DFS Alerts
Kevin Kiermaier (wrist) scratched Wednesday; Austin Meadows replaces
Kiermaier has been scratched from the Tampa Bay Rays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Baltimore Orioles due to left wrist soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Austin Meadows, who will now play right field and slot directly into Kiermaier’s vacated fifth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Rays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander John Means at home this evening.
As reported by: Eduardo A. Encina via Twitter Other tagged players: Austin Meadows
Chris Sale leads the slate in just about every major category (35.5 K%, 2.92 SIERA, .271 xwOBA)
Despite the presence of 27 other pitchers on this slate, Chris Sale is going to be tough to avoid. Double digit strikeouts in 10 of his last 13 starts, his season ERA actually sits at 3.82 after allowing eight earned over his last 11 innings, but among those with more than four starts, his 35.5 K% leads the slate by more than a touchdown over Walker Buehler (27.2%). In fact, his 29.7 K-BB% is higher than any other strikeout rate on the board. His 78.9 Z-Contact% is the only mark below 80%, his 2.92 SIERA leads by more than half a run, his 2.32 DRA by more than a quarter run, and his .271 xwOBA by just five points over Wade Miley. Even with recent run avoidance issues, his .235 xwOBA over the last month leads the board as well, nine points better than Buehler, who is the only other $10K pitcher on both sites. Buehler has decent matchup at home against the Diamondbacks (89 wRC+, 22 K% vs RHP) and may offer similar value overall, but for about $1K more, Sale offers much more upside against an offense with a 16.0 K-BB% against LHP. The Blue Jays have been on fire recently with a 155 wRC+, 8.6 K-BB% and 24.2 HR/FB over the last week, but it would still probably be a surprise if Sale weren’t to at least rack up the strikeouts again tonight. A fade is made even more difficult, by the presence of a few low priced pitchers in great spots (say in Chicago) that can easily be pared with him on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Walker Buehler
Danny Duffy (36.7 GB%, 89.1 mph aEV) could struggle with winds blowing out to left
Danny Duffy has worked 14.2 innings over his last two starts, striking out a season high eight Blue Jays in his most recent, despite allowing five HRs over that span. With just an 11.6 K-BB% this season, Duffy has survived by dropping his HR rate (12.9 HR/FB), though a 36.7 GB%, 42.8 Z-O-Swing% (second worst on the board), and 89.1 mph aEV make the sustainability of that HR suppression quite suspect. Should that rate falter, his estimators are around a half run higher than his 4.43 ERA, except for DRA (6.56), which really hates him. It’s safe to say that he may be tested today, not because of the Indians (82 wRC+, 13.4 HR/FB vs LHP), but due to the conditions in Kansas City. Kevin’s early forecast calls it hot and humid with winds blowing out to left. A power boost could give some Cleveland bats some extra value. Duffy has been HR prone to RHBs in the past and over the past 12 months batters from either side of the plate are within a point of a .335 xwOBA against him. Francisco Lindor (125 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Carlos Santana (142 wRC+, .177 ISO) are the more obvious names who have shown strength against LHP over the last calendar year, but more under the radar has been the proficiency of Jordan Luplow (155 wRC+, .336 ISO) and Roberto Perez (138 wRC+, .247 ISO). They are also the only four batters in the projected lineup above a .350 xwOBA over this span as well.
Other tagged players: Roberto Perez, Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Danny Duffy Tyler Alexander has a 20.5 K-BB% at AAA and a strong debut spot (White Sox 18.4 K-BB% vs LHP)
Tyler Alexander makes his major league debut for the Tigers in game two of today’s double header in Chicago. After Fangraphs didn’t even rank him inside Detroit’s top 26 prospects at the end of March this year, Alexander has made a statement at AAA this season with a 20.5 K-BB% in 73.2 innings that boosted his value to where he currently sits fourth in the organization by the same prospect writers with a 45 Future Value grade. He did allow five runs in his last start, but still struck out seven of 16 batters and 19 of his last 42 faced leading into his call up. Encouragingly, Alexander also faced at least 26 batters in three straight starts before his last outing and shouldn’t be facing any major workload constrictions here. While Alexander shouldn’t be confused for a top prospect with immense upside, he’ll be starting his major league career in a strong spot against an offense with some poor peripherals against LHP this year (18.4 K-BB%, 8.2 Hard-Soft%). At just $5.7K on DraftKings, he’d make an interesting compliment to Chris Sale or Walker Buehler. For that matter, the same could nearly be said about Ross Detwiler for $200 more against an even worse offense against southpaws on the other side (26.4 K%, 8.1 HR/FB).
