DFS Alerts
Brad Keller has just a 5.4 K-BB% and 89.6 mph aEV with multiple HRs in two of his last three starts
Brad Keller is a low strikeout (16.3 K%), ground ball generator (49.8%), who struggles with walks (10.9%) and hard contact (89.6 mph aEV). Except, he hasn’t really been generating ground balls that often anymore (below 42% in three of his last four starts). While he’s allowed multiple HRs in two of his last three starts and hasn’t gone beyond five innings in any of them, somehow, his xwOBA is down to league average (.321) over the last month. The season mark sits at .348 though, 27 points above actual, while a 4.46 FIP is his only estimator below a 4.63 ERA. The Nationals have an 11.4 K-BB%, but 13.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. At 6.16 implied runs, the Nationals are expected to be the second most prolific offense on the board tonight. With a .339 wOBA and .360 xwOBA against him over the last 12 months, LHBs have a real advantage against Keller, making Adam Eaton (113 wRC+, .101 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who costs less than $4K on either site, and Juan Soto (150 wRC+, .238 ISO) a necessary part of any Washington exposure tonight.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Brad Keller
Yusei Kikuchi has a .408 xwOBA allowed and 2.4% K-BB over past 30 days
The A’s get a great matchup tonight in Seattle vs. Yusei Kikuchi, who has largely struggled this year and has been exceptionally bad over the past month. Overall, Kikuchi has a 5.12 ERA / 5.07 xFIP / 5.12 SIERA with an 8.9% K-BB, 8.7% SwStr and 35% hard contact rate. Per Statcast, Kikuchi has allowed a .359 xwOBA, 7.3% barrel rate and an 87.6 MPH aEV. Over the past 30 days, Kikuchi has posted an ugly 7.03 ERA, 5.92 xFIP and 5.91 SIERA with a 2.4% K-BB, 40.5% hard contact rate and horrendous .408 xwOBA allowed. In his last start vs. the A’s on May 25th, Kikuchi was shelled for 10 hits and 5 runs (4 earned) with just 1 strikeout over 3.1 innings. The A’s have mashed LHP all year (122 wRC+ so far in 2019) and have a number of good options in their lineup tonight. Matt Olson (.386 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Khris Davis (.359), Ramon Laureano (.353), Chad Pinder (.352), Jurickson Profar (.349), Matt Chapman (.342), and Mark Canha (.327) are all in play. Marcus Semien (.279) has struggled vs. LHP but projects to bat leadoff and is just $4k on Draftkings. Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano and Chad Pinder are all $4k or less on DK and are great value plays. Matt Chapman has been the A’s hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .416 xwOBA, followed by Mark Canha at .391. The A’s currently have a 5.18 implied total, which seems like it could rise a bit as we get closer to first pitch.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano, Chad Pinder, Mark Canha, Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Yusei Kikuchi
Greinke in a great spot vs. Rockies tonight
Though he’s seen his K% decrease and SIERA increase for the 3rd straight year, Zack Greinke’s decline has been a gentle one thanks to his top-tier command. So far in 2019 Greinke has pitched to a 2.90 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, and 3.96 SIERA with a 22.6% K rate, 3.4% BB rate and 9.3% SwStr. Statcast likes Greinke more than traditional estimators do, as Greinke’s .284 xwOBA allowed is his best since 2015 and puts him in the top 20 of starters who have faced at least 200 batters this year. Greinke has also allowed just a 6.2% barrel rate and an 86.7 MPH aEV. Tonight, Greinke gets a nice matchup at home vs. the Rockies who are consistently bad on the road; they have a league-worst 69 wRC+ with a 27.7% K rate on the road this year. The Rockies have just one batter (Ian Desmond) who has an xwOBA greater than .315 on the road this year. Greinke is priced under $10k on both major sites tonight and will likely see decent ownership given the matchup and cost. The Rockies have a 3.77 implied line currently vs. Greinke and the D-Backs.
