DFS Alerts
Robbie Ray (30.6 K%) is too cheap on DraftKings ($7.9K)
Robbie Ray remains an erratic pitcher (12.1 BB%) with a lot of upside (30.6 K%), who has now allowed a HR in seven straight starts (10 total over that span). He’s also facing a predominantly right-handed offense with just an 11 K-BB% and 17.4 HR/FB vs LHP. All that said, he probably also makes a lot of sense on this board. The strikeout upside is the easy part. Among those with a higher rate, Mike Clevinger has amassed his 41.7 K% in five starts against mostly poor offenses and faces the Twins tonight, Gerrit Cole is in Texas, where he’s allowed 11 ERs in 10.1 IP this year, Dinelson Lamet has started one game and gets the Braves tonight, and Caleb Smith also makes a lot of sense at home against the Mets. Also, although it may sound strange considering the home run streak he’s been on, Ray hasn’t been getting hit nearly as hard this season as in recent ones. Despite the 9.8% Barrels/BBE, his 86.3 mph aEV is a top five mark on the board tonight. He owns a very reasonable 13.0 Hard-Soft% during this seven start HR streak and receives a park upgrade in St Louis. Daily fantasy players can suffer a long ball or two if it comes with strikeouts and with only one pitcher above $10K on both sites, there are no soft landing spots. Ray certainly doesn’t have an easy matchup tonight, but he’s gone at least six innings in six of his last seven starts and costs just $7.9K on DraftKings tonight, which seems far too cheap.
Wild Pitcher Faces Potent Offense
The Yankees have the highest implied run total on the board tonight at nearly seven runs, and their stacked offense could exceed even that lofty total if opposing pitcher Aaron Sanchez can’t find his control tonight. Sanchez has the worst BB% among qualified pitchers this season at 13.0%, and he also ranks last in SIERA at 5.57. Every hitter in this lineup is in play, but I’ll be targeting the hitters near the top of the lineup, namely DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Edwin Encarnacion.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez
All LHBs in the Brewers' projected lineup are above a .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year
Shaun Anderson’s 13.3 K% is second lowest on the board, while his 42.9 Z-O-Swing% is worst among regular starters tonight. A very favorable home park has helped him suppress HRs a bit, but five of his six allowed have come in his five road starts and it’s not looking too good for him tonight with 38.7% of his contact above 95 mph and a .361 xwOBA that’s 38 points worse than his actual mark and worst on the board. The Brewers do own a surprisingly low 97 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP. However, they also walk 10.1% of the time with a 19.3 HR/FB vs RHP. At home, they have a 21 HR/FB and 38 Hard-Soft%. While LHBs have a reasonable .324 xwOBA against Anderson this year, that number shoots up 63 points by xwOBA to .387. The projected Milwaukee lineup offers four LHBs, with Eric Thames being the low man by both wRC+ (103) and ISO (.236) against RHP over the last calendar year. A top three of Yasmani Grandal (130 wRC+, .250 ISO), Christian Yelich (204 wRC+, .389 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (113 wRC+, .252 ISO) would carry a lot of upside in this spot. At 5.5 implied runs, the Brewers find themselves just outside the top five offenses on Friday night.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Eric Thames, Shaun Anderson, Mike Moustakas Get In Play Here
The Yankees lead this slate with a huge projected team total over 7 runs. Even with games in Colorado and Texas, the Yankees are the prime target in all formats tonight. With Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez being so wild, picking out the right individual bat is not easy, and it’s more important to make sure to get at least some piece of this Yankees offense in cash games. Sanchez has been throwing a few more strikes to lefties, leaving the more affordable Aaron Hicks and Didi Gregorius as my first looks here. Hicks (.274 ISO, 17.8% BB) has the patience to take walks and score, and the fly ball power to do the damage if he gets a pitch to hit.
Pay For The Bats
The expensive hitting takes priority for me tonight, which leaves Caleb Smith in the drivers seat for cash games ahead of the much more expensive Gerrit Cole. By all means, play Cole if you can afford him, but with his matchup in Texas and Smith pitching at home in Miami, it’s tough to pass on these savings. Smith’s 31.1% K rate with 7.4% walks qualifies him as an ace, but he’s been even better at home this season with a 34.6% K rate, 1.84 ERA and 2.76 xFIP. He threw 95 pitches in his first start off the IL, so should be good for another six innings with upside from there.
Jesse Chavez owns just a 6.2 SwStr% and is due some regression against the Astros
Jesse Chavez owns just a 6.2 SwStr% (3.65 K/SwStr) with a 90.9 Z-Contact%. So, although his estimators are around four and more than half a run higher than his 3.30 ERA due to four of his 27 runs being unearned, an expectation of an even more pessimistic outlook may be warranted because we’d expect his strikeout rate to drop. Facing the Astros (114 wRC+, 18 K%) in Texas is not likely to help the situation and lines makers are not buying into the low ERA with Houston implied for six runs tonight, the third highest total on the board. The projected lineup for the Astros includes several batters who have punished RHP over the last calendar year: George Springer (147 wRC+, .242 ISO), Alex Bregman (159 wRC+, .263 ISO), Michael Brantley (142 wRC+, .190 ISO), and Yordan Alvarez (197 wRC+, .396 ISO). The latter obviously still has some sample size issues, but is off to an impressive start to his major league career. With Chavez not expected to miss many bats tonight, the Astros could put on a show in the Texas heat.
Other tagged players: Yordan Alvarez, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Jesse Chavez Underpriced For The Ballpark
The Reds left-handed bats have not gotten enough of a salary boost for a trip to Coors Field. Jon Gray is a good pitcher, but is more attackable with left-handed batters, where his strikeouts and ground balls fall to average. Joey Votto is not the player he used to be, but it doesn’t get any better than Coors Field for a player with strong plate skills who hits line drives with a 40% hard hit rate. Votto isn’t the ideal player to use on his own in tournaments, but I love his skill set and salary for cash games and Reds stacks.
Underpriced For The Ballpark
The Reds left-handed bats have not gotten enough of a salary boost for a trip to Coors Field. Jon Gray is a good pitcher, but is more attackable with left-handed batters, where his strikeouts and ground balls fall to average. Jesse Winker has a skill set that is perfectly suited to Coors Field with his 27% line drives and 44% hard contact against righties.
Caleb Smith owns a 31.1 K% and only two of his 15 HRs have been allowed at home
Caleb Smith returned to pitch marginally well in Atlanta after a month on the IL and now gets another week off with the break. He’s allowed a HR in nine straight starts now, one of the dangers of a 29.3 GB%. Seven of those starts have been on the road however. It’s no secret that fly balls play much better in Miami and only two of his 15 HRs this year have been allowed during his five home starts. The 31.1 K% (77.7 Z-Contact%) in a great park certainly plays against most offenses regardless of the 11.6% Barrels/BBE. The Mets do own a split high 118 wRC+ vs LHP with a 17.8 HR/FB, but also a 15.8 K-BB%. Pete Alonso (194 wRC+, .475 ISO vs LHP) can hit it out of any park, but for less than $9K Caleb Smith still certainly has value with the upside he’s capable of. One of the larger concerns here is that he’s only gone beyond 95 pitches four times this year and not at all in any of his last five starts.
Other tagged players: Pete Alonso Headscratcher
DraftKings pricing for this Friday slate is a big head scratcher to me as some guys like Justin Upton are simply mis-priced. Upton sat the last couple of games before the All-Star Break but is expected to be back in the lineup on Friday night as he gets a dream power matchup against Mike Leake who has already given up 23 HRs on the season.
Matchup Over Skill
Danny Duffy is popping as one of the top point-per-dollar pitching options on the slate as he draws a favorable home matchup against the Detroit Tigers. The matchup is what draws the intrigue as Duffy has been less than impressive this season as the owner of a below average 18.9% strikeout rate and 5.12 SIERA. Detroit has struggled offensively this season so it’s no surprise they own one of the worst wRC+ (82) in the league against southpaws to go along with the fifth highest strikeout rate (25.9%). I don’t know if I have enough courage to roster Duffy in cash games when Robbie Ray is only $1,100 more expensive on DraftKings but using Duffy in tournaments is fine.
Huge Disparity
I wanted to write a brief note on Lamet because his price disparity between FanDuel and DraftKings is astounding. DraftKings has the Padres righty priced as SP3 ($9,800) on the slate while FanDuel has him priced as SP25 ($5,600). Realistically I think both sites have priced Lamet incorrectly and I do have some interest in playing him in tournaments on FanDuel where he’s deeply discounted. Lamet draws a tough matchup against the Braves but has shown a ton of strikeout upside both throughout his Minor League career and in extended Big League run – he posted a 28.7% strikeout rate in 114.1 innings back in 2017.
Braves are an intriguing contrarian stack option vs. Lamet
Dinelson Lamet recently made his first start since 2017 on July 4th after missing 22 months due to Tommy John surgery. Lamet is a talented young pitcher with a 4.60 ERA / 4.21 xFIP over 119 innings in his career, but is likely to be shaking off a good amount of rust as he works his way back. Lamet already had a control problem (4.22 BB/9) and pitchers often struggle with their command upon first returning from TJ. Lamet has always been a two-pitch guy (Fastball and slider) and does not have an out pitch vs. lefties, leading to a wide platoon split. For his career, Lamet has allowed a .366 wOBA to lefties as opposed to a .236 wOBA vs. righties. Freddie Freeman (.417 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nick Markakis (.369), Ozzie Albies (.342) and Brian Mccann (.340) are all good left-handed options in the Braves order. Also in play are Ronald Acuna (.387), Josh Donaldson (.379) and Dansby Swanson (.365). Braves bats are pretty affordable across all sites besides slightly high prices on Freeman and Acuna. The Braves currently have a 4.50 implied line vs. Lamet and the Padres tonight in Petco.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna, Nick Markakis, Brian McCann, Ozzie Albies
Yankees own one of the largest run lines ever seen outside Coors (7.12) vs Aaron Sanchez (7.93 DRA, .360 xwOBA)
Aaron Sanchez owns a 4.9 K-BB%, 6.16 ERA, 5.57 SIERA, 7.93 DRA, .360 xwOBA, 41.7% 95+ mph EV and career low 49 GB%. The Yankees own a 117 wRC+, 9.8 BB% and 19.6 HR/FB vs RHP. A 7.12 implied run line for the Yankees is one of the largest seen outside Coors and currently more than a full run above every other team outside that park tonight. The projected Yankee starting lineup does not offer a single batter below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Leadoff man DJ LeMahieu (110 wRC+, .156 ISO) is the only batter below a .178 ISO as well. Batters from either side of the plate own at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Sanchez over the last 12 months. There are likely no poor DFS choices in this lineup, though it can be argued someone like Brett Gardner (101 wRC+, .203 ISO) could be over-valued at $4.7K on DraftKings in the ninth spot. The Yankees should mash in this spot.
Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, Aaron Sanchez Expected Back From Injury
Scooter was dealing with a hamstring injury before the All-Star Break but is expected to be back in the lineup when the Reds square off against Jon Gray in Coors on Friday night. Gennett is a talented offensive player when he has the platoon advantage (117 wRC+) and is underpriced for his skill-set. Context (Coors) helps boost Gennett’s expected production as he headlines a typically weak second base position.