DFS Alerts
Top Play At A Weak Position
Jose Altuve is an autoplay on DraftKings at $3,600 with the platoon advantage at Arlington but is also the top overall option on FanDuel simply due to the weakness of the position. Mike Minor has been good this season for the Rangers but advanced run prevention metrics indicate he’s been running extremely pure as the owner of a 2.54 ERA and a 4.41 SIERA.
Uncomfortable
Things that will make you uncomfortable: rostering Zach Davies in cash. Davies was a prime regression candidate after his torrid start to the season and the soft tossing righty didn’t disappoint with a mostly underwhelming string of starts leading up to the All-Star Break. Davies is still an untrustworthy fantasy commodity but his price has adjusted to the point where it’s more reasonable to roster his low strikeout rate (15.4%) in hopes of getting paid off by the higher priced bats he allows you to squeeze in.
Zach Davies is a value arm at home vs. Giants tonight
It seems like a recurring theme on Draftkings that Brewers pitchers are underpriced in Miller Park as we’ve been able to get extremely cheap pricing on guys like Brandon Woodruff, Davies, and others throughout the year. Though it’s obviously a hitter’s park, Zach Davies isn’t a terrible pitcher and his price of $5400 on Draftkings tonight is just too cheap to ignore, especially if you’re trying to stack Coors or other expensive bats. On the year Davies has a 3.00 ERA with a 5.00 xFIP and 5.28 SIERA with a 8% K-BB and 7.4% SwStr. As a low K% contact manager, Davies has always been a guy that outperforms his peripherals: in 551 career innings pitched, he has a 3.87 ERA compared to a 4.34 xFIP and 4.58 SIERA. Davies also owns a .338 xwOBA allowed, 5.7% barrel rate and 87.3 MPH aEV. He gets a matchup with the Giants tonight, who have just an 82 wRC+ amd 22.7% K rate vs. righties on the year. It is worth noting that the Giants have been better on offense recently, as they have a 7th best .334 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Davies also will have the benefit of one of the best pitch-framers in baseball with Yasmani Grandal behind the plate, as well as a pitcher-friendly umpire in Ben May calling balls and strikes. The Giants currently have a 4.27 implied line vs. Davies and the Brewers in Miller Park tonight.
Syndergaard is too cheap on both major sites vs. Miami in Marlins Park
Noah Syndergaard carries a price tag of just $8.1k on Draftkings and $8.6k on Fanduel tonight vs. the Marlins in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Syndergaard has had an up and down year which has seem him post a 4.68 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.27 SIERA 22.8% K rate and 6.8% BB rate. Despite the high ERA and peripherals, he’s encouragingly posted a decent 28.6% hard contact allowed and 46.7% GB rate along with a very good .280 xwOBA allowed, 4.2% barrel rate and 85.9 MPH aEV. The Marlins come into this game with a 2nd worst 78 wRC+ vs. RHP this year with a 25% K rate, and they project to have just 3 batters with a platoon advantage against Syndergaard tonight. The Marlins also have a league-worst .281 xwOBA over the past 30 days. With bargain pricing in a great matchup, Syndergaard projects as one of, if not the best PTS/$ play at SP tonight and will likely see very high ownership. The Marlins currently have a 3.73 implied total vs. Syndergaard and the Mets.
Locked In and Thriving
The Mariners officially have this still listed as “TBA,” but it seems like LeBlanc will pitch the majority of the innings tonight. The only question is whether or not they will use an opener in front of him. In any case, we can expect LeBlanc to be out there. The Angels went off for seven first inning runs and 13 total runs last night, combining for a no-hitter in the process while they all donned “45” jerseys in honor of Tyler Skaggs. How cool is that? Today would have been Skaggs’ birthday, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see another motivated team performance once again tonight. LeBlanc is certainly a hittable pitcher. Mike Trout could be considered the top overall bat on tonight’s slate. He appears locked in right now after driving in six on Friday, and his overall numbers remain off the charts. Try to find a way to fit him in your lineups.