It's going to be hard to get away from Hyun-Jin Ryu (22.1 K-BB%, .264 xwOBA) tonight
The Red Sox and Blue Jays will throw their bullpens at each other. The Phillies and Braves feature two below average strikeout, contact managers in the Atlanta heat. Griffin Canning vs Lance Lynn would be an interesting matchup in another park. Canning owns a 15.1 SwStr% and 19.7 K-BB% against an offense with a 24.5 K% vs RHP. Lynn has a 31.3 K% over the last month. However, this game is in Texas, where Canning’s 36.4 GB% could be a problem and Lynn is facing an offense that refuses to join the strikeout revolution (17.7% vs RHP). To make matters even more difficult, this matchup appears to feature hitter friendly umpiring assignment.
In the final game, Dinelson Lamet makes his return from Tommy John surgery against an offense that has annihilated RHP at home. By default, that leaves Hyun-Jin Ryu as an essentially unfadable pitcher tonight. This, despite the fact that he’s the only $10K+ pitcher tonight and his 1.83 ERA is built upon an unsustainable 86.3 LOB% with 16% of his runs being unearned thus far. He’s walked just seven batters this season, turning a slightly above average strikeout rate into a 22.1 K-BB%. A 30.6 Z-O-Swing% has helped him manage contact to an 85.8 mph aEV and 4.5% Barrels/BBE, projecting a .264 xwOBA that’s just as optimistic as his 2.46 DRA, a bit below his remaining estimators (3.45 SIERA). He owns an even better .231 xwOBA at home since last season. The Padres had been hitting the ball well and, in fact, have a 104 wRC+ with a 22 HR/FB vs LHP, but were recently cooled down by the vaunted Giants’ pitching staff and still own a 25.9 K% against southpaws. Ryu is bound to be featured in a ton of lineups on a four game slate, but it’s difficult to see how you get away from him considering the conditions.
Two hottest offenses on the board (Red Sox, Blue Jays) will be facing full bullpen efforts
A combination of Derek Law & Thomas Pannone will face the Red Sox tonight. The latter has exceeded 40 pitches just twice since 5/4. With Hector Velazquez having exceeded 50 pitches just once since April, it now looks like the two hottest teams on the board (Blue Jays 157 wRC+, 7.8 K-BB%, 23.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week – Red Sox 163 wRC+, 17.6 K-BB%, 23.3 Hard-Soft%) will face full on bullpen efforts. Both teams were already projected above five runs, but the Boston run line is likely to increase as after Stroman’s scratch. Boston bats may now have a small advantage of being priced for Stroman rather than the Toronto bullpen. Mookie Betts (154 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) was already a strong value at $4.5K on DraftKings. J.D. Martinez (138 wRC+, .227 ISO) comes in at around the same price on either site. On the Toronto side, Vlad Jr. is out tonight, but Justin Smoak (149 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a strong value on either site at a low price in the middle of the lineup. Cavan Biggio (144 wRC+, .328 ISO) has been crushing RHP since being called up.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Justin Smoak, Cavan Biggio Start of CLE-KCR will be delayed due to inclement weather Thursday
The start of the matchup between the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals on Thursday afternoon will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Royals have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Zach Plesac not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the potential lengthy initial delay does increase the chances of a late postponement.
As reported by: Jeffrey Flanagan via Twitter
Outfield Power
This 4-game slate is well spread out with viable options in all four games. The best ballpark for hitting tonight is in Texas, where we can find some solid value bats on both sides, most notably in the outfield. While Lance Lynn has been great recently, he is a far different pitcher against lefties where he has just a 19.1% K rate vs his elite 34.3% K to righties. This puts the lefty bats of Kole Calhoun (.234 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (.294 ISO) higher on the list tonight. Calhoun is a strong value on FD and Yahoo on this slate.
