DFS Alerts
Tight At The Top
It’s arguable who the best pitcher on tonight’s slate is, but we have a clear top five with Boyd, Corbin, Minor, Morton and Odorizzi. Among that group, Matt Boyd has the best combination of skills and a favorable matchup. His 30.1% K rate this season is just barely behind Morton for tops on the slate, but his control far exceeds Morton with just 4.9% walks. More importantly, Boyd is facing a Rangers team with the highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. Most of their dangerous power comes from the left side of the plate where Boyd has a huge 65% ground ball rate to offset it.
Taking Advantage of Opportunity
This was the day that Frankie Montas was scheduled to pitch, so Oakland needs a replacement thanks to Montas’ suspension for PED use. Mengden gets the call, but he is not a quality MLB arm. He has an ERA over five and a hefty walk rate in five appearances (three starts) this year, and he has a SIERA and xFIP near 5.00 for his major league career. He seems to be a AAAA-caliber pitcher, meaning a guy who will always have success at Triple-A but will have difficult transitioning that to the majors. Mengden has a fly ball lean, so I will look to target power against him. DeJong, Ozuna, and Goldschmidt are your top plays for a St. Louis stack tonight, and perhaps a good matchup will get them out of their June-long offensive funk.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna
Elite Sneaky Stack
If you want a sneaky stack this evening, give the Angels a peek. Tanner Roark is generally a pitcher that DFS players don’t like to pick on, but he has scuffled a bit this year, particularly against left-handed hitters, as they have posted a .374 wOBA against him in 2019. The hard contact is also up, and Roark’s solid surface numbers are largely a result of good fortune. The Angels have some solid left-handed bats now that Ohtani is healthy, with Tommy LaStella having a breakout year, and Kole Calhoun also offering some pop. Of course, Mike Trout could be used in any stack. I like the upside here.
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Tommy La Stella The Default Top Pitcher of the Night?
There’s not a lot in terms of high-end pitching to love tonight, and Corbin almost becomes the default #1 option thanks to a matchup against the feeble Marlins, who rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories this season. Corbin has not quite lived up to expectations for the Nats this year, but he is coming off a strong outing in his last start with seven innings of one-run ball against the Phillies. Perhaps that will kick start his season, and a matchup against the Marlins is a good recipe to keep that rolling. The strikeout potential is still there with a 26.6% strikeout rate and a healthy swinging strike rate, too.
Solid Value in GPP Formats
Gallen is not your typical young pitcher that is just breaking into the major leagues, as he showed remarkable command at every level through his minor league climb. He pitched very well in his MLB debut on the road in St. Louis, and while this is a similarly difficult matchup against the Nationals, I am willing to take a shot on Gallen. He has extra appeal in multi-pitcher formats, especially given the weak nature of the pitching options on tonight’s slate. Give him a look.
Heat Of The Day
Roark has really struggled with left-handed hitters this season. He has a .382 wOBA with a .186 ISO and a very low 17.8% strikeout rate against lefties. Calhoun really stands out to me at this price on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. He has a .235 ISO with a 48.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. This ballpark has really changed this season, and this is a 5pm local time start in LA, which should be good hitting weather.
Low Owned Value Play
Nick Pivetta looked good when he got called back up but has struggled in his last couple of starts. He has a .350 wOBA with a .235 ISO with a 45% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season. Smith has a .226 ISO with a .406 wOBA and a 40% hard-hit rate against righties this season. He’s really cheap on FanDuel and he’s one of my favorite value options on this slate.
Inducing Soft Contact And Groundballs
Valdez draws a really good matchup against the Pirates tonight. The Pirates rank 27th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, and they have the third lowest wRC+. Valdez pitched really well in the three games leading up to the Yankees game last time out. He goes from facing one of the best offenses in baseball to facing one of the bottom offenses. Valdez is a massive ground ball pitcher, and he’s done a really good job inducing soft contact. I like the upside in this spot, and I really like his price tag on two pitcher sites.
