DFS Alerts
Already in Midseason Form
Upton has certainly shown no rust after missing the first two and a half months of the season. He has smacked three home runs in ten games since his return to the big leagues, and he’s hitting over .300. The Angels draw a fine matchup here against an underwhelming pitcher in Brett Anderson, and Upton should be fresh after a day off on Friday. While his splits were weaker against LHP a year ago, we can attribute much of that to sample size. He has a .369 wOBA against lefties for his career, and Upton remains surprisingly affordable on every DFS site. He can be used with confidence here.
Ground Ball Specialist
Dakota Hudson is nothing special, but he is a viable option at pitcher tonight and has more value on multi-pitcher sites where you need a salary saver at SP #2. Dakota Hudson leads the major leagues with a 61.7% ground ball rate this year. That numbers rises to over 70% against right-handed hitters, and that benefits him against a Padres team where most of their power (Tatis, Machado) hits from the right side. There’s no massive upside here, but Hudson is a solid value play.
Top Offense of the Night
The debate for the top hitter on the slate is much more interesting than the debate for top pitcher, but I’ll side with Springer. The Astros have an implied team total of a whopping 6.2 runs against a soft-throwing LHP in Kikuchi, and this is a team that is built to dominate against lefties. Springer owns a .372 wOBA and .229 ISO over the last two seasons and could get five at-bats out of the leadoff spot tonight. He matches up well with Kikuchi and is my top bat on the slate. Jose Altuve remains under-priced on DK and is a core play over there, as well.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve Top Pitcher on the Slate
It’s an obvious choice for the top arm on the Saturday night slate. Jon Gray and Clayton Kershaw have to pitch in Coors Field, which is a seeming death sentence at this point. Almost every game at Coors has seen massive scoring over the past three weeks. Verlander, on the other hand, gets a home date against the now depleted Mariners lineup. Verlander’s numbers remain impressive across the board with a 32.6% strikeout rate, low walks, and a 3.17 SIERA on the year. His safety and upside dominate anyone else on tonight’s slate, and I will be prioritizing him in all DFS game formats.
Kyle Seager (wrist) scratched Friday; Tim Beckham replaces
Seager has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Houston Astros due to the lingering effects of a sore wrist. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tim Beckham, who will now play third base and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which slides Tom Murphy down to sixth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Mariners lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Wade Miley on the road this evening.
As reported by: Greg Johns via Twitter Other tagged players: Tim Beckham
Brewers bats in a nice spot at home vs. barrel prone Archer
It’s been a rough year for Chris Archer as he has posted a 5.56 ERA, 4.78 xFIP, 4.82 SIERA with an ugly 44.4% hard contact rate and horrendous 2.33 HR/9. Though his estimators given him hope for some positive ERA regression, Statcast is less enthused as Archer has allowed an ugly .376 xwOBA on the year along with a terrible 12.6% barrel rate and 88.3 MPH aEV. Archer’s homer prone tendencies certainly do not project to play well in Miller Park. Christian Yelich (.440 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Keston Hiura (.368), Mike Moustakas (.358), Yasmani Grandal (.349), Ryan Braun (.331), Eric Thames (.315) and Lorenzo Cain (.313) are all in play tonight vs. Archer. Yelich has been their hottest hitter of late with a .447 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Yasmani Grandal projects to lead off and has also seen the ball well with a .388 xwOBA over the past 14 days. The Brewers have a healthy 5.82 implied total versus Archer and the Pirates tonight.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Eric Thames, Keston Hiura, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Chris Archer
Angels bats in a great spot tonight vs. Fiers
Mike Fiers has pitched much worse than his ERA suggests this year, as he’s put up a 4.20 ERA while also posting a 5.54 xFIP, 5.30 SIERA with an 8.5% K-BB%, 43.1% FB rate and .329 xwOBA. Fiers has shown no signs of improvement as he has a 5.65 xFIP, 5.60 SIERA, 6.4% K-BB and 41.3% FB rate. The Angels have been the hottest offense in baseball over the past month with a 121 wRC+ and will have a number of good options in their lineup tonight at home vs. Fiers. Mike Trout (.496 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Justin Upton (.472 in 33 PA), Shohei Ohtani (.397), Tommy La Stella (.361), Kole Calhoun (.349), Luis Rengifo (.329), Albert Pujols (.312) and Jonathan Lucroy (.322) are all in play tonight vs. Fiers. Justin Bour is also an intriguing option as he has a .469 xwOBA over the past 14 days as he seems to have straightened his swing out during his time in the minors; he can be had for just $4k on Draftkings. Tommy La Stella ($4k), Justin Upton ($3.9k), Kole Calhoun ($4k) and Jonathan Lucroy ($3.1k) all stand out as great values. The Angels have a healthy 5.44 implied total vs. Fiers and the A’s tonight.
Other tagged players: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols, Tommy La Stella, Justin Bour, Jonathan Lucroy, David Fletcher Wade Miley continues to outpitch projection systems and estimators; gets good matchup tonight
With mostly unspectacular career stats in the MLB, projection systems didn’t like Miley to start the year, and they really still don’t as he’s still being pegged as a roughly 4.75 ERA looking forward. Though he’s pitched to a solid 3.51 ERA and 13.3% K-BB so far this year, commonly-used estimators are not buying it as he has a 4.24 xFIP and 4.45 SIERA. Fortunately, Statcast loves Miley as his .277 xwOBA allowed and 5.4% barrel rate allowed rank among the best of qualified starters. He also has just a .311 xwOBA allowed on contact, which helps explain why estimators aren’t as bullish on him as Statcast is. Tonight, Miley is available for just $7.1k on Fanduel and $8.6k on Draftkings in a nice matchup at home versus the Mariners. The Mariners do have a solid 112 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching on the year, though they also have a 25.8% K rate vs. southpaws. Having traded Edwin Encarnacrion and Jay Bruce and still missing Mitch Haniger due to injury, the Mariners lineup tonight will have only one batter (Domingo Santana) with an xwOBA greater than .310 vs. LHP this year. Though Wade Miley’s 21.2% K rate on the year doesn’t scream upside, he does have a 29.5% K rate over the past 30 days. He makes for a solid floor/ceiling play tonight as the Mariners have just a 3.7 implied total tonight.
Eric Lauer is a decent value arm vs. struggling Cardinals offense
On a slate that is pretty lackluster at SP, it might make some sense to spend down at the position, especially if you are trying to get heavy exposure to Coors. Eric Lauer can help you do that, priced at just $6.2k on Draftkings tonight. Lauer has had a slightly below average season with a 4.32 ERA / 4.73 xFIP / 4.79 SIERA, 18.3% K rate and 6.7% BB rate. He does keep the ball on the ground a decent amount (44.8% GB rate) and has done a decent job limiting power (1 HR/9, 7% barrel rate) which has lead to a .322 xwOBA allowed, right around league average. Lauer is in Pitcher-friendly Petco tonight to face the Cardinals, who have been miserable at the plate over the past month with a league worst 74 wRC+. On the season, St. Louis has just an 89 wRC+ with a 21% K rate vs. left-handed pitching. Although he is lacking upside given the low K rate, Lauer has a good chance of hitting value tonight at his low price and is especially intriguing with how few SP options there are tonight. The Cardinals have a 4.37 implied line vs. Lauer and the Padres.
Two highest pitcher xwOBAs on the board over the last month are both in Milwaukee tonight
The two highest xwOBAs on the board over the last month are Chris Archer (.402) and Jhoulys Chacin (.399). As luck would have it, they are pitching against each other in a positive run environment in Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers own the highest implied run line outside Coors tonight (6.07) and need no further endorsement, but coming off a drubbing of the Astros the last couple of days, the Pirates are projected pretty strongly at 4.93 runs as well. Chacin has normally exhibited a large platoon split, but this year, RHBs are hammering him for a .363 wOBA with nine HRs. The two most interesting bats in the Pittsburgh lineup reside on the left-hand side though. Josh Bell (158 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is continuing on his breakout pace this year, while Bryan Reynolds (154 wRC+, .180 ISO) is having a fantastic rookie year. Corey Dickerson (138 wRC+, .257 ISO) is helping to drive this offense recently as well with a 245 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell, Chris Archer, Jhoulys Chacin
Merrill Kelly has quietly improved over the past month, gets a nice matchup tonight in Oracle Park
It’s been an up and down season for Kelly, who posted a 4.42 xFIP and 11.7% K-BB in March/April, and followed that up with a 5.78 xFIP and 5.2% K-BB in the month of May. Over the past month, Kelly has vastly improved posting a solid 2.36 ERA / 3.60 xFIP / 3.75 SIERA with a 24.6% K rate, just a 3.1% BB rate and a 12% SwStr. On the season Kelly has a .346 xwOBA allowed, but has just a .294 xwOBA allowed over the past month. Tonight, Kelly gets a nice matchup in pitcher’s-haven Oracle Park against a Giants team that has a 28th ranked 80 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year. The Giants also have a 29th ranked 79 wRC+ over the past month. The Giants’ projected lineup has just one batter (Brandon Belt) who has an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .340 on the year, and just 3 batters with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .315. Kelly should see decently low ownership and makes for an intriguing tourney option given his recent success and great matchup tonight. The Giants have a 3.75 implied line vs. him and the D-Backs.
Under-The-Radar Offense Looks to Keep Rolling
What team leads MLB in slugging percentage over the past 14 days? The fully healthy Yankees? The Padres, coming off road games in Colorado and Baltimore? Nope – it’s the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have played in relative pitcher’s parks in Pittsburgh, Miami, and Houston over that timeframe. Tonight the Bucs get a hitter’s upgrade playing in Milwaukee, and they are taking on Jhoulys Chacin, who has put up poor numbers this season with a 5.88 ERA (5.41 SIERA) and 1.51 WHIP. I’ll be targeting the Pittsburgh power hitters in this game, namely Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Bryan Reynolds, and Colin Moran.
Other tagged players: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran, Starling Marte
Dodgers bats in a dream spot vs. struggling Senzatela in Coors tonight
Antonio Senzatela has regressed this year as he has so far posted a 4.91 ERA / 5.01 xFIP / 5.51 SIERA with a 3.2% K-BB, 38.2% hard contact rate allowed and just a 6.6% SwStr with a .359 xwOBA allowed; all of these numbers are career worsts. Senzatela has shown no signs of turning it around over the past 30 days with a 5.65 xFIP / 5.60 SIERA, a 1.6% K-BB and .350 xwOBA. The Dodgers have been the 3rd hottest offense in baseball over the past 30 days by xwOBA (.338) and their whole lineup is in play with a whopping 7.31 implied total in Coors tonight. Cody Bellinger (.488 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Justin Turner (.393), Max Muncy (.387), Joc Pederson (.368), Matt Beaty (.353), Alex Verdugo (.347), Russell Martin (.315) and Chris Taylor (.256) are all projected in the LA lineup tonight. Verdugo projects to hit 2nd and is a bargain at $4.9k on Draftkings, followed by Turner projected in the 3-hole at just $5k. Russell Martin is just $3.7k. Bellinger has been the Dodgers’ hottest bat with a .474 xwOBA over the past 14 days and will cost $6k. Muncy has a .443 xwOBA over the past 14 days and will be $5.6k.
Other tagged players: Russell Martin, Alex Verdugo, Joc Pederson, Matthew Beaty, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Antonio Senzatela Jacob deGrom has a 33.9 K% last 30 days and has struck out 19 of 55 Braves faced this season
Despite potentially offensive boosting conditions and despite facing an Atlanta offense with a 106 wRC+, 17.6 HR/FB and 26.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, Jacob deGrom is the clear top overall pitcher on this board. He’s gone seven straight starts allowing two runs or less and has a 33.9 K% (15.2 SwStr%) over the last month, which pushes his season rate up to 30.6% (25.5 K-BB%). His 3.25 ERA is now in line with season estimators, but his 2.38 ERA over the last month is also in line with estimators over that span as well. DeGrom had some hard contact issues to start the season, but his aEV is now down to an even 87 mph with a .271 xwOBA. He’s already faced the Braves twice this season, both in Atlanta, striking out 19 of 55 batters faced. DeGrom has been back in 2018 form recently and will be worth the highest price on the board ($11.2K either site) if this continues.
Pitcher Should Benefit From Platoon Advantage Tonight
The heavily right-handed Detroit lineup has had trouble with right-handed pitchers all season, ranking last in the league in wOBA and 2nd in K% against righties this year. Anibal Sanchez will try to take advantage tonight in what used to be his home ballpark when the Nationals travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers. Washington is a strong -150 favorite in this game, and Sanchez has pitched better than his season averages during the month of June, allowing only a .279 wOBA and putting up a 3.09 ERA over his past four starts.