DFS Alerts
Indians have a team 130 wRC+ over the last week
Glenn Sparkman has a 12.7 K% with the worst Z-O-Swing% on the board (46.9%). Along with this, he carries an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph. As such, his .364 xwOBA is behind only Clayton Richard today, among pitchers who have made more than one start. The Cleveland lineup is suddenly smoking (130 team wRC+ last seven days) and will probably be well represented tonight at 5.83 runs, but still should have some value with reasonable price tags in the middle of the order. Jason Kipnis (120 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (100 wRC+, .196 ISO) are two of the hotter bats in the lineup, both above a 160 wRC+ over the last week. More expensively, Francisco Lindor (112 wRC+, .226 ISO), Oscar Mercado (141 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Carlos Santana (115 wRC+, .204 ISO) are projected to appear in the top third of the order tonight. All will bat from the left side against Sparkman, who has allowed a .342 wOBA, .361 xwOBA, 43.1 Hard%, and 39 GB% against LHBs over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Glenn Sparkman, Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor
Jordan Zimmerman's velocity was down, 6.7 SwStr% in return from IL
Jordan Zimmermann returned from nearly a two month layoff to allow three runs in four innings against the Pirates, striking out four of 19 batters. His velocity was down and he had just a 6.7 SwStr%. His 91.2 Z-Contact% on the season is second worst on the board to go along with his 89.7 mph aEV. While Texas bats project well here (5.14 implied runs), they could still get lost in the shuffle with a full one-third of the board (10 teams) at 4.9 runs or higher tonight. LHBs have a particular advantage on a potentially still compromised pitcher (.367 wOBA, .350 xwOBA last 12 months). It doesn’t hurt this offense either that Joey Gallo (141 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is expected back tonight. Shin-soo Choo (137 wRC+, .216 ISO), Danny Santana (134 wRC+, .248 ISO), Nomar Mazara (103 wRC+, .188 ISO), Rougned Odor (94 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Ronald Guzman (113 wRC+, .228 ISO) are all dangerous hitters with power here.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Shin-soo Choo, Danny Santana, Ronald Guzman, Jordan Zimmermann, Nomar Mazara Second Time's A Charm
The Monday night Wrigley wind game was a bit of a disappointment, although the Cubs still scored 8 runs. Max Fried is a decent pitcher, but his only plus skill to righties is a 54% ground ball rate. Even with that, Fried has allowed a .175 ISO with below average 20.8% strikeouts and 38% hard hits. Both Javier Baez and Kris Bryant have ISO’s above .400 against lefties this season and above .300 since the start of 2018. More importantly, they are both hitting fly balls over 44% of the time and if they can get the ball up into this wind tonight, there is plenty of upside here at a reasonable cost, especially on FD/Yahoo.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant
Load Up These Righties
If there is one spot I’ll go out of my way to get in on tonight, it’s the Yankees right-handed power bats at home against Clayton Richard. A moderate 50% ground ball rate is just not nearly enough to get through this Yankees lineup, especially with every other skill being a clear negative for Richard. He has struck out just 11.4% of righties while allowing a .293 ISO on 44% hard hits. I would love to get to Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, but on FD, we’ve got more meaningful savings with Gleyber Torres and Luke Voit. They are both fly ball hitters at over 40% against lefties, and with Voit’s better lineup spot, he’ll be my first option in cash games.
Load Up The Power Here
If there is one spot I’ll go out of my way to get in on tonight, it’s the Yankees right-handed power bats at home against Clayton Richard. A moderate 50% ground ball rate is just not nearly enough to get through this Yankees lineup, especially with every other skill being a clear negative for Richard. He has struck out just 11.4% of righties while allowing a .293 ISO on 44% hard hits. The outfield duo of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are still priced down a bit on DK/FDRFT after their returns from the DL and the long term numbers on Stanton against lefties would make him a top play in all formats. Going back to 2018, he has posted a .307 ISO and .411 wOBA on 54% hard hits against lefties.
Mis-Pricing According To Splits
The clear top pitchers tonight are Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole, followed by Shane Bieber. Those three are all expensive based on their 30%+ strikeout rates and low walks. Jack Flaherty finds himself in an entirely different pricing tier at just a fraction of the cost, but when we break the splits down, he is far closer to that trio of aces against right-handed batters. We’re looking at 31.8% K, 7.3% BB and a 3.07 xFIP to righties and he faces an Oakland team that loses it’s DH and will likely only have a couple of lefties in the lineup. There is ace upside at a steep discount here.
Play One Of These Aces
Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole are both in the top three of all pitchers in baseball in most meaningful stats this season including K%, K-BB%, SIERA and plain old DFS points scored. The matchup is better for Scherzer against a right-handed Marlins team, but the salary difference is pretty meaningful on this slate. I would love to be able to get up to Scherzer, but if it doesn’t quite work, I’m completely happy starting my cash game lineups with Cole and his 38.2% strikeout rate.
Logan Allen threw seven shutout innings (5 Ks) in debut and is in a great spot tonight
Logan Allen makes his second start for the Padres in Baltimore tonight. The 22 year-old lefty is a decently regarded prospect (50 FV grade, #111 ranked in MLB via Fangraphs), which, of course, only places him seventh in the San Diego organization. His strikeout rate has resided in the mid-20s in the upper minors with average control and fluctuating ground ball rates around average. He struck out five of 24 Brewers without allowing a run in seven innings in an impressive debut against Milwaukee at home. Conditions may downgrade in Baltimore tonight, but it’s certainly a more favorable matchup (though the Brewers do strike out a lot). The Orioles have an 18.7 K-BB% and 9.7 Hard-Soft% vs LHP. It’s the Orioles, players were probably considering any reasonably priced pitcher against them (Allen is $8.5K or less on either site), but it’s probably more comforting to know they are getting a potentially decent one with some upside tonight.
Clayton Richard has a 93.4 mph aEV (55.8% 95+ mph EV) and RHBs are above a .400 wOBA last calendar year
The game at Yankee Stadium between the Yankees and Blue Jays may not currently have a total due to the uncertain pitching plans of the home team, but it wouldn’t be a bad guess to suggest the Yankees might be the top offense on the board, well above six runs, once their total is posted. A few words, or numbers, concerning Clayton Richard, starter for the Blue Jays tonight. He has a -0.8 K-BB% and despite a 55.8 GB%, has allowed a HR in five straight starts. His 95.4 Z-Contact% is worst on the board by more than four points. Exactly one quarter of the fly balls he’s allowed have left the yard. Sustainable? Maybe not, but deserved? He owns a board worst 93.4 mph aEV and 55.8% 95+ mph EV (no other pitcher today is above 49%). The only thing keeping his Barrels/BBE in single digits (9.3%) is that ground ball rate. Over the last calendar year, RHBs own a .402 wOBA, .407 xwOBA, 44.7 Hard% and 50 GB% against him. The Yankees could legitimately post a lineup with six to seven All-Star caliber RH bats. Giancarlo Stanton (120 wRC+, .179 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) could even be considered one of the “weak spots”. Edwin Encarnacion (130 wRC+, .244 ISO), Luke Voit (155 wRC+, .297 ISO), Gleyber Torres (106 wRC+, .268 ISO), Gary Sanchez (134 wRC+, .329 ISO) and Aaron Judge (211 wRC+, .300 ISO) should all put fear into the minds of southpaws. It may be obvious, but it’s hard to imagine the Yankees allowing Richard to get very deep into this effort.
Other tagged players: Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez, Clayton Richard, Luke Voit LHBs have blasted Jake Arrieta over the last 12 months (.384 wOBA, .391 xwOBA)
In three of his last four starts, Jake Arrieta has struck out exactly three, while allowing a total of six HRs. In the other, he struck out five without a HR, but walked four. He’s sitting on just a 9.2 K-BB% and 20 HR/FB this season now. He does still keep the ball on the ground half the time (51.5%), but the lack of strikeouts still means enough air contact is made to do damage. Even a 4.12 ERA understates the struggle this year with all of his estimators at least a bit higher and a .341 xwOBA. LHBs have blasted Arrieta over the last calendar year for a .384 wOBA and .391 xwOBA and just a 42.3 GB%. The top half of the Mets’ order, which should include Jeff McNeil (139 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Robinson Cano (108 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Michael Conforto (140 wRC+, .257 ISO), all make strong plays here and Pete Alonso (149 wRC+, .313 ISO) has shown the ability to destroy RHP. Dominic Smith (115 wRC+, .210 ISO) may be another bat of interest if available. The Mets are near the middle of tonight’s board at 4.64 implied runs and shouldn’t be too popular. The Phillies (5.86) are going to be the higher owned offense in this game, going against Walter Lockett, a low strikeout, ground ball pitcher, in a similar vein to Arrieta.
Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, Jake Arrieta Punt Play With Power
If you’re looking for a full-on punt tonight, Kyle Garlick is really close to minimum. Robbie Ray has really good strikeout stuff, but he gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters. The roof is going to be open in Arizona, and we have an extreme hitter’s umpire behind the plate. This certainly helps the hitters in this game. Garlick has 12 home runs in 43 games at AAA and two home runs in 16 at bats in the Majors. There is always risk of him being pinch hit for, but at this price point, I’m willing to take that chance.
A Lot Of Power Against Both Righties And Lefties
I like the Padres a lot tonight, and they’re really underpriced on FanDuel. Yacabonis is going to open, with Rogers to follow, which could also lead to a lot of this Baltimore bullpen. Reyes has a .299 ISO with a 52.2% hard-hit rate and a 92.5 average exit velocity against right-handed hitters. He also has a .231 ISO with a 40% hard-hit rate and a 93.2 average exit velocity against left-handed pitchers. There is a lot of upside for Reyes in this spot, and a lot of upside for this offense tonight.
Great Value On FanDuel
It’s been an up and down season for Bassitt, but he draws a really good matchup against the Cardinals tonight. This price on FanDuel makes him one of the best value options on the slate. He’s not a safe option, but he has some really good upside here. With at least five right-handed hitters projected in this lineup, Bassitt profiles well here. He has a .275 wOBA with a .125 ISO against right-handed hitters this season. He also has a 54% ground ball rate with a 9.2% soft contact rate and a 21.3% strikeout rate. He’s really struggled against lefties, but these three lefties have struggled this season.
Watch For The Starting Lineup
Flaherty is really good against right-handed hitters and faces a right-handed heavy offense tonight. Oakland is losing the DH with this interleague game, which could possibly take a left-handed bat out of the lineup. The projected starting lineup has six right-handed hitters. Flaherty has a .278 wOBA with a .156 ISO and a 31.8% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. Flaherty has done a great job at inducing soft contact against righties, so if we get a right-handed heavy lineup, he’s going to be one of my highest owned pitchers at this price.
Ildemaro Vargas has been ruled out
With Vargas scratched, Locastro will replace him and bat 8th, and is not a DFS consideration.
As reported by: Arizona Diamondbacks