DFS Alerts

Back Here Again Tonight

Juan Soto was too cheap on DK/FDRFT last night before the rainout, and his price has dropped even further today for the same strong matchup. The Phillies’ Jake Arrieta is a pitcher without a strength against left-handed batters. He has struck out just 14.5% of lefties while walking 12.2% and allowing a .388 wOBA on 43% hard hits. Soto is patient enough to take walks if that’s what Arrieta wants to do and he has the power to do damage with one swing if he sees a pitch to hit. I slightly prefer him in cash games over tournaments but he’s playable everywhere.

Talented Young Pitcher

Keller is the top prospect in the Pirates organization, and after two tough road outings, he’s making his first career start at home against the Tigers tonight. He has a plus fastball with some good movement, plus an above average curveball. He had a 30.2% strikeout rate at AAA this season. The projected starting lineup for the Tigers has a 26.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. I think he’s been a little unlucky (.615 BABIP) in his first two starts, and this is a great spot to take a chance on him at this price tag.

They Are All Good, He Is Better

We have several aces tonight including Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw, but Justin Verlander has taken his game up a notch to put him in his own tier above the aces. His 32.8% strikeout rate is the highest on the slate, both his 2.41 ERA and 3.11 SIERA are the lowest marks and his 5% walks are lower than the other aces. He has also been in top form coming off a 15-K outing and carrying a 36.1% K rate on 18.6% swinging strikes and just 2.3% walks over the past month.

Ace Level Skills In An Ideal Matchup

Overall, Jack Flaherty is a few ticks behind the aces in skill level. But against right-handed batters, his 32.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walks rival the numbers of Verlander and deGrom. Tonight he is at a discount and facing a low power, high strikeout Marlins team that is loaded with right-handed bats. The upside is high enough for tournaments, the matchup and salary are strong enough for cash games.

Have To Play Somebody, I Guess

Officially, there is no core play at pitcher today. There is not one single pitcher anywhere who fits all the criteria. With that in mind, I prefer to just save some salary at pitcher, but regardless of spending up or spending down, I recommend spreading out in tournaments tonight. With Haniger on the IL and Encaracion traded, the Mariners are not only lacking for right-handed power, but they also now have the highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching. Danny Duffy is an average at best pitcher, but on this slate, average is good enough for me.

Chalk Stack

This one feels a little too obvious to write up but the reality is that Mike Trout and his fellow Angels are core plays on Monday’s slate. Unsurprisingly, the Edwin Jackson experiment has not worked well for the Blue Jays as the veteran righty has allowed 34 runs (28 earned) in just 24.2 innings pitched this season. Jackson is having difficulty keeping the ball in the yard as the opposition has taken him deep nine times as he’s allowing an average of 3.28 HRs per nine innings.

Unfortunately, HR struggles for the Blue Jays don’t stop once the ball is handed over to the bullpen, as they are giving up the fifth most HR/9 (1.57) innings in the league and own the sixth highest HR/FB rate (16.6%). Keep an eye on the Rogers Centre Roof Report for Monday’s game as an open room would aid the Angels offense even further.

Attack the Splits

It’s a little weird to get used to, but Lance Lynn has been good this season. If you take away the 2011 season where Lynn only started two games and pitched 34.2 innings, Lynn has posted the highest strikeout rate of his career (25.4%) this year and has his best SIERA (3.98) since 2014.

So why pick on one of the better pitchers on a slate full of gas cans? Lynn still struggles big time with left-handed batters and the Indians have a lineup that can fully exploit his weakness. I’ll never not be amazed when looking at Lynn’s career splits:

Lynn vs RHB: .281 wOBA, 3.08 xFIP, 26.9 K%, 6.1 BB%

Lynn vs LHB: .345 wOBA, 5.00 xFIP, 17.6 K%, 12.4 BB%

The difference is truly remarkable. Cleveland’s projected lineup has seven left-handed bats in it which is essentially Lynn’s worst nightmare.

