DFS Alerts
Obvious Doesn't Mean Wrong
We have two aces on this slate in Stephen Strasburg and Walker Buehler, but one of them is pitching in Miami and the other is pitching in Coors Field. On DK/FDRFT, it’s actually a very close call with the salary gap, but on FD/Yahoo, it’s no decision at all with the salaries so close together. You can make a case for a tournament fade simply based on ownership, but I’d rather just go over the field there. On DK/FDRFT, the recent hot streak of Walker Buehler makes him equally viable in tournaments, but if playing cash games tonight, try and find a way to get up to Strasburg.
GPP Contrarian Plays
Sometimes, in order to win on a four game slate, it’s all about being contrarian. Nobody likes to play hitters in San Francisco’s spacious park, but the Diamondbacks do have a reasonably potent lineup that now has Jake Lamb back from the injured list. They also get a matchup against Tyler Beede, who has had major control issues since arriving at the major league level. That’s always a recipe for a potential upside stack, and the Diamondbacks will carry minuscule ownership compared to the Dodgers tonight. Guys like Marte, Escobar, and Lamb hit in the middle of the order and all have some pop, and I like the GPP potential here.
Other tagged players: Ketel Marte, Jake Lamb
Immense Power Upside
While you can possibly consider a Dodgers fade in GPPs from a game theory perspective given the small nature of tonight’s slate, the numbers tell us that they are clearly the top hitters on the board. Their implied team total is approaching seven runs in a matchup against mediocre RHP Peter Lambert at Coors Field. Good luck, Peter. Bellinger checks in as the top overall bat given his .460 wOBA, .355 ISO, .450 OBP, and 1.160 OPS against RHP this year, and now we put him in Coors Field? There’s multi-HR potential here tonight, and the Dodgers lineup is viable from top to bottom.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Max Muncy Value Arm
In matchups against left-handed pitching this year, the Giants rank last in the league in ISO at .112, last in the league in wOBA at .265, 23rd in walk rate at 7.6%, and they have an above average strikeout rate. This is a good matchup for young lefty Alex Young, who is a fine salary saving SP tonight despite the fact that he is making his major league debut. Young showed solid strikeout ability at the minor league level, and he couldn’t ask for a better landing spot in his debut.
Thursday's Ace By A Mile
There’s really no other choice as the top pitcher on this four game slate. The only other ace pitcher that is throwing tonight is Walker Buehler, and the difference in matchups with Strasburg and Buehler is about as wide as the Grand Canyon. While Strasburg gets a date with the offensively-challenged Marlins, Buehler has to face off against the Rockies at Coors Field. Strasburg has managed to stay healthy all season (so far), and he is putting up solid numbers with 3.47 SIERA, 3.21 xFIP, and a 29% strikeout rate to go along with career-best 14.2% swinging strike rate. He should breeze through the Marlins tonight, and I’ll lock him in for all DFS formats. Differentiate your GPP lineups in other spots – this is not the place to get cute.
Can He Keep The Walks Down?
Alex Young will be making his Major League debut tonight, and with limited options on this slate, I’m willing to roll the dice on him in this matchup. He has a 15.2% swinging strike rate with a 24.8% strikeout rate in 54.2 innings in AAA this season. His biggest issue has been walks, but he’s been able to limit home runs in the PCL. The Giants rank 30th in team wOBA and 30th in wRC+ against lefties this season.
Start of OAK-STL will be delayed due to rain Wednesday
The start of the matchup between the Oakland Athletics and St.Louis Cardinals on Wednesday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Cardinals have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Adam Wainwright not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he continues to believe the most likely outcome is this game plays through following the initial weather delay.
As reported by: the St. Louis Cardinals via Twitter
Tucker Barnhart (side) scratched Wednesday; Curt Casali replaces
Barnhart has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Angels due to right side soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Curt Casali, who will now handle the catching duties and slot directly into Barnhart’s vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Reds lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jaime Barria on the road this evening.
As reported by: John Fay via Twitter Other tagged players: Curt Casali Pirates have a 75 wRC+ and 19.6 K-BB% vs LHP
Framber Valdez has a 10.7 K-BB% through 42.1 innings. That’s not very impressive, but estimators are all within a half run of his 3.61 ERA. A 60.2 GB% has really been his dominating trait thus far. That’s allowed him to generate a 5.0% Barrels/BBE mark despite an 89.2 mph aEV, resulting in a .298 xwOBA. Pittsburgh is known as a low power contact prone team. The truth is, they retain only one of those tendencies against LHP this year. They have a team 75 wRC+ and 13.0 Hard-Soft%, but with a 19.6 K-BB% vs LHP. Valdez is not a pitcher with a ton of upside, but he costs less than $7K on DraftKings in a favorable run environment.
