DFS Alerts

Jacob Waguespack has allowed hard contact (.350 xwOBA), struggled with same-handed batters

Jacob Waguespack has a slightly below average K-BB% through 92 AAA innings over the last two seasons. The 25 year-old does have a 23.8 K% with a 4.8 BB% through 84 major league batters so far, facing Boston twice, Detroit and these Rays. A .382 BABIP and 65.9 LOB% has estimators well below his 5.68 ERA, but right in line with a 5.66 DRA and .350 xwOBA due to an 89.1 mph aEV (24.1 LD%). While the peripherals are great, they’re also necessary due to the nature of the contact he’s allowing and not really in line with what he’s done in the minors over the last year. The interesting thing in this small sample so far is that RHBs have an xwOBA over 200 points higher against Waguespack (.442 to .234) with similar actual results (.435 to .278). Some confirmation comes in terms of hard hit (48.7% to 9.5%) and ground ball rates (37.8% to 57.1%). That makes Tommy Pham the bat to own here. He has a 131 wRC+ and .219 ISO vs same-handed pitching over the last calendar year and costs a very reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings tonight. The Tampa Bay lineup is generally fairly liquid and tough to project, so keep an eye out for additional affordable RHBs who may appear towards the top of tonight’s lineup, like possible Travis D’arnaud (91 wRC+, .177 ISO) who has a 167 wRC+ and 54.6 Hard% over the last week and costs less than $3K on FanDuel. His .345 xwOBA against RHP over this span is also 39 points higher than his actual mark.

Park upgrade for Dodgers (114 wRC+, 9.8 K-BB% vs RHP) facing below average peripherals (Anibal Sanchez 10.3 K-BB%)

Anibal Sanchez has experienced a reduction in strikeouts over the last month (15.4%), but with an increase in SwStr rate (10.6%). He’s been a strong contact manager (26% 95+ mph aEV, 11.5 Hard-Soft% are both top two on the board) with below average peripherals (10.3 K-BB%), while his.270 BABIP seems a fluke with this defense (.308 BABIP) and a 26.5 LD%, resulting in estimators around a run or higher above his 3.80 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against Sanchez over the last calendar year, but the Dodgers have top five splits on the board in wRC+ (118), K-BB (9.8%), HR/FB (18.1) and Hard-Soft (26.3%) vs RHP. The first seven batters in tonight’s projected lineup are above a .170 ISO vs RHP over the last 12 months and only one is below a 100 wRC+ (A.J. Pollock 82) over that span. The lefties are generally the key vs RHP with Cody Bellinger (179 wRC+, .330 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Joc Pederson (124 wRC+, .301 ISO) and Max Muncy (152 wRC+, .301) leading an immensely powerful lineup, but Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .174 ISO) could be the value here against a pitcher without much of a platoon split. He leads the team with a 202 wRC+ over the last week and costs less than any of the above mentioned lefties. Currently at 5.32 implied runs, just three offenses find themselves above the Dodgers tonight.

Just Too Cheap

My first preference in cash games at first base is Freddie Freeman, but on DK/FDRFT, we have a significant savings to Carlos Santana if you’d prefer to spend the Freeman salary elsewhere. The Royals’ Jake Junis is a decent pitcher, but he throws a ton of strikes and does nothing to limit hard contact. Santana leads the Indians with a .275 ISO against right-handed pitching, he’s very patient at the plate and also has the switch hitting edge when KC goes into the bullpen.

Straight For The Big Power

The Yankees offense is filled with power and the dangerously low strikeouts of Andrew Cashner are likely to get him into trouble tonight. Cashner has struck out just 14.4% of righties while allowing a .237 ISO. When facing a low strikeout pitcher, we can be less concerned with the strikeouts for New York and focus on the power. No one has more power than Aaron Judge with his .230 ISO and big 53% hard hit rate against righties. He has plenty of individual home run upside and also gains value from the strong team context around him.

Quality Mid-Tier Value

The hitting slate is wide open tonight, and I can make a case for most of the high end bats being worthy of consideration in all formats. But none of them really stand out ahead of the others, and I’m looking to get some more mid-tier bats into my lineups first. The Pirates’ Dario Agrazal has a 2.25 ERA that looks good on the surface, but is full of red flags underneath. He has struck out just 14.3% of lefties while allowing 47% fly balls and 43% hard contact. His .150 BABIP to lefties looks like a pure fluke, giving plenty of upside to this Mets offense, starting with Michael Conforto and his .249 ISO and .392 wOBA against righties.

Everything Lines Up Here

Jake Arrieta has a terrible skill set against left-handed batters with a .393 wOBA and .211 ISO on just 14.5% strikeouts, 10.7% walks and 41% hard hits allowed. Freddie Freeman makes contact, has the patience to take walks, hits the ball hard with extra base power and hits in the middle of a strong lineup. He’s an ideal cash game spend tonight.

Ideal Matchup

Zack Greinke is not an elite DFS pitcher with his moderate strikeouts, but he is consistent with strong control and can pile up easy innings in this type of matchup. While I’ll never expect a huge strikeout performance, his 25.5% K to righties should play well against this high strikeout, right-handed heavy Marlins team. It’s not just the strikeouts, but also the ground balls and low power from Miami that add floor and ceiling to this matchup for Greinke. He’s best suited for cash games tonight, but playable in all formats.

Mike Montgomery has a .421 xwOBA and 49.5% 95+ mph EV

Mike Montgomery lasted 11 batters against these same Indians in his first start of the season after being traded last week. He may be in line for about four innings/60 pitches tonight and has some absolutely brutal numbers, including a 14.2 K%, 35 LD%, 91.8 Z-Contact%, .421 xwOBA, 91.5 mph aEV, 49.5% 95+ mph EV. Unfortunately, the Indians have just a 13.8 HR/FB and 88 wRC+ vs LHP, while transitioning to a power suppressing park tonight, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Montgomery over the last calendar year, while Kansas City is actually a positive overall run environment. Jordan Luplow (158 wRC+, .325 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) costs less than $3K on FanDuel tonight. His .362 xwOBA against southpaws over this span is 54 points less than his actual results, suggesting a good amount of regression, but still an All Star quality performance. Francisco Lindor (114 wRC+, .188 ISO), Oscar Mercado (115 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Carlos Santana (136 wRC+, .178 ISO) are all above average bats against batters from either side of the plate and should remain a positive value against bullpen arms after seeing Montgomery twice at the top of the order. The Indians are the number three offense on the board at 5.4 implied runs tonight.

Adam Plutko has allowed two run in 11 innings against the Royals

Adam Plutko has excellent control (3.1 BB%) and probably should have a few more strikeouts (1.73 K/SwStr, 9.1 SwStr%), but has the highest Z-O-Swing% on the board (42.8%) and an unsustainable .229 BABIP. A 31 GB% plays a big part in generating 8.2% Barrels/BBE despite just 30.4% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. A .305 xwOBA is still 30 points better than his actual mark though. To sum, Statcast suggests a decent contact manager (despite 14 HRs in 48.2 innings) with great control who should get a few more strikeouts if he can get batters to chase out of the zone occasionally. He’s allowed two runs in 11 innings to the Royals this season, striking out seven. Kansas City has very little power (11.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a power suppressing park, which should give Plukto the boost he needs to generate some value at a cost around $7K tonight on a slate with very little middle of the board pitching.

Jose Suarez is another mid-range option that should get a lot of play tonight, simply because he’s facing the Orioles (86 wRC+, 20.4 K-BB%, 10.6 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). He has a 25.2 K% through seven starts, but has failed to complete five innings or go beyond 20 batters in any of his last three in July. While his 86 mph aEV is tied for best on the board, a 28.3 GB% has still resulted in 8.6% Barrels/BBE.

The Only One With This Upside

There is only one pitcher on tonight’s slate with a strikeout rate above 25%, and because of the matchup, he’s not even likely to be popular. Lucas Giolito’s 29.7% K rate puts him in his own tier tonight. He has shown some chinks in the armor recently, and this leaves him as a tournament option, but there is no other pitcher on this slate who can touch his upside. The Twins have a lot of left-handed power, but Giolito carries a 30.3% K rate to lefties along with a very low 26.7% hard hit rate and .124 ISO. It’s risky, but that’s why the ownership will be lower than it should be.

Nice Salary Saving Play

erHagen was DFA’d earlier this year, but nobody else wanted him, and now the Tigers have him back. Somehow, he is starting a major league game for said Tigers tonight. Will ANYONE pay to see a Tigers vs. Mariners game with VerHagen and LeBlanc on the mound? Expect some cheap second-hand tickets if you are interested and in the Seattle area. In any case, VerHagen is an underwhelming RHP with a career 5.20 ERA over 147 major league innings. With 18% strikeouts and 10% walks, he’s not fooling anyone. He has pretty extreme splits, as lefties have tagged him for a .371 wOBA and 40% hard contact rate in his career. Seattle will likely have five lefties in their lineup tonight with Vogelbach, Smith, Crawford, Narvaez, and Seager in the mix. This is not a great offense, but they have some potential in this matchup. They are my favorite “sneaky” GPP stack of the night, with Vogelbach and Crawford checking in as my favorite cash game plays. Vogelbach has elite power against RHP, while Crawford has quietly posted a respectable .354 wOBA and .225 ISO against RHP.

Elite Matchup For These Outfielders

I’ve seen about three starting pitchers for the Orioles tonight, and the sad thing is that I don’t really think it matters who is starting. Whether it’s Yacabonis, Eshelman, or someone else from the bullpen, the outlook remains the same. After all, the Orioles own baseball’s worst bullpen ERA at 5.78. However you slice this matchup, the point is that the Angels will be facing some combination of bad right-handed pitchers for much of this game. On a short slate, I see no path other than prioritizing at least two Angels in cash games. One of those Angels has to be Mike Trout, who has brought a ridiculous level of stability to hitting in DFS MLB. Trout simply produces virtually every night he takes the field, and he will terrorize the Orioles in this series. He owns a ridiculous .462 wOBA and .399 ISO against RHP this year. Justin Upton has a .390 wOBA against RHP since his return. Kole Calhoun has been smashing the ball of late with a .323 average, .405 OBP, and 1.098 OPS this month. All three of these middle of the order outfielders are elite plays. I’ve tagged Trout and Calhoun as the core options, but mix and match them however you wish.

Clearly The Top Arm

The game in Chicago clearly has the most talented arms of the night, and Berrios stands at the top of the list when you factor in recent form and matchup. Berrios draws the easier opponent in this contest, facing off against a free-swinging White Sox team that got mowed down by Caleb Smith and Zac Gallen over the last two nights. The White Sox own the third highest strikeout rate in the league against RHP this year at 26.0%. That mark sits at 26.7% for the month of July. There are free swingers aplenty in this group, and the offense is much less dangerous without Eloy Jimenez in there. Ryan Goins hit fifth for the White Sox last night. That’s how depleted this group is right now. The problem with Berrios is that he isn’t necessarily the dominant ace that some people think he is. His SIERA and xFIP are both well over 4.00, and his sub-3.00 ERA is generally a result of good fortune. He doesn’t strike out as many hitters as we would like to see from an ace. However, given tonight’s circumstances and the completely woeful nature of the pitching on this slate, Berrios is your clear matchup-aided SP1.

More Late Night Power

The Yankees and Red Sox are an obvious matchup for power bats, but there is plenty of reason to look to the late night West Coast games tonight. In Oakland, the A’s will be facing a low strikeout pitcher in Ariel Jurado who has allowed 5+ runs in four of his last seven starts. He has been hit hard by lefties with no ground ball abilities, so my first look is Matt Olson with his .267 ISO and 51% hard hits. Jurado’s moderate ground ball skills against righties would put me next on the 47% fly balls and 47% hard hits of Matt Chapman. With shortstop being a weak position tonight, Marcus Semien is a nice addition to an Oakland stack with his mix of contact and hard hit ability.

Matchup and Salary

Drew VerHagen is not a good pitcher. He has been toiling around the minors, making occassional appearances as an average reliever for Detroit. However, we have a terrible pitching slate tonight, and he is minimum salary on DK/FDRFT and facing a Seattle lineup that is bad against right-handed pitching. It doesn’t take much to back into a 10-point DK kind of night, and VerHagen has at least shown some signs of life recently at Triple-A. The Mariners don’t have a single batter in the projected lineup below 21% strikeouts, so at this salary, it’s reasonable to look for some profit here.