DFS Alerts

Top Stack

The Twins are my favorite stack outside of Coors today. They get the lefty Danny Duffy who this year is giving up a 41% hard hit rate and a 39% fly ball rate. The Twins are one of the best teams in the majors against left handed pitching ranking 2nd in both ISO and wOBA. In my stack the first three I am locking in are Cruz, Sano, and Garver, who all have a .368 or higher ISO against lefties this year.

Top One Off Bat

Charlie Blackman is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. He gets the lefty Madison Bumgarner on the mound. We have seen this so many times, when he gets a lefty matchup people shy away from Blackmon. Blackmon this year has been solid against lefties with a .256 ISO, .393 wOBA, and he gets this game at home in Coors. Blackmon is expensive across all sites, and with this matchup I believe we get him at low ownership, which makes him a great GPP play.

Contrarian Mid Tier SP

Jon Gray in tournaments should have low ownership with the game being played in Coors Field. He gets the Giants who are middle of the pack in strikeouts to righties but are 24th in ISO and 26th in wOBA. Gray this season has a 24% strikeout rate, 12.2% swinging strike rate, and in 3 of his last 4 home games he has put up at least 21 DK points pitching at home in Coors Field. With low ownership Gray could provide a ton of upside in this matchup.

Top SP Stud To Spend Up For

We have a lot of good pitching options on this slate, but my favorite spend up in tournaments is Matt Boyd. He is tops on this slate in both strikeout rate at 32.5% and swinging strike rate at 14.2%. He gets a very good matchup against a Texas team that is 4th in the majors in strikeout rate to left handed pitching at 26%. Boyd has double digit strikeout performances in 4 of his last 6 outings. I believe with all the good options at the top Boyd’s ownership will not be as high as it should.

Taking Advantage of Coors Field

Yes, the Rockies are facing Madison Bumgarner this evening. That’s of little concern to me with Story and Arenado. Bumgarner is allowing a .320 wOBA to RHBs this year to go along with a 46% hard contact rate and a massive fly ball lean. That plays right into the skill sets of the two Colorado sluggers. There’s little to differentiate Story and Arenado, both of whom have elite home splits against left-handed pitching. I’m siding with Story as my top play because of the way the positions lay out on this slate, and I prefer to utilize him as a shortstop. Still, you can’t go wrong either way.

Nice Upside in a Fine Matchup

There are a lot of solid arms on tonight’s slate, with Nola and Buehler grading out as my favorite options. It is very difficult to side between the two, but I am giving a slight edge in safety to Nola. He has a 2.52 ERA over six July starts, with some tough matchups mixed in there, as he has faced Atlanta twice and the Dodgers once in those six outings. Tonight’s matchup is a favorable one against a White Sox team that ranks 28th in the league with a .293 team wOBA against RHP this year (ahead of only DET and MIA). They also have the second highest team strikeout rate against RHP. The Phillies need innings from Nola after playing a 15 inning game on Friday, as well. The stars are aligned for a solid game.

Byron Buxton scratched Friday; Ehire Adrianza replaces

Buxton has been scratched from the Minnesota Twins original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ehire Adrianza, who will now play first base and slot directly into Buxton’s vacated ninth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Twins lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Glenn Sparkman at home this evening.

Twins have the highest non-Coors total on the board (6.75) vs. Sparkman

Glenn Sparkman has had a pretty abysmal year, posting a 5.25 ERA, 5.50 xFIP and 5.43 SIERA with just a 12.8% K rate, 5.7% BB rate, 2.04 HR/9, a 41.2% Hard contact rate and a 7.3% SwStr. Sparkman has also allowed a .365 xwOBA, with a 7.8% barrel rate and an ugly 90.7 MPH aEV. The Twins have mashed RHP with a 5th best 113 wRC+ on the year, and have a number of good options in their lineup tonight. Nelson Cruz (.407 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jorge Polanco (.366), Max Kepler (.364), Eddie Rosario (.344), Luis Arraez (.334), Miguel Sano (.330), Marwin Gonzalez (.322) and Byron Buxton (.309) are all good options in the projected order. Cruz has been by far their hottest hitter with a .488 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Max Kepler (.444) and Miguel Sano (.409). Most of these guys will cost $4.7k + on Draftkings, but Marwin Gonzalez ($3.5k) and Luis Arraez ($3.9k) are great value plays. The Twins have a 6.75 implied total tonight vs. Sparkman and the Royals.

White Sox have value and upside in their lineup vs. Vargas

The White Sox are priced as though they are facing an ace, but in reality they are facing a pitcher in Vargas that has a 5.21 xFIP, 5.08 SIERA, 42.9% FB rate and 10.5% K-BB. Vargas has the platoon advantage against just one batter in the White Sox lineup tonight in his first start with his new team. The White Sox have been ice cold with a league worst 71 wRC+ over the past 30 days, which will hopefully drive down ownership for this matchup. Jose Abreu (.348 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), James Mccann (.330), Eloy Jimenez (.323), Tim Anderson (.311), and Leury Garcia (.303) are all in play. All White Sox hitters are available under $4k on Draftkings and are also available on Fanduel for $3k or less; they have some solid cash options in the lineup and make for an interesting GPP stack as well, as there is some leverage to be had with Vargas projected as one of the higher-owned pitchers on the slate. The White Sox currently have a 4.23 implied line.

O/U is sitting at 14 in matchup between SFG and COL in Coors tonight

There are plenty of great options on both teams tonight in Coors as two mediocre pitchers are toeing the slab in the best hitting environment in baseball. The Rockies have the higher total at 7.56 and will be facing Shaun Anderson. Anderson is certainly not cut out for Coors as he has just a 16.1% K rate and 8.6% SwStr. On the year he has a 5.06 ERA / 4.66 xFIP / 5.16 SIERA with a 8.2% K-BB and .358 xwOBA allowed. Charlie Blackmon (.388 xwOBA vs. RHP at home this year), Trevor Story (.379), Nolan Arenado (.358), Ryan McMahon (.354) and David Dahl (.347) are all obvious plays tonight. McMahon will be the cheapest of the bunch but will likely hit towards the bottom of the order. Tony Wolters (.278) is a nice value option at catcher at just $3.2k on Draftkings. Ian Desmond (.287) and Daniel Murphy (.285) have failed to take advantage of Coors field thus far but are certainly still in play.

The Giants currently have a 6.44 implied line and versus Peter Lambert, who actually profiles similarly to Anderson. Lambert has struck out just 17.2% of batters and owns just a 7.4% SwStr, not exactly a profile that plays at Coors. He does own a solid 48.1% GB rate, though he also owns a 23.8% HR/FB and 1.96 HR/9. Brandon Belt (.366 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Stephen Vogt (.357), Buster Posey (.345), Donavan Solano (.332), Austin Slater (.327) and Mike Yastrzemski (.316) are all options tonight. Belt is especially intriguing, leading off at a price of just $4k on Draftkings.

When you already have a nickname before you arrive in the major leagues, you might be a big deal. Dustin May is affectionately known as Gingergaard. The long red hair would be the obvious part, but comparisons to Syndergaard would necessitate some pitching talent as well. May is currently the top-ranked pitcher in the Dodger system according to Fangraphs with an impressive 60 Future Value grade. A 70 grade potential on his slider is the standout here. While May wasn’t blazing through AAA at the time of his call up (21.1 K% through 27.1 IP), he’s just 21 years-old and struck out 25.8% of AA batters (19.8 K-BB%) in 79.1 innings this year. Projections of instant dominance are perhaps a bit enthusiastic, but May has also generated at least a 49.9 GB% at every stop through the system, including a 60% rate at AAA. He’s opening at a reasonable cost of $7.6K on DraftKings and much less on FanDuel ($5.8K) in a fine spot against the Padres (91 wRC+, 26 K% vs RHP) and has pitched into the sixth inning in half of his 20 minor league starts this year. May has the requisite upside of a top prospect and may be worth a flyer tonight, but doesn’t appear to be a must own yet in his major league debut.