Talented Young Pitcher
Zac Gallen has shown a lot of promise at AAA this season. He has a 14.4% swinging strike rate with a 33.6% strikeout rate this season. He threw five good innings against the Cardinals in his first start. The projected starting lineup has a 23.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. This is a good ballpark and with limited value options, I’m willing to roll the dice on the young right-handed pitcher.
Bryan Reynolds scratched Tuesday; Jose Osuna replaces
Reynolds has been scratched from the Pittsburgh Pirates original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Houston Astros due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jose Osuna, who will now play first base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Corey Dickerson all the way up to the two-hole, respectively. However, the remainder of the Pirates lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Gerrit Cole on the road this evening.
As reported by: Alyson Footer via Twitter
If You Can Make It Work
While I am tagging both Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole today, I certainly don’t expect you to be able to play both. This is simply a matter of finding lots of builds where I need the salary savings to Cole, but if you have the money, Max Scherzer is the guy you want. From his pure strikeout upside to his high pitch counts and the ideal matchup and ballpark, there is no reason to overthink this if you can find the salary.
Zach Davies has an ERA well below estimators (81 LOB%) and a .357 xwOBA over the last month
Zach Davies is a low strikeout (15.2%) contact manager (87.2 mph aEV, 6.0% Barrels/BBE), but less so lately. He’s allowed four HRs over his last three starts and is up to a .357 xwOBA over the last month. Estimators are mostly two runs above his 3.06 ERA due to an 81 LOB% and 10.6 HR/FB. Despite trading off some their power assets, the Seattle offense has remained competent and although implied for just 4.3 runs tonight, still has something to offer daily fantasy players from the left-hand side (.347 wOBA, .341 xwOBA vs Davies last calendar year). Dan Vogelbach (170 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been a monster, but more quietly, J.P. Crawford (151 wRC+, .222 ISO) has been a pleasant surprise and Omar Narvaez (139 wRC+, .191 ISO) is a middle of the order bat at a tough position. Each of the latter two still cost below $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Omar Narvaez, J.P. Crawford, Zach Davies
Team Adds Hitter to Lineup Tonight Against Terrible Pitching Staff
Tonight could be primarily a bullpen game for the Orioles, and that could spell trouble with Baltimore having a 6.34 bullpen ERA, worst in the majors this season. The team also has to take on a Padres offense that is getting a major park upgrade for the offense, and will also be adding a designated hitter to the lineup for interleague play. I’ll be targeting the Padres power hitters in this lineup regardless of handedness, namely Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Franmil Reyes, and Hunter Renfroe.
Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes
Pitcher Should Benefit From Weak Road Offense Tonight
Coors Field is such a hitters park that it’s easy to forget how bad this Rockies offense is away from their home ballpark – but Colorado ranks last in the league in wOBA, OPS, and wRC+ in away games this season. Madison Bumgarner takes on the Rockies tonight as a strong -160 favorite, and he has some strikeout upside as well with Colorado ranking 3rd in K% on the road this season. Priced below the aces on this slate Bumgarner could put up a big score and allow for some high-priced bats in GPPs as well.
Shane Bieber offers high strikeout upside (33% last 30 days) against a low power offense (11.8 HR/FB vs RHP)
Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole are the two highest profile and most expensive pitchers on today’s board, but they are just two of five pitchers above a 30% strikeout rate tonight. Blake Snell and Robbie Ray join them, but have terrible matchups in the Twins and Dodgers. Shane Bieber (33 K%, 15.6 SwStr%) might be the most interesting of the five though. He costs more than $1.5K less than Scherzer on either site and is in a pretty favorable spot. The Royals have a 91 wRC+, 14.7 K-BB% and 11.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year. More interestingly, Bieber has some fairly well known platoon issues (LHBs .351 wOBA last calendar year), but while the Royals will sprinkle in some LHBs, Alex Gordon (106 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is probably the most dangerous bat he’ll see from that side. Bieber has a 25.7 K-BB% on the season and while his 90.7 mph aEV (10.8% Barrels/BBE) is a bit of a concern, all of his estimators join his ERA below four and the strikeouts offer quite a bit of upside against a low power offense.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon