DFS Alerts

Intriguing Matchup For Power Potential

I am not a big fan of stacking against Jake Odorizzi, but I do like one hitter in particular as a great GPP one-off play tonight — and that is Aaron Judge. While most people tend to gravitate toward Judge against LHP, he profiles well against Odorizzi, a fly ball pitcher who is very much prone to the home run ball and has a history of reverse splits tendencies. Odorizzi’s wOBA splits say otherwise this year, but that’s largely due to BABIP luck. RHBs have posted a 44% hard contact rate against him, and Judge has the ability to take one deep anytime he steps into the box with his career .294 ISO against RHP. Use him with confidence this evening.

Matchup-Based SP2

Reynaldo Lopez is not a great major league pitcher, but we have seen him pop with some upside at times. He does have swing and miss stuff when his command is on, but he can be prone to hard contact and home runs when it is not. The good news is that the Marlins don’t necessarily have the dangerous hitters to take advantage of those mistakes, making Lopez a better option on this slate. The upside is there at his cheap salary, and the floor is a little higher than what we might normally expect for a pitcher with a relatively ugly overall profile.

Roll With The Positive Trends

Things are trending in the right direction for Noah Syndergaard, with positive recent upticks in velocity and movement. It has translated into a total of 17 strikeouts and just one walk over his last two starts, both of which have been very good. A home date with the Padres is also a fine matchup, as he gets to face a team that has been in the top of the league in strikeouts against RHP all year. I prefer Syndergaard as my top GPP option over Patrick Corbin tonight, even though Noah’s full season profile doesn’t quite match up just yet. I’m buying the positive trends and this upside matchup.

Start of PHI-DET will be delayed due to rain Tuesday

The start of the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Detroit Tigers on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Tigers have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Matt Boyd and Aaron Nola not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes that this contest will play through to conclusion following the initial delay.

Dylan Bundy in rare spot on road vs below average offense

Dylan Bundy got blown up for seven runs and faced just 11 Rays in his last start, pushing his ERA to a FIP confirming 5.28. He’s allowed 21 HRs in 18 starts, but this is a really interesting spot for him. A citizen of the AL East, he very rarely faces below average offenses in negative run environments. In fact, he’s faced a team below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP on the road at all, in any park just one time this year and that was in Cleveland, which is actually a more position run environment than Baltimore. The humidor has made Arizona a more neutral run environment. In fact, by ESPN Park Factors, it’s been a fairly negative run and HR environment this year. The Diamondbacks have just a 92 wRC+ against RHP this year and an 11.4 HR/FB at home. The projected lineup for Arizona features just three batters above a .200 ISO and just two above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Remove some of the power risk and what are you left with when looking at Dylan Bundy? A 24 K% and 13.1 SwStr%. Can we safely remove some of the risk even in this park? Consider his Statcast numbers suggest he’s been a quality contact manager this year. A .309 xwOBA is 42 points below his actual mark with 7.1% Barrels/BBE and 32% 95+ mph EV, two of the better marks on the board. This tells you that Dylan Bundy needs to be traded to a team with a bigger park, but it also suggests there’s some value in a $6K DraftKings price tag for his start in Arizona tonight.

Two pitchers due for regression could lead to some run scoring in Milwaukee

The game in Milwaukee seems ripe for offense tonight. On the one hand, Tanner Roark has seen some regression over the last month (5.82 ERA) as his SIERA remains around 4.50. His .387 xwOBA over that span is second worst on the board over this span. After shutting down Milwaukee five starts back, he allowed three HRs to the Brewers two starts later. Now they’ll see him for the third time in six starts. A .371 wOBA (.362 xwOBA) against LHBs over the last year, does not seem ideal when facing Christian Yelich (215 wRC+, .412 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who seems to homer more often than not against RHP at home, Yasmani Grandal (122 wRC+, .240 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (116 wRC+, .249 ISO).

On the other hand, Zach Davies has allowed just two ERs over his last 22.1 IP, but did not strike out a single batter over seven innings last time out. He hasn’t faced the Reds in a while, but opened his season against them with four walks and then allowed a season high six runs against them in May. His 2.79 ERA is about half his non-FIP estimators (all above five) and while he’s managed contact well (5.7% Barrels/BBE is third best on the board), he has just a 14.8 K% and even his xwOBA (.334) suggest a below average pitcher. A 79.8 LOB% simply isn’t sustainable with that low a strikeout rate and eight of his 42 runs have been unearned. LHBs have had some success against him over the last calendar year (.325 wOBA, .335 xwOBA) and even RHBs have a league average xwOBA against him over that span. Eugenio Suarez (106 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yasiel Puig (122 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Jesse Winker (115 wRC+, .230 ISO) are key middle the order bats here. Dropping a small premium subscriber nugget, an extremely hitter friendly umpiring assignment behind the plate in this game (Greg Gibson), could give the offense just the boost it needs here.

The hottest offense in baseball (Astros 152 wRC+ last seven days) face a pitcher due for regression

Mike Fiers has survived a low strikeout rate (15.8%) due to a great defense (.277 team BABIP) and lots of popups (39.9 GB%, 15.8 IFFB%) in a park designed to increase those results. Still, even his .324 xwOBA won’t subscribe to his 3.64 ERA, while non-FIP estimators are all at least a run removed. He’ll remain in a negative run environment in Houston, but one without so much foul ground and as Homer Baily found out last night, this Houston team can rake. In addition to their 115 wRC+ and 18.3 K% vs RHP, they are the hottest team in the land, leading the majors with a 152 wRC+ over the last week (24.6 HR/FB, 36.5 Hard-Soft%). While Fiers has hidden his contact issues with RHBs behind a .314 wOBA over the last calendar year, a .366 xwOBA and 42 Hard% suggest more difficulty and that’s bad news against a Houston offense featuring several prominent RH bats who handle same-handed pitching well. Implied for 5.3 runs (fourth), George Springer (152 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Alex Bregman (155 wRC+, .256 ISO) strong options tonight. How hard has Houston been hitting the ball recently? The only batter in the projected lineup with more than 10 PAs over the last week (excluding only Aledmys Diaz) below a 50% hard hit rate and 139 wRC+ is Josh Reddick (25 wRC+, 21.1 Hard%). The good fortune of Mike Fiers could come to an abrupt halt tonight.

