DFS Alerts
Utterly Atrocious
There’s no denying that Welington Castillo has been utterly atrocious offensively this season but he’s still shaping up as one of the better point-per-dollar cash game options at the catcher position simply due to his cheap price tag. Up until this season Castillo had made a career of hitting lefties hard with a 122 wRC+ and .193 ISO against southpaws. Even if he’s only able to tap into 75% of his old self he still makes for a strong play at his price tag.
Cash Game SP2
Homer Bailey gets the nod over Steven Matz for me as the #1 cheap cash game option at SP2. Matz is the higher variant option of the two if you’re looking to embrace volatility and look for a little more upside at the position. Bailey is unexciting but gets a tremendous strikeout matchup against a Rangers team that owns the fourth highest strikeout rate (25.8%) in the league against right-handed pitching. Other things working in Bailey’s favor include a pitcher’s ump calling balls and strikes and a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Other tagged players: Steven Matz Cheap Bats Against Regressing Pitcher
A core concept when choosing 5-man stacks for GPP is the ability to fill scarce positions. The White Sox will potentially have two dirt cheap options tonight with Castillo ($2600 DK) at C and Rondon ($2100 DK) at 2B/SS. Chicago currently has a fairly high implied run total at 4.8 against Martin Perez, who had a few great outings earlier in the season, but is showing major regression since that point, especially to righties. Add in Abreu, Moncada & Garcia to complete this cheap stack that will allow you to easily pay up at pitching this slate.
Other tagged players: Jose Rondon
Most Consistent Source of Fantasy Points
Mike Trout was a bit of a disappointment on Friday night but remains the most consistent source of fantasy points you can roster at a hitting position. Trout keeps finding himself in extremely favorable matchups and Saturday is no different as Aaron Brooks is slated to start for the Orioles. Brooks will be backed by a terrible Orioles bullpen that is tied for the highest xFIP in the league (5.05) which means Trout will face poor pitching throughout the entire game.
Otherworldly Strikeout Stuff
Cole has been otherworldly this season through 22 starts as the owner of a 2.79 SIERA and absolutely ridiculous 37.9% strikeout rate. The Cardinals have finally been swinging the bat well lately but this still profiles as a favorable road matchup for Cole who will get the benefit of not having to face a DH. You could make an argument to fade Cole in any format but his strikeout numbers give him such a strong floor for cash games and a tremendous ceiling for tournaments.
Lefty Facing Pitcher Who Can't Get Lefties Out
I know it’s never fun to stack the Giants, but Quantrill’s .364 wOBA to lefties is noteworthy. I can’t imagine the Giants will be popular on this slate, especially with them not priced all that cheap either. Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford are my two favorite options given their price tags, and I can see them being cash game options as well. In a Giants stack, I’d also include Pablo Sandoval, Alex Dickerson and Mike Yastrzemski. I know it’s going to feel gross stacking up lefty Giants, but at the very least we should give them some consideration with how bad Quantrill has been to this handedness.
Cheap Power Against Woeful Pitching Staff
Aaron Brooks has a low 18.0 K% and now faces an Angels team that has the second lowest K% in the Majors against right-handed pitching. I don’t expect this to end well for him. I especially like the price tag of Justin Upton, who has scuffled lately but had a late-inning home run last night. I’m prioritizing high-end pitching on this slate, and Upton’s price tag gives you flexibility to still do that while getting exposure to this Angels offense without breaking the bank.
Top Stack
The Indians get a great matchup against Glenn Sparkman. Sparkman has struggled this season with lefties and the Indians have a bunch of left handed bats to throw out against him. This season Sparkman is giving up a 288 ISO, 44% fly ball rate, and a 44% hard hit rate to lefties. My main targets in my stack will be Lindor, Santana, Ramirez, and Kipnis but all of the lefties are in play.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis
Favorite One Off
Charlie Blackman is my favorite one off in tournaments. He gets Anthony DeSclifani who is a decent pitcher with some extreme splits. He really struggles with left handed batters, giving up a 402 wOBA, 277 ISO, 49% fly ball rate, and a 47% hard hit rate. Blackman has a 287 ISO, and a 407 wOBA this year to right handed pitching and should be over looked because this game is not in Coors. This is a perfect spot for Blackman, especially at lower ownership.
Slugger Facing Struggling Spot Starter
In his 91.1 innings in the Majors thus far, Chi Chi Gonzalez boasts a low 11.6 K% and a staggering 12.3 BB%. That’s right, his walk rate is higher than his career strikeout rate in the Majors. He generates groundballs at close to a 50% clip so he’s been able to limit some of the damage against him with regards to home runs, but this is still someone I want to pick on if he’s going to continue having control issues. Gonzalez has been awful against left-handed batting this season, but his splits prior to 2019 have been worse against righties. I don’t think we have a large enough sample yet to call him a reverse-splits pitcher so my lean is to just focus on the Reds bats who have mashed right-handed pitching this season. This puts Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig and Jesse Winker at the top of my stack priority here, as all three have ISOs over .235+ against right-handed pitching. Puig is my favorite of this trio and is priced fairly across the industry.
Expensive Ace Worth It
37.9 K% – that’s the strikeout rate of Gerrit Cole. Yes, I realize he’s expensive, but nobody on this slate touches the strikeout rate that Cole has. Mike Clevinger has a 39.4 K% this season, but that’s off a 42.1 inning sample. Clevinger’s strikeout rate from 2018 was only 25.6%, so we should expect his strikeouts to regress closer to his career average as the season goes on. He’s looked fantastic in July, but note he’s faced several high-strikeout offenses lately: Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Royals. From a point per dollar standpoint maybe Cole is tough to swallow, but I like the floor and ceiling he offers and am willing to build around him in all formats as he faces a Cardinals team that ranks among the bottom-five in the Majors in ISO against right-handed pitching.
Sneaky Stack
I think that the Phillies are a Sneaky stack today against Max Fried. Fried is just coming back off a short stint on the IL and he gets a tough matchup against the Phillies who have a good amount of right handed power. 1-5 in this Phillies lineup have a 228+ ISO to left handed pitching. The 4 guys I will be targeting in my stack are Kingery, Hoskins, Realmuto, and Harper.
Other tagged players: Scott Kingery, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper Top SP In GPPs
Mike Clevinger and Garrit Cole are the two clear top options on this slate. In tournaments I am going to lean more towards Clevinger. He should be a little lower owned, especially on DK where the price differences are not big enough. Clevinger has both the highest swinging strike rate at 16.6%, and strikeout rate at 39.4% on the slate. So even though Cole is the better pitcher, if lower owned Clevinger should be a nice pivot with upside in tournaments.
Southpaw In Solid Spot
Matz is someone who doesn’t have anything special in terms of his season numbers: 21.3 K%, 7.7 BB%, 1.88 HR/9 ratio, 41.3% Hard Hit rate. The appeal for Matz is his matchup against a Pirates offense that can’t hit lefties. We saw the Pirates get pwned by lefty Drew Smyly last Sunday. The Pirates are league-average in terms of K% against lefties, but their team ISO ranks 28th against southpaws this season and their team wRC+ of 72 ranks dead last in the Majors. Matz has also seen his pitch count rise up to 88 pitches in his last start, so he should be fully stretched out here. I am not a huge fan of Matz, but the matchup is good enough where I see merit to using him as your SP2 in all formats given the Pirates’ inability to hit lefties and the great ballpark factors.
Bailey is a solid SP option vs. struggling Rangers offense
The Rangers come into this game with a league-worst 74 wRC+ and 29.1% K rate over the past 30 days, and are now without their best hitter in Joey Gallo. Bailey hasn’t been a very effective pitcher this year with a 5.42 ERA, 4.66 xFIP and 4.88 SIERA with a 20.7% K rate and 9.5% BB rate. He also owns a .347 xwOBA allowed, 6.7% barrel rate and a 90.1 MPH aEV. However, pitching on this slate is incredibly dry and Bailey actually projects as one of the better PTS/$ pitchers on the board tonight. Fortunately for Bailey, in addition to a great matchup he’ll also be pitching in a good pitchers’ park in O.co. Overall, the Rangers have a 98 wRC+ and 25.8% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Bailey costs just $6.7k on Draftkings and $6.8k on Fanduel; due to the lack of pitching on this slate he can be considered in all contests. The struggling Rangers currently have just a 4.14 implied total vs. Bailey and the A’s tonight.
