DFS Alerts

Astros have destroyed LHP this season (135 wRC+)

Yusei Kikuchi has faced the Astros once this season, about a month ago in Houston. The Astros scored five runs against him in that game and should be in a position to do similar damage here. Kikuchi has allowed multiple HRs in six of his last 13 starts and now has an 18.2 HR/FB that exceeds his 16.6 K% with a 5.21 ERA supported by all of his estimators above five. While Houston is a negative run environment, this offense is now at full strength and has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this year (135 wRC+, 6.5 K-BB%, 16.2 HR/FB). The projected lineup for Houston includes eight RHBs, while Kikuchi has surrendered a .348 wOBA with a matching .340 xwOBA. Every single batter in the projected lineup is above a 110 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year, while Robinson Chirinos (114 wRC+, .155 ISO) is the only RHB below a .200 ISO. Jose Altuve (218 wRC+, .356 ISO) has looked fairly healthy of late. George Springer (150 wRC+, .200 ISO), Alex Bregman (155 wRC+, .265 ISO), Carlos Correa (143 wRC+, .212 ISO) and even Yulieski Gurriel (154 wRC+, .274 ISO) have handed out an abundance of punishment to southpaws.

Hot Toronto bats (138 wRC+, 24.7 HR/FB last seven days) led by children of former stars

Aaron Brooks stretched out to 23 batters last time out, but has allowed 11 runs over his last 8.2 innings. It’s difficult to find anything encouraging in his profile, which includes a 5.46 ERA, 6.29 DRA, 90.9 Z-Contact%, .365 xwOBA and 42.1% 95+ mph EV. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are suddenly red hot (138 wRC+, 24.7 HR/FB last seven days), being led by the rookie offspring of former major league stars. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (126 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP) and Bo Bichette each have a wRC+ above .200 over the last week, while Cavan Biggio (113 wRC+, .236 ISO) has a projected lineup best 52.6 Hard% over that span. With the Blue Jays yet to confirm a starter tonight, oddsmakers have not yet set a line for this game, but it’s probably safe to assume a team total somewhere around five for the Blue Jays tonight.

James Paxton has an xwOBA 50 points below his actual mark and may be under-valued

James Paxton struck out nine of 21 Red Sox and six of 19 Rockies, but was hammered by both teams (14 R in 7.1 IP with five HRs). He’s allowed some hard contact (89.3 mph aEV), but the .371 BABIP is surreal without anything to strongly support it (22.4 LD%, 38.4 B%, 12.9 IFFB%, 81 Z-Contact%), while his .308 xwOBA is a full 50 points below his actual mark. Over the last month, his xwOBA has actually improved (.289) and is 136 points below his actual mark over that span. The Red Sox are improving against LHP (101 wRC+, 21.2 K%, 17.1 HR/FB) and the hottest offense on the board by wRC+ (143 last seven days), but the latter is not substantiated by peripherals at all (21.1 K-BB% last seven days). Looking at Paxton’s velocity, his 96.3 mph average last time out was tied for his second best mark of the season. This leads us to a scenario where Paxton may be under-valued. This is still a difficult matchup in a difficult park, but with elite upside and the likelihood of positive regression, there appears to be value in a price tag below $9K on either site, perhaps with low ownership as well after what the Red Sox did to him at Fenway last time out. Encouragingly, the total for this game has dropped since opening despite what appears a lack of public backing.

Cheap Stack Against Voodoo Magic Pitcher

Jason Vargas must have some type of voodoo magic this season to come out unscathed with only a .253 BABIP on 42.9% fly balls and a hard hit rate of 38.4%. Now that he’s pitching in a more hitter friendly ballpark, I expect some regression, and it could come tonight even against a high strikeout White Sox lineup. Although they lose the DH, the top 5 bats in their order are all under $4k on DraftKings and gives you the ability to fill both scarce positional slots at C and SS. Jose Abreu is especially interesting in GPP as his ownership should be significantly under his expectation with Brandon Belt, underpriced in Coors, almost definitely being the chalk at 1B. At only $18.4k total salary, a full 5-man White Sox stack is not crazy at all in GPP lineup builds that pay up for pitching or expensive one-off power bats in other games.

He Costs How Much?

I have plenty of respect for Eduardo Rodriguez, but on DK/FDRFT, the salaries on the Yankees right-handed power bats are just ridiculously low. Aaron Judge has been a $5k/$10k bat basically all season and now he has dropped below $4k/$8k overnight. He is joined in the unwarranted salary drops by teammates Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres and Edwin Encarnacion. This is just too much power for these salaries and I would play Judge in all formats tonight.

Contrarian One-Off

Anthony Rendon is an excellent tournament option against Robbie Ray. He has been great against lefties this year with a .301 ISO, .441 wOBA, and a 50% hard hit rate, while Ray is a really good strikeout pitcher but at times struggles with the home run ball. Rendon is in a great spot and should be low owned in GPPs.

Power Bat With Ideal Splits and Hitting Environment

The Giants get a trip to Coors Field and their best hitter has not seen a significant salary boost. Brandon Belt has strong plate skills that give him an on base floor to go along with his fly balls that get the huge ballpark boost in Colorado. The Rockies’ Peter Lambert has allowed a goofy .310 ISO on 50% hard contact to lefties this season and has below average strikeouts to go along with it.

Steven Matz shut out the Pirates (73 wRC+ vs LHP) this past weekend, costs < $8K in rematch

Steven Matz faced these Pirates over the weekend and threw a five hit shutout in just 99 pitchers, striking out seven. He’s now allowed just four runs in 19 innings since the break. Part of that is opposition based. The Pirates own just an embarrassing 73 wRC+ vs LHP, which includes a 23 K%, 4.7 BB% and 12.8 HR/FB. While Pittsburgh is not as negative a run environment as Citi Field, it’s still a fantastic park for a left-handed pitcher. Matz’s season numbers are now about league average (14.3 K-BB%, 4.32 ERA, 4.51 SIERA, 4.41 DRA, .336 xwOBA). His 10.7% Barrels/BBE is a problem and second highest on the board, but if there’s one thing that this park does more favorably for pitchers than his home park, it’s suppress RH power. To sum, we have a potentially league average pitcher facing a terrible offense in a decent park at a cost below $8K. Tonight’s highest priced pitchers are Lance Lynn (Tigers), Mike Clevinger (Angels) and Robbie Ray (Nationals), putting two of the three in poor spots tonight. It may be worth considering choosing your pitching from the middle of the board tonight.

Pivot Stack Off Coors

Houston is one of my favorite stacks outside of Coors, as they get the lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who has really struggled this year. He is giving up a .215 ISO, .358 wOBA, and a 34% hard hit rate this year to right-handed bats; meanwhile, Houston is a very patient team that doesn’t strike out a lot. This whole lineup is in play, but the four guys I want for sure are Altuve, Bregman, Springer, and Gurriel.

The Obvious Spot Is The Right Spot

It doesn’t get much better than two low strikeout pitchers squaring off at Coors Field. The only thing that makes it tough to load up are the high salaries, particularly on the Rockies side. But on FD, we’ve got a nice discount on David Dahl and Daniel Murphy to get access to the middle of the Rockies lineup. The Giants’ Shaun Anderson has struck out just 12.8% of lefties with just a moderate ground ball lean and no sign that he’s going to be able to limit hard contact.

Favorite Bat To Spend Up For

After getting some rest the past two games, Nelson Cruz should be back in the lineup today. He is one of my favorite spend-ups on the slate and he gets Glenn Sparkman on the mound. Sparkman has really struggled this season but more to lefties, so I feel like Cruz could get a little overlooked, especially with his expensive price tag. Over the last two weeks, Cruz has been on fire with a .491 ISO, .480 wOBA, 9 home runs, and 15 RBIs. With Coors on this slate and so many good outfield options, we should see lower ownership on Cruz.

Top SP In GPPs

Out of the top three studs on this slate to pay up for, I like Lynn the most. He gets one of the best possible matchups against the Detroit Tigers, who are first in strikeout rate, 28th in ISO, and 29th in wOBA to right-handed pitching. Lynn is the highest-priced pitcher on DK and second-highest on FanDuel. With him being so expensive and most people wanting to pay down at pitcher to allow for all of the bats, I think that we could get lower ownership on Lynn tonight.

I would always prefer a wait and see approach with rookies, but this is a difficult slate, and I’m willing to jump in with top prospect Dustin May. The Dodgers 21-year old gets a great first start at home against the high strikeout Padres, and his mix of control and ground balls should help him to success right away. It’s never without risk in a first career start, but the salary is right to take the shot.

Affordable Phillies in favorable matchup against Ivan Nova (5.02 SIERA, 7.55 DRA, .352 xwOBA)

Ivan Nova has allowed a single ER over his last 15 innings, but the profile (15 K%, 18.5 HR/FB) creates a far below average pitcher (5.23 ERA, 5.02 SIERA, 7.55 DRA, .352 xwOBA). The Phillies haven’t been very good against RHP (92 wRC+), but currently own the sixth highest implied run line on the board (5.79) in a power friendly park, against a pitcher who has allowed a wOBA and xwOBA between .329 and .350 to batters from either side of the plate over the last calendar year. A $3.5K or less Cesar Hernandez (101 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 193 wRC+ over the last week and adds value from the leadoff spot. In fact, not a single bat in the Philadelphia projected lineup is above $4.4K on DraftKings, giving Rhys Hoskins (127 wRC+, .266 ISO), Bryce Harper (134 wRC+, .212 ISO) and others in the top half of the lineup value as well.

Alex Verdugo (knee) scratched Thursday; Matt Beaty replaces

Verdugo has been scratched from the Los Angeles Dodgers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the San Diego Padres due to left knee soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Matt Beaty, who will now play left field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Kristopher Negron up to the seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Dodgers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Joey Lucchesi at home this evening.