DFS Alerts
Contrarian SP Option
Zac Gallen should be a little lower owned in a tough matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers obviously have a lot of power but are 8th now in strikeout rate to right handed pitching. Gallen has the third highest strikeout rate on this slate at 27.6% and a 12.7% swinging strike rate. This slate is not loaded with great options so we have to take shots on pitchers who have the talent with the upside even in a tough matchup so I like this play in tournaments.
Great Matchup For SP
Kyle Gibson gets one of the best matchups against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are a very right handed heavy lineup and Gibson is better to righties with a little higher strikeout rate at 24% with a 13.2% swinging strike rate. The Tigers this year against right handed pitching are 1st in strikeout rate, 28th in ISO, and 29th in wOBA. This is a great spot for Gibson to have a good performance.
Dream Matchup
Kyle Gibson’s matchup is a dream one as the Twins host a Detroit Tigers team that owns the league’s lowest wRC+ (74) and league’s highest strikeout rate (26.7%) against right-handed pitching this season. Gibsons’s price tag on FanDuel is way too cheap for the matchup which makes him the preferred cash game option there. Gibson is more expensive on DraftKings but I’m still in favor of paying up at both SP spots in cash games and pairing him with Mike Clevinger.
Good Run Prevention + Strikeout Matchup
Mike Clevinger has been unreal this season. Clevinger’s career high 36.5% strikeout rate is tops on the slate by a wide margin and his matchup against the Kansas City Royals is a good one. Not only do the Royals represent a favorable run prevention matchup for Clevinger as they own the fifth worst wRC+ (84) in the league against right-handed pitching but they also have plenty of strikeouts in their projected lineup with six hitters owning strikeout rates 23.7% or higher against RHP over the last two seasons.
Boring But Necessary
The best hitter in baseball against an average lefty AND he’s affordable? Count me in. As always, writing a blurb about Trout is extremely boring but it seems necessary to highlight that I think Trout is an important piece of cash game and tournament lineups on Saturday night. Wade Miley has been able to skate through the season with a 3.18 ERA thanks to a strong ground ball rate (51.9%), high strand-rate (79.1%), and low batting average on balls in play (.262) with success in the latter two categories largely driven by luck. Miley’s advanced run prevention metrics view him much less favorably (4.36 xFIP; 4.60 SIERA) and I expect Trout to have success against the southpaw.
Mike Clevinger is in a great spot vs. KCR
Since July 1st, Mike Clevinger has been nothing short of a top-tier ace as he has posted a 2.17 ERA, 2.55 xFIP, a 34.7% K rate, 6.6% BB rate and 14.7% SwStr. Per Statcast, he has also allowed just a .272 xwOBA and 87.1 MPH aEV. Tonight Clevinger gets a matchup with the Royals, who have a fifth-worst 84 wRC+ with a 21.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Royals have also been ice cold with a pitiful 66 wRC+ over the past month. 5 of 9 hitters in the Royals’ projected lineup have an xwOBA below .240 over the past month. Clevinger should also have the benefit of plus pitch-framer Roberto Perez behind the plate. Clevinger is $11k+ on both major sites, but should be well worth the price as he looks like the primary arm to spend up on in both cash and GPPs. The Royals currently have just a 2.79 implied total for tonight.
Chase Anderson is dirt cheap despite solid matchup
Although he is pitching in hitter-friendly Miller Park tonight, Chase Anderson is way too cheap on both Draftkings ($6000) and Fanduel ($6300) tonight vs. the D-Backs. Anderson has regressed a bit in 2019, posting a 4.54 ERA with a 5.22 xFIP and 4.77 SIERA. He has maintained a respectable 21.5% K rate though and does have a career best 10.9% SwStr. The D-Backs have just an 88 wRC+ with a 21.5% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Their projected starting lineup contains just 3 batters (Alex Avila, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte) who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .325 on the year. Anderson has actually shown a reverse platoon split; since 2017, he owns a 22.3% K rate and .276 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties, compared to a 20.8% K rate and .339 xwOBA allowed vs. righties. Working to Anderson’s advantage, the D-Backs project to have 6 left-handed batters in their lineup tonight. Anderson should also have the benefit of one of the best pitch framers in the game in Yasmani Grandal, as well as pitcher friendly umpire Mike Everitt calling balls and strikes. Anderson projects as one of the best PTS/$ pitchers on the slate and makes a lot of sense to use in both cash and GPPs given his price and matchup tonight. The D-Backs currently have an implied total of 4.28.
