DFS Alerts
Joe Musgrove has an xwOBA (.315) 45 points lower than actual results last 30 days
Joe Musgrove has been alternating good and bad starts since the break (he would be due for a good one if you buy into that sort of thing). Overall, he has fairly average numbers with some positive standouts being a 5.6 BB%, 3.87 DRA and 6.6% Barrels/BBE on the season and a .309 xwOBA over the last month that’s in line with his season rate (.315), but 45 points better than his actual results over that span. A potentially factor in his favor in Philly tonight is a weather forecast that suggests winds blowing in from right field may have a significantly negative effect on the run environment tonight (Weather Edge is a premium subscriber product, which updates throughout the day). While he may be a bit volatile for cash game players, his cost at $6K makes him the second lowest priced arm on the board on DraftKings and potentially a great value in this spot for GPP players even with Bryce Harper (123 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) expected back tonight. In fact, an effort in line with some of his stronger starts since the break could put Musgrove in line with any of the top performers tonight at a much lower price on a lackluster pitching board. As an added bonus, there also seems to be some reverse line movement in this game in favor of the Pirates and the Under, signaling that smart money may expecting a strong effort from Musgrove here.
Wide Open Hitting Options
While the pitching slate has a clear leader up top, the hitting is wide open. I will not have as tight of a core as usual tonight, and there is not one single bat on this slate that I consider to be a must play. One position where I want to be sure to get power upside is first base, and I’ll start with Paul Goldschmidt in Milwaukee against an average lefty in Gio Gonzalez. Goldschmidt has always hit lefties well, and this season has a .305 ISO and .397 wOBA on 51% hard hits. With Gonzalez’ shaky control, he is likely to have runners on base around him tonight.
The Only Good Option
This seems like a high price for Sonny Gray, but the gap between him and every other pitcher on this slate is too big to ignore. Gray not only has an ideal matchup against a Marlins team with high strikeouts and ground balls, but his 29.2% K rate is heads and shoulders above the rest of tonight’s slate. He’s gotten stronger as the season moves on, up to a 32.1% K rate since the All-Star Break and has back-to-back 10 K games against better teams than what he faces tonight.
Rays in a good spot vs. Bundy
Bundy has had a pretty similar year to his 2018, posting a 5.03 ERA, 4.54 xFIP and 4.45 SIERA with a 1.32 WHIP and 15.8% K-BB. Bundy has always had a solid K-BB% throughout his career, but has had trouble with home runs (1.77 HR/9 this year, career 1.71 HR/9). Bundy also has a very wide platoon split, allowing a .344 xwOBA vs. lefties compared to a .294 xwOBA vs. righties since 2018. Bundy faces the Rays this afternoon, who will have 5 lefties in their starting lineup: Eric Sogard (.398 xwOBA vs. RHP since joining Rays), Austin Meadows (.382 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Ji-Man Choi (.361), Kevin Kiermaier (.291) and Joey Wendle (.273). Though without the platoon advantage vs. Bundy, Tommy Pham (.360) and Avisail Garcia (.347) are also in play. Pham has been the Rays’ hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .409 xwOBA, followed by Ji-Man Choi with a .395 mark. With the exception of Meadows, all Rays bats are available for less than $5k on Draftkings. They currently have a healthy 5.41 implied total vs. Bundy and the Orioles and do not project to see very high ownership on this slate.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi, Kevin Kiermaier, Joey Wendle
White Sox are an intriguing contrarian stack vs. Brock Burke
Lefty Brock Burke will be making his 2nd career star this afternoon vs. the White Sox after throwing 6 scoreless innings in his debut. Per Fangraphs, Burke has a future value of 40+ and is ranked 23rd prospect in the Rangers organization. Burke did post a respectable 3.18 ERA / 3.25 xFIP over 45 innings in AA this year, but still remains largely unproven and isn’t someone to shy away from. Recently returning Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez to the lineup, the White Sox lineup has some good options for this matchup vs. Burke. Jose Abreu (162 wRC+, .250 ISO vs. LHP this year), Leury Garcia (114 wRC+, .156 ISO), Yolmer Sanchez (109 wRC+, .113 ISO), Tim Anderson (107 wRC+, .110 ISO), Eloy Jimenez (99 wRC+, .220 ISO), Yoan Moncada (95 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Wellington Castillo (84 wRC+, .210 ISO) are all good options this afternoon. Leury Garcia is a nice value, leading off at just $3.9k on Draftkings. Eloy Jimenez is just $4k, while Wellington Castillo is just $3.2k at a shallow catcher position and has a career wRC+ vs. LHP of 124. The White Sox currently have a 4.75 implied total and make for a nice contrarian GPP stack given their very low projected ownership.
