his matchup against a Royals team that has a .273 wOBA and 6.7% walk rate in the month of August. That wOBA mark is 17 points lower than any other team in the league. When you combine that with the impatient nature of the offense, this bodes well for Clevinger, since the biggest risk with him is often an elevated walk rate. Otherwise, his numbers are elite, and it’s amazing that he has a 3.11 ERA with a .338 opposing BABIP on the year. Really, he’s pitched better than those surface numbers show. The 2.63 xFIP and nearly 37% strikeout rate show off his potential, and he’s clearly the highest upside arm on the slate. It’s not even all that close.
Cheap Sneaky Stack
Nathan Eovaldi still does not look right. The Padres are a team that most people won’t want to stack up, especially at home in San Diego. Eovaldi is just so volatile that this Padres stack could easily pay off today and you should get this stack at low ownership. I would start my stack with the middle of the order guys like Machado, Hosmer, and Renfroe.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Hunter Renfroe
Top Bat To Spend Up For
Nelson Cruz is my favorite bat to pay up for tonight. He gets a great matchup against Eddie Jackson who has really struggled this year to both sides of the plate. To righties this year Jackson is giving up a .495 wOBA, .377 ISO, and a 44% hard hit rate. Cruz has been on a tear and he is hitting a .307 ISO, .421 wOBA, and a 53% hard hit rate against right handed pitching. Cruz is someone I just can’t leave out of my lineups today in this matchup.