DFS Alerts
Marco Gonzales is a solid SP option on the afternoon slate
Though Marco Gonzales hasn’t shown much upside this year (16% K rate) and hasn’t prevented runs too well either (4.37 ERA / 5.17 xFIP) he is in a good spot versus a terrible Tigers offense this afternoon. Gonzales will be pitching at home, where he’s been a more effective pitcher in his career. Since 2018, Gonzales has a .300 xwOBA allowed, 4.18 xFIP and 15.3% K-BB in home games compared to a .329 xwOBA allowed, 4.37 xFIP and 12.5% K-BB in road games. The Tigers come into this game with just an 87 wRC+ and 25.9% K rate vs. LHP on the year. They also have a 2nd worst 77 wRC+ and 26.8% K rate over the past 30 days. The Tigers have just 3 batters in their projected lineup (Castellanos, Cabrera, Goodrum) who have an xwOBA above .320 vs. LHP on the year. Gonzales has an inflated ERA over the past 30 days with a 7.36 mark, but he has also been a bit better in the K department with a 20.5% K rate and the 4.56 xFIP and .307 xwOBA allowed suggest he’s been much better than what the ERA says. The Tigers will have just a 4.01 implied total vs. Gonzales and the Mariners.
Carlos Santana (shoulder) scratched Friday; Mike Freeman replaces
Santana has been scratched from the Cleveland Indians original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals due to left shoulder soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Mike Freeman, who will now play first base and slot directly into Santana’s vacated third spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Indians lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jakob Junis on the road this evening.
As reported by: Zack Meisel via Twitter Other tagged players: Mike Freeman
Zach Plesac has estimators more than a run and a half above his 3.50 ERA
Zach Plesac isn’t just beating his estimators by a little. His 3.50 ERA is at least a run and a half below his SIERA, xFIP, FIP and DRA due to a .204 BABIP and 83 LOB%. He has just a 9.3 K-BB% and if you’re asking about a possible ability to suppress hard contact, that hasn’t been the case either with an 89.7 mph aEV, 9.9% Barrels/BBE, 17.2 HR/FB and .349 xwOBA some 42 points above his actual mark. This is all fixing to fall apart, though one wouldn’t necessarily suspect the Royals to be the offense that does him in. However, he’s facing them for the third time this month (8.2 IP – 4 ER – 5 BB – 7 K). The Royals are attacking him with seven RHBs, which isn’t a bad idea, considering Plesac’s .356 xwOBA and 48.4 Hard% against same handed batters this year. Hunter Dozier (140 wRC+, .284 ISO) and Jorge Soler (126 wRC+, .290 ISO) have hammered same handed pitching over the last calendar year. Whit Merrifield (124 wRC+, .155 ISO) has done so with less power. At 4.61 implied runs the Royals only find themselves in the middle of the board tonight, considering the matchup and an offensively friendly forecast, they could be an under the radar offense tonight.
Other tagged players: Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield
Jose Urquidy has a 20+ K-BB% at three different levels this year
Jose Urquidy is coming off a nine strikeout, seven inning, two hit effort against the Rangers after striking out just four in each of his first two outings at Coors and against the Angels, totaling just six innings. Having not reached a level higher than A-ball coming into the season, the 24 year-old was not considered much of a prospect until taking off at the upper levels (26.3 K-BB% at AA, 29.6 K-BB% at AAA) through 81.2 innings, a trait he’s continued through 13 major league innings now (28.6 K-BB%). It’s a small sample, but Urquidy has also impressively generated a 74.6 Z-Contact% and 30.3 Z-O-Swing% at the major league level so far. 13.2% Barrels/BBE seems like a fluke with an 84.5 mph aEV that would be best on the board. Urquidy certainly has some upside and it’s great to see the Astros are now ready to let him run deeper into games if the performance justifies it and it may very well tonight in St Louis. Aside from being a run and power suppressing environment, the Cardinal lineup remains a few key bats light and has just a 91 wRC+ with a 14.1 K-BB% vs RHP. The best part is that while Urquidy costs a reasonable $7.5K on FanDuel, his cost is just $5K on DraftKings, where he could easily be paired with a high priced pitcher like Zack Greinke tonight.
Say It Ain't So, Robby Cano
Who knew Robinson Cano had a three HR game in him at the ripe age of 36? Not I. While I wouldn’t expect continued power from Cano moving forward, he still finds himself in an absolute dream matchup on Friday night against Dario Agrazal. Agrazal is the owner of a sparkling 2.25 ERA but a massive 6.19 SIERA as he’s been beyond lucky through his first five starts this year. Agrazal’s strikeout numbers are laughable as he owns both the slate’s worst strikeout rate (10.4%) and SwStr% (5.6%). Cano is a cheap, has a good matchup, and plays at a weak position – you can’t ask for much more than that.
