DFS Alerts
Braves bats in a great spot vs. projected long-reliever Irvin
The Braves will face an opener (Vince Velasquez) and then project to face Cole Irvin in long-relief Sunday. Irvin has a 5.48 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, 4.66 SIERA, 13.2 K-BB%, 47% hard contact rate, just a 30% GB rate and a 10.2% SwStr over 21 innings in 2019. Per Statcast, Irvin has a .347 xwOBA allowed and 7.6% barrel rate with an 85.4 aEV. The Braves have destroyed left-handed pitching on the year and have a lineup full of options this afternoon. Austin Riley (.579 xwOBA vs. LHP this year, 26 PA), Ronald Acuna Jr. (.441), Freddie Freeman (.406), Ozzie Albies (.401), Dansby Swanson (.397) and Josh Donaldson (.354) are all good options. Donaldson seems like the best value, batting 4th at just $4k on Draftkings with a history of success vs. LHP (158 career wRC+ vs. LHP). Albies has been the hottest Braves hitter over the last 2 weeks with a .451 xwOBA, followed by Freddie Freeman with a .449 xwOBA. The Braves have a healthy 5.92 implied total at home vs. the Phillies Sunday.
Other tagged players: Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
Rockies have an implied total over 7 this afternoon vs. Margevicius in Coors
Margevicius is another pitcher (like Eric Lauer yesterday) that just isn’t cut out for Coors given the tiny 16.2% K rate and 9.6% SwStr. Overall, Margevicius has a 5.02 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 5.03 SIERA, 9.2% K-BB and 37.8% hard contact. He’s also allowed a .346 xwOBA on the year with a 7.6% barrel rate and 87.1 MPH aEV. Charlie Blackmon (.366 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Nolan Arenado (.358), Ian Desmond (.418), David Dahl (.412), Trevor Story (.321), Ryan McMahon (.335), Chris Iannetta (.321) and Mark Reynolds (.279) are all the projected batters in the Rockies lineup this afternoon and they are all in play given the matchup in Coors. Iannetta has the highest xwOBA over the past 14 days with a .453 mark, followed by Charlie Blackmon (.449) and David Dahl (.377). The Rockies currently have a 7.14 implied total versus Margevicius and the Padres today.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, David Dahl, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Chris Iannetta Sonny Gray is a solid SP option at home vs. TEX
On a slate with very few safe options at SP, you could make the argument that Sonny Gray is the safest option on the board today. Gray has quietly been a very solid pitcher so far in 2019 with a 3.65 ERA, 3.55 xFIP, 3.98 SIERA, 56.6% GB rate (!), 25.7% K rate and 9.4% BB rate. His Statcast stats are even more impressive as he has just a .276 xwOBA allowed with just a 4.5% barrel rate and 86.7 MPH aEV. The Rangers have been above average with a 105 wRC+ and 24.6% K rate vs. RHP this year, though they have just a 93 wRC+ vs. RHP since June 1st when Joey Gallo went down. Gray will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly ump calling balls and strikes in Gabe Morales. Despite the success so far in 2019, Gray’s price has been slow to catch up and he is available for just $7.5k on Fanduel and $8.6k on Draftkings. The Rangers have a 3.82 implied total vs. Gray and the Reds Sunday.
Chris Archer in a great spot in Miami this afternoon
It’s tough to stomach slotting Chris Archer into a lineup these days as he seemingly gets blown up every start. Archer does have a 5.73 ERA, but has a more respectable 4.81 xFIP, 4.84 SIERA, 23% K rate and 12.2% SwStr. SP is very thin on this slate and Archer likely won’t see as good of a matchup all year as this one, in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park facing a terrible Marlins offense. The Marlins have just a 29th ranked 76 wRC+ and 24.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They are also dead last in home runs vs. RHP by a large margin with just 36 homers across 1815 PA (2% HR rate), which is very fortunate for Archer given that he has let up ridiculous 2.41 HR/9 so far in 2019. Archer still strikes out a decent amount of batters, giving him upside at his price of $8.4k on Draftkings and $7.9k on Fanduel. As long as he can keep the ball in the yard he has a very good shot of hitting value, and is certainly an attractive GPP play given the lack of SP options on the slate. The Marlins have a 3.82 implied line versus Archer and the Pirates this afternoon.
White Sox an intriguing contrarian stack option vs. struggling Paxton
Since returning from the IL on 5/29 James Paxton has made 3 starts, coming against the Padres, Blue Jays and Mets. Despite the decently easy matchups, Paxton has struggled to a 7.15 ERA / 5.96 xFIP / 5.40 SIERA with an ugly 13.5% BB rate, 39.4% hard contact rate and 54.5% FB rate. Paxton’s most recent start was his worst, giving up 6 earned runs over just 2 2/3 innings to the Mets at home. The White Sox have swung the bat well recently with a .329 xwOBA over the past 14 days as a team and are likely to be very low-owned today vs. Paxton and the Yanks. Jose Abreu (.379 xwOBA vs. LHP on the year), Yonder Alonso (.356), James McCann (.355), Eloy Jimenez (.336), Tim Anderson (.335), Leury Garcia (.311) and Yoan Moncada (.287) are all options in the projected lineup versus Paxton. Besides Moncada, all White Sox bats are priced $4.4k or less on Draftkings. Moncada has been by far their hottest hitter with a scorching .503 xwOBA over the past 14 days. The White Sox will also have the benefit of a very hitter friendly umpire in Nic Lentz.
