DFS Alerts

Pair of struggling pitchers in Cincy this afternoon may be worth stacking against

Jose Quintana had a 3.17 xFIP and 20.7% K-BB through April and looked to be returning to form as an ace rather than a 4ish ERA guy. He hasn’t pitched well since April though, and over the past 30 days has been ineffective with an ugly 6.39 ERA, 5.56 xFIP, 5.45 SIERA and 7% K-BB with a 39.5% hard contact rate. He also has a .339 xwOBA allowed over that time frame. Yasiel Puig (.369 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Nick Senzel (.366), Eugenio Suarez (.358), Joey Votto (.326) and Phillip Ervin (.418 xwOBA vs. LHP in 20 PA) are all intriguing options vs. Quintana. The Reds have a 4.91 implied total this afternoon.

Luis Castillo will be the opposing starter in this game, and he has a similar story to Quintana as he had started 2019 hot but has recently struggled. Over the past 30 days, Castillo has a 3.32 ERA but a 4.84 xFIP, 5.24 SIERA and an ugly 17.9% BB rate. He’s allowed a .329 xwOBA over that span, much worse than his .277 xwOBA allowed on the year. Anthony Rizzo (.411 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Kyle Schwarber (.367), Kris Bryant (.361), Willson Contreras (.353), Jason Heyward (.342), Javier Baez (.338) are all in play vs. Castillo. The Cubs have a 4.59 implied total and will likely be very contrarian especially given the more obvious stacks on the slate.

Leadoff Hitter in High Contact Matchup

With the lefty on the mound, it’s expected Fletcher will leadoff for the Angels sporting a 5.2 implied run total. Brett Anderson has an extremely low 13.8% K rate versus righties and Fletcher has a minuscule 7.6% K rate versus lefties. While the power upside may not be there, BABIP could easily go Fletcher’s way for a multi-hit, multi-run game in a good run environment.

Cheapest Bat in Coors

Let me make something clear. Pat Valaika isn’t good. In fact, he’s awful. But he’s only $3000 on DK in Coors with the platoon advantage and the Rockies having a 5.7 implied team total. Clayton Kershaw isn’t typically an arm I prefer to attack, but he’s not nearly the same pitcher as he was in the past, and this team just beat up fellow Dodger ace lefty Ryu last night. Valaika is simply a cheap punt at a scarce SS position in the best run environment of the slate.

Nats have highest implied total on afternoon slate vs. Soto

Gregory Soto has been atrocious for the Tigers over 17 2/3 innings so far this year, posting an 8.66 ERA / 6.00 xFIP / 5.89 SIERA, with a 3.4% K-BB and 8.5% SwStr. Soto has shown walk issues at pretty much every level, and that sort of thing doesn’t just magically sort itself out in the Majors. Projection systems have Soto as a 5.50+ ERA pitcher going forward and we can continue to target him as long as he stays in the rotation. Soto has averaged just 3.5 innings per start, so Nats’ hitters will likely see a decent amount of plate appearances vs. the Detroit bullpen which has a league-worst 4.70 SIERA on the year. Howie Kendrick (.454 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Anthony Rendon (.445), Yan Gomes (.419), Juan Soto (.360), Victor Robles (.351), Trea Turner (.346), Brian Dozier (.341) and Adam Eaton (.326) are all great options vs. the Tigers today. Kendrick has been their hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .448 xwOBA, followed by Juan Soto with a .422 mark. Eaton (projected to bat 2nd at $3.7k), Brian Dozier ($3.4k) and Yan Gomes ($2.8k) all look like great values. The Nationals currently have a healthy 6.31 implied line vs. Soto and the Tigers this afternoon.

Cream of the Crop

Houston hitters are the cream of the crop on Saturday night and Alex Bregman is my favorite hitter on the slate as he sits atop a weak shortstop position. Bregman’s offensive skill-set against left-handed pitching is elite as he’s the owner of a career 153 wRC+ and .248 ISO against southpaws. Things won’t get any more difficult for Bregman and the Astros once Kikuchi gets pulled as the Mariners own a bottom third bullpen in the league (4.74 xFIP) that has struggled keeping the ball in the yard (1.48 HR/9).

Adrian Sampson has 3.92 SIERA and 20.3% K-BB over past 30 days, is cheap vs. slumping Rays

The afternoon slate is another slate where we have to get creative at SP because there just isn’t much to choose from. Adrian Sampson hasn’t had a great year as he has a 4.14 ERA, 4.90 xFIP and 4.55 SIERA with an 18.6% K-BB, 5.1% BB rate and 9.7% SwStr. He’s been much better over the past 30 days though, posting a 3.99 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA, 24.2% K rate with just a 3.9% BB Rate and 10.6% SwStr. Looking at his profile, he hasn’t made any big changes in pitch selection or velocity, but he has cut his walk rate almost in half while improving his O-Swing% by 5 percentage points. The Rays have been a good offense overall this year and have a 104 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year, though over the past 30 days they have just a 89 wRC+. Sampson projects to have plus pitch-framer Jeff Mathis behind the plate, and will also have a very pitcher-friendly ump calling balls and strikes in Mike Estabrook. Sampson is just $7k on Draftkings and $6.7k on Fanduel for this matchup against the Rays.