Tanner Roark is due for HR regression (7.4 HR/FB, 89.1 mph aEV, .326 xwOBA)
Tanner Roark has league average peripherals (15.5 K-BB%) with a completely unsustainable 7.4 HR/FB, which is why his non-FIP estimators are a about a run above his 3.47 ERA. We can’t even say he’s been a strong contact manager this year, as his 89.1 mph aEV projects a .326 xwOBA. He does get a park upgrade here, but he’ll have to face an offense with a 113 wRC+, 17.3 K% and 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP this year. The Angels are sitting within the top third of the board at 4.85 implied runs tonight and they have some left-handed power to take advantage of Roark’s .348 wOBA (.351 xwOBA) against RHP over the last calendar year. Tommy La Stella (134 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Shohei Ohtani (150 wRC+, .302 ISO) and Kole Calhoun (116 wRC+, .255 ISO) have balanced the offense well from the left side. Mike Trout (202 wRC+, .361 ISO) goes without saying despite Roark’s .289 xwOBA and wOBA against RHBs over the same span.
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Tommy La Stella, Tanner Roark Zac Gallen had a 33.6 K% at AAA and an impressive debut
Zac Gallen had an impressive debut in which he struck out six of 22 Cardinals and allowed just a single run in St Louis, following up 91.1 AAA innings with a 33.6 K% and just a 5.1 BB% that has pushed him up to the teams fifth best prospect with a 50 Future Value grade and 114th overall in the league according to the latest Fangraphs rankings. For an encore, Gallen faces a marginal Washington offense vs RHP (87 wRC+, 14.3 K-BB%, 13.9 HR/FB) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. There aren’t a lot of high priced pitchers to pair him with tonight, but players who buy into his performance for less than $8K tonight will have a lot of room left over for offense with half the board above 4.7 implied runs tonight and 33% of the board (six teams) above five. Another interesting factor here has been a substantial line drop in Miami’s favor despite a majority of action on the other side.
Patrick Corbin has struggled (.348 xwOBA last 30 days), but may be best arm on the board in a great spot
Patrick Corbin threw seven innings of one-run ball, striking out eight Phillies last time out. It was only the second time in six starts he’d allowed fewer than four runs and his most strikeouts over that span. While Corbin has been okay (26.6 K%, 3.90 ERA, 4.04 SIERA, 3.28 DRA) it’s clear that the Nationals have not received the 2018 version of Corbin and that’s mostly due to the hard contact he’s allowed (89.7 mph aEV, 10.9% Barrels/BBE) with an xwOBA up to .348 over the last 30 days. This is a nice spot or him to string a couple of strong starts together. While the Marlins have just a 20.5 K% vs LHP, that comes with a 70 wRC+ and 9.5 HR/FB. That and the park should ease some of his contact issues. Corbin is only either second or third among cost among tonight’s pitchers and might be the top overall arm on the slate given the matchup. Mike Minor is in a pretty sweet spot in Detroit as well, but does not possess the same upside and costs $300 to $400 more.
Hot weather and struggling pitching could lead to a shootout in Philly
Conditions in Philadelphia call for an offensive bump (despite a pitcher friendly umpire) and Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta may be just the pitchers to provide some fireworks. Vargas has followed up a run of one run or less in six of seven outings with 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 14.2 innings (10 K, 7 BB, 2 HR) and the threat of physical violence against a reporter. With an 8.1 K-BB%, .266 BABIP, 9.7 HR/FB, 5.89 DRA and .322 xwOBA, regression was always coming for him. It was just a matter of how hard it was going to hit. To his credit, he owns a board low 86.2 mph aEV on the season and still has a .288 xwOBA over the last month. That’s where the temperature near 90 degrees comes in. It will likely carry those baseballs a bit further. Each of the first five in the projected Philadelphia batting order (Scott Kingery, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto) are all above a 100 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year with the lefty, Harper, having the most success (146 wRC+, .270 ISO).
On the other end, Nick Pivetta has allowed five HRs over his last two starts and multiple HRs in five of his nine starts overall. A quarter of his fly balls have left the yard this year, which is the same percentage of his overall contact that have been line drives. So while his non-FIP estimators are closer to four and a half, his .372 xwOBA is just eight points away from his actual mark. He’s striking out fewer batters this year with 10.8% of his contact qualifying as Barrels. Batters from either side of the plate have exactly a .328 xwOBA against Pivetta over the last calendar year (with actual wOBAs a bit higher). Each of the first seven Mets in the projected order are above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months with Pete Alonso (146 wRC+, .305 ISO), Michael Conforto (139 wRC+, .256 ISO), Todd Frazier (108 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Dominic Smith (124 wRC+, .228 ISO) flashing the most power. Robinson Cano (110 wRC+, .193 ISO) continues to be very cheap due to recent struggles.
Still Hitting Lefties
Ryan Braun has strong numbers against left-handed pitching over his career, and while his surface numbers have dipped in the small sample this season, he still comes in with a 43% hard hit rate and solid contact against lefties. The Mariners Wade LeBlanc has a dangerously low 14% K rate against righties this season and is backed by a terrible bullpen. All the Brewers are in play here tonight with Braun being a notable value on FD/Yahoo.
Matchup Makes The Difference
Patrick Corbin has not looked as elite recently, and I don’t see him at all as a must play in tournaments tonight. The Marlins are a bad offense, but they aren’t a high strikeout team against lefties and Corbin has struck out just 23% of right-handed bats. But even with that, this matchup is so much better than what the other aces are dealing with that I prefer to go Corbin’s way at least in cash games tonight. The Marlins ranks of 29th and 30th in wOBA and ISO make up for the downtick in Corbin’s numbers.