DFS Alerts
Overlooked Stack Against Low Strikeout Pitcher
How often do we see the Royals with a 5.6 implied run total? I fully expect them to be under-owned in a great spot against Jordan Zimmermann and his high hard hit / fly ball rate and lack of K ability. Cheap bats like Duda & Starling to go along with the main meat of their order reduce this stack’s salary total enough where you can easily fit in Jacob deGrom at SP and expensive one-offs to round out a GPP lineup.
Other tagged players: Bubba Starling
Don't Get Cute With This Ace
Once we start factoring in the matchups, we can see that Jacob deGrom is the one to start our cash game lineups with. deGrom gets the easiest matchup against a Marlins team that ranks 5th in K% and that are a bottom-two team in ISO and wRC+. I want Jacob deGrom for my SP1 in cash games if I’m paying up. The matchup is elite and deGrom’s numbers stand out to me as the best of this tier. I feel like there could be a greater argument to fade deGrom if he was priced heads and shoulders above the others in this tier, but he’s really not. He’s within $500 of both Bieber and Greinke on DraftKings, and within $800 of Bieber and Berrios on FanDuel. This is a “don’t get cute” spot with deGrom for cash games.
YOLO With This Starter
I think this Tigers matchup for Homer Bailer is the one we turn to if you’re going to YOLO your SP2 spot. Homer Bailey gets a juicy matchup against a bad Tigers offense. The Tigers have the 2nd highest K% this season against right-handed pitching and a low team wRC+ of just 76. Bailey also has an average 20.8 K% this season, so it’s reasonable to think there’s upside here. Yes, I realize we’re talking about Homer Bailey and there’s obvious blowup risk with this guy, but I think he’s viable in all formats as your SP2.
Red Hot Rookie Against WOAT Bullpen
As of this writing the Rays have the highest implied team total against Tom Eshelman and the Orioles. In three games this series, they’ve won 16-4, lost 2-1 and then won 12-4. Nate Lowe is red-hot and priced at only $3,600 on DraftKings / $2,900 on FanDuel. I would make him a priority on any Rays stack. Behind Eshelman is the Majors’ worst bullpen, making Lowe even more enticing as a cash game 1st baseman as he’s batting cleanup today.
Stud Lefty Against Pitcher Who Can't Retire Lefties
Jake Arrieta has been brutal this season against lefties. 11 of his 18 homers have been by lefties, and lefties are hitting .315 against him with a .932 OPS and .387 wOBA. He was able to go six strong innings against these Nationals a few starts ago, but Arrieta has shown some regression this season. His strikeout rate is down to 18.0% this season, his lowest since his 2011 season. Meanwhile his walk rate is up to 8.5%, his highest since the 2016 season, and his 36.7% hard hit rate currently stands as his career high. This makes Juan Soto my favorite target here for the Nationals and someone I’m willing to target in all formats.
Degrom is a no-brainer SP this afternoon vs. Marlins
Degrom has been his usual self again in 2019, pitching to a stellar 3.27 ERA, 3.27 xFIP and 3.37 SIERA with a 30.7% K rate, 5.6% BB rate and 14.8% SwStr. He’s in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park this afternoon (with the roof closed) to face the Marlins, who have a 77 wRC+ and 25.1% K rate vs right-handed pitching on the year. Over the past 30 days, the Marlins have the lowest xwOBA in the league with just a .282 mark. Since 2017, Degrom has fared better versus right-handed bats; since 2017 he has a 33.6% K rate and .249 xwOBA allowed vs RHB compared to a 27.4% K rate and .274 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB. Fortunately for Degrom, the Marlins’ projected lineup has just 2 left-handers. Degrom also has very wide day-night splits; he owns a 1.91 ERA and .546 OPS allowed in day games compared to a 3.12 ERA and .648 OPS allowed in night games. Also working in Degrom’s favor is a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Bill Miller to call balls and strikes. Given the matchup, Degrom is underpriced at just $10.8k on each site and will see very high ownership across all contests. The Marlins currently have just a 2.78 implied total.
Cheap Bats For Top Stacks
The Rays bats are simply too cheap for the 6.4 implied run total they’re currently sporting against Tom Eshelman and the awful Orioles bullpen. Putting up 29 runs in the past three games of this series, I expect Rays stacks to be popular options on today’s slate, but there are many ways you can assemble a more differentiated 5-man stack by using several of the cheapest parts of their order in Lowe, Choi, Brosseau & Zunino.
