DFS Alerts
Let's Try This Again
This did not work out well with Logan Allen yesterday, but I’m going right back to the well with Strahm tonight. The Giants rank 30th in team wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and AVG against left-handed pitching this season. They don’t have a hitter with a wOBA over .350 against lefties this season, and only two guys with ISO’s over .200. Strahm has a .307 wOBA with a .236 ISO and a 23.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. The ISO number worries me, but not as much when facing this Giants offense.
Boom/Bust Value Play
If you’re looking to save some money and want some upside, Lopez draws a really good matchup against the Tigers. The Tigers projected lineup has a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. That with the .152 ISO really stands out when attacking them with right-handed pitching. Lopez has been terrible this season, and that’s why he’s the price that he is. This team has really struggled with sliders against right-handed pitching, and Lopez uses his slider 28.5% of the time against right-handed hitters. It’s risky but it’s the upside that could win you a tournament if it hits.
LAA-TEX has been canceled Monday
The game between the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers on Monday evening has been postponed due to the unfortunate and tragic passing of Angels pitcher, Tyler Skaggs, earlier this morning. Obviously, the teams have yet to announce when, or if, the aforementioned matchup will be rescheduled for a later date in the season. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Monday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Mike DiGiovanna via Twitter Other tagged players: Tyler Skaggs
Poor Starter, Poor Bullpen
Tampa Bay opened the day as -250 favorites and have seen that number move to as close as -270 in some spots, giving them a 5.7 implied run total which trails only the Texas Rangers. The biggest detriment to the Rays as a stack is that this game is being played at pitcher-friendly Tropicana which will make HRs harder to come by. Still, the Rays rate as one of the better stacks of the night, especially when you factor in Baltimore’s bullpen being one of the worst in the league with a 5.00 xFIP and a league high 1.92 HR/9.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows, Avisail Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier
Top Power Stack
You could argue Tyler Mahle is actually a talented pitcher, and I’ll likely have some exposure to him in tournaments on this small 5-game slate, but the reality is he has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters throughout his career. Over the last two seasons Mahle has allowed a .406 wOBA and 42.5% hard-hit rate against LHB. Combine his issues getting lefty hitters out with a hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark that inflates HR totals and you have the recipe for the top power stack of the night.
Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas Tom Eshelman is a low upside pitcher making his major league debut in Tampa Bay
Tom Eshelman will make his major league debut for the Orioles in Tampa Bay. He began the season in the Philadelphia organization and was not a prospect of interest. After making five starts for them at AAA (22.6 K%, 4.5 BB%), he moved over to the Orioles, where he currently ranks 22nd in the org. (Fangraphs) with a 40 Future Value grade. He’s struck out just 11 of 84 batters (six walks) in three AAA starts for Baltimore. Already 25 years-old, there doesn’t seem to be much hope for further development left and he’s never previously struck out more than 20% of batters or had a ground ball rate above 45% above A ball since 2016, as he’s toiled around the upper minors. While there’s always some advantage to the unknown, this wouldn’t seem like the type of pitcher we’d expect to generate a high daily fantasy point total or hold back the Tampa Bay offense. With the exception of DH Brendan McKay getting his first major league PAs, the Rays’ lineup does not feature a single batter below a .169 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year with only Mike Zunino (75), Kevin Kiermaier (93) and Avisail Garcia (101) below a 117 wRC+. The Rays currently top the board at 5.79 implied runs.
Other tagged players: Mike Zunino, Kevin Kiermaier, Avisail Garcia, Tom Eshelman
Tyler Mahle (24.4 K%, 19.7 HR/FB) and the Brewers (25.2%, 19.1 vs RHP) both provide Ks & HRs
Tyler Mahle generates some strikeouts (24.4%) with too much hard contact in the air (89.9 mph aEV, 8.9% Barrels/BBE, 44.4 GB%, 19.7 HR/FB). The Brewers combine a lot of strikeouts (25.2%) with a lot of power (19.1 HR/FB) against RHP. This would seem to indicate that both sides are worthy of some daily fantasy attention on Monday. While Mahle owns just an 8.9 SwStr% and perhaps a barely sustainable 2.74 K/SwStr, Mike Minor (24.4 K% as well) is the only other pitcher on the board with more than three starts above a 20 K% tonight and he’s facing an offense that rarely strikes out (Angels 16.5 K% vs LHP) in Texas. Mahle costs $7.5K or less on either site. Contrarily, the Brewers are implied for five runs exactly as of this writing, which puts puts them in a tie for the third highest number on the board. To say Mahle has had significant issues with LHBs over the last calendar year would be an under-statement (.392 wOBA, .368 xwOBA). Yasmani Grandal (139 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Christian Yelich (.197 wRC+, .373 ISO), Mike Moustakas (114 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Eric Thames (119 wRC+, .255 ISO) are all prominent bats in this spot.