Don't Get It
DraftKings absolutely refuses to increase Justin Upton’s price tag and I just don’t understand it. It’s not that Upton has been great offensively this season but he has been better than his $3,900 price tag would indicate. The Angels continue to draw favorable matchups and Friday is no different as they’ll host Asher Wojciehowksi who is coming off a near no-hitter against the Red Sox. I wouldn’t expect similar success out of the Woj against the Angels as the 30-year old has struggled big time to post any sort of encouraging numbers throughout his career.
Yusei, I Say
Yusei Kikuchi…has not been good this season. The Detroit Tigers? Also not good. Matchup + price tag are the only reasons to give Kikuchi any sort of consideration on Friday night as the Mariners host the Tigers at pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park. Kikuchi’s upside is fairly limited as he’s not much of a strikeout pitcher but the Tigers have helped inflate opposing southpaws numbers all season long with the leagues fifth highest strikeout rate (25.9%) against lefties.
Power Hitting Offense Could Be In For Big Night Against Young Pitcher
White Sox starter Dylan Cease has only a 6.19 ERA across 16 Major League innings so far in his career, after putting up a 4.48 ERA in AAA earlier this season – numbers that indicate he could run into trouble with a Minnesota offense that ranks first in the majors in ISO and slugging percentage this year. Minnesota is a strong -165 favorite in this game with a run total of 10, giving the Twins offense a high 5.5+ team implied run total. With Cease not showing pronounced splits, I’ll be targeting the Minnesota power hitters in this game regardless of handedness, particularly Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Miguel Sano.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano
Beyond Impressive
Jose Urquidy was beyond impressive in his last start against the Rangers allowing just one run and striking out nine hitters over seven innings pitched. While it would be unrealistic to expect similar numbers out of Urquidy moving forward, his strong strikeout numbers don’t come as too much of a surprise as he had success missing bats in both AA (30.1 K%) and AAA (35.2 K%) this season. The Cardinals are swinging a hot bat but this still profiles as a favorable matchup for Urquidy who won’t have to face a DH with this game being played on the road at a NL park. My only hesitation with the young rookie is that he’ll likely be operating on a short leash – 80 pitches is a much more realistic expectation than the 98 he threw in his last start.
Possible to Get Tournament Leverage With Offense Facing Underpriced Pitcher
Houston starter Jose Urquidy is significantly underpriced on some sites today, and he will sure to be a popular pitcher, particularly on DraftKings where he is only $5,000. While I’ll certainly be using Urquidy in some lineups, if you are looking to get leverage in GPPs, stacking against Urquidy is not a terrible idea either. Urquidy gave up 10 home runs in only 48.2 AAA innings this season, and the St Louis offense has finally come to life with the 6th-highest ISO in MLB over the past two weeks after underperforming all season. I’ll be looking at the Cardinals power hitters hoping for extremely low ownership, particularly Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, and Dexter Fowler, along with Tommy Edman if he is hitting leadoff.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Dexter Fowler, Tommy Edman Wild Game Last Night Creates Uncertain Pitching Situation Tonight
The Orioles and Angels played a 16-inning marathon on Thursday night that went into the early morning hours on Friday, and concluded with outfielder Steve Wilkerson pitching and becoming the first position player to ever earn a save. Both team used their bullpen extensively, with the Orioles needing 14 innings of relief and the Angels using today’s scheduled starter, Griffin Canning, for two innings. With both bullpens depleted, tonight’s game should be interesting, and we could see position players pitching again if things get out of hand in either direction. With even the starters uncertain at this point, I’ll just be targeting the best hitters on each team – Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for Los Angeles, and Trey Mancini and Jonathan Villar for Baltimore.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar Giants are an intriguing contrarian stack vs. Lucchesi
Playing in hitter friendly Petco Park against a solid pitcher in Joey Lucchesi, the Giants have just a 3.68 implied total and are a dart-throw stack option on a slate full of more obvious options. Fortunately, they will be very low-owned and are probably in a better spot than what their total shows. Lucchesi has been a solid pitcher this year, but he has struggled a bit over the past 30 days with a 5.57 ERA, 4.97 SIERA and just a 9.9% K-BB. Lucchesi has always been more vulnerable vs. righties, as he has a .329 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB compared to a .247 xwOBA vs. LHB since 2018. Tonight the first 6 batters in the Giants’ lineup project to be righties. The Giants have really struggled this year at the plate but have begun to turn it around with a 6th best 110 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Donavan Solano (.396 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Tyler Austin (.361), Kevin Pillar (.326) are all good options. Buster Posey (.290) has struggled this year but is still a career 150 wRC+ hitter vs. LHP. Austin Slater is another good option, projected to bat 2nd with a career 100 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 142 wRC+ in 60 PA this year. Giants batters are also extremely cheap; all their hitters are $4k or less on Draftkings besides Mike Yastrzemski. If you’re looking to get super contrarian on this slate, the Giants could be a good shot in a GPP.
