DFS Alerts
Take Advantage On FanDuel
Thames is priced up on DraftKings and FantasyDraft but he’s a really great value option on FanDuel. Mahle is using his fastball over 65% against left-handed hitters this season, and he has a .410 wOBA with a .435 CXwOBA and a .312 ISO with his fastball against lefties. Thames has a .410 wOBA with a .294 ISO against fastballs since the start of the 2016 season. The batted ball profile matchup is really nice for Thames, and when you throw in the price and ballpark, he’s one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Right Back To The Well
Kyle Schwarber continues to be underpriced on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. He has a .244 ISO with a .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He also has a 93.8 average exit velocity with a .464 CXwOBA against righties. His biggest issue has been strikeouts. Williams has a 13.5% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. I really like to target Schwarber against lower strikeout pitchers, and I like the fact he’s hitting leadoff for a road team.
Good Strikeout Upside
The biggest concern with Yarbrough is how deep he will pitch into the game. Over the last five games, he’s thrown 42, 91, 42, 90, and 100 pitches. He’s been really good against right-handed hitters this season and should face eight right-handed hitters in this lineup. Yarbrough has a .265 wOBA with a .125 ISO and an 85.1 average exit velocity against right-handed hitters. This lineup has a 24.4% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I like this a little more on DraftKings/FantasyDraft, but with the limited options, I don’t mind rolling the dice on FD.
The Strikeout Ability Is There
We don’t have a lot of options on this slate, so I’m willing to take the risk on a guy facing a low strikeout offense. Alzolay has a 16.3% swinging strike rate with a 36.5% strikeout rate in 32 innings at AAA this season. After a slow start to the season, the Pirates have been a lot better against right-handed pitching. That certainly worries me but like I said, we don’t have a lot of options, and Alzolay has an above average curveball.
Asdrubal Cabrera (back) scratched Sunday
Cabrera has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Shin-Soo Choo, who will now play right field and slot into the leadoff spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Rangers batting order but, most notably, slides Danny Santana all the way down to seventh, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Texas faces off against left-hander Blake Snell on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Evan Grant via Twitter
A’s bats are an intriguing play vs. Heaney on afternoon slate
On sites with an afternoon slate, you’ll have to get creative as there aren’t many hitter stacks that stand out. One lineup to look at is the A’s, as they will face Andrew Heaney who hasn’t looked like himself since returning from the IL. Over his last 3 starts, Heaney has shown an uncharacteristic lack of command with just a 13.1% K rate and 18% BB rate. Over the past 30 days, Heaney has amassed a 5.26 ERA, 5.53 xFIP and 4.87 SIERA with a .344 xwOBA allowed. The A’s have always put out a very good lineup vs. LHP and should have plenty of options to choose from. Matt Olson (.412 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Chad Pinder (.363), Ramon Laureano (.367), Jurickson Profar (.353), Matt Chapman (.347) and Mark Canha (.313) are all good options in the A’s projected lineup. All A’s bats are available under $5k, with Pinder and Profar under $4k. Matt Olson has been their hottest hitter with a .446 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Matt Chapman with a .422 xwOBA. The A’s currently have a 4.87 implied total vs. Heaney and the Angels.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Mark Canha, Chad Pinder, Ramon Laureano, Stephen Piscotty, Jurickson Profar, Andrew Heaney
Leadoff Hitter Against Pitcher With Wide Platoon Split
Anthony Desclafani still can’t get lefties out on a consistent basis, which is great news for Kyle Schwarber. The Cubs are rolling out four lefties, all of whom profile well here against Disco. My preference in cash games is Kyle Schwarber given his salary across the industry and his power upside in Great American Ballpark.
Scherzer gets a great matchup this afternoon vs. Tigers
Scherzer continues to show no signs of slowing down, as he’s put up a 2.52 ERA / 2.99 xFIP / 2.96 SIERA with a 33.8% K Rate, 4.8% BB rate, a career best 42.7% GB rate along with a career best 16.4% SwStr this year. He’s also allowed just a .254 xwOBA, 6.5% barrel rate and 87.4 MPH aEV. Scherzer gets a matchup with the Tigers this afternoon who have a league worst 74 wRC+ and 26% K rate on the year; they also have a 3rd worst 82 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Since 2017, Scherzer has had an advantage versus righties as he’s allowed just a .223 xwOBA with a 40.3% K rate vs. RHB compared to a .274 xwOBA allowed and 28.6% K rate vs. LHB. Fortunately Scherzer will face just 4 lefties this afternoon, making his matchup even better. The Tigers lineup will contain just one batter who has an xwOBA greater than .340 vs. RHP on the year. The Tigers currently have just a 3.03 implied line vs. Scherzer and the Nats. Scherzer will also have a good shot at getting the ‘W’ as the Nats are -320 favorites. His price is steep (above $12k on both major sites) but he should prove to be worth it.
Rangers are an intriguing GPP stack vs. struggling Snell
Blake Snell started off the season incredibly well, but has really fallen apart over the past 30 days with an 11.94 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 5.00 SIERA, and 10.8% K-BB. Over that time frame Snell has seen his dominant curveball collect a pitch value of -3.9; the pitch was worth a pitch value of 13.2 last year. His changeup has also gone downhill recently with a -3.9 value after it earned a 7.2 mark in 2018. Looking at his Statcast data, his curveball had a spin rate of 2517 RPM in 2018 and has averaged 2487 RPM so far in 2019, though over the past month that number has fallen to 2359. Snell’s offspeed pitches (curve, change, slider) over the past month have been ineffective as he’s allowed a .332 xwOBA when using them. He’s also given up a .358 xwOBA with his fastball over that time. Especially with Snell expected to see high ownership today, Rangers bats make for an interesting leverage stack with Snell clearly trying to regain his feel in the mound. Joey Gallo (.398 xwOBA vs. LHP), Asdrubal Cabrera (.331), Willie Calhoun (.329), Ronald Guzman (.324), Elvis Andrus (.312) and Danny Santana (.306) are all options if you’re looking to get contrarian. Delino Deshields (.276) has struggled vs. LHP this year but has a decent .310 career wOBA vs. LHP and will lead off at just $3.9k on Draftkings. Gallo has been their hottest bat with a .411 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Danny Santana at .394.
Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Delino DeShields, Danny Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, Willie Calhoun, Ronald Guzman, Blake Snell Arrieta is a solid SP option in spacious Marlins Park Sunday
On a clear decline for 4 years now, Arrieta has managed just a 4.33 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, 4.92 SIERA with a 17.9% K rate, 9.3% BB rate and 7.2% SwStr so far this year. He does, however, get a great matchup this afternoon versus a terrible Marlins offense in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park today with multiple factors working in his favor. The Marlins have just a 77 wRC+ and 24.8% K rate vs. right-handed pitching on the year. They also have just a 29th ranked .273 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Fortunately for Arrieta, the Marlins’ lineup has just two lefties today; Arrieta has struggled versus lefties with a .368 xwOBA and 17.1% K rate, but has a dominant .286 xwOBA allowed and 20% K rate vs. righties. Both lefties he will face (Granderson, Riddle) have an xwOBA below .290 vs. RHP on the year. Also working in Arrieta’s favor this afternoon will be a pitcher-friendly umpire in Ted Barrett. Arrieta is under $8.5k on both major sites this afternoon and has nice upside given the matchup. The Marlins have just a 3.77 implied total vs. Arrieta and the Phillies Sunday.
Nats have highest non-Coors total of the day vs. Zimmerman
Zimmerman is in the midst of another rough year which has so far seen him pitch to a 5.95 ERA, 5.48 xFIP, 5.29 SIERA, 8.1% K-BB and 8.3% SwStr over 39 1/3 innings. He’s also allowed a .334 xwOBA, 7.7% barrel rate and 89.8 MPH aEV on the year. Zimmerman has been a bit more vulnerable vs. lefties since 2018 (.345 xwOBA allowed to LHB, .312 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB). Juan Soto (.393 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Matt Adams (.354) and Adam Eaton (.336) are the only 3 lefties in the Nats’ lineup and are all great plays this afternoon. Also in play is Anthony Rendon (.441 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Howie Kendrick (.417), Kurt Suzuki (.324), Trea Turner (.311) and Victor Robles (.283). Soto has been their hottest hitter with a .418 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed closely by Matt Adams (.415) and Howie Kendrick (.414). Adam Eaton will bat 2nd at just $3.8k on Draftkings and stand out as probably the best value in the lineup. You’ll have to pay over $5k each to roster Turner, Rendon, Soto and Kendrick. The Nats currently have a healthy 5.97 implied total this afternoon vs. Zimmerman and the Tigers.
Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, Adam Eaton Affordable Stack In GPPs
With all of the high price arms on this slate and not a lot of cheap pitchers to punt with we need a cheap stack. For me this is the White Sox. They are very affordable with some power right handed bats to take advantage of with the lefty being called up from Triple A Lewis Thorpe. In 69.1 Innings in Triple A this year Thorpe has a 5.71 ERA so a stack against him is for sure viable in tournaments. I will be targeting Abreu, McCann, Moncada, and Jimenez in my stacks today.
Affordable Stack In GPPs
With all of the high price arms on this slate and not a lot of cheap pitchers to punt with we need a cheap stack. For me this is the White Sox. They are very affordable with some power right handed bats to take advantage of with the lefty being called up from Triple A Lewis Thorpe. In 69.1 Innings in Triple A this year Thorpe has a 5.71 ERA so a stack against him is for sure viable in tournaments. I will be targeting Abreu, McCann, Moncada, and Jimenez in my stacks today.
Affordable Stack In GPPs
With all of the high price arms on this slate and not a lot of cheap pitchers to punt with we need a cheap stack. For me this is the White Sox. They are very affordable with some power right handed bats to take advantage of with the lefty being called up from Triple A Lewis Thorpe. In 69.1 Innings in Triple A this year Thorpe has a 5.71 ERA so a stack against him is for sure viable in tournaments. I will be targeting Abreu, McCann, Moncada, and Jimenez in my stacks today.
Affordable Stack In GPPs
With all of the high price arms on this slate and not a lot of cheap pitchers to punt with we need a cheap stack. For me this is the White Sox. They are very affordable with some power right handed bats to take advantage of with the lefty being called up from Triple A Lewis Thorpe. In 69.1 Innings in Triple A this year Thorpe has a 5.71 ERA so a stack against him is for sure viable in tournaments. I will be targeting Abreu, McCann, Moncada, and Jimenez in my stacks today.