DFS Alerts
Lots of value in Brewers’ lineup tonight
Brewers’ bats will likely be very popular across all contests tonight as they are in a good spot vs. Anibal Sanchez and affordable as well. Sanchez does have a 3.75 ERA on the year, but a 5.07 xFIP, 5.04 SIERA and 11.1% K-BB show that he is very likely to regress in the ERA department. Since 2018 Sanchez has shown about even L/R splits and can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight. The Brewers have a good amount of hitters in their order tonight that have had success vs. RHP this year: Christian Yelich (.432 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Keston Hiura (.386), Trent Grisham (.361), Yasmani Grandal (.345), Mike Moustakas (.340), Ryan Braun (.329) and Eric Thames (.320) are all great options. Trent Grisham is leading off at just $2.9k on Draftkings and is one of the best value plays on the slate. Grandal follows him in the order at just $3.7k. Moustakas, Braun and Thames will all be $3.7k or less on DK and will bat 5-6-7 in the order. Hiura will bat 4th and is affordable as well with a $4.3k price tag. The Brewers currently have a 4.74 implied line vs. Sanchez and the Nationals.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Keston Hiura, Trent Grisham, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Ryan Braun
Junis could be a sneaky SP option vs. Mets
Aside from Jacob DeGrom and a few other value arms, it is tough to find viable pitching options on this slate. One intriguing option is Jacob Junis, who is at home in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium to face the Mets. The Mets do have a scorching hot 131 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks, but have since lost good hitters due to injuries, and their lineup for tonight is largely unimposing. Their starting lineup tonight contains just two batters (Conforto and Alonso) who have an xwOBA greater than .315 vs. RHP on the year. Junis hasn’t been spectacular this year (4.80 ERA / 4.61 xFIP / 4.61 SIERA) but he does have a respectable 14% K-BB and is certainly capable of producing good starts here and there. If he can limit damage to Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto, Junis stands a good chance of hitting value on his $8.3k and $8.5k price tags on Draftkings and Fanduel, respectively. On a slate with very few options that stand out, Junis shouldn’t see high ownership given the Mets’ recent success and that he is facing Jacob DeGrom who should easily be the highest owned pitcher on the slate.
Angels in a great spot vs. Santiago
Since 2017, Hector Santiago has a 5.06 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 8% K-BB and 50.6% FB rate and just a 16.3% soft contact rate, as well as a .354 xwOBA allowed and an 89.4 MPH aEV in 184 innings. Over 43 innings in AAA this year, Santiago had an uninspiring 5.57 xFIP and 12.7% BB rate. Though he’s a lefty, Santiago has actually been worse vs. lefties; since 2017, he owns a .390 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties compared to a .342 xwOBA vs. righties. Mike Trout (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kole Calhoun (.365), Albert Pujols (.350), Wilfredo Tovar (.333), David Fletcher (.321), Shoehei Ohtani (.285) Max Stassi (.222), Justin Upton (.226) are all options in the LAA projected order. Trout has been on fire recently with a .465 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, while Albert Pujols (.222) and Max Stassi (.124) have really struggled. Stassi might still be worth a shot at a price of just $2k on Draftkings. Projected leadoff man David Fletcher is just $3.4k on Draftkings and one of the better values on the slate. Justin Upton is just $4k on DK; he’s been bad this year but figures to turn it around soon as he has a 121 career wRC+ and has never finished below a 105 wRC+ in any season. The Angels have a healthy 5.79 implied total vs. Santiago and the White Sox.
Other tagged players: Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, David Fletcher, Max Stassi, Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols Underpriced Bats Against Overrated Pitcher
Anibal Sanchez tends to have reverse splits, but his underlying metrics show that he’s a much worse pitcher than it seems. I’m not sure why DraftKings priced down Milwaukee hitters so much tonight for this matchup, but I am quite sure many will be taking advantage of it. Moustakas & Grandal seem like top cash plays at 2B and C with Grisham also in that bucket if leading off at $2900. You can round out it with Braun & Thames to get a full stack price of only $17.2k, or include Yelich instead and it’s still under $20k. Be aware that these Milwaukee bats will likely be very chalky tonight in GPP and probably paired with deGrom + Twins/Rockies, so if you choose to go this route, look to differentiate elsewhere.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Trent Grisham, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun
Good Hitting Conditions Against Flyball Pitcher
Jakob Junis is not necessarily someone I target against often with stacks, but his propensity for giving up multi-homer games is too hard to ignore on a smaller-than-usual 9 game slate. The Mets currently have a 5.1 implied run total with the wind blowing out a bit and no bat with a projected ownership above 6%. With Coors expected to be popular tonight, you can take a shot in large-field GPPs with a Mets stack that even with Alonso & Conforto, only comes in at a little over $20k on DraftKings. Although they’re not the most ideal hitters, Rosario, Panik & Ramos all fill scarce positions (C, 2B, SS) while still batting at the top half of the order.
Other tagged players: Amed Rosario, Joe Panik, Wilson Ramos Attack This Pitcher With Lefties
Zac Eflin may only go 70 pitches tonight, but he struggles mightily against lefties. The Padres are getting a big ballpark upgrade with a fairly healthy 4.8 implied run total. At under $20k on DraftKings, the 5-man stack will be low owned and allow you to pay up for an expensive pitcher. Naylor, Hosmer, Mejia would be the top options with the platoon advantage and completing the stack with two of Machado, Refroe or Urias makes the most sense if you choose to go that route.
Other tagged players: Luis Urias, Eric Hosmer, Francisco Mejia German Marquez has a 2.97 xFIP and 25.2% K rate over the past 30 days
This slate is pretty dry at SP, so we need to get a bit creative here to find some value. Although Marquez is pitching in Coors, there are a few reasons to like him tonight, especially in GPPs. He’s had a bit of an up and down season but has seemingly found a groove over the past month with a 3.27 ERA / 2.97 xFIP, 28.5% K rate / 3.3% BB rate and a 13.9% SwStr. Marquez is facing the Marlins tonight at home, who have just a 75 wRC+ and 25% K Rate vs. RHP this year. They also have a league-worst 77 wRC+ over the past 30 days and were shut out last night in Coors. Rostering any pitcher in Coors is a risky sentiment, but Marquez has fared decently well at home: since 2018, he has a 3.14 xFIP, 19.6% K-BB and a .307 xwOBA allowed in home starts. Marquez is also much better vs. righties as he has allowed a .331 xwOBA and 14.1% K-BB vs. lefties compared to a .263 xwOBA allowed and 26.9% K-BB (!) vs. righties since 2018. The Marlins project to have just 3 left-handed bats in their order tonight. Given how this slate is lacking at SP, there aren’t many guys with Marquez’s upside in his price range tonight. The Marlins currently have a 4.36 implied total.
Rangers are an intriguing stack vs. Berrios
Normally a guy to avoid when choosing hitters, there are a few reasons it might be wise to get some exposure to Rangers’ bats tonight. Already very hitter-friendly Globe Life Park projects to see a further increase in overall offense per WeatherEdge. Jose Berrios has some wide splits that we can target, one of which being his home-road split. Since 2017, Berrios has a 2.93 ERA, 20% K-BB and .277 xwOBA allowed in home games, compared to a 4.44 ERA, 13.6% K-BB and .316 xwOBA in road games. He is also much worse versus lefties; he has a 18.8% K-BB and .280 xwOBA allowed vs. righties compared to a 14.5% K-BB and .315 xwOBA vs. lefties. The Rangers have 5 lefties in their projected lineup for tonight’s matchup at home: Shin-Soo Choo (.378 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nomar Mazara (.354), Danny Santana (.344), Willie Calhoun (.320) and Rougned Odor (.307). Logan Forsythe (.363) and Elvis Andrus (.303) are also potential options, but will not have the platoon advantage versus Berrios. Given the hitting environment, Rangers’ hitters are pretty cheap as Choo, Andrus, Mazara, Odor and Forsythe are all $4.1k or less on Draftkings, while Calhoun is $4.4k and Santana is $4.7k. Also working in Rangers’ hitters favor is a hitter-friendly umpire in Paul Hoberg. They currently have a 5.20 implied line vs. Berrios and the Twins.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus, Logan Forsythe, Danny Santana, Willie Calhoun Jose Suarez is crazy cheap across the industry despite great matchup
