DFS Alerts

Jakob Bauers has been ruled out

Bauers hurt himself during batting practice and will be replaced by Mike Freeman. Freeman is not typically in play as a DFS consideration, and would be an extreme risk here given he will be hitting low in the order and the game itself carries a decent amount of PPD risk.

Jon Gray has the second best strikeout rate on the board (25.4%) in a great spot

Jon Gray is a high priced pitching option ($9.8K on DK) with a 4.18 ERA, SIERA and FIP, but he’s getting out of Coors and is in a great spot tonight. Gray has struck out 25.4% of batters this season and 24.5% of batters on the road since last season. While nine of his 13 HRs have come in his nine road starts this year, the Giants have just an 8.2 HR/FB at home this year. Gray’s 89.9 mph aEV and 44.7% 95+ mph EV are both worst on the board and his .325 xwOBA on the road since last season doesn’t really absolve him of that, but he’s facing a team with an 80 wRC+ and 14.9 K-BB% vs RHP. This really is all about the spot and lack of much higher upside pitching prospects on this board. Kershaw (23.6 K%) and Greinke (22.4%) aren’t what they’ve been in tougher spots and Gray actually has the second highest strikeout rate on the board with the only pitcher higher (Lucas Giolito 30.9 K%) visiting Fenway. You don’t have to like it, but you probably do need some Jon Gray exposure tonight.

Embrace Volatility

Simply taking a look at the game log of Drew Pomeranz tells you a lot about the Giants’ lefty’s season. In his last four games, Pomeranz has scored north of 20 DK points twice and south of 0 points twice. Pom’s 7.09 ERA looks terrible and while his 4.68 SIERA isn’t necessarily good it’s certainly a lot friendlier on the eyes, as is his 23.1% strikeout rate. Most notably in Pom’s favor is context (home @ pitcher friendly Oracle) and matchup against a Rockies offense that has been below average against left-handed pitching all season long (24.9 K%; 98 wRC+) and is now also without Trevor Story. Pom has an extremely friendly price tag and is cheap enough where I’m willing to board the roller-coaster knowing that things could either go great, or horribly wrong.

Conditions and struggling pitching (Jon Lester 6.03 FIP last 30 days) could turn Wrigley into Coors tonight

While Fenway is the most positive run environment on the board tonight with no consideration of outside factors, Wrigley may be playing the part of Coors tonight with winds blowing out to RF at around 15 mph. The bump given to power and overall run scoring by Weather Edge (premium tool) is pretty tremendous tonight.
Julio Teheran is down to a 14.7 K% over the last month, though he’s allowed just one HR over his last nine starts. While Teheran has seemingly solved his issue with LHBs over the last calendar year (.297 wOBA) that may be an illusion as xwOBA credits them with a 43 point bump over that period, which makes sense with a 38.8 Hard% and 34.8 GB%. Teheran’s 11.5 BB% does not inspire confidence either. The obvious plays here are Kyle Schwarber (106 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Anthony Rizzo (158 wRC+, .255 ISO) with Jason Heyward (100 wRC+, .148 ISO) and Carlos Gonzalez (92 wRC+, .167 ISO) showing league average tendencies that will receive a weather boost tonight. The latter duo each cost $2.5K or less on FanDuel.
For the home team, Jon Lester doesn’t issue free passes (5.5%) and still strikes out batters at a league average rate (22.7%), but that may be an illusion (8.3 SwSt%). His 4.13 ERA has nearly caught up with estimators, none of which are lower, due to a 6.44 ERA and 6.03 FIP over the last month. An 88.9 mph aEV and 10.3% Barrels/BBE make matters even worse. His .349 xwOBA is fourth worst on the board tonight and he’ll have to contend with an Atlanta offense with a 108 wRC+, 20.8 K% and 17 HR/FB vs LHP this year. The good news is that the wind is blowing out to right field instead of left. The bad is that LHBs (.406 wOBA, .381 xwOBA) have hit him even harder than RHBs (.331 wOBA, .334 xwOBA) over the last 12 months. Freddie Freeman (119 wRC+, .206 ISO) has hit same-handed pitching well over that span and tops the team with a 61.1 Hard% over the last week (10 PA min.). A lineup that leans predominantly right-handed here is certainly useful too with both offense implied for well over five runs tonight.

Power Is King

Somewhat surprisingly it’s not the Chicago Cubs (6.2) with the highest implied run total of the slate but rather the New York Yankees (6.9). The Yankees have seen the opening line move in their favor all day as they currently sit as -250 favorites – the largest favorite on the slate by a wide margin. A healthy Yankees squad will host Aaron Sanchez and a Blue Jays bullpen that has struggled to keep the ball in the yard (1.59 HR/9) all season long. Sanchez doesn’t miss bats which bodes well for a whiff-heavy Yankees lineup. The Blue Jays righty is the owner of the second lowest strikeout rate (17.9%) on the slate only topping Brad Keller (16.1%).