Other tagged players: Tim Anderson, Leury Garcia, Yoan Moncada, James Paxton, Eloy Jimenez, James McCann, Yonder Alonso Andrew Benintendi scratched Sunday; Marco Hernandez replaces
Benintendi has been scratched from the Boston Red Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Baltimore Orioles due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Marco Hernandez, who will now play second base and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Red Sox batting order but, most notably, bumps Christian Vazquez all the way up to second, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Boston faces off against left-hander John Means on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Pete Abraham via Twitter Other tagged players: Marco Hernandez
Lefty Masher
Marcell Ozuna is a great one off today against lefty Jason Vargas. Vargas has pitched a lot better this season, but I still like picking a power righty against him. Ozuna has a .293 ISO, 57% fly ball rate, and a 42% hard hit rate against lefties. Ozuna’s price on DraftKings is just way too cheap at $4,500 for a guy who has crushed lefties over his career.
Solid Matchup
Martin Perez has a good matchup against the Kansas City Royals. Perez has had an up and down year, but the Royals against left handed pitching have really struggled. The Royals this season have a 25.5% strikeout rate, are 27th in wOBA, and are 27th in ISO to lefties this year. Perez has a 22.6% strikeout rate, and a 12.2% swinging strike rate, and the Royals are not a very patient team. In this matchup at Perez’s price I do think he can give us a strong outing today.
Sneaky Stack
The Mets are a really sneaky stack against Dakota Hudson today. I think Hudson may be a popular pick on two pitcher sites for salary relief, but he has really struggled with left handed bats. This year Hudson is giving up a .416 wOBA, .241 ISO, and a 39.6% hard hit rate to lefties. The Mets have a few good lefties in Cano, Conforto, Smith, and of course you can’t leave out Pete Alonso, who even against righties has been crushing the ball. I think in tournaments this stack will come in very low owned.
Sneaky Stack
The Mets are a really sneaky stack against Dakota Hudson today. I think Hudson may be a popular pick on two pitcher sites for salary relief, but he has really struggled with left handed bats. This year Hudson is giving up a .416 wOBA, .241 ISO, and a 39.6% hard hit rate to lefties. The Mets have a few good lefties in Cano, Conforto, Smith, and of course you can’t leave out Pete Alonso, who even against righties has been crushing the ball. I think in tournaments this stack will come in very low owned.
Sneaky Stack
The Mets are a really sneaky stack against Dakota Hudson today. I think Hudson may be a popular pick on two pitcher sites for salary relief, but he has really struggled with left handed bats. This year Hudson is giving up a .416 wOBA, .241 ISO, and a 39.6% hard hit rate to lefties. The Mets have a few good lefties in Cano, Conforto, Smith, and of course you can’t leave out Pete Alonso, who even against righties has been crushing the ball. I think in tournaments this stack will come in very low owned.
Sneaky Stack
The Mets are a really sneaky stack against Dakota Hudson today. I think Hudson may be a popular pick on two pitcher sites for salary relief, but he has really struggled with left handed bats. This year Hudson is giving up a .416 wOBA, .241 ISO, and a 39.6% hard hit rate to lefties. The Mets have a few good lefties in Cano, Conforto, Smith, and of course you can’t leave out Pete Alonso, who even against righties has been crushing the ball. I think in tournaments this stack will come in very low owned.
On Fire With The Bat
Yordon Alvarez is one of my favorite plays of the day. Alvarez has been absolutely crushing the ball since being called up to the big league. In his first 5 games he has had 4 home runs, 8 hits, and 8 RBIs with a .692 ISO against right handed pitching. He will face Trent Thornton on the mound, who has had trouble with lefties this year. giving up a .261 ISO and a 37.4% hard hit rate. Alvarez has monster upside in this matchup today.
Orioles are a solid stack option vs. Brian Johnson
Brian Johnson hasn’t shown a ton of success in the Majors: In 136 career innings as a starter and reliever, Johnson has a 4.69 ERA / 4.94 xFIP / 4.50 SIERA with a 10.8% K-BB, 1.58 HR/9, 43.5% FB rate and just a 7.6% SwStr. The Orioles haven’t been a great offense this year but have a decent amount of solid options vs. LHP and are very affordable. Pedro Severino (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Trey Mancini (.418), Renato Nunez, (.352), Hanser Alberto (.282) and Keon Broxton (.278) are all intriguing options today in the Baltimore lineup. Alberto will leadoff and costs just $3.4k on Draftkings. Severino is batting 3rd at just $4k and will likely be a very popular play given that he has mashed LHP this year. Renato Nunez is also a good value batting 4th at just $4k. Anthony Santander is another option at just $3.9k, he has a 172 wRC+ this year although in just 34 PA. Severino and Mancini have been the Orioles’ hottest hitters; each have an xwOBA over .400 the last 14 days. The Orioles currently have a 4.71 implied line versus Johnson and the Red Sox.
Other tagged players: Renato Nunez, Anthony Santander, Hanser Alberto, Keon Broxton Catch The Power
On DK/Yahoo, there is some big upside at the catcher position today. It’s always worth considering a punt at the position, but when we have a hitter of this caliber, it’s tough to pass on. I prefer the values at other positions and using one of my spends on Gary Sanchez and his extreme .376 ISO on 55% fly balls and 49% hard hits against a low strikeout pitcher in Odrisamer Despaigne and a weak White Sox bullpen.
