DFS Alerts
Too Cheap on Every Site
All the Rays are mega cheap on FanDuel, but Nate Lowe has an affordable price tag wherever you look. That has landed him in core play territory for me today. He should stay locked into the middle of the order after cracking a pair of home runs in the second game of yesterday’s double-header, and he is gaining confidence at the MLB level with a .320 average and 1.374 OPS so far in July, with five home runs in 28 at-bats. The sample size is obviously small, but the good times should continue to roll against a bad Baltimore pitching staff, including what could be the league’s worst bullpen. The Orioles don’t even know who is starting today, so it’s basically a full bullpen game. Yikes.
Blossoming Into a Superstar
The budding star that is Juan Soto just continues to impress and grow at the major league level. He should be full of confidence after blasting a go ahead, game-winning two run homer with two outs in the ninth inning on Saturday, and Soto matches up extremely well against Jake Arrieta, who has allowed a .387 wOBA and a massive hard contact rate to lefty bats this season. Soto has a 1.065 OPS so far this month, and he should keep humming along in the second half.
Sunday's Top Arm
This is one of the biggest no brainer selections that I have seen on any main slate this year. The Marlins have an implied team total of just 2.7 runs today, and deGrom maintains an elite profile across the board. He owns a 3.27 ERA and xFIP on the year to go along with a 31% strikeout rate. His record is a ridiculous 14-16 over the past two seasons despite elite numbers, which tells you everything you need to know about the “win” stat for pitchers. The Mets couldn’t score for him last year, and the bullpen has let him down this year. Hopefully, deGrom can do everything on his own today.
Overlooked Bats In A Perceived Bad Matchup
Madison Bumgarner is typically not someone I go out of my way to target against, but with the big ballpark downgrade in Miller Park and the Brewers sporting a 4.8 implied run total currently, the righty bats in this lineup may go significantly overlooked tonight. Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar & Keston Hiura are all under $4k on DraftKings and get the platoon advantage over Bumgarner who is pretty much a league-average pitcher in this split over the past two years (20.1% K, .322 wOBA, .177 ISO). None may be cash plays on tonight’s slate, but add Yasmani Grandal in the mix and you have a 5-man stack with well enough power upside that will likely be lower owned in large-field GPPs.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Keston Hiura
Cheapest Stack With A Healthy Run Total
The Cardinals have noticeably underperformed this year, but the stack continues to be underpriced with no player salary tonight over $3800 on DraftKings. Merrill Kelly has a fly ball lean and has given up at least one home run and two extra base hits in more than half of his starts this season, giving the Cards a healthy 4.9 implied run total currently. With several great 10k+ SP options on tonight’s slate, this cheap 5-man stack can allow you to jam in two of those options as well as differentiating yourself in GPPs from the chalk bats in Coors Field.
Other tagged players: Jose Martinez, Tyler O'Neill, Paul DeJong, Paul Goldschmidt Sneaky One Off
Joey Gallo is a guy I really like in tournaments. He gets the lefty Wade Miley on the mound, who has pitched pretty well this year, limiting the damage. Gallo this year though has hit lefties well with a .409 ISO, .484 wOBA, 47% fly ball rate, and a 50% hard hit rate. We also get this game in a great hitter’s ballpark with some good hitting weather. I like Gallo as a one-off at low ownership in tournaments tonight.
Sneaky Stack
The Cleveland Indians are a nice sneaky stack today against Jake Odorizzi. In Odorizzi’s last 3 outings he struggled before going on IL. In those three games, he had a fly ball rate of 52.5%, hard hit rate of 61%, and his strikeout rate went down to 19%. Then we have the Indians, who over the last month of the season are 7th ISO, 4th wOBA, and 25th in strikeouts with only a 19.8% strikeout rate as a team. The Indians should for sure go overlooked tonight, which makes them a great under-owned stack in GPPs.
Sneaky Stack
The Cleveland Indians are a nice sneaky stack today against Jake Odorizzi. In Odorizzi’s last 3 outings he struggled before going on IL. In those three games, he had a fly ball rate of 52.5%, hard hit rate of 61%, and his strikeout rate went down to 19%. Then we have the Indians, who over the last month of the season are 7th ISO, 4th wOBA, and 25th in strikeouts with only a 19.8% strikeout rate as a team. The Indians should for sure go overlooked tonight, which makes them a great under-owned stack in GPPs.
Sneaky Stack
The Cleveland Indians are a nice sneaky stack today against Jake Odorizzi. In Odorizzi’s last 3 outings he struggled before going on IL. In those three games, he had a fly ball rate of 52.5%, hard hit rate of 61%, and his strikeout rate went down to 19%. Then we have the Indians, who over the last month of the season are 7th ISO, 4th wOBA, and 25th in strikeouts with only a 19.8% strikeout rate as a team. The Indians should for sure go overlooked tonight, which makes them a great under-owned stack in GPPs.
