DFS Alerts
Best Combination of Price Tag and Upside
Trust me, I still don’t feel all that comfortable rostering Noah Syndergaard even after he mowed down the Rockies in his last start, but it looks like he’s going to be a necessity on Saturday’s main slate. Realistically there are only a few guys worthy of cash game consideration but Syndergaard is the pitcher with the most accessible price tag as he’s priced as SP5 on DraftKings and SP4 on FanDuel. The matchup for Syndergaard is a neutral one against a Cardinals offense that doesn’t strike out a ton against right-handed pitching (22.5 K%) but has also been below average in terms of wRC+ (95). Thor will get the benefit of a pitcher’s ump behind the plate in Brian O’Nora which is a worthy tiebreaker if you’re stuck deciding between a couple of different options.
Tommy La Stella (forearm) scratched Friday; Wilfredo Tovar replaces
La Stella has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to right forearm tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Wilfredo Tovar, who will now play shortstop and slot directly into La Stella’s vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Angels lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Blake Snell on the road this evening.
As reported by: Angels PR via Twitter Other tagged players: Wilfredo Tovar
A’s bats in great spot at home vs. struggling Marco Gonzales
Marco Gonzales had a solid start to the year, but has largely struggled since. He owns a 6.01 xFIP, 5.56 SIERA and 8.20 ERA over the past 30 days with a 6.6% K-BB and 44% hard contact rate. He also has a .383 xwOBA allowed and 90.2 aEV over that time frame. Gonzales has actually been worse vs. LHB this year (.348 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .321 allowed vs. RHB) but can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight. Khris Davis (.389 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Matt Olson (.383), Chad Pinder (.371), Ramon Laureano (.360), Josh Phegley (.352), Matt Chapman (.347), and Jurickson Profar (.340) are all great options in the A’s lineup tonight. Marcus Semien (.290) is also in play batting leadoff. Matt Olson has been the A’s hottest hitter with a .396 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Chapman, Pinder, Davis, Profar and Phegley can all be had for $4.2k or less on Draftkings. The A’s have a solid 5.50 implied total tonight vs. Marco Gonzales and the Mariners.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano, Jurickson Profar, Chad Pinder, Josh Phegley, Marco Gonzales
Max Fried is a solid SP option Friday night
Fried has been solid this year with a 3.75 ERA, 3.50 xFIP and 3.91 SIERA to go with a 15.5% K-BB and a 54.3% GB rate with a 22.4% FB rate. Statcast likes Fried as he has just a .303 xwOBA allowed and a 3.2% barrels/BBE that is among the best of starting pitchers this year. Fried gets a matchup at home versus the Phillies, who have been exactly average vs. LHP this year with a 100 wRC+ and 20.6% K rate. The Phillies have been cold as of late with just a 24th ranked .310 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Also working in Fried’s favor is a pitcher-friendly ump calling balls and strikes with Jeremie Rehak beind the plate tonight. Fried is just $6.9k on Draftkings and $7.3k on Fanduel, making him a solid pts/$ play, especially on Draftkings as an SP2. The Phillies currently have a 4.27 implied line vs. Fried and the Braves Friday night.
Marlins have value in their lineup in good matchup vs. Brault
The Marlins lineup is hardly ever a place to find bats, but on a slate tonight with many viable high priced-arms, they have some decent low-priced options that make sense. The Marlins will get a matchup tonight with Steven Brault, who has had a rough year with a 5.05 ERA, 5.63 xFIP and 5.44 SIERA with just a 5.4% K-BB, 44% hard contact and an 8.8% SwStr. Brault also has a .362 xwOBA allowed and an 89.8 MPH aEV. The Pirates’ bullpen has also been atrocious over the last 30 days with a 6.27 ERA and 5.21 xFIP with a 2.04 HR/9, further enhancing the matchup for Miami bats. Garrett Cooper (.427 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jorge Alfaro (.425), Starlin Castro (.354), Brian Anderson (.336) have all hit lefties well this year and are in the Miami lineup tonight. Austin Dean (.268) hasn’t had as much success on the year but will leadoff for the Marlins at just $3.4k on Draftkings. Harold Ramirez is another option, batting 5th at $3.8k with a 106 wRC+ on the year. Garrett Cooper has been the Marlins’ hottest hitter with a .439 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Miguel Rojas at a .398 mark. With the exception of Cooper, all Marlins bats are $4k or less on Draftkings. They currently have a 4.37 implied line vs. Brault and the Pirates.
Other tagged players: Brian Anderson, Jorge Alfaro, Starlin Castro, Austin Dean, Harold Ramirez, Miguel Rojas Tough to fade Mad Max tonight in solid matchup with the D-Backs
Scherzer has been his usual self this year, posting a 2.83 ERA, 2.87 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA and a 33.3% K rate compared to just a 5% BB rate. He also currently has a career best GB rate (43.4%) and FB rate (35.4%) with a 15.7% SwStr. His Statcast numbers are equally impressive with a .267 xwOBA allowed and 7.5% barrels/BBE with an 88.2 aEV. Scherzer has seen much better success versus righties this year, with a .232 xwOBA and 38.2% K rate vs. RHB compared to a .315 xwOBA and 26.6% K rate vs. LHB. Four of nine D-Backs hitters will be RHB tonight. As a team, the Diamondbacks have just an 88 wRC+ and 22.7% K rate versus right-handed pitching on the year and just a .311 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. The D-Backs don’t have a single batter in the lineup with an xwOBA > .350 vs. RHP on the year, and have just 2 batters (Adam Jones, Ketel Marte) with an xwOBA > .310 vs. RHP this year. Scherzer will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly umpire in Dan Bellino. Though there are a decent amount of SP options on the slate, you really can’t go wrong paying up for Scherzer, especially in cash. The D-Backs have just a 3.03 implied line vs. Scherzer and the Nats tonight.
Red Sox have highest non-Coors Total on the board vs. Orioles’ Ortiz
The Red Sox will have a dream matchup tonight facing off with Luis Ortiz in Baltimore. Ortiz had a 7.01 ERA, 5.60 xFIP and 7.4 K-BB% over 53 innings in AAA this year. He projects as a 6+ ERA pitcher by most projection systems and should really struggle to get outs. Red Sox hitters project to get many of their plate appearances versus the Baltimore bullpen, which has largely struggled this year with a 6th worst 4.89 xFIP and 2nd worst 1.74 HR/9. JD Martinez (.416 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year), Rafael Devers (.399), Xander Bogaerts (.359), Andrew Benintendi (.349), Jackie Bradley Jr. (.334) and Michael Chavis (.326) are all good options in the Boston lineup tonight. JD Martinez has been their hottest bat over the past 14 days with a .441 xwOBA, followed by Xander Bogaerts with a .413 mark. Michael Chavis will leadoff tonight for the Sox but has been extremely cold of late with a .180 xwOBA over the last 14 days. Brock Holt is a nice value, batting 6th at just $3.8k on Draftkings with a .351 xwOBA over the past 14 days. The Red Sox have a gaudy 6.30 implied total tonight vs. Ortiz and the Orioles.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Jackie Bradley, Xander Bogaerts, Michael Chavis, Rafael Devers, Brock Holt FanDuel Free Square
While Paul Goldschmidt is Friday’s cash game free square on DraftKings, Derek Dietrich is the cash game free square on FanDuel. The Rangers will use Jesse Chavez as an opener for Friday’s game and he’ll be followed by a bullpen primarily full of right-handed pitching. Dietrich’s pinch hit risk is low considering the matchup and he’s got a ton of power upside with this game taking place at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
Good Run Prevention Spot, Some Strikeout Upside
After a scorching start to the season Mariners bats have cooled down a bit and are no longer an offense to avoid with opposing pitchers. Seattle strikes out at the seventh highest rate (24.7%) in the league against right-handed pitching which helps inflate the floor of opposing pitchers. Friday’s context is good for Chris Bassitt as he’ll toe the rubber at home at pitcher friendly O.co. This is a good run prevention spot for The Hound but the matchup also gives him a little bit of strikeout upside.