Power Up North
There should be some fireworks in Canada for the 4th of July with the Red Sox travelling up north to play the Blue Jays. While the Red Sox are the first place to look, the Blue Jays left-handed power gives us some useful salary savings. We should see 3-4 innings from Hector Velazquez who has allowed a .250 ISO to lefties this season, followed by a mostly right-handed Boston bullpen. My first choice would be Cavan Biggio, but we can get cheaper at first base with the duo of Justin Smoak and Rowdy Tellez. Smoak has a .281 ISO on 46% fly balls and 50% hard hits with Tellez at a .213 ISO, 40% fly balls and 42% hard hits.
Other tagged players: Rowdy Tellez The Price Is Right
The Red Sox outfield is priced down again tonight on DK/FDRFT. Mookie Betts looks too cheap with his .371 wOBA on 45% fly balls and 40% hard hits. Now that it’s become a bullpen game for Toronto with a couple innings from lefty Thomas Pannone, I would add J.D. Martinez to the list of top outfield options on this small slate.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez Just Play The Best Play
It’s a small four-game slate tonight, and in tournaments, you can spread out as far as you want. But there’s no big mystery as to who the best pitching option is tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu not only has the best skill set on the slate with his incredible control, but he also pitches in a favorable matchup at home against the Padres while the other high end options are pitching either in Texas or in Atlanta against better competition. From a pure points per dollar upside perspective, Ryu is unlikely to stand out, but there is no reason to get cute when we have a pitcher with a 94:7 K:BB ratio at a fair salary.
Sneaky GPP Stack?
The Blue Jays have disappointed offensively all year long, but this could be a spot to buy in on a GPP stack. A few of their younger hitters (Biggio and Gurriel) have been breaking out of late, and you can also get guys like Guerrero and Smoak at reasonable price tags. Mix and match those combinations to get an affordable GPP stack, and the Jays have a sneaky high implied team total against Velasquez tonight. He’s nowhere near a pitcher we need to fear at this point, and I like this spot for Toronto. Anyone in the top six in the order makes sense here.
Other tagged players: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel, Justin Smoak
Independence Day Fireworks
While Zach Eflin certainly isn’t a gas can these days, he still has issues with left-handed hitters. Eflin’s ground ball rate dips to just 35% against lefties, while he has allowed a .334 wOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to them in 2019. Freeman quietly remains one of the better hitters in the league with a .314 average, .411 wOBA, and .275 ISO against RHP this year, and it’s a great matchup for him tonight. He’s my favorite overall hitter on the slate, and the Braves are a solid GPP stack as well, starting with the lefties.
Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Josh Donaldson The Top Thursday Night Arm
On a short slate, my mantra with the top pitching choice will almost always be “don’t get cute.” Ryu is clearly the top overall option on this slate, and I’ll give him a pass for the poor outing in his last start, as almost every pitcher is getting shelled at Coors Field these days. Ryu still has an elite 1.83 ERA on the season to go along with a ridiculous 94/7 K/BB ratio. It is amazing that any pitcher could have just seven walks in 103 innings in today’s MLB. The upside is also enhanced today against a Padres team that has the second highest strikeout rate in the league. Ryu can be used with confidence in all formats.
Searching For a Cheaper Arm
Dinelson Lamet was once a highly regarded prospect for the Padres, but he missed the entire 2018 season due to injury. However, he logged 33 strikeouts in 24 innings in his rehab stint, and he has shown strikeout upside everywhere he has been — including a 29% strikeout rate at the MLB level in 2017. He obviously carries a ton of risk given tonight’s opponent, but he’s a logical GPP play at his cheap salary on a short slate.
Marwin Gonzalez (toe) scratched Wednesday; Jorge Polanco replaces
Gonzalez has been scratched from the Minnesota Twins original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Oakland Athletics due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jorge Polanco, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot directly into Gonzalez’s vacated third spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Twins lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against Mike Fiers on the road this evening.
As reported by: Dan Hayes via Twitter Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco