DFS Alerts
Too Much Power
Baltimore’s John Means has been pretty good, but this is a tough spot for him against a powerful Red Sox lineup. Even if Means can manage another solid outing, there is still the awful Orioles bullpen for Boston to look forward to. The first bat to target here against both the fly balls of Means and the bullpen is J.D. Martinez. Over the past two seasons, he has piled up a .312 ISO and .446 wOBA on 43% hard hits against lefties. So far this season, his hard hits are up at 46% with 49% fly balls leading to an extreme .436 ISO.
Showing His Colors
The mid-range is muddled today with a large group of pitchers between 20-26% strikeout rates. Within that group, the best combination of control and matchup goes to Brad Peacock at home against the Blue Jays. Peacock has struck out 29% of right-handed batters and there are enough strikeouts throughout the Toronto lineup that even if the lefties cause him some trouble, he’ll have the chance to work out of it with those righty K’s. I would be happy with him in cash games and tournaments today.
Too Expensive, But Oh Well
Officially, Trevor Bauer looks overpriced today. He has been good, but not great and he is by no means a must-play in any format today. However, he’s still clearly the highest upside pitcher on this slate and the closest thing to safety that we have. While his control has been scary at times, one thing that boosts his value beyond the matchup and his strikeout upside are his consistently high pitch counts. In an era where 100 pitches is rare, Bauer is making 110+ the norm. He has topped 110 pitches 10 times already this season and over 100 in 13 of 15 starts. This adds to both his floor and his ceiling, with 7+ innings being the expectation. He’s also up near 30% K to righties and facing a mostly right-handed Tigers team with a high strikeout lineup. I don’t like the salary, but there is not much else to like in the lower ranges today either.
A Fine Mid-Range Arm
Gray is having a solid year for the Reds with an xFIP of 3.55 and fine metrics across the board. His strikeout rate has jumped by about 5% in 2019, and his upside is enhanced in a matchup against a Rangers lineup that has plenty of strikeouts in it. Give him a long look in all formats, especially on multi-pitcher sites.
Running Out of Chances
This is perhaps his last chance to be considered the top overall pitcher for a while. It has been an underwhelming year for Bauer, but this matchup is about as good as it gets for him against a Detroit lineup that features a lot of right-handed bats. Bauer still has solid strikeout potential with 109 strikeouts in 99 innings this year, and the biggest problem has been his command. The good news here is that the Tigers have the sixth lowest walk rate in baseball this year. If Bauer can’t get it done today, it’s officially time to be very concerned.
Plenty of Power
Paul DeJong is sporting a .396 OBP, a .401 wOBA, and a .268 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He has also been taking very good at bats of late and has homered in two of the first three games of this series against the Mets. DeJong is a great option against a low strikeout LHP in Jason Vargas, and he is one of my favorite SS plays today in both cash games and GPPs.
Elite Hitter Against LHP
Martinez has built a career on being able to smash against left-handed pitching, and he is my favorite bat on today’s slate. Since the start of the 2018 season, Martinez owns a .433 wOBA, .301 ISO, and 1.043 OPS against left-handers. Boston’s lineup matches up well with John Means, and this is a good spot even though Means has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles this year. Martinez is a great option in all formats.
Daniel Murphy scratched Saturday; Mark Reynolds replaces
Murphy has been scratched from the Colorado Rockies original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the San Diego Padres due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Mark Reynolds, who will now play first base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Rockies batting order but, most notably, bumps Ian Desmond and Ryan McMahon up to fifth and sixth, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Colorado faces off against left-hander Eric Lauer at home this evening.
As reported by: Luke Zahlmann via Twitter Other tagged players: Mark Reynolds
Rox have a good matchup versus Lauer in Coors tonight
There are a few types of pitchers that can survive Coors field, but Eric Lauer certainly isn’t one of them. Though Lauer does have a respectable GB rate at 43.5%, it won’t be enough to overcome the fact that he has just a 19% K rate and putrid 6.5% SwStr along with a 41.5% hard contact on the year. David Dahl (.418 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Ian Desmond (.403), Nolan Arenado (.365), Charlie Blackmon (.360), Chris Iannetta (.321), Trevor Story (.307) and Brendan Rodgers (.202) are all good options in the Rockies’ projected order. Rodgers has had a slow start but had a 158 wRC+ in AAA this year and is a bargain on Draftkings at just $3.7k. Desmond is also very affordable at just $4.3k. Charlie Blackmon has been the Rockies hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .466 xwOBA, followed by Chris Iannetta with a .426 mark. The Rockies have a healthy 6.21 implied line heading into their matchup with the Padres tonight.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Brendan Rodgers, Chris Iannetta, Wade LeBlanc, David Dahl
A’s once again in a great spot vs. Leblanc
The A’s will face an opener (Gerson Bautista) and then project to face Wade Leblanc as a long reliever tonight. Leblanc has a 5.31 ERA / 5.07 xFIP / 4.69 SIERA with a 41.5% FB rate and 8.5% SwStr. He also had allowed a .380 xWOBA on the year with a 91 MPH aEV and 9.2% barrel rate. Khris Davis (.388 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Matt Olson (.379), Chad Pinder (.369), Ramon Laureano (.357), Matt Chapman (.356) and Jurickson Profar (.343) are all great options tonight. With the exception of Matt Olson ($4.8k) all A’s bats are available for $4.4k or less on Draftkings. Marcus Semien (.282) and Mark Canha (.300) are projected to bat 1-2 and are also decent options. Matt Olson has been the A’s hottest bat with a .387 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Khris Davis at .344. Also working in A’s hitters’ favor tonight will be a hitter-friendly umpire in Carlos Torres. The A’s have a solid 5.44 implied line vs. the Mariners tonight.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Mark Canha, Jurickson Profar, Chad Pinder Nola looks like his old self with 3.12 xFIP and 29% K rate over past 30 days
Aaron Nola had a rough start to the season by his standards, but has picked it up over the past month; he’s currently sporting a 3.12 xFIP, 3.87 SIERA, 18.3% K-BB, 50.6% GB rate and .312 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Nola certainly does not have the best matchup tonight on the road versus the Braves, but he is at least intriguing given his depressed price across the industry, as he’s available under $9k on both Draftkings and Fanduel tonight. The Braves have a 105 wRC+ and a 21.8% K rate on the year vs. right-handed pitching. Nola will hold the platoon advantage against five out of nine Braves hitters tonight; Nola has been much better vs. RHB in his career with a .274 wOBA allowed and 27.5% K rate versus RHB compared to a .306 wOBA allowed and 23.6% K rate vs. LHB. The Braves have a 4.4 implied line vs. Nola and the Phils tonight.
Syndergaard in nice spot at home vs. STL
Noah Syndergaard has had an up and down year that so far has resulted in a 4.45 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA, 24% K rate and 6% BB rate, a 12% SwStr, just a 29.6% hard contact rate and a solid 47.6% GB rate. Syndergaard’s Statcast numbers are even more impressive as he has just a .271 xwOBA allowed with a 4% barrel/BBE and 86.2 MPH aEV. Syndergaard will face the Cardinals, who have a slightly below average 95 wRC+ and 22.5% K rate vs. right-handed pitching on the year. The Cardinals have been extremely cold of late, as they have a 29th ranked .279 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Syndergaard will also have the benefit of a pitcher-friendly ump calling balls and strikes with Brian O’Nora behind the plate. Syndergaard is reasonably priced as he’s under $9.5k on both major sites on the night slate. The Cardinals have a 4.22 implied line versus him and the Mets tonight.
Sneaky Stack
Texas could be a really sneaky stack against Tanner Roark. Roark has looked pretty good this season but he still really struggles against lefties. This season Roark has a 204 ISO, 44% fly ball rate, and a 36% hard hit rate to left handed batters. The Rangers rank 5th in wOBA and 8th in ISO to right handed pitching. I will be targeting Odor, Choo, Cabrera, Guzman in my stacks today.
Sneaky Stack
Texas could be a really sneaky stack against Tanner Roark. Roark has looked pretty good this season but he still really struggles against lefties. This season Roark has a 204 ISO, 44% fly ball rate, and a 36% hard hit rate to left handed batters. The Rangers rank 5th in wOBA and 8th in ISO to right handed pitching. I will be targeting Odor, Choo, Cabrera, Guzman in my stacks today.
Sneaky Stack
Texas could be a really sneaky stack against Tanner Roark. Roark has looked pretty good this season but he still really struggles against lefties. This season Roark has a 204 ISO, 44% fly ball rate, and a 36% hard hit rate to left handed batters. The Rangers rank 5th in wOBA and 8th in ISO to right handed pitching. I will be targeting Odor, Choo, Cabrera, Guzman in my stacks today.