Trevor Williams has a 7.92 ERA, 6.60 SIERA and -0.9% K-BB over past 30 days
After posting a 3.11 ERA in 2018, Trevor Williams has regressed hard in 2019 as he currently has a 5.65 ERA, 5.24 xFIP, 5.12 SIERA and 10.4% K-BB. Williams has really been done in by the long ball this year; his 1.69 HR/9 is more than double his 2018 rate of 0.79 HR/9. Over the past 30 days, Willliams has struggled even more with a 7.92 ERA / 6.60 SIERA, 2.52 HR/9 and .369 xwOBA allowed. He is a bit worse vs. lefties (.344 xwOBA allowed vs. LHP, .310 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB since 2018) but hitters from both sides of the plate can be used vs. him. Derek Dietrich (.369 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Aristides Aquino (.366), Josh VanMeter (.349) and Eugenio Suarez (.316) are all good options tonight vs. Williams. Aquino has been the Reds’ hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .390 xwOBA, followed by Jose Peraza with a .384 mark. Freddy Galvis has mostly struggled this year, but does have a .342 xwOBA vs. RHP since joining the Reds. Josh VanMeter ($4k on DK, projected to leadoff) and Derek Dietrich ($4k on DK, projected to bat 5th) both have the platoon advantage and look like solid, affordable plays.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Josh VanMeter, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza, Freddy Galvis Hunter Pence (back) scratched Friday; Nick Solak replaces
Pence has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox due to lower back stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Nick Solak, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot directly into Pence’s vacated fifth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Rangers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Dylan Cease on the road this evening.
As reported by: John Blake via Twitter Other tagged players: Nick Solak
Peter Lambert has a slate-worst 6.35 SIERA and -0.9% K-BB over past 30 days
While Peter Lambert’s last 30 days have been rough (7.56 ERA / 6.35 SIERA, -0.9% K-BB, 5% SwStr) they aren’t terribly far off from his overall 2019 stats (6.55 ERA / 5.24 SIERA, 7.4% K-BB, 6.5% SwStr). He’s simply just not a good pitcher and can be targeted whether he’s pitching in Coors or not. Lambert does own a solid 47.1% GB rate, but still gives up a lot of home runs (1.77 HR/9), doesn’t miss enough bats and walks too many hitters to prevent giving up runs in bunches. Lambert does have a very wide platoon split over 66 innings this year (.376 xwOBA vs. LHP, .307 xwOBA vs. RHP) but I wouldn’t shy away from Cardinals’ righties in this spot. Marcell Ozuna (.392 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Dexter Fowler (.342), Paul Goldschmidt (.336), Paul DeJong (.333), Harrison Bader (.318), Kolten Wong (.297) and Tommy Edman (.293) are all in play tonight vs. Lambert. Though the Cardinals offense has largely struggled over the past few months, their top of the order guys have begun to heat up of late as Ozuna, Goldschmidt and Fowler all have an xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Fowler is quietly enjoying a nice bounceback season and is leading off at just $4.2k on Draftkings tonight. The Cardinals should have slightly low ownership tonight despite a good matchup and solid 5.09 implied total.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong, Harrison Bader, Kolten Wong, Tommy Edman Twins have highest implied total on the slate vs. VerHagen
Drew VerHagen has a 5.12 ERA / 4.63 xFIP over 170.2 career innings, but currently has a 6.67 ERA, 5.56 xFIP, 5.34 SIERA and 5% K-BB over 29.2 innings in 2019. VerHagen has been a bit more vulnerable vs. lefties with a .382 wOBA allowed vs. LHB compared to a .310 wOBA allowed vs. RHB in his career. The Twins have a 5th best 111 wRC+ vs. RHP this year and have a good amount of options in their lineup tonight, especially now that Nelson Cruz has recently returned from the IL. Cruz (.420 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jason Castro (.393), Miguel Sano (.355), Jorge Polanco (.354), Luis Arraez (.348), Max Kepler (.343), Ehire Adrianza (.323) and Marwin Gonzalez (.316) are all in play vs. VerHagen tonight. Miguel Sano has been the hottest hitter of the bunch with a .417 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Marwin Gonzalez is a nice value on Draftkings, batting 4th at just $3.9k. Arraez follows him in the order at $4.1k and Adrianza will bat 7th at just $3.7k. Cruz will cost a hefty $5.8k on DK while no other Twins hitter is above $4.7k. The Twins currently have a 6.44 implied total for tonight’s game.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Marwin Gonzalez, Ehire Adrianza, Jorge Polanco, Jason Castro, Max Kepler Jose Berrios has a 2.93 ERA, 20% K-BB and .277 xwOBA allowed at home since 2017
Jose Berrios has put together another good season in 2019 as he so far has a 3.37 ERA, 4.42 xFIP and 4.31 SIERA with a 16.9% K-BB, 1.18 WHIP and 10.5% SwStr. Berrios is in a great spot for several reasons tonight as he gets a matchup at home vs. Detroit. For starters, the Tigers have a league-worst 73 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year with a 26.8% K rate. They also have a pitiful .292 xwOBA since trading their best hitter Nick Castellanos at the trade deadline. Jose Berrios has been a much better pitcher at home since breaking out in 2017; he owns a 2.93 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 20% K-BB and .277 xwOBA allowed in home starts compared to a 4.47 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 13.5% K-BB and .318 xwOBA allowed in road starts since 2017. Berrios also has a very distinct platoon split: since 2017, he’s allowed a .279 xwOBA and 18.9% K-BB to righties compared to a .318 xwOBA and 14.3% K-BB to lefties. The Tigers project to have just 3 lefties in their order tonight (Victor Reyes, Harold Castro, Niko Goodrum) and these guys have combined for just a .294 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year. Berrios is a very attractive play across all sites but is especially intriguing on Fanduel where he costs just $8800 tonight.
