DFS Alerts
Daniel Norris has the highest aEV on the board (90.7 mph) & faces an offense that pounds LHP (17.3 HR/FB)
Daniel Norris went seven innings, striking out a season high eight Indians last time out, but still allowed six runs. The lone bright spot in his season is a 5.5 BB%. He has a below average strikeout rate 19% with a 90 Z-Contact%. His 4.69 ERA is justified by a 4.53 SIERA and even seen as optimistic by a 5.64 DRA and .340 xwOBA. He’s allowed far too much hard contact, as his 90.7 mph aEV is worst on the board (42.9% 95+ mph EV is second worst) and he faces an offense that has been very proficient against LHP this year (118 wRC+, 17.3 HR/FB), who gain a DH today. Weather effects are particularly interesting in Detroit tonight and possibly not very favorable for Norris. Weather Edge (premium subscription required) currently shows some potentially power suppressing winds, but those appear to be blowing in from right field (less of a help to Norris, who will likely be facing predominantly RHBs), while the overall hot temperatures may lead to a run scoring boost overall. This could change throughout the afternoon, so premium subscribers will want to re-check conditions before game time. For now, Washington has a 5.73 implied run line that’s tied for the best mark outside Coors tonight. RHBs have a .332 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) with 40% ground ball and hard hit rates against Norris over the last calendar year (LHBs are even better). Anthony Rendon (149 wRC+, .315 ISO), Howie Kendrick (172 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Victor Robles (143 wRC+, .247 ISO) have all hit southpaws very well over the last calendar year. Trea Turner (131 wRC+, .156 ISO) with less power. Kurt Suzuki (125 wRC+, .208 ISO) or Yan Gomes (106 wRC+, .163 ISO) would have some value behind the plate. Both are below $3K on FanDuel, but the latter is just $2.9K on DraftKings as well.
Other tagged players: Daniel Norris, Howie Kendrick, Victor Robles, Kurt Suzuki, Yan Gomes, Trea Turner
Lance Lynn has a 29.5 K% and .260 xwOBA over the last month
Lance Lynn has a 4.32 ERA through his first 16 starts for Texas, but an argument can certainly be made that he’s far exceeded everyone’s expectations. He’s struck out 25.7% of batters faced (29.5% over the last month) and has gone at least six innings in 11 straight starts. While his 8.8 HR/FB is unsustainable, his .338 BABIP is likely so as well. In fact, he’s generated an 86.8 mph aEV and 4.2% Barrels/BBE that projects a .291 xwOBA in compliance with his 19.2 K-BB%. Over the last month, that’s down to .260, 37 points better than his actual mark over that span. Tonight, Lynn gets out of Texas and receives a pretty substantial park boost in Tampa Bay. He’ll face a tough offense (106 wRC+, 25.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but the Rays do have a 14.9 K-BB% against righties as well and just played 18 innings in Minnesota on Thursday, which could play towards Lynn’s advantage. Lynn now exceeds $10K on DraftKings, but still costs a very reasonable $9K on FanDuel.
Elieser Hernandez has struck out 19 of 67 batters in three starts
The game in Miami is an interesting spot to look at for pitching tonight. While that’s normally going to be the case because it’s a great park and the home team has a terrible offense, it’s not really clear cut that the visiting pitcher is the superior option here.
Vince Velasquez has a 26.6 K%, but has allowed far too much hard contact (28.5 Hard-Soft%, 90.2 mph aEV, 13.5% Barrels/BBE, 18.3 HR/FB). He has a 4.40 ERA with an unsustainable 83.3 LOB%, thus sporting a 5.09 DRA and .339 xwOBA. However, this is an excellent spot with a massive park upgrade (Marlins 76 wRC+, 18.1 K-BB%, 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP) and he costs less than $7.5K on either site. The upside alone is worth taking a shot in GPPs.
Elsier Hernandez struck out 34% of batters through 48 AAA innings before being recalled in June. In three starts, he’s allowed three HRs (all on the road), but struck out 19 of 67 batters (28.4%) with a 15.2 SwStr%. According to Statcast, he’s managed contact quite well too. An 85.4 mph aEV (27.8% 95+ mph EV) combined with that strikeout rate projects a .259 xwOBA some 56 points better than his actual mark. The Philadelphia offense has just a 91 wRC+ this year and their power drops substantially away from their power friendly home park (11.6 HR/FB). Hernandez has some upside and costs just $6.5K on DraftKings.
