DFS Alerts
Red Sox have highest total on the slate vs. Aaron Brooks
Despite a Coors game on tonight’s slate, the Red Sox currently own the highest implied total on the slate at 7.83. They are at home facing Aaron Brooks, who has an atrocious 6.35 ERA and 5.28 xFIP with an 11.9% K-BB, 39.3% hard contact rate and 8.5% SwStr. He also owns a .369 xwOBA allowed, .522 xSLG allowed, a 9.8% barrel rate and an 89.2 MPH aEV. Brooks has been more vulnerable vs. LHP this year over a 72 inning sample; he’s allowed a .343 xwOBA vs. righties compared to a .398 xwOBA vs. lefties. Given Brooks’ ineffectiveness, the Red Sox project to get plenty of plate appearances versus the Orioles’ bullpen, who has collectively allowed a 4th worst .348 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Mookie Betts (.405 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Rafael Devers (.395), JD Martinez (.383), Mitch Moreland (.367), Xander Bogaerts (.355), Andrew Benintendi (.330) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.326) are all great options. JD Martinez has been the hottest Red Sox hitter with a .416 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Benintendi, Moreland and Bradley Jr. are the only aforementioned players who do not have a $5k+ salary on Draftkings. Bradley is in a bit of a slump (.278 xwOBA over the past 14 days) but is just $3.8k on DK and is a cheap and likely contrarian way to get some exposure to the Red Sox lineup.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley
Cheap Power + Favorable Park Shift
San Diego hitters get a massive park shift in their favor with this game taking place in Philadelphia and the matchup is a good one for power as Vincent Velasquez has already given up 20 HRs in 82.3 IP this season. Despite a respectable 4.30 ERA and 25.5% strikeout rate, VV’s batted ball profile is concerning as the owner of a 33.3% groundball rate and 46.1% hard-hit rate. Simply put, hard-hit fly balls means an increase in HRs for the opposition. Josh Naylor is a power prospect and has flashed his muscle at times this season with a .214 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Price Tag + Context + Pop
It’s rare we get a top of the order bat playing in Coors that is this not only cheap but also plays at a weak position. Favorable context aside, Diaz showed a lot of power this season in the Minors with 26 HRs in 435 plate appearances and provides you with some decent pop for his price tag. There are better hitters on the slate but I consider Diaz a core piece of builds in all formats because of his price tag, context, and pop.
Luis Castillo has 2.35 ERA, 28.6 % K rate and .255 xwOBA allowed in home starts this year
Though Luis Castillo is likely due for some regression based on the difference between his ERA (2.69) and peripherals (3.54 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA) it’s not the time to shy away from him. Castillo gets a matchup at home tonight with the Cardinals, who have just a 66 wRC+ and 26.5% K rate over the past 2 weeks. On the season they have just an 86 wRC+ and 23.3% K rate vs. RHP. The Cardinals projected lineup has just one batter (Marcell Ozuna) who has an xwOBA greater than .335 vs. RHP on the year. As I’ve said in quite a few Castillo blurbs, he’s a much better pitcher in home starts over a large sample: since 2017, Castillo has a 2.99 ERA / 3.20 xFIP with a 21.1% K-BB and .266 xwOBA allowed in 223 home innings pitched, compared to a 4.05 ERA / 4.04 xFIP, 13.9% K-BB and .322 xwOBA allowed in 180 road IP. Castillo is also much better vs. righties (.268 xwOBA and 18.7% K-BB vs. RHB, .315 xwOBA and 16.8% K-BB vs. LHB) and is projected to face just 3 lefties in the Cardinals’ order tonight. The Cardinals currently have a 4.16 implied line which feels a bit high and should hopefully help to keep Castillo’s ownership somewhat low.
Alcantara has slate-worst 5.99 SIERA over past 30 days (min. 20 IP) coming into Coors start tonight
Over the past 30 days, Alcantara has a 6.35 ERA, 6.43 xFIP and 5.99 SIERA with a 5.7% K-BB. For the year he now owns a 4.44 ERA with a 5.58 xFIP and 5.66 SIERA as his ERA slowly regresses towards his peripherals after outpitching them for most of the season. Alcantara’s “contact manager” style might work in pitcher-friendly Marlins park, but the lack of swing and miss stuff (16.8% K rate) and lack of control (11.1% BB rate) is much less likely to work in Coors where he’ll have much less fortune on balls in play. Also working in Rockies’ hitters favor is that the Marlins have posted a 2nd worst .351 xwOBA allowed out of the bullpen in the past month. Charlie Blackmon (.363 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Trevor Story (.342), Ryan McMahon (.335), Nolan Arenado (.322), Raimel Tapia (.306) and Ian Desmond (.294) are all good options in the projected order. Charlie Blackmon has been their hottest hitter with a .436 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Trevor Story with a .403 mark. Tapia, McMahon, and Desmond are all $4.7k or less on Draftkings. Daniel Murphy is just $4.1k and projects to hit towards the front of the order, but has just a .280 xwOBA on the year vs. RHP. The Rockies currently have a healthy 7.67 implied total.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia, Sandy Alcantara Patrick Sandoval is a great mid-range SP option vs. White Sox
Patrick Sandoval will be making his 2nd career start tonight vs. the White Sox, who come into this game with a 12th ranked 101 wRC+ and 23.9% K rate vs. LHP. Their 101 wRC+ feels a bit lucky, as they do own the league’s highest BABIP vs. LHP (.342) and their xwOBA vs. LHP on the year is just .302 (26th in the league). The White Sox have just one hitter in their projected lineup (Jose Abreu) that has an xwOBA greater than .335 vs. LHP on the year. Sandoval is not a top prospect; he owns a Future Value of 40 and did struggle to a 5.01 xFIP over 60 1/3 innings in AAA this year. However, he flashed some very good numbers in the minors in 2017-2018 and has posted very good K rates throughout his minors career. Projection systems (notoriously conservative with young players) currently have him pegged as a 4.75 ERA / 8.3 K/9 guy going forward. In addition to a nice matchup tonight, Sandoval will get a very pitcher-friendly ump behind the plate tonight in Bill Miller, as well as likely working with great pitch framer Max Stassi. Sandoval is $7.1k on Fanduel and $7.8k on Draftkings tonight and provides pretty good upside for that price range, albeit with a wide range of outcomes. The White Sox currently have a 4.16 implied line for tonight.