As long as it’s fully healthy, the Yankees’ lineup is the most powerful lineup in the Majors. Eight-of-nine hitters in New York’s projected lineup own ISO’s north of .200 against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons, with five hitters (Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Didi Gregorius) owning ISO’s of .237 or higher. Power is king when stacking and New York has plenty of it.

Lefty Power

Ownership is going to be so heavily concentrated on Wrigley, and then in New York, that essentially any other stack is going to come in extremely low owned. With that in mind, you don’t HAVE to do something like target one of the best pitchers on the slate in Zack Greinke but stacking one of the top offenses in baseball at low ownership can never really be wrong.

The Dodgers lead the league with a 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and are second with a .213 ISO. All of Joc Pederson (.313 ISO), Cody Bellinger (.267 ISO), and Max Muncy (.296 ISO) have shown ridiculous power against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons and are three of the top power threats on the slate regardless of matchup. Much was made of Greinke allowing a lot of hard contact (38.9%) to left-handed hitters last season and while he’s been better in that area this season (30.6%) his soft contact numbers are very similar (14.6% vs 15.7%). In other words, Greinke is still giving up solid contact to left-handed hitters despite his hard contact numbers looking better this season.

If you’re not sold on full out stacking the Dodgers, simply using Los Angeles lefty hitters as fillers should help differentiate your more chalky Wrigley/Yankee stacks.

Eduardo Rodriguez has been the top contact manager on the board (86.2 mph aEV, 29.1% 95+ mph, 7.3 Hard-Soft%)

Eduardo Rodriguez has an 18.4 K-BB% and beyond that, he has been the top contact manager on the board (86.2 mph aEV, 29.1% 95+ mph, 7.3 Hard-Soft% all top the slate). Yet his 4.61 ERA is still well above his SIERA, xFIP and FIP all below four (4.61 DRA though) due to a .338 BABIP. His ERA is just 3.45 over the last month and more in line with estimators. He has allowed nine HRs over his last six starts with his Hard-Soft rate all the way up to 11.7% over that span, which would still be best on the board. While the White Sox are a league average offense vs LHP by wRC+ (98), peripherals paint them in a much poorer light (17.1 K-BB%, 10.6 HR/FB, 9.3 Hard-Soft%). While Fenway is the most positive run environment on the board tonight, ERod has a 20.6 K-BB%, 8.5 HR/FB and the same 7.3 Hard-Soft% at home since the start of last year. Eduardo Rodriguez is certainly a top five arm on this slate and may be the best arm available tonight for less than $9K.

Zach Eflin is doing unsustainable things (82.2 LOB%), still struggles with LHBs (.351 wOBA last 12 months)

Zach Eflin may be the Phillies’ most consistent pitcher this year, but he may not be doing things in a very sustainable way or least not a way that coincides with daily fantasy upside. Even his strikeout rate boost to 25.7% over the last month comes with just a 7.9 SwStr%, making his 3.25 K/SwStr the highest on the board over that span. His 2.83 ERA this season is due to a .271 BABIP (27 points below what the Philadelphia defense allows), 82.2 LOB% and 10.9 HR/FB. His SIERA, xFIP and FIP each reach four. While his 3.79 DRA and .293 xwOBA are a bit more impressive, they’re still both well behind his current ERA as well. His 87.7 mph aEV and 35.3% 95+ mph EV are more average than strong. If we call him a league average pitcher here in a warm and humid, power friendly environment, there may be some room for Mets’ bats, who own a 126 wRC+, 9.7 K-BB% and 23.6 HR/FB over the last week, especially considering Eflin still has a platoon issue (LHBs .351 wOBA, .329 xwOBA, 36.3 Hard%, 39.7 GB% over the last 12 months). Robinson Cano (112 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a great value play here ($3.2K DK), while Jeff McNeil (140 wRC+, .145 ISO) and Michael Conforto (137 wRC+, .248 ISO) could be utilized in player pools as well. Another consideration might be Dominic Smith (111 wRC+, .191 ISO), who costs just $2.2K on FanDuel and is now outfield eligible.