Lourdes Gurriel has scorched LHP (198 wRC+, .352 ISO last calendar year)
Danny Duffy has decline in just above every way (10.2 K-BB%, 43.4 Z-O-Swing%, 4.69 ERA, 4.53 SIERA, 5.64 DRA, 89.4 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE, .362 xwOBA). His strikeout high for the season is seven, which he’s done just once, against the Tigers. Despite the Blue Jays owning just an 87 wRC+ with a 14.3 K-BB% and 12.6 HR/FB vs LHP, they are the interesting play here. In fact, only four teams outside Coors are implied for more runs (5.26). While Duffy is actually having more problems with LHBs this year (.377 wOBA), he’s traditionally been HR prone to RHBs. Lourdes Gurriel (198 wRC+, .352 ISO) has smoked LHP over the last calendar year, while Randal Grichuk (135 wRC+, .234 ISO) adds another potent bat. Vladimir Guerrero (90 wRC+, .155 ISO) has yet to show much prowess against southpaws, but costs just $3.4K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Danny Duffy Still Too Cheap on Most SItes
This is a really interesting spot. On one hand, you have a pitcher in Tommy Milone who has looked much better in 2019. On the other hand, you have a Houston lineup that is getting healthy and generally smashes against LHP. Sorry, Tommy, but I’ll have to side with the bats. When healthy, this Houston team simply obliterates lefties. On that note, what is it going to take for DK/FDRAFT to finally price up Jose Altuve? He has hits in seven straight games right now and has made a career out of hitting lefties well – outside of a small hiccup a year ago. Continue to fire him up on those sites until the price corrects.
Buy Low on a Proven Hitter
The Cardinals have been absolutely abysmal offensively in the month of June. They rank with the likes of the Orioles and the Marlins in a lot of categories, and that’s not the company they want to be keeping. I have almost zero interest in a full stack in San Diego, especially after the Cardinals got shut out by… Daniel Mengden and company the other night. However, we can look to a one-off like Paul Goldschmidt or Paul DeJong here. While both are scuffling along with the rest of the offense, they will both be owned at very low rates tonight, and we know they have power upside. Goldy has made his career on smashing lefties and is now very affordable everywhere. Hopefully he can get it rolling tonight, and this is a fine spot to buy low.
One of the Top Overall Plays on the Board
Now that they are relatively healthy again, the Nationals are playing some better baseball. They are 8-2 over their last ten games, and they are averaging 6.7 runs per game in that stretch. The Nationals have an implied team total closing in on six runs again tonight, and they have a favorable matchup in their own right against Daniel Norris. The Detroit lefty is a low strikeout pitcher with a SIERA and xFIP around 4.50, and Norris has often struggled with hard contact throughout his MLB career. He does a reasonable job at limiting hard contact against lefties, but RHBs have posted a 40% hard contact rate against Norris this season. This is an elite spot for Anthony Rendon, who might be my favorite hitter on the slate. He has always hit very well against lefties, and he owns remarkable splits against them once again in 2019 with a .434 wOBA, .339 ISO, and 1.079 OPS.
Too Cheap on FanDuel
The 25 year old has been a huge surprise for the Rays this season, showing off impeccable command on his way to a 7-3 record and a 3.00 ERA. His strikeouts are slightly below league average, but I do expect some improvement on that front as he grows into his role. The swinging strikes are reasonable at over 10%, and any pitcher can succeed with a 5% walk rate. The one caution we need to have is that Chirinos has been extraordinarily lucky with a .228 opposing BABIP this year. We can certainly expect some regression, but he remains a solid pitcher for the Rays. A matchup against the Rangers adds an increased risk/reward element here, as this is a lineup that has pop but is also prone to the strikeout, especially now that Joey Gallo is back from injury. I do have interest in Chirinos tonight, especially on FanDuel where they still have him priced in the basement at $6,300.
