DFS Alerts
Still Just Too Cheap
I don’t know what Jose Altuve has to do to get the respect of the DK/FDRFT pricing algorithm, but it’s something more than eight hits and two home runs in the past three games. The Angels Griffin Canning is a quality pitcher, but his fly balls and hard hits allowed to righties will put him at risk against this loaded Astros team tonight. Altuve should have baserunners on around him to take advantage of his strong contract skills while he looks to keep his hot streak going at his discounted salary.
Under-Priced Lefties
The Dodgers are in a prime spot to take advantage of their left-handed power tonight. Zach Eflin has allowed a scary .280 ISO on 44% fly balls and 46% hard hits with just 18.3% strikeouts to lefties this season. Joc Pederson leads thing off at a discounted price tag and his .310 ISO with 45% hard hits.
Don't Overthink It
Coors Field continues to go wild this season, and with low strikeout pitchers on the mound tonight, there is no reason to start overthinking it now. The Giants’ Dereck Rodriguez has struck out just 15.3% of lefties while walking 14.4% and allowing a .226 ISO on 45% hard hits. Charlie Blackmon has endless upside with his on base and run scoring upside combined with home run power from the top of the lineup.
James Paxton struck out 11 Rays (26.1 K% vs LHP) last time out
James Paxton’s 28.9 K% is still third best on the board, but it comes with a 9.1 BB% and 23.1 Hard-Soft%. Although he’s not allowed a lot of Barrels/BBE (6.9%), Statcast confirms the hard contact issues (88.9 mph aEV, 38.6% 95+ mph EV). Fewer strikeouts, more walks, a negative park shift and we see why Paxton has failed to live up to some lofty expectations for his new team. He did, however, strike out 11 Rays last time out. It’s the first time he’s passed seven strikeouts in a start since April. Part of that is injuries. In eight previous starts since April, he’d faced more than 23 batters just twice as well. This last outing was a great sign, as he generated swings and misses on 17.2% of his. Another factor in his favor is that while none of his estimators are more than 38 points removed from his 4.01 ERA, Paxton also owns an unsupported .358 BABIP despite a 13 IFFB% and 39.5 GB%. This, along with a .299 xwOBA that’s 33 points below his actual mark this season, suggests there may be a bit of poor luck involved. Conditions aren’t ideal for pitchers at Yankee Stadium tonight, but the Rays do have a 95 wRC+ and 26.1 K% vs LHP. Paxton’s upside in combination with a price tag of $9.3K or less are worth a shot in a high upside spot, considering his last effort against this offense. That said, destroyer of LHP, Tommy Pham (159 wRC+, .415 xwOBA last calendar year) also merits a spot in daily fantasy lineups tonight.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham
Austin Slater scratched Monday; Alex Dickerson replaces
Slater has been scratched from the San Francisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not start in the first game of Monday’s doubleheader against the Colorado Rockies due to a presently unknown reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Alex Dickerson, who will now play left field and slot into the fourth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Giants batting order but, most notably, bumps Mike Yastrzemski all the way down to sixth, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as San Francisco faces off against right-hander German Marquez on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Kerry Crowley via Twitter Other tagged players: Alex Dickerson
Potentially Under-Owned For The Talent Level
There’s not much explanation needed why Jose Altuve at under $4k is nearly always a good play on paper. The context of tonight’s slate, however, has even lower priced 2B options in great hitting conditions that could potentially draw a substantial amount of ownership away from him. For GPPs, I’d much rather play a 12% owned player with Altuve’s base talent level than a 15-20% owned Scooter Gennett in Wrigley or Garrett Hampson in Coors.
OK is Good Enough
Because we have some question marks on the aces and some bats to spend up on tonight, I can make a strong case to pay down at pitching, even in cash games. Jake Junis is an average pitcher with 20.8% strikeouts, 8.1% walks and a 4.67 SIERA. It’s nothing inspiring, but he throws strikes, and he’s at home against a White Sox team with an incredible combination (and not the good kind of incredible) of the highest strikeout rate and the lowest walk rate in the league from their active roster against right-handed pitching.