Kevin Gausman could be a good value vs. Cincy

It’s hard to find good pitching on this slate and we might have to give some guys a look that we’d normally ignore. Kevin Gausman has been pretty bad this year with a 5.97 ERA, 4.47 xFIP and 4.37 SIERA with a 16.4% K-BB. However, he does have a few things going for him. In 2 starts since returning from the IL, Gausman has posted an impressive 28.3% K-BB and 13.1% SwStr along with a solid 3.86 xFIP and 3.53 SIERA. He gets a matchup today with the Reds, whose lineup isn’t all that intimidating as they have just 3 batters with an xwOBA above .320 vs. RHP this year in the lineup. Overall, the Reds have just an 87 wRC+ and 23.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Gausman will also have the advantage of one of the league’s best pitch framers in Tyler Flowers behind the plate. The Reds currently have a 3.98 implied total tonight vs. Gausman. Gausman is especially intriguing on Fanduel, where his salary is just $6.3k compared to an $8.3k price on Draftkings. On such a tough slate for pitching, Gausman has a good shot at being one of the better PTS/$ pitchers on the board tonight.

Joe Ross has shown few signs he's ready to pitch at the major league level (.424 xwOBA, 11.8% Barrels/BBE)

Joe Ross has been hammered for 17 runs over his last four appearances (12 IP), but has struck out 13 of his last 49 batters. He may not be as bad as his 9.85 ERA, but his underlying metrics are still terrible (5.90 FIP, 6.46 DRA, .424 xwOBA, 11.8% Barrels/BBE, 47.1% 95+ mph EV), through 24.2 innings. Since his return from injury last September, batters from either side of the plate have hammered for a wOBA and xwOBA above .380. It’s not a large sample, but Ross has shown few signs that he’s fit to pitch at the major league level. Even a below average Jarrod Dyson (83 wRC+, .120 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has some value in the leadoff spot here. Strangely, though, the best bat in the lineup (David Peralta 141 wRC+, .143 ISO) is only the fourth highest priced on Draftkings ($4K). While the Diamondbacks are implied for a healthy 5.34 runs tonight, there are still eight teams with a higher total. They are generally a below average offense vs RHP (91 wRC+, 13.6 HR/FB), but this lineup has rarely been at full strength this season, which it appears to be now. Eduardo Escobar (93 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Ketel Marte (122 wRC+, .198 ISO) are the most expensive bats in the lineup, but project strongly too.

Cheap Way Off-The-Board Stack

Let me be clear. Humberto Arteaga is not a good baseball player, but he’s minimum price on DraftKings that fills a scarce SS position. The Royals are on the road with a ballpark upgrade and Martin Perez has already regressed from the quality starts he was seeing earlier in the season. Whit Merrifield is priced down at $4400 at 2B, and alongside Dozier & Soler, they’ll all have the platoon advantage in this matchup. The 5-man stack cost with Arteaga is a dirt cheap $17.5k, will garner less than 3% ownership each, and allows you to pay out for pitching as well as pair with an expensive 3-man stack in your lineup. Just be aware this play is strictly for large-field GPPs and not for the faint of heart.

Wade Miley has a 2.03 ERA and .269 xwOBA allowed over the past 30 days

Projection systems have pegged Wade Miley for regression all year and continue to despite Miley continuing to post solid start after solid start. Miley’s estimators (4.34 xFIP, 4.52 SIERA) are well ahead of his impressive 3.06 ERA, which is at least partly due to his middling 12.7% K-BB. Miley excels at inducing weak contact and grounders; he’s posted a 53.3% GB rate with a .304 xwOBA on contact that’s among the best in the league among starters. Overall, he’s allowed just a .275 xwOBA and 4.9% barrel rate, which goes to show that the traditional estimators and projection systems are likely misjudging him at least a little bit. Miley gets a great matchup today versus the Mariners, who has just a 25th ranked .290 xwOBA vs. LHP over the past 30 days. The Mariners currently have an implied total of just 3.48 implied runs. Miley projects to have the platoon advantage against 5 of 9 Mariners hitters. He doesn’t have huge upside (20.5% K rate on the year) but we can’t be too picky as pitching is very rough on this slate, and Miley shouldn’t have a problem preventing runs and working deep into the game in this matchup. He also has a good shot at the ‘W’ as the Astros are currently -300 favorites.