Monster Power for Cheap
Look, I know Goldschmidt is having a down year offensively but HE IS $3,900 ON DRAFTKINGS! Goldy has dominated left-handed pitching throughout his career to the tune of a 165 wRC+ and .263 ISO. The Cardinals first basemen is an absolute lock in cash games on DK/FDraft and is a strong tournament option everywhere else.
Low-Owned Stack Should Put Runners On Base Tonight
The Marlins should fly completely under the radar tonight as usual, particularly with their low sub-4.5 implied run total, but they have some upside tonight facing Steven Brault in Miami. Brault has a 13.6% walk rate over the past two season, highest of any starting pitcher on the slate, so if the Marlins are able to go deep there is a good chance there will be runners on base. With Brault’s career .463 slugging percentage allowed to right handed hitters (compared to .325 to lefties) I’ll be targeting the Marlins right-handed hitters such as Austin Dean, Garrett Cooper, Brian Anderson, and Jorge Alfaro.
Other tagged players: Garrett Cooper, Brian Anderson, Jorge Alfaro
Twins have a league high 149 wRC+ last seven days, have the highest implied run line outside Coors
Brad Keller has turned the lineup over three times in five straight starts, but brings just a 4.1 K-BB% into Minnesota, a team that dominates RHP (122 wRC+, 20 K%, 17.7 HR/FB) and has the highest wRC+ in the league (149) over the last week with a 38 Hard-Soft%. Despite a 92.2 Z-Contact% that’s worst on the board, what Keller does do is keep the ball on the ground (52.1%) and in the park (6.2 HR/FB), but that latter number is likely unsustainable, considering and 89.5 mph aEV that’s in the bottom quarter of the league. His 4.29 ERA is much lower than estimators around five, including a 5.06 DRA. His .322 xwOBA over the last month, is a bit ahead of his .348 mark on the season. The Twins are the only team outside Coors implied above six runs, which says a lot, but considering Keller’s tendency to keep the ball in the yard, this should be a stacking effort with the expectation of a big inning or two. Keller has been most vulnerable to LHBs, with splits separated by over 40 points by wOBA and xwOBA over the last calendar year. LHBs have also been able to generate a bit more air contact with a 48.9 GB% against him over that span. The Minnesota lineup projects five LHBs against Keller tonight. Max Kepler (118 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jorge Polanco (153 wRC+, .211 ISO), Eddie Rosario (106 wRC+, .239 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (99 wRC+, .160 ISO) and Jason Castro (149 wRC+, .353 ISO) represent a very strong group.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Marwin Gonzalez, Jason Castro, Brad Keller
Top Point-Per-Dollar Upside
It feels a little awkward declaring Eduardo Rodriguez the top overall option on a slate that has Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer on it but the plethora of high-end bats available appears to make saving salary at the pitching position a necessity on Friday night. The matchup for Rodriguez is a good one as he’ll toe the rubber against a Baltimore team that owns the sixth highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching (26.1%) and has been below average offensively (90 wRC+) against southpaws. Rodriguez has shown some strikeout upside this season with a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 12.1% whiff-rate and has the highest point-per-dollar ceiling on the slate.
Cheap Pitcher Has Extra Strikeout Potential Tonight
Tyler Mahle is dirt cheap across sites today, but there is reason to like his upside tonight facing the Rangers in Cincinnati. Mahle has increased his strikeout rate from 21.7% last year to 25.0% this season, while lowering his walk rate from 10.5% to 5.1%. Tonight he takes on a Texas offense that has the 5th-highest K% in the majors, and will lose their DH spot playing in a National League park. The Reds are strong -160 favorites tonight in a game with a high 9.5 run total, so Mahle has some risk, but he is a favorite with the strikeout upside to pay off his low price.
Low-priced Pitcher Taking On Slumping Offense
Lineups for this game may not be out by lock as the Cardinals and Mets have to finish their suspended game first, but no matter who is in the lineup, I like a low-priced Steven Matz tonight. The Cardinals have ranked dead last in the league in wOBA and WRC+ over the past 30 days – worse than the Giants, Tigers, and Marlins – and now they have to travel to Citi Field, one of the worst hitting parks in the majors. Steven Matz has the highest K% of his career this season at 24.2%, along with a decent 4.07 SIERA, and the Mets are favored at home in a game with a 8.5 run total.