Value Pitcher
I will have to suck up my biases and give some consideration to Julio Teheran tonight. He is rarely a pitcher than I even remotely consider as a DFS option, but a matchup against the Padres does give him a little more upside tonight. They lead the league with a 26.2% team strikeout rate against RHP this year, and the park in San Diego is definitely favorable for pitching. Teheran entered the break with six shutout innings against the Marlins, so that should have given him some confidence heading into the second half. I’m not a big fan in general, but his price is cheap, and he helps pave the way for some Coors bats. I’ll suck it up and tag Teheran as a core play despite my constant hesitations.
Talent Override
It’s not all that often that we get a slate where Chris Sale is pitching and he’s not the top priced option. Sale comes at a bit of a price discount on Saturday night as he’s priced as SP5 on DraftKings and SP3 on FanDuel, likely due to a perceived difficult home matchup against the Dodgers. Los Angeles has been a bit more bark than bite this season as they have been closer to neutral against left-handed pitching this season with a 105 wRC+ and .189 ISO. Chris Sale’s talent easily overrides a neutral matchup as his 34.5% strikeout rate gives him the best floor + ceiling combination on the slate.
Cost Effective Without Sacrificing Upside
David Dahl is the most cost friendly way to get exposure to the Rockies offense without unnecessarily sacrificing upside. Dahl has been stellar against right-handed pitching over his short career (120 wRC+) and has shown plenty of power with a .245 ISO. A home matchup against Tanner Roark is a favorable one for Dahl . Despite Roark’s solid 3.51 ERA this season he has struggled both with the ability to induce groundballs (35.7%) and generate soft contact (15.8%). The combination of hard-hit flyballs is unlikely to translate well at Coors and Dahl should find himself with plenty of run producing opportunities.
Kyle Freeland is being called back up despite 8.80 ERA over 6 AAA starts
In 2018, Kyle Freeland broke out with a 2.85 ERA over 200+ innings, though his estimators were in the 4’s. Projection systems never really bought it, and Freeland regressed hard in 2019 with a 7.13 ERA, 5.36 xFIP, 5.21 SIERA and 8.8% K-BB. While Freeland’s K% and BB% stayed the same from ’18 to ’19, his hard contact allowed jumped from 31.6% to 43.7% and his xwOBA rose from .299 to .377. Freeland was sent to AAA to iron out his issues, but over 29 2/3 innings he’s allowed an 8.80 ERA and 4.98 xFIP. Tonight, Freeland has been called back up and starts versus a good Reds’ offense in Coors Field where it projects to be 90 degrees with a small wind blowing out to left-center. Eugenio Suarez (.391 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yasiel Puig (.365), Nick Senzel (.364), Joey Votto (.333), Curt Casali (.321), Jose Iglesias (.294), Jose Peraza (.273) and Derek Dietrich (.226) are all options in the CIN projected order. Despite the nice matchup in Coors, only Suarez and Puig cost over $5k on Draftkings. Iglesias, Peraza and Casali are all under $3.6k, while Senzel, Votto and even Dietrich are nice values under $4.6k. The Reds currently have a 6.76 implied total vs. Freeland and the Rockies.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Suarez, Curt Casali, Jose Peraza, Jose Iglesias Yankees bats are the premier stack on the early slate
The Yankees have an implied total over 7 for the 2nd day in a row, facing Clayton Richard at home in the Bronx. Richard has had a tough year that has seen him post a 6.23 ERA, 5.27 xFIP and 5.55 SIERA with just a 1.6% K-BB and miniscule 5.9% SwStr. Richard has a very wide platoon split; since 2018 he has allowed a .370 xwOBA to righties while only allowing a .292 xwOBA to lefties. Unfortunately for him, the Yankees will stack their lineup with 7 right-handed bats. Roth’s WeatherEdge (available to premium subscribers) also sees a sharp jump in homeruns and total offense in the Bronx this afternoon, further sweetening this matchup for the Yanks. Aaron Judge (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Luke Voit (.397), Edwin Encarnacion (.390), DJ LeMahieu (.378), Gary Sanchez (.352), Gleyber Torres (.295) and Aaron Hicks (.291) are all great options. Brett Gardner (.283) and Didi Gregorious (.201) are also in play. Despite the implied total over 7, all Yankees bats besides LeMahieu and Judge can be had on Draftkings for less than $5k. Voit, Encarnacion and Gregorious are all $4.3k or less.
Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Edwin Encarnacion, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit Saturday's Top Arm
There are a lot of really good pitchers on the mound tonight, but all of them have a question mark or two. That includes Sale, who simply hasn’t been in elite form over his last three starts, scuffling against the Blue Jays (twice) and White Sox. His advanced metrics continue to indicate that he has simply been a bit unlucky, as he still owns a solid 3.04 SIERA and 3.12 xFIP on the season to go along with low walks and a 35% strikeout rate. While the Dodgers are a great offense, they are a little weaker against lefties, and I expect Sale to start the second half strong.
Attack The High Total
Mike Trout is obviously a great choice tonight, but I want to make sure to highlight a hitter in the Coors Field game. As such, I’ll side with Suarez as my favorite option. He has always profiled well against lefties, with a .380 career wOBA and .227 career ISO against southpaws. Those marks sit at .410 and .282 this season, respectively, and he owns a 56% hard contact against LHP in 2019. Throw in a matchup at Coors Field against a struggling lefty who had a 7+ ERA before going to the minors earlier in the year, and this becomes a no brainer.
Load Up The Too Cheap Lefties
The Reds left-handed bats have not gotten enough of a salary boost for a trip to Coors Field. Jon Gray is a good pitcher, but is more attackable with left-handed batters, where his strikeouts and ground balls fall to average. I started with Joey Votto as the 2nd Reds Core Play after Jesse Winker, but after building lineups today, I’m shifting more exposure to Scooter Gennett to save a few dollars at the weaker second base position.
Middle of the order power for Oakland should do some damage against Ivan Nova (8.05 DRA)
With a negative run environment on the west coast hosting this ball game and six teams above Oakland’s 5.47 implied runs tonight, the A’s with just a league average offense vs RHP (99 wRC+, 14.8 HR/FB) could be forgotten on this slate, but Ivan Nova (15.1 K%, 92.1 Z-Contact%, 18.8 HR/FB, 40% 95+ mph EV, .353 xwOBA, 8.05 DRA) is certainly reason enough to make sure that does not happen. Nova’s a pitcher who, at times, displayed a significant platoon split, but over the last calendar year, RHBs actually own the higher xwOBA against him (.343 to .328). This bodes well for a predominantly right-handed A’s lineup. The first seven batters in the projected lineup for Oakland are all above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year with Matt Chapman (144 wRC+, .281 ISO), Matt Olson (126 wRC+, .263 ISO), Khris Davis (112 wRC+, .262 ISO) and Mark Canha (128 wRC+, .241 ISO) all above a .240 ISO over that span. This is a difficult lineup to navigate. Along with the middle of the order power, the A’s have just a 20.9 K% vs RHP this year and should be able to make life difficult for Nova in this outing.
Other tagged players: Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Mark Canha, Ivan Nova
Tonight's Top Pitcher Could Go Overlooked
With some notable pitching bargains tonight and potent (but expensive) offense all over the board, it’s possible Gerrit Cole will go overlooked even though he’s the clear top option on the hill. Cole has the top K% in the league among qualified pitchers this season at 36.7%, and he is facing a Rangers offense that has the 3rd highest team K% in the league. A strong -215 favorite, Cole has a good chance to put up a quality start, win, and a high K total tonight at relatively low ownership.