On top of the strong platoon matchup for Cleveland’s lefties, they also get a huge park boost with this game being played down in Arlington. Indians hitters are more affordable than the Angels stack which will allow you to either allocate a little more salary to your pitcher(s) or spend up on your other bats.

Perfect Storm

The Houston Astros are a team we essentially never want to target with opposing starting pitchers but we have a bit of a perfect storm on Monday night that is making me give him some consideration. First, the lack of good pitching options makes Castillo pop as arguably the most talented arm on the slate. Second, an already watered down Astros lineup without Altuve, Springer, or Correa will now also have to drop the DH. Third, extreme pitcher’s ump Roberto Ortiz will be tasked with calling balls and strikes. It’s still far from ideal context and matchup for Castillo but it’s better than what you would initially think.

Don't Stop With One

As obvious as Mike Trout is, the rest of the Angels In The Outfield are also prime plays at more reasonable salaries. Edwin Jackson has been “better” against lefties, but that means 20% strikeouts and a .382 wOBA on 38.5% hard hits and no ground ball ability. The Blue Jays are also almost completely right-handed in the bullpen leaving Kole Calhoun and Shohei Ohtani with the platoon advantage for most of the game. Calhoun comes in with a .231 ISO with 28% line drives and 48% hard hits against right-handed pitching.

Can't Pass On These Lefties

The Phillies’ Jake Arrieta is a pitcher without a strength against left-handed batters. He has struck out just 14.5% of lefties while walking 12.2% and allowing a .388 wOBA on 43% hard hits. Juan Soto is patient enough to take walks if that’s what Arrieta wants to do and he has the power to do damage with one swing if he sees a pitch to hit. I slightly prefer him in cash games over tournaments but he’s playable everywhere.

Don't Overthink It

The top play on this slate couldn’t be any more obvious. Of course, you never have to play 100% of anybody in tournaments at high ownership, but at least in cash games, there is just no excuse to skip Mike Trout tonight. Edwin Jackson has struck out just 9% of righties this season and allowing a cartoonish .517 ISO. Mike Trout would be a top play even against an average pitcher with his .336 ISO, 51% hard hits and more walks than strikeouts against right-handed pitching.

Embrace the Variance

Pitching is a bit ugly on Monday which makes me interested in embracing variance and attacking the highest point-per-dollar upside on the slate with Danny Duffy. There’s nothing overly impressive about Duffy’s performance this season but he draws the best context of the slate on the road at pitcher friendly SafeCo against a whiff heavy Mariners team. Every hitter in the Mariners projected lineup has a strikeout rate north of 23% over the last two seasons and six hitters have a strikeout rate north of 28%. Duffy may end up allowing a handful of earned runs but the strikeout matchup gives him a strong floor and even better ceiling.

Let's Try This Again

Mikolas just faced the Marlins in Miami and allowed five earned runs on eight hits in five innings. I’m going right back to the well on Mikolas. He has a .256 wOBA at home compared to his .429 wOBA on the road. He has a .87 WHIP at home, but a massive 1.76 WHIP on the road. I’m not a huge fan of home/road splits, but I do think it’s worth noting with Mikolas. The projected starters have a .122 ISO with a .318 wOBA and a 21.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Value Play With Strikeout Upside

Duffy hasn’t been great this season, but he has some really solid strikeout upside in this matchup. The projected starting lineup for the Seattle Mariners has a 30.3% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. They’re projected to have four lefties and four righties in this lineup. Duffy has a 26.7% strikeout rate against lefties and 18.2% strikeout rate righties. There is some power in this lineup, but the tournament upside is certainly worth the risk at this price.

Start of TEX-CIN will be delayed due to rain Sunday

The start of the matchup between the Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds on Sunday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Reds have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Sonny Gray not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to have a solid window to play upon the conclusion of the initial weather delay.