Other tagged players: Tyler Mahle, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames Adbert Alzolay struck out 34.8% of batters in six AAA starts, nine of first 34 major leaguers
Adbert Alzolay has struck out nine of 34 major league batters he’s faced (10.6 SwStr%) with an 83 Z-Contact%, while also walking six (17.7%), allowing just two hits…both HRs. Just an 84.8 mph aEV on his 19 batted balls, the only two barrels he’s allowed leaving the yard with a just seven ground balls though. The team’s fourth ranked prospect (Fangraphs) with a 45+ Future Value grade, expected to be a bullpen arm, but struck out 34.8% of AAA batters in six starts, while walking just 4.8%. He’ll make his first road appearance for the big league club tonight with a slight park upgrade in Pittsburgh (assuming neutral Wrigley weather, which rarely happens). It’s also a park that suppresses RH power. Both of Alzolay’s HRs have been surrendered to RHBs (Ronals Acuna & Todd Frazier), though he’s had a lot of BABIP luck against LHBs without a hit on 12 batted balls. A strong week for the Pirates (121 wRC+, 15.4 K%) has pushed them to a season 100 wRC+ against RHP with just a 19.3 K%. However, they have just an 11.1 HR/FB vs RHP and 10.9 HR/FB at home. Although it may not be necessary tonight, Alzolay is a reasonable salary saver at $6.4K on DraftKings and although he only faced 19 batters in his first start, he went six innings in three of his last four minor league efforts.
Lineup Dependent
Tyler Mahle is BAD against left-handed hitters but every pitching option has some sort of flaw on Monday night. For as bad as Mahle has been against LHB he’s been just as good against RHB with an impressive 29.2% strikeout rate. Milwaukee’s current projected lineup has four left-handed bats in it (Yasmani Grandal, Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Thames) but has the possibility of going 5-deep if Ben Gamel draws a start. The more LHB are in the Brewers lineup the less I’m interested in Mahle as a tournament option but if he draws a favorable Milwaukee lineup he could easily be the top scoring pitcher on Monday night.
Best of a Bad Bunch
Imagine a slate where we are essentially forced to rely on a Tampa Bay long reliever as one of the top pitching options. Well, that’s what we have on Monday night as a dumpster fire of pitching options is pushing us to trust Ryan Yarbrough in a home matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore’s offense just lit up the Cleveland Indians pitching staff over the weekend but remain a favorable matchup for opposing pitchers – Baltimore owns a 25.7% strikeout rate and 87 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Yarbrough has been solid since being recalled from the Minors in late May and is Monday’s top point-per-dollar pitching option.
More Lefties Please
The Reds Tyler Mahle has been outstanding against right-handed batters, but his numbers against lefties leave a lot to be desired and give him a lot of risk against this loaded Brewers offense. Mahle has allowed a .282 ISO with 18.3% K to lefties on 40% hard hits. Eric Thames has the 2nd highest hard hit rate on the team after Christian Yelich, and he’s underpriced on FD for his .242 ISO and .376 wOBA.
More Lefties Please
The Reds Tyler Mahle has been outstanding against right-handed batters, but his numbers against lefties leave a lot to be desired and give him a lot of risk against this loaded Brewers offense. Mahle has allowed a .282 ISO with 18.3% K to lefties on 40% hard hits. Mike Moustakas has the 2nd highest ISO on the team after Yelich at .292 with a 45% fly ball rate and 47% hard hits. His contact is strong enough for cash games and his power upside is high enough for tournaments.
Advantage, Lefties
The Reds Tyler Mahle has been outstanding against right-handed batters, but his numbers against lefties leave a lot to be desired and give him a lot of risk against this loaded Brewers offense. Christian Yelich leads all of MLB in ISO and wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a 55% hard hit rate leading to a .399 ISO and .497 wOBA. It’s possible to spend up on bats on this slate without high end pitching that need to be forced in.
Salary and Matchup Outweigh Questions
I am nervous about the pitch count on Yarbrough tonight, as he’s been all over the map in that department. But this is a slate lacking for options worth paying for, and even if it’s only a few innings, he can be acceptable enough to pay off this DK/FDRFT price tag. He is not a strikeout pitcher, but could get a little help there from the Orioles, but his main asset is an elite 3.8% walk rate, which combined with his home ballpark, should give him a chance for some easy innings against this Baltimore lineup. Like Allen, I see Yarbrough as better for cash games than tournaments.
Have To Play Somebody
This is a rough slate for pitching. The most expensive pitcher is Mike Minor, but he’s in Texas facing a low strikeout team and looks overpriced. That leaves rookie Logan Allen as the likely popular SP1 based on his home matchup against a Giants team that ranks dead last in ISO and wOBA against lefties. Allen is not an elite prospect, but he’s expected to be solid and has certainly looked up to the task in his first two starts, allowing just two runs in 13 innings. The strikeout upside is not huge, and we’re more just hoping for some easy outs against the low power Giants. I view him as a better cash game option and not someone I will be all-in on in tournaments.