Braves have four HRs and eight runs in 11 innings against Nick Pivetta this season
Over his last three starts, all against NL East opponents, Nick Pivetta has allowed seven HRs with eight walks and just 11 strikeouts. The contact issues were tolerated when he was missing lots of bats, but now he owns a 19.4 K% on the season and over the last month. A .319 BABIP may seem a bit high until realizing his 27.3 LD% with an 89.2 mph aEV, to which he adds an 11.1% Barrels/BBE rate. As a result, his .377 xwOBA is highest on the board among those with more than one start, while he must face a proficient Braves’ lineup in the heat in Atlanta tonight. A 5.76 implied run rate is just fifth on this board. While RHBs actually own a higher wOBA against Pivetta over the last calendar year (.356 to .333), both drop to exactly .328 by xwOBA. The Braves send a lineup at him that includes Ronald Acuna (129 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .230 ISO), Josh Donaldson (122 wRC+, .224 ISO), and Austin Riley (103 wRC+, .246 ISO), all with significant power against RHP. In fact, Ozzie Albies (74 wRC+, .149 ISO) is the only batter in the front seven below either a 95 wRC+ or .150 ISO vs RHP over the last 12 months. The Braves have homered four times and scored eight runs in 11 innings against Pivetta this season and the onslaught seems more likely than not to continue tonight.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Nick Pivetta, Josh Donaldson, Austin Riley Site Specific Values
If you can’t find a way to get Chris Sale into cash game lineups tonight, then I’d be looking down for some meaningful savings. Kyle Gibson is noticeably cheap on FD at $7,100 and is a strong tournament option at the very least, and cash game viable depending on your tolerance level for cheap bats. His numbers are strong against righties with 26.4% strikeouts and 49% ground balls and that should help him against this right-handed heavy Oakland team in addition to the ballpark upgrade that he gets tonight.
Jhoulys Chacin has a .354 xwOBA with more than 40% of contact above a 95 mph EV
Surprisingly, Jhoulys Chacin has a 6.2% Barrels/BBE rate that’s top 20% of the board tonight, yet he owns just a 7.7 K-BB% with a 35 GB% and 40.9% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. He’s allowed 15 HRs in 15 starts. How he’s kept his Barrel rate so low is a complete mystery, but with a 5.42 ERA, 6.96 DRA and .354 xwOBA, he’s exactly the kind of pitcher players want to attack in a power friendly park tonight. Never mind five runs, there are four teams above six implied runs on this slate, which puts the Reds at 4.94 just near the middle of this board. While Chacin had a substantial platoon split last season and really for his career, RHBs have joined LHBs in pounding him this year for a .356 wOBA and 10 of his 15 HRs allowed in just 43 more PAs. That said, expect the Reds to line up LH heavy toward the top with Jesse Winker (139 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Joey Votto (110 wRC+, .157 ISO), Scooter Gennett (125 wRC+, .207 ISO), and Derek Dietrich (118 wRC+, .244 ISO) all projecting well, along with Eugenio Suarez (101 wRC+, .220 ISO) from the right-hand side, who owns a 211 wRC+ and 57.9 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Derek Dietrich, Jhoulys Chacin Just Too Cheap
Trevor Story at home against a lefty is a top play on any slate at any salary, but with his still discounted price across the industry after coming off the IL, this is a don’t overthink it situation. Wade Miley is a decent pitcher, and the Houston bullpen is good, but not nearly enough to offset a .292 ISO and 49% hard hits from Story over the past two seasons against lefties and the Coors Field factor adding upside to the whole lineup around him.
Better Than Everybody Else
There is no need to overthink it here. Chris Sale is the best pitcher on this slate, and even when he’s “bad” like he’s been the past couple starts, he’s still pretty good. He has 8+ strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 starts which gives him both the highest floor and the highest ceiling on this slate by a wide margin. On two-pitcher sites it’s easy to pair him with a cheap SP2 to make the salaries work, and at least in cash games on FD, I’d rather punt a couple bats than try to get sneaky here.
Contrarian GPP Offense
The bats in the games at Coors Field and Arlington are going to get the most attention tonight, and anything else will likely count as a contrarian build. Don’t sleep on the Reds. They have been playing better baseball of late, and they draw a fine matchup here against a declining, below average starter in Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin has an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP in the mid-fives this year, and he has allowed hard contact at a massive 47% clip. His batted ball profile shows a lean toward struggling against lefties, and his neutral splits this year are largely a result of luck-driven factors. I like the lefty stack here, especially now that Scooter Gennett is healthy. Gennett, Dietrich, and Winker make for a great mini-stack, and Votto could also be thrown in if you want to stack it up even more.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Scooter Gennett
Great Price On FanDuel
We don’t have a lot of cheap options today, and I really like this price for Kyle Gibson on FanDuel. The projected starting lineup has seven right-handed hitters, and if this is the case, it’s a really plus matchup for Gibson. Gibson has a .310 wOBA with a .130 ISO and a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. I’ll be waiting to see what the lineup looks like, but with the pitcher’s umpire and this ballpark, he’s certainly in play at this price point.
Jam Him In
If Alex Bregman played half his games in Coors Field, we would view him in a completely different light. He’s already one of the best hitters in the league, but his elite plate skills combined with his power would give him cartoonish numbers with regular at bats in this altitude. Colorado’s Peter Lambert has struck out just 11% of right-handed batters, and that is going to lead to way too many balls in play from this Houston team. Bregman is the best combo of fly balls and contact and is my first plug and play in cash games tonight.
Utilizing The Hitter-Friendly Park
Coors Field is playing like a little league stadium this month, as games at Colorado’s home park have played to an AVERAGE of around 18 runs per game over the last three weeks. It has been a ridiculous run of offense, and I wouldn’t expect that to slow down tonight. Vegas has installed this game with a whopping total of 14 runs, and Houston’s offense should absolutely be able to do damage against an underwhelming righty in Peter Lambert. You can stack this lineup from top to bottom with Springer, Bregman, and Brantley offering the most power upside. Josh Reddick is also in play as a more reasonably-priced option, and you really can’t go wrong here. Houston is clearly the top offense on the board this evening.
Bounce Back Spot?
Chris Sale has been victimized by some bad BABIP luck over his last two starts, which resulted in surprisingly underwhelming home outings against the Blue Jays and White Sox. We can only hope that serves to lower his ownership a bit tonight. The command has still been there with an 18/3 K/BB ratio over 11 innings in those two starts, and I’m not concerned in the longer term outlook. He still has a ridiculous 35.5% strikeout rate for the year to go along with low walks and a sub-3.00 SIERA and xFIP. He’s fine. Expect him to go into the All Star break on a high note with a rebound performance against those same Blue Jays that roughed him up a week and a half ago.
Value! Value! Value!
On a slate that offers a lot of great spend up options with a total of 14 in Coors Field and Chris Sale and some other good offensive options, finding salary relief is a major issue. That’s where Austin Pruitt comes in handy. He’s priced at $5,500 on FD and $4,000 on DK, and he’s expected to be the “bulk” pitcher for the Rays tonight. Pruitt is stretched out and could certainly throw around 80-90 pitches here, and while he is no sure thing, this is still a pitcher who had a solid 25% strikeout rate at AAA in the first half. There’s potential upside given the matchup against the Orioles, and the cheap price tag is the primary appeal.