DFS Alerts

Low-Owned, High-Upside

For whatever reason I have started to stack the Diamondbacks more frequently and the only thing I can truly link it to is the return of Jake Lamb into their lineup. Sure, I may have a little bias for Lamb, but the addition of his bat does make Arizona all that more solid offensively against right-handed pitching. Lamb himself is the owner of a career .217 ISO against RHP while Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and even Christian Walker have all shown strong upside offensively. While Jarrod Dyson doesn’t have as strong of an offensive skill-set as the others, he does have plenty of stolen base upside in this matchup as PlateIQ gives him one of the highest Stolen Base Ratings (78.71) on the slate.

Despite Asher Wojciechowski breaking everyone’s hearts who stacked the Red Sox yesterday, we should not be afraid to continue to target Baltimore’s below average starters and even worse bullpen. Once ownership is taken into consideration, the Diamondbacks are my favorite stack of the night. Despite the favorable matchup, SlateIQ has total Diamondbacks ownership projected as the third lowest of the slate at 16%.

Loads Of Lefty Mashers

The Yankees C.C. Sabathia has a tough task on hand tonight with a Minnesota lineup that includes four right-handed bats with an ISO above .300 against LHP this season. Sabathia has shown no ability to limit hard contact to righties, allowing a .245 ISO on 41% fly balls and 39% hard hits. Nelson Cruz is a standout salary on DK, with C.J. Cron and his .318 ISO being affordable on all sites.

C.C. Sabathia faces difficult conditions and great offense vs LHP (123 wRC+, 18.4 HR/FB)

C.C. Sabathia is still a quality contact manager (86.5 mph aEV, 30.5% 95+ mph EV) with more strikeouts (22.3%), but a high rate of Barrels (8.4% per BBE) for some reason. The Twins have the top split wRC+ today (123 vs LHP), are tied for the top R/L HR split (18.4 HR/FB) and just a 1.7 team K-BB% over the last week. There is some indication on Weather Edge (premium subscription required) that conditions may boost offense in this game, a very meaningful tidbit with more than half (six of 11) of tonight’s game’s being played in dome capable stadiums and no environment on the board clearly a more positive run environment than Minnesota tonight. This is a game where players should be looking for offense on either side. The Yankees and Twins are essentially tied with Washington for a board high 5.8 implied runs. The Minnesota projected lineup includes five batters exceeding a 135 wRC+ and .230 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. This list includes Mitch Garver (180 wRC+, .344 ISO), Nelson Cruz (139 wRC+, .285 ISO), C.J. Cron (176 wRC+, .310 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (138 wRC+, .234 ISO), and Miguel Sano (141 wRC+, .341 ISO). While Sabathia has a .329 wOBA vs LHP over the last calendar year, xwOBA drops that to .307, but still a strong spot for high upside Minnesota right-handed bats.

Too Cheap In The Outfield

Sometimes there is a salary that is just plain wrong. Sure this game is being played in Tampa instead of Boston, but this is way too big of a price drop for just a moderate ballpark downgrade. Jalen Beeks is a decent pitcher, but decent is about it. There’s nothing above average in his skill set to righties, while J.D. Martinez’ skill set against lefties is anything but average. He has a .378 ISO, .482 and 46% hard hit rate this season and he’s the 38th highest priced OF on DK tonight. Cut it out.

Bad Starter + Bad Bullpen = Offense

Ryan Borucki is making his first start of the season working back from an elbow injury and he’s backed by a bad Toronto bullpen. When we saw Borucki last season, he was striking out just 15.2% of right-handed batters with no ground ball lean. With Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana and Jose Ramirez, the Indians have three switch hitters with near elite contact ability along with a mix of power and speed that stays intact with the platoon advantage once Toronto goes into their bullpen. Francisco Lindor leads off with on base ability from his low strikeouts with 39% hard hits against lefties and 46% against righties to go along with 16 HR and 14 SB.