Other tagged players: Yoan Moncada, Leury Garcia, Eloy Jimenez, Welington Castillo, Tim Anderson Indians currently have the highest total on the slate vs. Skoglund
The Royals are calling 6’7 lefty Eric Skoglund up from AAA to make this start in Cleveland vs. the Indians. Over 63 innings (11 starts) in AAA, Skoglund had a 6.14 ERA, 6.49 xFIP, 1.71 HR/9, 9.3% K-BB, 1.52 WHIP and 42% FB rate. Over 88 career MLB innings, Skoglund has a 6.03 ERA and 5.13 xFIP. Skoglund has no problem with control as evidenced by his 6.1% BB rate in AAA this year and career 8% BB rate, but lacks swing and miss stuff (career 16.3% K rate, 7.2% SwStr) and his approach leads to him often getting hammered (career 90.2 MPH aEV, .353 xwOBA allowed). Though they just lost Jose Ramirez to the IL, the Indians suddenly have a dangerous lineup after acquiring Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes at the deadline and have some nice options tpday. Carlos Santana (.358 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yasiel Puig (.341), Francisco Lindor (.338), Franmil Reyes (.321), Oscar Mercado (.315) and Jason Kipnis (.286) are all in play. Santana has been their hottest bat with a .419 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Franmil Reyes is a nice value batting 5th at just $3.8k, followed by Jason Kipnis at $3.9k. The Indians have a 6.14 implied total vs. Skoglund and the Royals.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado, Jason Kipnis Aaron Nola in a great spot vs. Marlins in hitter-friendly Marlins Park
Aaron Nola has put together another solid season in 2019 with a 3.51 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 17.6% K-BB and 10.1% SwStr. Per Statcast he has a .298 xwOBA, 6.3% barrel rate and 88.6 MPH aEV. This afternoon Nola is in perhaps the best spot a pitcher can possibly be in these days, facing a terrible Marlins offense in pitcher’s haven Marlins’ Park. The Marlins have a 2nd worst 77 wRC+ and 24.9% K rate vs. right-handed pitching this year. They also have just a .301 xwOBA vs. RHP in the last 30 days, and their starting lineup has just 2 batters who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .320 on the year. Nola is right around $11k on both major sites; there are other similarly priced aces on this slate but none have a matchup as juicy as Nola’s this afternoon. The Marlins currently have just a 3.31 implied total vs. Nola and Phillies. Expect very high ownership on Nola throughout all contests.
Cheap Stack Against Overrated Pitcher
While Martin Perez had a great start to the season, his performances over the past two months have come crashing down to earth with multiple walks, multiple home runs, and a sub-20% K rate. I know the Tigers are a putrid offense, but they’re not nearly as atrocious against left handed pitching. You can make a 5-man stack for as little as $16.7k on DraftKings that fills a catcher and infield spots, which will then allow you to pay up for stud SPs and three expensive one-off bats. On an 11-game slate with not all that many high totals this afternoon, the Tigers still have 4 runs implied, and should have quite low ownership for a viable route to go in large-field GPPs at their price.
Other tagged players: Dawel Lugo, Miguel Cabrera, Travis Demeritte, John Hicks
Steven Matz has a 2.56 ERA / 2.71 FIP and 19.5% K-BB over past 30 days
It has been an up and down season for Matz, which has ultimately seen him post a 4.18 ERA, 4.27 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA with a 15% K-BB, 1.34 WHIP, 46.8% GB rate and 9.3% SwStr. Per Statcast, he’s also allowed a .330 xwOBA, 10% barrel rate and 88.5 MPH aEV. Matz has encouragingly shown much better over the past 30 days, posting a 2.56 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 19.5% K-BB and a .280 xwOBA allowed. Statcast shows he’s been throwing his sinker a bit less over the past 30 days which has a .346 xwOBA allowed on the year, and throwing more of his slider which has a .301 xwOBA allowed. Matz gets a matchup at home with the Braves tonight, who have been exactly average this year vs. LHP with a 100 wRC+ and 23% K rate. The Braves are missing a few of their regulars (Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis, Austin Riley) and have a 17th ranked .317 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Matz has been much better in home starts: he has a 3.91 ERA / 3.58 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB and .309 xwOBA allowed at home compared to a 4.98 ERA / 4.93 xFIP, 10% K-BB and .334 xwOBA in road starts since 2017. Matz is decently affordable in the mid $8k range on both major sites, and doesn’t figure to see high ownership. The Braves currently have a 4.25 implied total.
Top Stack
Houston is a great stack option today against Jamie Barria. Barria has given up 2 or more home runs in 3 out of his last 4 games. Houston against right handed pitching this year is 4th in ISO and wOBA. This stack is expensive so it should not be as highly owned, especially with a lot of pitchers to pay up for. 1 through 6 in the order are in play but Barria this year has struggled a little more to righties, so I would start with Springer, Bregman, Altuve, and Gurriel.
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Yulieski Gurriel
Sneaky Stack
The Twins have one of the best offenses in the league against left handed pitching. Matt Boyd has had a pretty good year, but one thing he struggles with is giving up home runs. In his last 4 games Boyd has given up 8 home runs. The Twins are first in ISO and second in wOBA against left handed pitching. With this matchup they should still see lower ownership so I love the stack in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Max Kepler Righty Power Bat
On a slate like this we need something affordable in a good spot and Josh Donaldson is one of my favorites. He is in a good spot against the lefty Steven Matz. Donaldson against lefties this year has a 245 ISO, 378 wOBA, and a 52% hard hit rate. Matz has pitched well over his last few games but is still giving up around 38% hard contact and Donaldson has done very well against lefties for his career.
Paying Up To Be Contrarian
Shane Bieber is my favorite pitcher to pay up for. With a few high price options and the fact that he is the highest price tag on both Fanduel and DraftKings should lower his ownership. Bieber has the top swinging strike rate on the slate at 14.1% with a 30.8% strikeout rate which is 2nd. Bieber has the ability for double digit strikeouts so in tournaments I will be willing to pay the high price tag.
Don’t-Overthink-It Spot
Aaron Nola is the top arm on the slate and it’s not close. He should be popping on all projection systems facing a Marlins team that ranks 6th in K% against righties and dead last in team ISO. The Marlins also just lost their best hitter in Brian Anderson. Yes, the Marlins can be pesky and they did surprisingly explode for a boatload of runs on Friday against these Phillies, but I’d plug Nola into my cash game lineups as the starting point and build around him.
Attacking This Pitcher
While I prefer Yasiel Puig against righties, Eric Skoglund has shown nothing in his minor league (and major league) numbers he deserves to be pitching at this level. While he’s had good control (19 walks), he’s allowed 93 hits in 73 innings this year between Double-A and Triple-A. He has a career 6.03 ERA in the majors and I’m loading up on Indians today.