DFS Alerts
Favorite One Off
Anthony Rizzo is one of my top bats on the slate today. He gets Anthony DeSclafani on the mound, who has really struggled against left handed bats all year. DeSclafani is giving up a .288 ISO, .419 wOBA, 48% fly ball rate, and 51% hard hit rate against left handed bats. Rizzo has a .277 ISO, .419 wOBA, and a 43% hard hit rate to right handed pitching this year. This is a great spot for Rizzo in GPPs even at his expensive price tags across most sites.
Contrarian SP1
With Cole and Scherzer both on this slate, I think Shane Bieber is a guy in tournaments I can pivot to. Bieber this year has a 31% strikeout rate, 14.6% swinging strike rate, and a 5.8% walk rate. He definitely has the strikeout upside, and this Orioles team is 25th in wOBA and 24th in ISO against right handed pitching. He will for sure be one of the guys people skip over when looking at the top arms on this slate , so I love this for GPPs.
Too Much Talent And Upside
Blake Snell is a guy that I will take a shot with at his cheap price across all sites. Snell has been beat up in his last three starts, but they all were against very good teams. Now he gets a matchup against the Rangers who have the highest strikeout rate in all of baseball against left handed pitching at 27.8%. This year Snell still has a 31.7% strikeout rate with an 18.1% swinging strike rate which is tops on this slate higher than both Cole and Scherzer. Hopefully everyone gets scared away from his game log so we can get him at a lower ownership in tournaments.
Value and upside in Royals’ lineup vs. struggling Aaron Sanchez
It’s been another disappointing year for former top prospect Aaron Sanchez, as he’s so far put up a 5.89 ERA / 5.27 xFIP / 5.45 SIERA with an 8.9% SwStr. Sanchez always does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (49.8% GB rate this year, 53.7% for his career) but simply doesn’t miss enough bats (17.6% K rate) while walking too many hitters (12.2% BB rate). He’s also allowed a .360 xwOBA with a 7.5% barrel rate this year. Over the past 30 days, Sanchez has been even worse with a 6.17 xFIP, 6.33 SIERA,-1.6% K-BB and .373 xwOBA allowed. The Royals have a decent lineup that has both cash plays at stack appeal for today’s slate. Hunter Dozier (.377 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Alex Gordon (.355), Jorge Soler (.355), Whit Merrifield (.335), Martin Maldonado (.331), Lucas Duda (.313) and Nicky Lopez (.235) are all in play. Lopez is batting 2nd and costs just $3.4k on Draftkings. Soler will bat 5th at just $4k; Duda and Maldonado are priced under $4k but will be towards the bottom of the order. Royals batters will also have the advantage of a very hitter-friendly umpire in Mark Carlson this afternoon. The Royals currently have a 4.37 total vs. the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre Sunday.
Other tagged players: Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon, Martin Maldonado, Lucas Duda, Nicky Lopez, Aaron Sanchez
Cheap Shortstop in Great Hitting Environment
Shortstop is quite ugly today if not paying up for an expensive option (ie. Lindor, Turner) but you may have to punt the position to fit in an ace pitcher. Jose Iglesias has quietly moved up to 5th in the Reds batting order recently and has a minuscule 7.9% K rate with the platoon advantage against Jon Lester. At $3400 on DK, he’s got enough pop in his bat for a hot and humid day in Cincinnati where the Reds implied team total has ballooned to 5+.
Cheap Power Hitter Against Bad Lefty
Aguilar typically cracks the Brewers lineup against lefties where he holds a .230 ISO over the past two seasons. His main issue has been strikeouts, but that shouldn’t be an issue against Steven Brault’s sub-20% K rate. Regardless if Aguilar bats down in the order, his $3300 salary on DK is too cheap in a ballpark that favors lefty power. A great one-off in GPP and possibly worth a 1B punt in cash games.
One of the Top Offensive Options
Somehow, Groundhog Day has struck as the Indians have lost to the woeful Orioles by identical 13-0 scores in back-to-back games for the first time in MLB history. This should be a favorable matchup for them to get back on track against a weak pitcher in Ynoa, and Carlos Santana remains the hottest hitter on the team with elite numbers this month to go along with a .400 wOBA and .295 ISO against RHP in 2019. Fire him up as one of the top overall bats on this Sunday slate.
Surprisingly Affordable
Biggio’s price continues to be reasonably cheap on every DFS site, and he has found his footing at the MLB level more quickly than teammate Vladimir Guerrero. While he is only hitting .240, Biggio has solid advanced metrics with a .359 wOBA and .229 ISO in 119 plate appearances with a solid 18% walk rate. He draws a favorable matchup today against Brad Keller and is one of my favorite plays on the board.
Sunday Ace
There are a ton of good arms today, and I like the potential pivot to Cole and/or Snell in tournaments, but Scherzer is clearly the safe cash game cornerstone on this slate. He gets a great matchup against a Detroit team that has been absolutely abysmal offensively this year, especially against right-handed pitchers. They own a .283 team wOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against RHP, while Scherzer owns an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP under 3.00 to go along with a 34% strikeout rate of his own. There’s elite safety and upside with him today.
A Victim of Variance
Blake Snell had a 3.16 xFIP last year. Blake Snell has a 3.20 xFIP this year. Blake Snell had a 32% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate last year. Blake Snell has a 32% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate this year. This is the exact same pitcher. However, his ERA was 1.89 last year and sits at 5.01 this year. Variance is a witch. The “true” Snell probably lies somewhere in that 3.10 – 3.30 ERA range. He’s simply been a victim of bad luck with a ridiculous .357 opposing BABIP in 2019. His fortunes will turn around soon, and a home date with Texas could be just the thing to get him back on track.
Verlander worth the price tonight at home vs. Mariners
Even at age 36 with 2873 innings under his belt, Verlander hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down in 2019. He’s got a 2.67 ERA, 3.49 xFIP and 3.16 SIERA with a 32.6% K rate, 5.1% BB rate and career best 16.1% SwStr. Per Statcast he also has an elite .262 xwOBA allowed with an 8.3% barrel rate. Verlander’s career high 1.65 HR/9 is concerning, though he’s pitched well despite being homer prone, and faces a Mariners’ offense tonight that lacks home run power outside of Domingo Santana and Daniel Vogelbach. The Mariners do have a 110 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year, but their lineup looks very different after trading Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce as well as losing Mitch Haniger to IR. Verlander is $11.5k on both Draftkings and Fanduel tonight and will likely be one of, if not the most popular SP play across all contests. The Mariners have just a 3.06 implied total vs. the Astros today, and Verlander has a good shot at getting a ‘W’ as the Astros are -350 favorites.
Angels once again a great stack option
The Angels only managed two runs last night in a great matchup vs. Mike Fiers, but we can confidently go back to them again tonight in a matchup vs. Brett Anderson. Anderson has a 4.26 ERA / 5.13 xFIP / 5.43 SIERA so far on the season with a 3.6% K-BB, 7.7% SwStr and 41.2% hard contact rate. Even worse, he’s allowed a .360 xwOBA with an 89 MPH aEV on the year. The Angels have the 3rd hottest offense in baseball over the past 30 days with a 117 wRC+ and have a lineup full of options tonight vs. Anderson. Mike Trout (.488 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Albert Pujols (.386), Kole Calhoun (.352), Tommy La Stella (.338), David Fletcher (.337), Shohei Ohtani (.325) and Justin Upton (.307 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018) are all in play. Andrelton Simmons (.269) is also in play. Trout has been their hottest hitter with a .451 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Upton with a .404 xwOBA. Pujols, Simmons, Upton and Fletcher are all available for $4.1k or less on Draftkings. Fletcher is especially intriguing as he is projected to leadoff, while Upton projects to bat 4th. The Angels have a solid 5.16 implied line tonight vs. Anderson and the A’s.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons, David Fletcher Astros projected to tee off vs. struggling Kikuchi
The Astros have a healthy 6.44 implied total tonight vs. Yusei Kikuchi, who has really looked abysmal recently. Over the past month, Kikuchi has an 8.74 ERA, 6.34 xFIP and 6.36 SIERA with a -0.9 K-BB% and 39% hard contact rate allowed. Even worse, he’s allowed a .463 xwOBA during that time with an 88.8 MPH aEV. Kikuchi has been worse vs. righties this year (.308 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .357 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB) and projects to face 8 righties tonight vs. the Astros. Jose Altuve (.474 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), George Springer (.450), Alex Bregman (.379), Michael Brantley (.324) are all solid options. Tyler White (.270) and Yuli Gurriel (.299) have struggled but each own an xwOBA greater than .320 over the past 14 days and are also in play. Altuve is a great value at just $4.1k on Draftkings. White and Gurriel can each be had at $4k or less, while you’ll have to pay over $5k for Springer and Bregman. The Astros will also have the benefit of a hitter-friendly umpire in Tom Woodring. Expect the Astros to see pretty heavy ownership tonight across all contests.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Yulieski Gurriel, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve Jay Bruce (wrist) scratched Saturday; Roman Quinn replaces
Bruce has been scratched from the Philadelphia Phillies original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins due to the lingering effects of a sore elbow. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Roman Quinn, who will now play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco up to sixth and seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Phillies lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jordan Yamamoto on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Matt Breen via Twitter Other tagged players: Roman Quinn
Cheap Pitcher That's Boom or Bust
It seems as if Pomeranz has become a two-outcome pitcher this year. Either he strikes out 5-7 (and even 11 in his last start) with a 20+ point DK score or gets completely shelled for a negative score. While the Diamondbacks may only roll out two lefties tonight, Pomeranz will have the big home ballpark on his side. If he could keep his control issues (12.6% BB) in tact versus righties, he could be a steal at a $6k level salary to fit in expensive bats on this smaller night slate.