Mike Clevinger tops the board with a 41.4 K%, 17.3 SwStr% and 72.6 Z-Contact%

Mike Clevinger’s string of favorable matchups continue as he’s faced the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Orioles , Royals, Twins and Tigers in his seven starts. We can’t say he hasn’t dominated these mostly poor offenses however, striking out 41.4% of batters with a 17.3 SwStr%, and 72.6 Z-Contact%. All of these marks top a board that includes Gerrit Cole tonight. His 31.1 Z-O-Swing% is second behind Sonny Gray (30.8%). While Clevinger’s 3.57 ERA is well above his estimators due to a .318 BABIP and 70.1 LOB%, it’s still a small sample (seven starts) and 12 of his 14 runs allowed came in his first two starts back from injury last month. His .270 xwOBA is third best on the board, only two points behind Cole and Daniel Ponce de Leon for the slate lead. The Blue Jays have an 86 wRC+ and 15.9 K% vs RHP. While Toronto is a slightly positive run environment, it’s still a park upgrade for Clevinger, who’s price tag is now above $12K on DraftKings, but still $1.5K less than Cole on FanDuel, where he may be the better value.

Daniel Ponce de Leon (29.9 K%) costs just $6.7K on FanDuel

Daniel Ponce de Leon had been missing tons of bats (29.9 K%) before striking out just three of 20 Pirates in his last effort. In 55.1 AAA innings, he had just a 6.9 K-BB%. He did strikeout 26.9% of batters in 96.1 AAA innings last year, but has never really ever had a strikeout rate much above average before, while he owns a 12.2% career walk rate at AAA. His .234 BABIP (strong BABIP profile though – 13.4 LD%, 17.6 IFFB%) and 86.7 LOB% are not sustainable with estimators otherwise just below four, except for a 2.78 DRA that completely buys into the ERA. Odd Statcast results with a 25.9% 95+ mph EV that’s best on the board, but an 88.4 mph aEV that’s closer to the other end. His .268 xwOBA is tied with Gerrit Cole for the top mark on the board. The main issue we run into when rostering him is that the Pirates own a 19.2 K% vs RHP, which is the second lowest split on the board today (Astros 18.3% vs RHP). However, aside from Josh Bell, the Pirates possess very little power. They have an 11.9 HR/FB at home, 12.3 HR/FB vs RHP and 2.7 HR/FB over the last seven days. A price tag of just $6.7K on FanDuel may make Ponce de Leon a top value on that site. He costs $2.3K more on DraftKings where he would seem a much more average value.

If you Can Afford Him, Just Do It

When I first glanced at this slate, I thought Gerrit Cole might be a little too expensive to prioritize. But in digging through the matchups, I’ve found enough value bats that it’s just not hard to pay up at pitcher. While there is plenty of upside from arms like Mike Clevinger, Robbie Ray and Sonny Gray, the track record of dominance from Cole is unmatched. His 37.5% K rate for the season is the highest mark in the league among all qualified starters, with his 2.84 SIERA also being the best mark in the league. He has double digit strikeouts in six of his last ten starts and has thrown at least six innings in 10 straight. High floor, high ceiling, ideal for all formats.

Value Play With Home Run Upside

Sabathia has really struggled with right-handed hitters this season. He has a .364 wOBA with a .245 ISO and a 38.7% hard contact rate. Cron has a .318 ISO with a .449 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Cron is more of a ground ball hitter and should benefit with Sabathia having a higher fly ball rate this season.

Boom/Bust Value Play

I really never feel great about playing below average pitchers, but considering price, I think Sampson is serviceable tonight. The projected starting lineup for Seattle has a 23.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They have eight guys with strikeout rates over 21.5% against righties. Sampson has a 50.3% hard-hit rate with a 40.3% fly ball rate this season. He does have a decent strikeout rate for this price range, and I’m just hoping he can score 10-14 fantasy points.

Not A Lot Of Value Options

We don’t have a ton of cheap pitching options on this slate. With that said, I don’t mind rolling the dice on a guy like Trevor Richards. He has a 11.7% swinging strike rate with a 20.8% strikeout rate this season. The White Sox projected starting lineup has a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They do have some power, and this is a ballpark downgrade for Richards, but we just don’t have a lot of great options today.

Reds bats are an intriguing leverage play vs. Flaherty

With Jack Flaherty’s ownership projected to be very high on both sites, there is some leverage to be had by stacking Reds’ bats. Flaherty has been a bit better than his 4.41 ERA suggests, but he’s very prone to giving up homers (1.73 HR/9) and loud contact (40.5% hard contact rate, .392 xwOBA on contact). Flaherty has been much more vulnerable in road starts, where he has a 4.48 ERA and .314 xwOBA compared to a 3.06 ERA and .269 xwOBA in home starts since 2018. He’s also more vulnerable versus left-handed batters, allowing a .314 xwOBA to lefties but a .274 xwOBA to righties since 2018. Jesse Winker (.352 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Josh VanMeter (.337), Joey Votto (.327) and Scooter Gennett (.179 xwOBA but a career 117 wRC+ vs. RHP) are all left-handed options in the Reds order. Also in play are Yasiel Puig (.379 xwOBA over the past month) and Eugenio Suarez (.343). Reds bats are very affordable on both sites, and there 4.75 implied total isn’t bad at all.

Cheapest Stack On The Board

If you want to play two ace SPs today, the Cardinals are how you do it. Several of their regular starters are sitting, so a dirt cheap Ravelo at $2000 on DraftKings is batting 3rd, Yairo Munoz fills a scarce 2B position at $3300 and Dexter Fowler at $3400 is batting up in the order as well. Typically you’d look to attack DeSclafani with lefties, so this spot for a 5-man Cardinals stack is definitely not for the faint of heart and strictly reserved for large-field GPPs.

Plesac projects to be a nice value arm vs. Royals

Over 48 innings so far on the year, Zach Plesac has a 3.56 ERA with a 5.28 xFIP, 5.32 SIERA and 17.9% K rate compared to a 9.5% BB rate, a bit underwhelming considering he had decently impressive MiLB stats. In 26 innings in AAA this year he posted a 30.7% K rate / 3% BB rate with a 2.73 ERA, and in 37 innings in AA he posted a respectable 24.8% K rate / 4.4% BB rate with a 0.96 ERA. It’s a small sample, but in 22 1/3 IP at home this year Plesac has been much better, posting a .314 xwOBA and 10.8% K-BB compared to a .378 xwOBA and 6.5% K-BB in 25 2/3 innings on the road. Plesac will be at home this afternoon to face the Royals. The Royals have a 91 wRC+ vs. RHP this year with a 22.3% K rate and own a 96 wRC+ over the past 30 days. The Royals also struggle a bit more on the road, as they have an 84 wRC+ and 25.1% K rate in away games. The Royals have just 4.33 implied runs in this match-up, and the Indians are -225 favorites so Plesac will have a decent shot at getting the ‘W’ bonus. Plesac will also have the benefit of one of the better pitcher framers in the league in Roberto Perez. At just $7k on Draftkings and $6.9k on Fanduel, Plesac should have a very good shot at hitting value on what is otherwise a pretty rough slate for pitching.

Cheap Low-Owned Stack To Pay Up At Pitching

It’s rare that we see the Tigers with higher than a 5 implied run total, but in his short time in the majors, Jacob Waguespack has shown to be a below-average ground ball pitcher with walk issues. Nearly all the Detroit bats are under $4k on DraftKings and make for great lineup fillers for salary relief to pay up at pitching, especially one of the OFs between Jacoby Jones, Nick Castellanos, or Christin Stewart. The full 5-man stack is currently rated 3rd for value, allows you to fill in a cheap catcher, and should be under 2% owned as a combination in large-field GPPs.