Excellent Home Offense Looks to Keep Power Going

It’s not a huge surprise that the Rockies lead the majors in OPS and wOBA with the thin air of Coors Field, but the team that ranks second in OPS and wOBA at home is more of a surprise – the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta is home at SunTrust Park tonight taking on Danny Duffy and the Royals, and the Braves are strong -230 favorites in a game with a 9.5 run total, giving them one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 5.6 runs. Duffy doesn’t have pronounced platoon splits so I’ll be targeting the power hitters from either side of the plate tonight – Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman, and Austin Riley.

High Strikeout Pitcher Gets Matchup with Terrible Road Offense

With the Nationals rainout yesterday, Stephen Strasburg will stay on schedule and get the start tonight against Colorado. If this game can avoid rain, Strasburg is an excellent choice in GPPs against a Rockies team that ranks last in wOBA and second in K% on the road this season. Strasburg and the Nationals are strong -235 favorites in this game, so if the rain holds off tonight Strasburg has a good shot at putting up a win, quality start, and a high K total.

The Price Is Right

On DK/FDRFT, the ideal build would be double aces, but it’s just not reasonable to get enough high quality bats that way. Chris Archer is the standout discount pitcher who keeps your upside intact at a savings. He is not without risk, but that risk is priced in. His strikeouts have picked back up, with a 34.1% K rate over his last six starts that rivals the aces on this slate.

No qualified starter in history above a 30 K% has had a lower strand rate than Chris Sale (69.4%)

Chris Sale has casted his moments of doubt this season, but he’s still the top pitcher on the board and perhaps a top value in Tampa Bay as well. After allowing exactly five runs in three straight starts, he shut out the Blue Jays over six innings last time out, striking out 12 of the 22 batters he faced. He’s struck out at least 10 batters in 11 of his last 16 starts, giving him a 33.2 K-BB% over that span. That’s higher than any other pitcher’s strikeout rate alone on tonight’s board. Despite a 4.05 ERA, none of his estimators are even above three due to a 69.4 LOB%. It’s extremely difficult to generate a 35% strikeout rate while stranding less than 70% of runners over a full season. In fact, of the 50 qualified seasons of a pitcher striking out at least 30% of batters, Sale this year and Randy Johnson (2004 – 30.1 K%, 69.5 LOB%) are the only ones. As either the second or third most expensive pitcher on the board, perhaps Sale goes over-looked with an abundance of studs in stronger perceived matchups tonight, but Sale not only gets a park bump, but the Rays have a 26.1 K% vs LHP this season, which is the third highest split on the board tonight. Over the last week, the team has a 68 wRC+ and 26.8 K% with just a 10.6 Hard-Soft%. To repeat, Chris Sale is not only the top overall pitcher on the board tonight, but maybe the top value among expensive arms as well.

Best of the Best

This is a loaded pitching slate, and you can spread the net pretty wide in tournaments and catch plenty of upside. But to kick things off, you can’t overlook the dominance of Chris Sale. He went through a rough stretch that was pretty clearly bad luck more than bad pitching, and he rebounded with a 12-K, 6-inning shutout last week. Tonight he gets a ballpark upgrade in Tampa along with a matchup against a high strikeout opponent. The elite strikeout ability keeps both his floor and ceiling high regardless of which way the BABIP falls.

Top Offense Of The Night

After striking out nine batters in his first career start, Peter Lambert has just 14 strikeouts over 28 innings since. In his brief time in the majors, he has allowed a silly .353 ISO to left-handed batters on 46% hard hits and just 32% ground balls. Juan Soto is in the middle of the lineup for the highest projected team of the night with strong plate skills, hard hits and power. He fits in all formats on all sites.

Fly Ball Pitcher To Attack

I don’t typically like stacking against Jason Vargas, but I really like the Padres tonight. Since the start of 2018, Reyes has a .231 ISO with a .398 wOBA and a 44.8% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. His biggest issue is strikeouts, but if I’m searching for upside, he has the upside against an average strikeout pitcher. Vargas allows a 41.5% hard-hit rate and a 41.5% fly ball rate against right-handed hitters. Reyes is more of a ground ball hitter and should benefit from a fly ball pitcher.

Aaron Sanchez has allowed at least four runs in eight of nine starts

Aaron Sanchez has failed to allow at least four runs in just one of his last nine starts and that was against Baltimore where he still walked four and allowed a HR. His 5.0 K-BB%, 6.26 ERA, 8.00 DRA, 24 LD%, .360 xwOBA and 89.9 mph aEV (42.8% 95+ mph EV) are just some of the numbers that will entice daily fantasy players to load up their lineups with Cleveland bats despite a mere 95 wRC+ vs RHP. The Indians also have just a 14.5 K% and 37.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week though, both best in the majors. Batters from either side of the plate have hammered Sanchez over the last 12 months. Neither side drops below a .348 wOBA or xwOBA. Francisco Lindor (109 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Oscar Mercado (119 wRC+, .191 ISO) are both above a 150 wRC+ over the last week. Jason Kipnis (117 wRC+, .193 ISO) costs just $3.6K on DraftKings. Only one other team on the slate is more than one-tenth of a run above Cleveland’s 5.5 implied runs tonight.