Other tagged players: Nathaniel Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Mike Brosseau Shane Bieber has best 30-day xFIP (1.99) and SIERA (2.32) on the board by a wide margin
Shane Bieber has been absolutely lights-out over the past 30 days with a 2.06 ERA, 1.99 xFIP, 2.32 SIERA and 35.2% K rate with just a 2.3% BB rate. During that span he’s allowed just a .236 xwOBA. Bieber has been solid all season, coming into this game with just a 3.45 ERA, 3.05 xFIP and 3.20 SIERA with a 31.5% K rate and 5.1% BB rate, a 46% GB rate, a 14.5% SwStr and a .312 xwOBA allowed. Bieber gets a matchup with the Twins this afternoon who have been one of the best offenses in baseball in 2019. On the year, the Twins have a 6th best 112 wRC+ and 20.7% K rate. However, they will be without sluggers Eddie Rosario and CJ Cron, as well as Willians Astudillo, making the matchup a bit better for Bieber. Without these 3 bats, the Twins have just 4 batters in the lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .330 vs. righties in 2019. Bieber will also have the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Ron Kulpa. Facing the Twins and with other good SP options on the board, it’s possible Bieber goes a bit overlooked Sunday afternoon. The Twins currently have just a 3.93 implied line vs. him and the Indians.
Sneaky Stack
Arizona is a team that I will be stacking today against Adam Wainwright. Arizona has a few good lefty bats to attack Wainwright with. Wainwright has really struggled this year with lefties, giving up a .241 ISO, .407 wOBA, and a 45% hard hit rate. I will be looking to target Marte, Escobar, Lamb, and Dyson in my stack, which should go overlooked in tournaments.
Sneaky Stack
Arizona is a team that I will be stacking today against Adam Wainwright. Arizona has a few good lefty bats to attack Wainwright with. Wainwright has really struggled this year with lefties, giving up a .241 ISO, .407 wOBA, and a 45% hard hit rate. I will be looking to target Marte, Escobar, Lamb, and Dyson in my stack, which should go overlooked in tournaments.
Sneaky Stack
Arizona is a team that I will be stacking today against Adam Wainwright. Arizona has a few good lefty bats to attack Wainwright with. Wainwright has really struggled this year with lefties, giving up a .241 ISO, .407 wOBA, and a 45% hard hit rate. I will be looking to target Marte, Escobar, Lamb, and Dyson in my stack, which should go overlooked in tournaments.
Favorite Bat To Spend Up For
Even at his expensive price tag, Yelich is my favorite overall bat on this slate. He gets a great matchup against Tyler Beede at home in one of the best hitters parks. Beede this year has really struggled against left handed bats, giving up .240 ISO, .382 wOBA, and a 45.9% hard hit rate. Yelich this year has has a .396 ISO, .498 wOBA, and 56% hard hit rate against righties. Hopefully the high price tag keeps his ownership down in GPPs.
Diving Down For SP2
Yesterday, attacking the Tigers with right handed pitcher Brad Keller worked out, so lets go back to it with righty Homer Bailey. Bailey has been a lot better this year and he gets one of the best matchups possible against the struggling Detroit Tigers. The Tigers this year against right handed pitchers are 2nd in strikeouts at 26%, 28th ISO, and 30th wOBA. Bailey is still not a big strikeout guy, but at his cheap price with a great matchup, I like this spot in tournaments.
Pivot SP At The Top
On this slate we have three clear pitchers at the top to spend up for, but deGrom is for sure going to be the highest owned because he is the best of three with the best matchup. Bieber to me is the next best option at the top. He is first in strikeout rate on this slate at 31.5% and second in swinging strike rate at 14.3%. Even with the tougher matchup I will pivot to the guy with higher upside in GPPs.
Viable Arm In a Favorable Matchup
I am going to try to get a deGrom/Tanaka pairing on the multi-pitcher sites today, as things start to get uncomfortable once you get below Tanaka. While Tanaka doesn’t offer the most strikeout upside on the board, he is a steady, experienced starter going against an offense that is full of younger players. I’ll side with the veteran today, despite the talent that exists on Toronto’s squad. Tanaka has been knocked around a bit over his last two starts, but we can forgive the start in the bandbox London park against the Red Sox, and the second one came against a good Rays squad. Expect him to get back on track today.