Other tagged players: Tyler Austin, Kevin Pillar, Donovan Solano, Austin Slater Andrew Cashner has allowed four HRs in two starts for the Red Sox
Andrew Cashner struck out seven batters for only the third time this season in his second start for Boston, but it’s ironic that part of his appeal may have been contact and HR suppression (49.1 GB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE), yet he’s allowed four of his 15 HRs on the season in just 11 innings for the Sox. And that was against the Blue Jays and his old team, the Orioles. The Red Sox hammered the Yankees early and often last night. Tonight might be the visitor’s turn. The frightening thing here is Cashner’s reverse split over the last calendar year that’s seen RHBs hammer out a .362 wOBA and .381 xwOBA when facing him. One thing the Yankees have in abundance is RHBs who can hit same-handed pitching hard. In 16 innings, the Yankees have scored 11 runs against Cashner this year with three HRs. No Yankee batter in tonight’s projected lineup is below a 117 wRC+ over the last week. With the forecast projecting an additional boost in an already extremely positive run environment, it’s difficult to find a poor value in the bunch with the Yankees atop the board tonight at 5.74 implied runs. The best Yankee RHB against RHP over the last calendar year has been Luke Voit (154 wRC+, .249 ISO). Aaron Judge’s numbers are a bit disappointing and deceptive (122 wRC+, .183 ISO). He has a 50.5 Hard% against RHP and .396 xwOBA against them over that span.
Other tagged players: Luke Voit, Andrew Cashner Matchup in Miami gives Zack Grienke (27.5 K% last five starts) the edge tonight
Zack Greinke is probably the top overall pitcher on the slate tonight and it may not be that close, which also likely makes him the top value among tonight’s three high priced pitchers ($10K+). In a neutral matchup and environment, both Hyun-Jin Ryu and Lance Lynn have been the superior arms this year, but all things are not equal with Ryu facing a Washington lineup that’s tough on lefties in Washington and Lynn facing a difficult Oakland lineup that doesn’t strike out much. Greinke has thrown at least seven innings in five of his last seven starts and has allowed runs (meaning any) in just four of his last eight starts. He has at least six strikeouts in five straight starts (27.5 K%) with just three walks. He has excelled at getting batters to chase out of the zone this season (27.9 Z-O-Swing% is best on the board), resulting in an 86.5 mph aEV, just 6.4% Barrels/BBE and a .283 xwOBA. He gets a trip to the extremely negative run environment in Miami and gets to face the offense with split lows 75 wRC+ (18.9 K-BB%) vs RHP and 30 wRC+ (27.6 K-BB%) over the last week. Greinke costs $10.5K or less on either site tonight.
Rays’ lineup has value and upside in nice environment vs. Waguespack
Despite a matchup in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre tonight versus an unproven pitcher in Jacob Waguespack, Rays bats are surprisingly affordable. Waguespack has been a mixed bag over his 19 MLB innings as he has a 5.68 ERA but a very solid 3.93 xFIP and 19.1% K-BB. He does also own a .350 xwOBA and 89.1 MPH aEV, so it’s not too surprising that his ERA is higher than his estimators. He projects as a roughly 5 ERA guy by most projection systems going forward. Nate Lowe (.397 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Austin Meadows (.386), Tommy Pham (.373), Travis d’Arnaud (.366 since joining TB), Avisail Garcia (.362) and Ji-Man Choi (.346) are all great options tonight. Choi is projected to leadoff and costs just $3.5k on Drafktings. Pham, Lowe and Garcia are all $4.1k or less and projected to bat 3-4-5- in the order. D’Arnaud and Meadows will cost $4.5k but are still very much in play. Nate Lowe has been the Rays’ hottest hitter with a .414 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by d’Arnaud with a .399 mark. The Rays currently have a 5.02 implied line vs. Waguespack and the Jays tonight.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Travis d'Arnaud, Avisail Garcia, Ji-Man Choi