DFS Alerts
Strong Against Righties
Rodriguez has a .316 wOBA with a .131 ISO and a 6.8% hard to soft contact ratio against right-handed hitters this season. He also has a 24.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. The projected starting lineup has eight right-handed hitters, and they have a .147 ISO with a .349 wOBA against left-handed pitching. They don’t walk a lot, and there is five guys with strikeout rates over 20% against lefties.
Kikuchi has highest 30-day SIERA (6.11) of all starters today
If you’re playing the late afternoon slate, it might be wise to look at stacking against Yusei Kikuchi, who has really struggled. Over the past 30 days, Kikuchi has posted a 6.11 SIERA, 6.49 xFIP, 10.35 ERA, 0.9% K-BB and 42.7% hard contact rate. He’s allowed a .456 xwOBA (!!) and 89.2 MPH aEV over that time frame. The Orioles don’t have a good offense, but they are in a great spot here and will have plenty of affordable bats in their lineup for this matchup. Pedro Severino (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Trey Mancini (.402) and Renato Nunez (.346) have all mashed LHP this year; Mancini is $4.7k on Draftkings but Severino and Nunez can be had under $4k. Hanser Alberto (.287) will leadoff, and Jonathan Villar (.249) is also a nice play given the stolen base potential. Keon Broxton is also in play with a career 103 wRC+ vs. LHP and a price of just $2.9k on Draftkings. The Mariners bullpen as a whole has also struggled with a 7th worst 4.53 SIERA over the past 30 days. The Orioles have a 4.03 implied total vs. Kikuchi and the Mariners Sunday afternoon.
Other tagged players: Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez, Keon Broxton, Jonathan Villar, Hanser Alberto, Yusei Kikuchi
Brewers in great spot at home vs. Desclafani
Anthony Desclafani’s numbers don’t appear terrible on the surface; he has a 4.22 EA, 4.55 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA with a 15.3% K-BB and 10.2% SwStr. He does however have a 43.3% hard contact rate allowed, 41.1% FB rate, and a .328 xwOBA with an 88.7 MPH aEV. Over the past 30 days, Desclafani has struggled a bit with a 4.90 SIERA and 9.3% K-BB. Desclafani is much more vulnerable against left handed bats, as he has allowed just a .268 xwOBA vs. lefties compared to an ugly .368 xwOBA to righties since 2017. The Brewers will attack him with 6 LHB in the order that are all in play today: Christian Yelich (.442 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Mike Moustakas (.367), Yasmani Grandal (.348), Ben Gamel (.313), Eric Thames (.312) and Travis Shaw (.311). Ryan Braun (.340) and Orlando Arcia (.278) are righties but also in play. Grandal is especially intriguing given that he will leadoff this afternoon. Shaw has just a $2.7k price on Draftkings due to his slow start to the year and is a great value. Mike Moustakas has been the Brewers hottest hitter with a .454 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Christian Yelich at .436. The Brewers have a 5.25 implied line vs. Desclafani and the Reds this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Ben Gamel, Ryan Braun, Orlando Arcia, Yasmani Grandal Michael Pineda has 3.83 xFIP and 17.4% K-BB over past 30 days
It was a rough start to the season for Pineda, who posted a 4.99 xFIP and 1.48 WHIP through April as he shook off rust from not pitching in the MLB since 2017. Over the past 30 days though, Pineda has turned it around with a respectable 3.18 ERA, 3.83 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA with a 21% K rate and just a 3.5% BB rate. Even more impressively, Pineda has posted just a .277 xwOBA allowed over that time frame with an 86.5 MPH aEV. Pineda gets a nice matchup today versus the Royals who have just a 91 wRC+ and 22.4% K rate on the year vs. right-handed pitching. They will have just 3 hitters in the lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .320 vs. RHP so far this year. The Royals’ bats have really struggled of late as they also have a 2nd worst 76 wRC+ over the past 30 days. On a slate that is pretty dry at SP, Pineda is suddenly a very intriguing play, especially at a very affordable $6.7k on Draftkings and $6.7k as well on Fanduel. The Royals have a 4.57 implied line vs. Pineda and the Twins in pitcher friendly Kauffman stadium, which feels a bit high.
Rangers bats in another good spot today at home vs. Nova
The Rangers will face Ivan Nova this afternoon in the heat at Globe Life Park and have a juicy 6.16 implied total. Nova continues to hang onto a rotation spot despite been terrible this year with a 6.01 ERA / 4.73 xFIP / 5.04 SIERA with an 8 % K-BB and 8.2% SwStr. His Statcast numbers are just as bad as he has a .355 xwOBA allowed, 88.4 MPH aEV and 7.4 % barrel rate. Nova is slightly more vulnerable vs. lefties; he has a .356 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB since 2018 compared to a .329 mark vs. RHB. The Rangers have just 2 right-handed bats in their projected lineup. Willie Calhoun (.460 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Shin-Soo Choo (.399), Nomar Mazara (.371), Ronald Guzman (.367) and Danny Santana (.354) are all great lefty options that mash RHP. Also in play are Elvis Andrus (.303), Rougned Odor (.284) and Asdrubal Cabrera (.276). Mazara cranked 2 homers yesterday and has been their hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .392 xwOBA. Mazara and Calhoun are both great values on Draftings at just $4.4k each. Cabrera, Odor and Guzman are all $4k or less. Rangers bats will likely see decent ownership but they are in a great spot here and arguably underpriced given the matchup.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor, Danny Santana, Willie Calhoun, Ronald Guzman Padres lineup has a good mix of value and upside vs. Brault
For his career, Steven Brault has a 4.62 ERA, 5.13 xFIP and 4.99 SIERA with a 6.5% K-BB and 9.5% SwStr. He also has a career .348 xwOBA allowed with an 87.5 aEV, but does do a good job preventing barreled balls with just a 5.5% barrel rate. This includes innings pitched as both a starter and as a reliever, as he has appeared in 76 games and started only 22 of them. As a starter, Brault has a 4.37 ERA, 5.25 xFIP and 6.5% K-BB with a 1.2 HR/9. The Padres have a healthy 5.10 implied total for this matchup and have some intriguing bats for this matchup, some of them being great values across the industry. Manny Machado (.454 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Hunter Renfroe (.422), Fernando Tatis Jr. (.411), Franmil Reyes (.353), Manuel Margot (.315) and Eric Hosmer (.294) are all in play today vs. Brault. Franmil Reyes is just $4k and projects to bat in the top 5 of the order. Manny Machado has finally started to heat up with a .412 xwOBA over the past 14 days, but carries just a $4.7k price on Draftkings due to struggles earlier in the year. Hosmer projects to bat 2nd and is available for $4.2k. On Fanduel, all of these guys can be had for $3.8k or less, with Renfroe coming in as a great value there with a $3.1k price.