Friday's Top Arm
It’s nice to see that the Mets are consistent. They simply don’t get wins for Jacob deGrom, and deGrom is the poster pitcher for the “wins are completely irrelevant” crowd. He won the NL Cy Young last year despite a 10-9 record, and he sits at 4-6 this year. Rest assured that he is much better than that record would indicate. The good news is that this is not 1994 anymore, and we can use metrics to see just how good deGrom is. He had a 32% strikeout rate last year and sits at nearly 31% this year to go along with low walks and a solid overall profile. His hard contact rate is up a bit in 2019, but it’s still not at an alarming level. His 3.28 SIERA and 3.18 xFIP are rock solid. The only issue here is a difficult matchup against a Braves lineup that is potent from top to bottom, especially with the addition of Austin Riley to the mix. Still, good pitching is capable of beating good hitting, and deGrom has the talent to transcend any matchup. I’ll happily use him in any format tonight
Angels are the only offense outside Coors above 4.5 implied runs
Tanner Anderson has started three games for the A’s with a 19.1 K% and 7.7 SwStr%, 91 Z-Contact% and 48.8 Z-O-Swing%. All of those numbers are much worse than average. He does have a 59.1 GB% with an 86.1 mph aEV, but somehow 12.8% of his contact has still been labelled as a Barrel and 20% of his fly balls have left the yard. These are still small sample size things, but aside from the ground ball rate, none of it’s really very encouraging, while his 4.3 K-BB% in 54.2 AAA innings doesn’t help matters either. The Angels have a 113 wRC+, 17.4 K% and 22.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this year. This is the offense to target outside Coors tonight. At 5.32 implied runs, they’re the only offense outside Coors even above 4.5 implied runs tonight. Anderson has been hammered by LHBs for a .398 wOBA (.418 xwOBA) in his three starts with a 48.8 Hard%. Tommy La Stella (132 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Shohei Ohtani (155 wRC+, .303 ISO), Cole Kalhoun (116 wRC+, .255 ISO), Brian Goodwin (115 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Justin Bour (92 wRC+, .217 ISO) are Dodger alternatives tonight if in tonight’s lineup.
Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella, Kole Calhoun, Brian Goodwin, Justin Bour, Tanner Anderson Strasburg has been struggling, but still has great season numbers (.262 xwOBA) and an a great matchup
Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher on a four game slate with more than a year’s worth of major league experience. That alone does not make him a superior play tonight, but the presence of the Marlins on the opposing side in Miami does. He’s struggled over the last month (5.10 ERA, 25.6 K%, .311 xwOBA), but his 13.6 SwStr%, 52.9 GB% and 3.79 SIERA over that span signify those struggles may be over-stated. Four of his six HRs in the month came in a single outing. On the season, a 29.1 K%, 24 Z-O-Swing%, 7.2 Hard-Soft%, 1.90 DRA, and .262 xwOBA demonstrate his upside. He’s faced the Marlins once this season, resulting in a season high 11 strikeouts over eight shutout innings. They have a 77 wRC+ and 18 K-BB% vs RHP this year. While there are enough concerns to consider fading this spot on a larger slate, players really don’t have that option tonight considering the potential upside and the fact that tonight’s other high upside arms are at Coors and facing the contact prone A’s.
Start of TBR-MIN will be delayed due to inclement weather Thursday
The start of the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins on Thursday afternoon will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, but the Twins are currently aiming for the first pitch to be at 2:05 pm ET, even though they have not disclosed a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of pitchers like Martin Perez and Jalen Beeks not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this contest has legitimate postponement risk if the teams opt to not wait out the duration of this weather system.
As reported by: Eduardo A. Encina via Twitter Other tagged players: Jalen Beeks
Jam Them In
The salaries on the Dodgers lefties on FD/Yahoo are low enough tonight to make a fade very risky even at extreme ownership in tournaments. Peter Lambert has struck out just seven batters in his last 13 innings and was a below average strikeout pitcher in the minors. He may not be bad in real life, but there are going to be balls hit hard and in the air from this loaded Dodgers lineup and with the Coors Field factor, it’s just too good to overthink in primary lineup builds. Alex Verdugo is not quite up to the level of teammates Pederson, Bellinger and Muncy in pure power, but his elite contact has played very well and his lineup spot gives him all kinds of added upside with strong hitters all around him.
Don't Overthink It
The salaries on the Dodgers lefties on FD/Yahoo are low enough tonight to make a fade very risky even at extreme ownership in tournaments. Peter Lambert has struck out just seven batters in his last 13 innings and was a below average strikeout pitcher in the minors. He may not be bad in real life, but there are going to be balls hit hard and in the air from this loaded Dodgers lineup and with the Coors Field factor, it’s just too good to overthink in primary lineup builds. Joc Pederson leads things off with a .356 ISO on 43% fly balls and 45% hard hits. The one note of caution on Pederson is that he gets pinch hit for a fair amount, so I wouldn’t call him a must play in cash games tonight. But the upside in even a few at bats is worth this price in tournaments.
Strong Mid-Tier Pitching
On DK/FDRFT tonight, we’re choosing between paying all the way up to Stephen Strasburg along with a cheaper SP2 or middling it with Walker Buehler and Griffin Canning. We know about the risk vs reward with Buehler, so the more important decision is where you land on Canning. For me, his elite control, above average strikeouts and fly balls give him a strong enough combo of floor and ceiling to make this my preferred range for tournament pitching tonight. There is some power risk here, but we can afford to give up a few home runs at the expense of innings and strikeouts on a slate where the cheap pitching just isn’t very good.