Charlie Morton worth the high price tonight vs. Tigers
As it stands right now, this is the 3rd year in a row that Charlie Morton has improved his ERA, K% and SwStr%. For the season, he’s sitting at a 2.90 ERA, 3.25 xFIP and 3.54 SIERA with a 30.5% K rate, 7.1% BB rate, 33.2% hard contact rate, 48.6% GB rate and 12.9% SwStr. He also owns just a .270 xwOBA, 5.1% barrel rate and 86.7 MPH aEV per Statcast. Tonight faces the Tigers tonight at home, who have a league-worst 74 wRC+ vs. RHP with a 26.1% K rate. They also have just an 82 wRC+ over the past 30 days, and their projected lineup does not have a single player with an xwOBA greater than .340 vs. RHP this year. Morton is a bit better in home starts; since his breakout 2017, he’s posted a 3.17 xFIP with a 22.5% K-BB and .274 xwOBA at home, compared to a 3.72 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB and .295 xwOBA on the road. The Tigers currently have just a 2.56 implied line; Morton has a good chance of getting a ‘W’ as the Rays are -310 favorites. Morton is in the $11k range on both major sites tonight and is looking like the premier ace pitcher on this slate.
Smash Spot Against WOAT Pitching
I always struggle deciding between J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts, and I see both of them as potential core plays on this slate. At the very least, I want exposure to one of them in this smash spot against the Orioles. I give J.D. a slight lean, but I have no problem if you lean Betts. The Red Sox are my top offense on this slate, and that’s saying something when you have the Rockies in Coors with a massive 7.7 implied team total. Aaron Brooks has shown no ability yet to get batters out on a consistent basis, allowing seven home runs in his last three starts. Behind him is the worst bullpen in baseball that J.D. and company should feast on. I love Red Sox stacks and I want as much exposure to J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts as I can get.
Lefty Slugger In Prime Spot
It feels weird to be writing up Daniel Murphy as a core play, but the stars align here. For one, he’s cheap across the industry and gives you access to the Rockies, who have the highest implied team total on this slate without breaking the bank. Secondly, it’s likely he bats cleanup. Thirdly, he faces Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed 11 of his 16 homers this season to lefties. There are no shortage of good 1st basemen on this slate, but several of my favorite ones are in tougher matchups (Rhys Hoskins vs Chris Paddack, C.J. Cron vs Mike Minor, Paul Goldschmidt vs Luis Castillo). With these factors in mind, I’m viewing Murphy as a strong play today where you can get Coors exposure and still have funds to pay up for pitching, which is a priority today.
Ace Looking To Tame Tigers
There are a ton of aces on this slate, and I think it makes sense to pay up for one of them as your SP1 as it’s unlikely they all fail. Charlie Morton is my preferred option for cash games. The matchup against the Tigers and the discount we get by dropping down from Justin Verlander is slight, but I’m viewing him as my SP1. I have no problem if you want to pay up and use Verlander, but I don’t think it’s a necessity with Morton in a better spot and at a cheaper price point. He’s facing a Tigers offense that has the 3rd highest strikeout rate in the Majors against right-handed pitching while also ranking in the bottom-two in terms of team wRC+, making this a matchup he should win.
Joey Votto scratched Thursday; Josh VanMeter replaces
Votto has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Josh VanMeter, who will now play first base and slot directly into Votto’s vacated second spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Reds lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Michael Wacha at home this evening.
As reported by: C. Trent Rosecrans Other tagged players: Josh VanMeter
Javier Baez (illness) scratched Thursday; Ian Happ replaces
Baez has been scratched from the Chicago Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Thursday’s matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ian Happ, who will now second base and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Cubs batting order but, most notably, bumps Anthony Rizzo all the way up to leadoff and slides Albert Almora Jr down to ninth, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Chicago faces off against left-hander Drew Smyly on the road this evening.
As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter Other tagged players: Ian Happ Top Offense on the Slate
The Twins are in an elite spot against Payano and the Rangers tonight. This is an elite offense against a bad pitcher with control problems. Anything and everything about the full GPP stack is in play with the Twins owning an implied team total over six runs. Marwin Gonzalez is a great value in the middle of the order, while Polanco and Kepler have elite splits against RHP. Arraez is proving to be a professional hitter. Target them all with confidence in GPP formats.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez
Not Pitching At Home
Peralta is right at that price point for value, but I really like this matchup for him. Dereck Rodriguez has really struggled with left-handed hitters this season. He has a .376 wOBA with a .243 ISO and a 15.9% strikeout rate against lefties this season. He’s also allowing 44.8% hard contact, which really hurts him when he’s not pitching at home. Despite battling injuries this season, Peralta has a .222 ISO with a .378 wOBA and a 41.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching.
We Have To Play Two Guys
You never feel good about playing Aaron Sanchez, but with limited options on this slate, he’s worth a look in this price range. I said it on the Morning Grind: I really don’t mind a stack against him either. In his two games since joining Houston, he has only allowed one run while striking out 12 hitters in 11 innings. I worry about the five walks, and the low (.000 and .231) BABIP in those two outings. He’s getting a ballpark upgrade and facing a team with some strikeout upside in the lineup.