Same Conditions On Both Sides

The Cubs have the better matchup from a splits perspective against Julio Teheran, but the Braves have all kinds of power and will benefit from the same wind blowing out at Wrigley Field tonight. Jon Lester is a decent pitcher in terms of strikeouts and walks, but he’s shown no ability to keep the ball on the ground or limit hard contact which has led to a .215 ISO and 12 HR to right-handed batters. Ronald Acuna leads off with a huge 55% hard hit rate against lefties this season, giving him a .297 ISO and .436 wOBA. Like the Cubs, he would be a play in this matchup even under neutral hitting conditions.

C.C. Sabathia is just four HRs from his 2018 total in 90 fewer innings

C.C. Sabathia has a 24.7 K% and 13 SwStr% over the last month, great for his daily fantasy prospects, but just snapped a string of four straight starts with at least three runs allowed in his last start. His 15 HRs in 63 innings is already just four fewer than his total last year in 90 more innings. Everyone’s HR rate is going up this year, but his 19.2 HR/FB is nearly double his career rate (10.5) and coincides with the lowest ground ball rate of his career (39.5%) and his highest hard hit rate (43.9%) since 2013. In fact, it’s the first time he’s been above even 30% since that year. Interestingly, that hard contact is not showing up in his line drive rate (18.4%) and he still has a low 86.8 mph aEV (second best on the board), but a high rate of Barrels/BBE (8.6%). So he’s still generating a lot of weak contact, but also lots of hard hit fly balls. While his league average 4.14 ERA coincides with a league average .317 xwOBA, the bad news is that his 81.8 LOB% would be a career high too. His 4.78 SIERA, 5.65 FIP and 7.10 DRA tell a dangerous story. While the Blue Jays have an 84 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% and 12.3 HR/FB vs LHP, those numbers are a bit deceiving. There is some right-handed power in that lineup right now, including Lourdes Gurriel (180 wRC+, .313 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Randal Grichuk (138 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (85 wRC+, .202 ISO). That’s not even counting Vladmir Guerrero Jr. (83 wRC+, .163 ISO), who hasn’t even hit LHP yet. At 3.89 implied runs, the Jays are fifth from the bottom of the board tonight. This Toronto lineup likely offers a chance to grab some high upside contrarian bats in a strong spot tonight.

Too Cheap Under Any Conditions

The Cubs lefties would be near the top of the list today even in neutral hitting conditions against Julio Teheran. Add in the Wrigley Field wind blowing out and this becomes a Don’t Overthink It spot in cash games and a scary fade in tournaments even at high ownership. Teheran has long struggled with lefties and this season has a 19.9% K rate with high 13.6% BB while allowing 42% hard hits with no ability to keep the ball on the ground. Kyle Schwarber is too cheap across the industry for his mix of power and patience leading off for a high upside offense.

A Top Play Under Any Conditions

The Cubs lefties would be near the top of the list today even in neutral hitting conditions against Julio Teheran. Add in the Wrigley Field wind blowing out and this becomes a Don’t Overthink It spot in cash games and a scary fade in tournaments even at high ownership. Teheran has long struggled with lefties and this season has a 19.9% K rate with high 13.6% BB while allowing 42% hard hits with no ability to keep the ball on the ground. Anthony Rizzo has patience, contact and hard hit ability that makes him a top play in all formats.

Solid Skills, Solid Matchup, Solid Price = Solid

The top aces tonight are either a little too expensive or in matchups that leave them short of must play status. The best mix of salary, skills and matchups falls to Eduardo Rodriguez against the White Sox. The 25.2% K rate of Rodriguez is the 3rd highest mark on the slate and he has improved his control down to 6.8% walks while continuing to limit hard contact. The lack of patience in the White Sox lineup should help his pitch count as he aims for a third straight 7-inning performance.

Hard Contact Plus Flyballs

Wind is going to be a major factor in the Cubs game tonight, and Schwarber really stands out on at this price point. Teheran has a .327 wOBA with a .168 ISO and a 17.7% strikeout rate against lefties this season. What stands out to me is his 43% fly ball rate with his 40% hard-hit rate against lefties. Schwarber has a 38.3% fly ball rate with a .263 ISO and a 42% hard-hit rate against righties this season. I love the hard contact plus the fly balls in this spot, and I think there is a ton of upside if Schwarber is able to make contact.

24 Home Runs In 67 Games

Brad Keller has done a great job at limiting power to left-handed hitters this season. He has a .098 ISO with a 12.2% hard to soft contact ratio against lefties. He still doesn’t have a big strikeout pitch against lefties, and only has a 17% strikeout rate against lefties. Bradley has a 32% strikeout rate in AAA, but he has massive power. He has 24 home runs in 67 games this season, plus a .346 ISO. With a low strikeout pitcher and Bradley minimum salary on FanDuel, I’m willing to take a chance on him at this price point.