Jose Suarez has had a rough time so far in his rookie year as he has a 6.57 ERA over 49 and 1/3 innings pitched. However, he does have a 4.91 SIERA, 12.7% K-BB, 11.7% SwStr, .330 xwOBA allowed and 86.4 MPH aEV which all show that he probably hasn’t been nearly as bad as his ERA suggests. Suarez gets a matchup vs. the White Sox tonight who do have a respectable 101 wRC+, but that comes with the highest BABIP vs. LHP in the league (.342) that suggests they’ve been a bit lucky. By xwOBA, the White Sox have been the 5th worst vs. LHP with a .302 mark on the year. Suarez’s price is what makes him most intriguing, as he is a dirt cheap $4.9k on Draftkings and not much more on Fanduel at $5.8k, creating room for some of the higher priced bats on the slate. He projects as by far the best PTS/$ arm on the slate. Suarez will have the added benefit of an extremely pitcher friendly umpire calling balls and strikes in Doug Eddings. He also projects to have Max Stassi behind the plate, one of the better pitch framers in baseball. Currently, the White Sox have just a 4.40 implied total vs. Suarez and the Angels for tonight.
Sneaky Stack
I like the Dodgers as a sneaky stack today against Mike Foltynewicz. The Dodgers get a park upgrade going into Atlanta and all of their guys in their projected lineup have a .239 ISO or higher to right-handed pitching. Foltynewicz has been solid over his last few outings, but he is still giving up a .264 ISO, .355 wOBA, and a 47% fly ball rate to lefty bats. The Dodgers definitely have the power to get to Foltynewicz and they should be a good low owned stack in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Corey Seager, Justin Turner
Big Discount, Big Upside
In a world where there are no salary constraints Jacob deGrom would be Saturday’s top option. Alas, we live in no such world and Eduardo Rodriguez offers a massive $3,100 discount from deGrom on FanDuel and is $2,600 cheaper on DraftKings. Rodriguez has been far from consistent this season but draws an excellent home matchup against an Orioles offense that leads the league with a 26.3% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching and owns the fifth worst wRC+ (86).
Favorite One-Off
Christian Yelich is one of my top bats in tournaments. We get him at a little price discount on DK, where he is $5,100, and he gets Anibal Sanchez, who struggles a little more to lefties this year by giving up a .204 ISO and a .348 wOBA. Yelich has a .403 ISO, .496 wOBA, and a 53% hard hit rate this year against righties. With so many options in the outfield today, hopefully we get a lower ownership on Yelich in GPPs.
Favorite GPP Arm
German Marquez is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate. He gets one of the best possible matchups, at home, in Coors, against the Miami Marlins, who are one of the worst teams against right-handed pitching, ranking 6th in strikeout rate, 30th in wOBA, and 30th in ISO. Marquez has handled righties well this year with a 28% strikeout rate and a low walk rate of 3.6%. This matchup is at home, which could lower his ownership, so I think its a great spot in tournaments in one of the best possible matchups.
Paying Up To Be Contrarian
With Coors on this slate, a lot of people won’t want to pay the high price tag for DeGrom, which could have him going a little overlooked. He gets the Royals, who against right-handed pitching are 25th in wOBA and 27th in ISO. They are a little tougher as a team with striking out, but deGrom is so elite that he could easily have double-digit strikeouts in this matchup. On this slate, he is 1st in swinging strike rate at 15.4% and 2nd in strikeout rate at 31.6%. I do think paying up will make you a little different on this slate, which is why I like him for tournaments.
Top Hitter On Slate
Essentially every Rockies hitter is in play in all formats on Saturday night in a home game against Hector Noesi but Trevor Story gets the nod as my favorite option. Story is arguably the top hitter on the slate in terms of raw projection and has relatively little competition as he headlines a weak SS position. Noesi has been poor through his two Major League starts this season due to his inability to generate soft contact (13.8 Soft%) and induce ground balls (27.6 GB%).