Rays bats in a good spot vs. John Means
After exploding for 16 runs last night, The Rays get another good matchup tonight vs. John Means. Means is due for heavy regression as he has pitched to a 2.50 ERA, but also owns a 5.15 xFIP and 4.67 SIERA. Means has done a good job with hard contact (just 30.3%) but does allow a lot of fly balls (47.4%) and his 8.7% HR/FB also screams regression. Means will likely be on a longer leash than usual as the O’s burnt their long reliever last night and used 3 more relievers in addition to him. Yandy Diaz (.387 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Tommy Pham (.362), Guillermo Heredia (.349), Avisail Garcia (.329) and Willy Adames (.253) are some of the options in the Rays’ projected order. Travis D’arnaud projects to leadoff and has a .353 xwOBA vs. LHP since joining the Rays. Michael Brosseau has a 182 wRC+ in 27 PA since being called up in addition to a 151 wRC+ in AAA and costs just $2.7k (!!) on Draftkings tonight. Nate Lowe has a 129 wRC+ overall with a 105 wRC+ vs. LHP in 13 PA and is also in play. The Rays currently have a 5.36 implied line vs. Means and the Orioles.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames, Mike Brosseau, Travis d'Arnaud, Nathaniel Lowe
Pivot Off Coors Stack
The Mariners are one of my favorite stacks on the slate. They face off against Matt Harvey in his first start off the IL. Harvey has really struggled against left-handed bats this season, giving up .273 ISO, .403 wOBA, and a 55% hard hit rate. The Mariners have struggled with the bat lately, but this matchup is too good and they should be able to throw out at least 6 lefty bats. The four guys I will be prioritizing in my stack are Vogelbach, Narvaez, Crawford, and Seager.
Pivot Off Coors Stack
The Mariners are one of my favorite stacks on the slate. They face off against Matt Harvey in his first start off the IL. Harvey has really struggled against left-handed bats this season, giving up .273 ISO, .403 wOBA, and a 55% hard hit rate. The Mariners have struggled with the bat lately, but this matchup is too good and they should be able to throw out at least 6 lefty bats. The four guys I will be prioritizing in my stack are Vogelbach, Narvaez, Crawford, and Seager.
Pivot Off Coors Stack
The Mariners are one of my favorite stacks on the slate. They face off against Matt Harvey in his first start off the IL. Harvey has really struggled against left-handed bats this season, giving up .273 ISO, .403 wOBA, and a 55% hard hit rate. The Mariners have struggled with the bat lately, but this matchup is too good and they should be able to throw out at least 6 lefty bats. The four guys I will be prioritizing in my stack are Vogelbach, Narvaez, Crawford, and Seager.
Favorite High Priced SP Option
Chris Sale is my top GPP option at pitcher tonight. His last three starts were disappointing against two bad teams, which could keep people from paying up for Sale. He is just too cheap being the 5th-highest pitcher on DK and 3rd-highest on FanDuel. From a talent standpoint, he is definitely the best arm on the slate, and he has the highest strikeout rate at 34.5% with the swinging strike rate at 14.2%. The Dodgers are a team I usually don’t pick on too often, but Sale is just too good of a pitcher with the nice price discount across most sites.
Lots of value in Astros lineup tonight in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park
The Astros will face Mike Minor tonight, who has actually been a solid pitcher this year with a 2.54 ERA, 4.43 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA with a 15.5% K-BB. Minor is likely due for at least some regression though, and playing in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, the Astros still have a favorable 5.34 implied total. Once they chase Minor from the game, the Astros will get plate appearances versus a Rangers’ bullpen that has the 6th worst SIERA (4.51) in baseball. Despite a solid total, the Astros have good value options on both major sites tonight; they are available for $4.7k or less on Draftkings and $4.3k or less on Fanduel. Yordan Alvarez (.461 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jose Altuve (.441), George Springer (.440), Robinson Chirinos (.385), Alex Bregman (.369), Josh Reddick (.325), Michael Brantley (.316), Yuli Gurriel (.308) and Tyler White (.256) are all options in the projected order. Altuve stands out as the best value as he costs just $3.6k on both sites. George Springer will leadoff and is just $4.7k on Draftkings / $4.3k on Fanduel. Michael Brantley projects to bat 4th and is $4.3k on DK/ $3.8k on Fanduel. Further down the order, Josh Reddick is just $3.5k on DK / $2.9k on FD while Tyler White is $2.6k or less on both sites. Astros hitters will also have the benefit of a hitter-friendly umpire calling balls and strikes in Mike Muchlinski.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Michael Brantley, Yulieski Gurriel, Tyler White, Robinson Chirinos