Question Marks Everywhere
There are four pitchers on tonight’s slate with strikeout rates above 28%, so we’re likely to see a big performance somewhere. But they all come with some question marks in terms of control, recent form or matchups. James Paxton has had fewer control issues recently than any of Snell, Giolito or Castillo, and he’s also coming off a start that inspires confidence, having struck out 11 Rays in six innings in his last start. Tampa has the highest strikeout lineup of any of the aces, and Paxton has the lowest price tag of the group as well on DK/FDRFT/FD. That leads me to starting with Paxton tonight, though I’ll spread out amongst this group in tournaments.
Underpriced Stack For The Weather Conditions
With the wind expected to be blowing out at 12mph in Wrigley Field, the bats on both sides in this game are underpriced given those conditions. Although Kyle Hendricks is a good real-life pitcher I usually don’t target against with stacks, nearly all the Reds bats are under $4k on DraftKings. Between Gennett, Suarez, Votto, Senzel, Dietrich (or Winker if he’s in the order), as long as they have decent FB rates, any contact in the air tonight has potential to land over the fence.
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Nick Senzel, Derek Dietrich Zach Eflin's .372 wOBA vs LHBs over the last 12 months is not ideal against the Dodgers
Zach Eflin owns estimators well above his 3.78 ERA due to the fact that five of his 47 runs have been unearned, along with a 79% strand rate that’s a bit too high for a pitcher striking out fewer than 20% of the batters he’s faced. This, despite the fact that he owns a 7.65 ERA with a .374 xwOBA over the last month and that’s still 67 points below his actual mark over this four start span. He’s allowed six of his 17 HRs over his last three starts. The larger problem for Eflin here is that LHBs have tormented him over the last calendar year to the tune of a .372 wOBA (37.8 GB%, 42.1 Hard%). An xwOBA 20 points lower is still not really saying much in his favor. The Dodgers have similarly treated RHP poorly this season with a split high 114 wRC+ against them (10.2 K-BB%, 17 HR/FB, 26.1 Hard-Soft%). Tonight’s projected lineup features just one batter through the first seven below a 113 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year (A.J. Pollock 87 wRC+). Pollock (.164 ISO) and Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .163 ISO) are also the only batters in that group below a .185 ISO vs RHP over that span. Remove Alex Verdugo (113 wRC+, .185 ISO) and each of the four remaining batters (all left-handed) own a 130 or better wRC+ and .245 or better ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. This is a terrible spot for Eflin with the Dodgers implied for 5.36 runs tonight.
Other tagged players: Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock, Zach Eflin Clayton Kershaw has completed seven innings in more than half his starts
Clayton Kershaw has maintained his elite control (4.1 BB%) and increased his ground ball rate (51.1%), allowing him to remain a formidable arm, even as his strikeout rate declines to near league average (23.3 K%). He’s still managing contact decently (87.4 mph aEV) and even has a .281 xwOBA over his last four starts that’s just one point off the slate lead for the last 30 days. An increased HR rate (16.3 HR/FB) is not as damaging as it seems with the increase in ground balls. While Kershaw is one of four pitchers who reach $10K on DraftKings and the only one to do so on FanDuel, there may be some value in his price tag against a league average Phillies’ offense vs LHP (98 wRC+, 12.3 K-BB%, 24.9 Hard-Soft%) because Kershaw has gone at least six innings in every single start this season (15 of them). In fact, he’s completed seven innings in more than half of them (eight times). While Philadelphia is a power friendly park, it’s a more neutral overall run environment with weather not expected to have a major impact tonight. With other high priced pitchers like Blake Snell and Luis Castillo pitching in tough spots like Yankee Stadium and Wrigley with the wind blowing out, plus Lucas Giolito owning a 5.76 ERA with estimators all above four and a half over the last month, Kershaw may be the one of the safer high priced pitchers tonight, despite the lowered strikeout rate.
Angels are the best stack option on late afternoon slate vs. struggling Kikuchi
If you’re playing the late afternoon slate you’ll certainly want some exposure to Angels bats, as the Angels have the highest total with the best matchup on the slate. They’ll face Yusei Kikuchi, who has struggled to a 5.48 ERA, 5.43 xFIP and 5.44 SIERA with a 6.9% K-BB over the past 30 days. He’s also allowed a .363 xwOBA and 89.2 MPH aEV over that time frame. Over his 98 career innings, Kikuchi has shown a pretty wide platoon split, with a .308 xwOBA allowed vs. left-handed batters compared to a .352 xwOBA allowed vs. righties. Mike Trout (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP on the year), Albert Pujols (.368), David Fletcher (.331), Luis Rengifo (.315), Andrelton Simmons (.268) and Justin Upton (career 129 wRC+ vs. LHP) are all right-handed options in the LAA projected order. Kole Calhoun (.375) and Shohei Ohtani (.350) are also in play. Trout has been by far the Angels’ hottest bat with a scorching .499 xwOBA over the past 30 days, followed by Ohtani with a .387 mark. While Ohtani and Trout are both well over $5k on Draftkings, Fletcher, Upton, Simmons and Pujols are all projected in the top 6 of the order and can be had for $4.1k or less. The Angels currently have a 6.01 implied line vs. Kikuchi and the M’s this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo, Andrelton Simmons, Albert Pujols
Yarbrough projects as a nice value arm vs. Orioles
If you’re looking to save at SP on the early slate, Ryan Yarbrough is one of your better options. Over the past 30 days, Yarbrough has pitched to a solid 1.20 ERA, 3.66 SIERA, 3.97 xFIP, 22.7% K Rate and just a 3.5% BB rate. The Orioles come into this game with just an 87 wRC+ and 25.9% K rate vs. left-handed pitching on the year. They also have just a 27th ranked 84 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Baltimore will have just 3 batters in their lineup with an xwOBA greater than .295 vs. lefties on the year. Ryan Yarbrough will have the benefit of a plus pitch-framer in Mike Zunino, as well as a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Vin Carapazza. Even though Yarbrough will come in after an opener, he still has a good shot at the ‘W’ with the Rays being -230 favorites in this matchup. The Orioles currently have a 4.10 implied line vs. the Rays in Camden Yards this afternoon.
Rays have the highest total on the early slate vs. Eshelman
After trading Andrew Cashner, the Orioles called up Tom Eshleman to make his 2nd career start Sunday afternoon vs. the Rays. Eshelman had pretty mediocre numbers at every MiLB stop, and projects as anywhere from a 5.50-6.50 ERA pitcher by projection systems. The Rays have scored 30 runs in 3 games since the All-Star break and look to be in yet another good spot this afternoon vs. Eshelman and an Orioles bullpen that is already bad (4th worst 4.57 SIERA this year) and is worn down after being torched all weekend. Nate Lowe (.441 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Austin Meadows (.384), Tommy Pham (.382), Travis d’Arnaud (.354 since joining TB) and Ji-Man Choi (.350) are all great options. Kevin Kiermaier (.298) is batting 3rd and while he isn’t a good hitter, he’s been a stolen base threat with 17 now on the year. Michael Brosseau hit 2 homers last night and now has a 211 wRC+ in 36 PA this year; he costs just $3.2k on Draftkings and will bat 5th. Nate Lowe will cost just $3.6k on Draftkings and will bat 4th, while Ji-man Choi is also a nice bargain, costing $3.6k and batting 6th. The Rays currently have a 6.30 implied total this afternoon and project as one of the best PTS/$ stacks on the board on the early slate.
Other tagged players: Kevin Kiermaier, Mike Brosseau, Travis d'Arnaud, Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Tom Eshelman Pirates bats are a good under-the-radar stack vs. struggling Quintana
With a 27% K rate and 3.21 xFIP through April, it looked as though Jose Quintana had returned to ace form in 2019. It proved to be a fluke, as Quintana has struggled to a 4.93 xFIP, 8.6% K-BB and a .341 xwOBA allowed since May 1st. He’s been even worse of late, with a 4.87 xFIP, 5.21 SIERA, .381 xwOBA allowed and 9% K-BB over the past 30 days. Since May 1st Quintana has allowed a .345 xwOBA vs. RHP compared to a .329 xwOBA vs. LHB, so hitters from both sides of the plate are in play for the Pirates. Jose Osuna (.384 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Josh Bell (.373), Bryan Reynolds (.363), Kevin Newman (.341) and Starling Marte (.332) are all great options who will likely hit in the top half of the order for the Pirates. Osuna has been their hottest hitter over the past 30 days with a .464 xwOBA, followed by catcher Jacob Stallings with a .432 mark. Overall, the Pirates have quietly been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the past 30 days with a 3rd ranked .343 xwOBA. The Pirates currently have an implied total of just 4.31, which feels too low and will hopefully help them fly under the radar in this matchup.
Other tagged players: Jose Osuna, Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman, Starling Marte, Jacob Stallings