Sneaky Stack

Arizona is my favorite stack in large field GPPs tonight. On a 6 game slate with Coors and a few other good teams to stack I feel like Arizona will be forgotton. I am still not a believer in Pomeranz and this matchup is against a team in Arizona that against left handed pitching is 27th in strikeouts, 3rd in wOBA, and 3rd in ISO this year. This stack will come in very low owned which is why I love it for tournaments. I will be targeting Marte, Escobar, Walker, Jones in my stacks.

Sneaky Stack

Arizona is my favorite stack in large field GPPs tonight. On a 6 game slate with Coors and a few other good teams to stack I feel like Arizona will be forgotton. I am still not a believer in Pomeranz and this matchup is against a team in Arizona that against left handed pitching is 27th in strikeouts, 3rd in wOBA, and 3rd in ISO this year. This stack will come in very low owned which is why I love it for tournaments. I will be targeting Marte, Escobar, Walker, Jones in my stacks.

Sneaky Stack

Arizona is my favorite stack in large field GPPs tonight. On a 6 game slate with Coors and a few other good teams to stack I feel like Arizona will be forgotton. I am still not a believer in Pomeranz and this matchup is against a team in Arizona that against left handed pitching is 27th in strikeouts, 3rd in wOBA, and 3rd in ISO this year. This stack will come in very low owned which is why I love it for tournaments. I will be targeting Marte, Escobar, Walker, Jones in my stacks.

Sneaky Stack

Arizona is my favorite stack in large field GPPs tonight. On a 6 game slate with Coors and a few other good teams to stack I feel like Arizona will be forgotton. I am still not a believer in Pomeranz and this matchup is against a team in Arizona that against left handed pitching is 27th in strikeouts, 3rd in wOBA, and 3rd in ISO this year. This stack will come in very low owned which is why I love it for tournaments. I will be targeting Marte, Escobar, Walker, Jones in my stacks.

Few Runs + Lots of Whiffs

JV is the top pitching option on Saturday’s main slate by a wide margin as the Astros are massive -270 home favorites against a watered down Mariners lineup with Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion shipped out of town. Seattle’s projected lineup is extremely whiff-heavy with four hitters owning strikeout rates north of 25% against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons and could be even more watered down if Kyle Seager remains out of the lineup. Verlander tops Saturday’s probable starters with an impressive 32.6% strikeout rate this season and has the slate’s highest strikeout upside giving him both the highest floor and ceiling on the slate.

Favorite GPP SP1

Brandon Woodruff is one of my top pitchers on the slate. In his last four outings Woodruff has had at least 6 strikeouts with two double digit strikeout performances. This is not the easiest matchup from a strikeout stand point, but Woodruff this year has a 29.6% strikeout rate, 11.2% swinging strike rate, and a 6.5% walk rate. I especially like Woodruff’s price on DraftKings at 8100, which is way too cheap with his ability to rack up the K’s.

Favorite Bat To Spend Up For

Yelich is one of my favorite spend-ups of the day. With all the high priced good bats to pay up for I think Yelich could come in under owned in a great matchup. He faces off with Jordan Lyles, who really struggles against left handed bats giving up a 219 ISO, 46% fly ball rate, and a 33% hard hit rate this year. Yelich against righties has a 403 ISO, 502 wOBA, and a 55% hard hit rate this season. This really is a great spot that could easily go over looked in tournaments.

Strong Power Bat

Matt Chapman has a great matchup today against the lefty Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs has struggled at times this season and Matt Chapman has great number against lefties this season with a 347 ISO, 46% fly ball rate, and a 46% hard hit rate. Chapman has looked locked in at the plate the last couple weeks and this should be a great spot for him today. For a six game slate there are a lot of the 3rd basemen I like today, but Chapman is my top overall play at the position.

Too Cheap for the Home Run Potential

Khris Davis can often be a frustrating roster his high 25%+ strikeout rate, but you can’t argue with his power. Facing Tyler Skaggs tonight, he holds a .294 ISO versus lefties over the last two seasons. He’s simply too cheap on DK at $3600 for someone who has one of the highest home run odds on the slate. A perfect one-off or the core piece of a full Oakland 5-man of righties against a pitcher who has a history of walk issues that seem too underpriced for their ceiling in this matchup.