Zach Plesac is a nice value arm vs. Royals
Though Plesac has seemingly been pretty lucky in the ERA department this year (3.53 ERA with a 5.13 xFIP and 5.20 SIERA) his .339 xwOBA allowed isn’t completely terrible and might help to explain a bit of the gap between his ERA and peripherals. Plesac also owns a 18.3% K rate, 9% BB rate, 37.9% hard contact rate and 9.6% SwStr. Plesac is at home to face the Royals tonight, who have a 5th worst 85 wRC+ on the year vs. RHP. The Royals also have a 4th worst .293 xwOBA as a team over the past month. Plesac will also have the benefit of catcher Roberto Perez behind the plate, who is one of the better pitch framers in baseball. Plesac is priced very affordable across the industry; he will be just $7.2k on Draftkings and $8k on Fanduel. The Royals currently have just a 3.77 implied line vs. Plesac and the Royals tonight. Alhough he does lack strikeout upside, Plesac can come into value rather easily in this spot given the price and matchup. He projects as one of the better value arms on the board.
Jack Flaherty has allowed a total of five runs over his last eight starts
Although Jacob deGrom is the only pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites, four more reach that price point on either DraftKings or FanDuel. Surprisingly, Jack Flaherty is not one of them despite allowing a total of five runs over his last eight starts and topping the board with a 33.6 K% over the last 30 days. His 81.1 Z-Contact% is behind only deGrom tonight. In 71.2 innings at home this season, he has a 2.98 ERA, .248 wOBA against, 25.1 K-BB% and 3.36 xFIP. It’s generally a great park to pitch in if it’s not too hot, which doesn’t appear to be the case tonight. Flaherty will also face the second worst road offense in baseball by wRC+ (74). The Rockies have a 19.5 K-BB% with just a 12.5 HR/FB away from Coors this year. Players looking for potential high end production at a cost below $10K should have their eye on Flaherty.
Merrill Kelly has the highest xwOBA on the board over the last 30 days (.385)
Merrill Kelly has been marginally effective at times with a 4.63 ERA matching most estimators behind a 12.5 K-BB% and 15 HR/FB. All seemingly near league average stuff. However, his 5.32 DRA and .349 xwOBA are quite a bit worse than league average as he’s allowed an 89 mph aEV with 9.3% Barrels/BBE. He does hold runners well with a strong defense behind him, but he’s allowed multiple HRs with at least six runs in three of his last five starts, a span over which he has a .385 xwOBA that’s worst on the board. While the Brewers disappointed daily fantasy owners in St Louis this week, they still have a team 125 wRC+ over the last seven days and return home to a friendlier run environment tonight. Kelly’s issues against LHBs (.332 wOBA, .368 xwOBA) is likely to be a detriment here. Only three offenses have an implied run line above Milwaukee’s 5.52. Christian Yelich has been the best hitter in baseball against RHP over the last calendar year (213 wRC+, .421 ISO). He also has a 187 wRC+ and .372 ISO at home since being traded to Milwaukee. Yasmani Grandal (115 wRC+, .202 ISO), Mike Moustakas (119 wRC+, .271 ISO) and Eric Thames (118 wRC+, .244 ISO) have been above average hitters with power as well.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames, Merrill Kelly