Other tagged players: Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Steven Brault, Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Power Lefty Bat
Jay Bruce is someone that I really like in tournaments against Jordan Yamamoto. Yamamoto has looked pretty good in his first two starts, giving up only 5 hits with no earned runs. I don’t see this continuing; it is a small sample size, but he is giving up a 45% fly ball rate and a 63% hard hit rate to left handed hitters. Bruce has a .325 ISO, 57% fly ball rate, and a 39% hard hit rate against right handed pitching. He will be one of my top plays of the day in tournaments.
Major K Upside
Brandon Woodruff has a ton of upside, especially on DraftKings at his $7,900 price tag. Woodruff this season has a strikeout rate of 28.4% with a swinging strike rate of 11.2%. Woodruff’s numbers are much better to right handed bats, and the Reds are projected to have 7 righties in the lineup. The Reds are 9th in strikeouts to right handed pitching at 24.3% this season. I think Woodruff has that upside that you look for in tournaments.
Favorite Stack
The Milwaukee Brewers are in a great spot today against Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani has been decent this season, but one thing he has really struggled with is power lefties. This year he is giving up a .292 ISO, .416 wOBA, 47% fly ball rate, and a 50% hard hit rate to left handed hitters. Then we have a Brewers team with 4 lefties with a .241 ISO or higher in a great ball park for hitters. I will be targeting Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, Grandal in my stack.
Favorite Stack
The Milwaukee Brewers are in a great spot today against Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani has been decent this season, but one thing he has really struggled with is power lefties. This year he is giving up a .292 ISO, .416 wOBA, 47% fly ball rate, and a 50% hard hit rate to left handed hitters. Then we have a Brewers team with 4 lefties with a .241 ISO or higher in a great ball park for hitters. I will be targeting Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, Grandal in my stack.
Favorite Stack
The Milwaukee Brewers are in a great spot today against Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani has been decent this season, but one thing he has really struggled with is power lefties. This year he is giving up a .292 ISO, .416 wOBA, 47% fly ball rate, and a 50% hard hit rate to left handed hitters. Then we have a Brewers team with 4 lefties with a .241 ISO or higher in a great ball park for hitters. I will be targeting Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, Grandal in my stack.
Favorite Stack
The Milwaukee Brewers are in a great spot today against Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani has been decent this season, but one thing he has really struggled with is power lefties. This year he is giving up a .292 ISO, .416 wOBA, 47% fly ball rate, and a 50% hard hit rate to left handed hitters. Then we have a Brewers team with 4 lefties with a .241 ISO or higher in a great ball park for hitters. I will be targeting Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, Grandal in my stack.
Contrarian One Off
Pete Alonso has been on fire with his bat this season. He gets a tough matchup against the lefty Cole Hamels who is one of the top priced pitchers on the slate. Alonso against left handed pitching this year has a .449 ISO, .461 wOBA, and a 59% hard hit rate. Alonso is second in the majors in home runs with 26, and we should get him at a super low ownership today because of the matchup, so I really like him for GPPs.
Woodruff is a good option on main slate that is lacking SP options
We can’t get too picky with who we play at SP today because there really just isn’t much to choose from. Woodruff is a good option; has been solid this year with a 4.02 ERA / 3.55 xFIP / 3.66 SIERA with a 28.4% K rate and just a 6.7% BB rate with an 11.2% SwStr. He’s also allowed just a .294 xwOBA, 5.2% barrel rate and 86.2 MPH aEV. Woodruff will face the Reds at home this afternoon, who have a have a below average 84 wRC+ and 24.3% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Reds will also come into this game with a 25th ranked .295 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Despite the high K rate and decent run prevention, Woodruff continues to be underpriced at just $7.9k on Draftkings. He’s less of a value on Fanduel at $9.2k but still very much in play even in a tough environment in Miller Park. The Reds currently have a 3.58 implied line vs. Woodruff and the Brewers today.
A Fine High End Bat
On sites where the CHW/TEX game is included on the main slate, we have to take some interest given the 11 1/2 Vegas total. I’ll opt for Shin-Soo Choo as my core option given his leadoff role and potential for five at-bats against Ivan Nova, who has struggled against LHBs for several seasons now. That includes a relatively ugly overall profile and a .390 wOBA allowed to lefties so far in 2019. The LH-heavy Texas lineup has immense potential in this spot.
