DFS Alerts
Sneaky Stack
Texas could be a really sneaky stack against Tanner Roark. Roark has looked pretty good this season but he still really struggles against lefties. This season Roark has a 204 ISO, 44% fly ball rate, and a 36% hard hit rate to left handed batters. The Rangers rank 5th in wOBA and 8th in ISO to right handed pitching. I will be targeting Odor, Choo, Cabrera, Guzman in my stacks today.
Too Much Power
I like the Yankees as a stack option today against Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez over his last four starts has given up 7 home runs with 20 earned runs. Lopez this season has a 39.6% hard hit rate, and a 49.6% fly ball rate. The Yankees as a team against right handed pitching rank 4th in wOBA and ISO this season. With Coors on this slate the Yankees could come in a little under owned, which makes them a great tournament stack.
Too Much Power
I like the Yankees as a stack option today against Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez over his last four starts has given up 7 home runs with 20 earned runs. Lopez this season has a 39.6% hard hit rate, and a 49.6% fly ball rate. The Yankees as a team against right handed pitching rank 4th in wOBA and ISO this season. With Coors on this slate the Yankees could come in a little under owned, which makes them a great tournament stack.
Too Much Power
I like the Yankees as a stack option today against Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez over his last four starts has given up 7 home runs with 20 earned runs. Lopez this season has a 39.6% hard hit rate, and a 49.6% fly ball rate. The Yankees as a team against right handed pitching rank 4th in wOBA and ISO this season. With Coors on this slate the Yankees could come in a little under owned, which makes them a great tournament stack.
Favorite One off In GPPs
Pete Alonso should come in at a low ownership today in a great matchup against Michael Wacha. Wacha is a reverse splits pitcher who has really struggled to righties giving up a 414 wOBA, 269 ISO, and a 40% hard hit rate. Alonso has been really good this season with a 289 ISO, 366 wOBA, and a 42% hard hit rate to right handed pitching. Alonso has the power to get it done in this matchup and he should go over looked against the chalky cheap option Wacha.
Way Too Cheap For His Upside
German Marquez is under priced today against the Padres. Hopefully people shy away from this game because it is being played in Coors and the Padres over their last two games have put up 22 runs. This is really a good spot in tournaments for Marquez. Marquez has shown the strikeout upside we look for in a pitcher with a 29% strikeout rate to right handed batters. This Padres team has the highest strikeout rate this season against right handed pitching at 26.7%.
Sale in a great spot vs. sputtering O's offense on early slate
Arguably the best SP play on the board for the afternoon slate is Chris Sale, who gets a nice matchup versus the Orioles in Baltimore today. Sale’s early season struggles are firmly in the rearview as he has returned to his dominant self; over the past 30 days Sale has a 2.98 xFIP, 2.93 SIERA, 36.2% K rate, 6.9% BB rate and .220 xwOBA allowed (!). The Orioles will come into this game with just an 89 wRC+ and 25.7% K rate vs. left-handed pitchers on the year. They’ve also been one of the coldest offenses over the past 14 days with a 27th ranked .287 xwOBA. The O’s project to have just 3 batters in their lineup who have an xwOBA greater .310 vs. LHP on the year. The Orioles have just a 2.86 implied total vs. Sale and the Red Sox, and Sale will have a good shot at a ‘W’ given the Red Sox are currently -320 favorites.
Giants lineup has value vs. Jimmy Nelson
After missing all of 2018 due to injury, Jimmy Nelson made his debut earlier this month on 6/5, giving up 4 earned runs in just 3 innings of work. He walked a batter per inning, averaged just 92.5 MPH on his fastball (down from 94.5 MPH in 2017) and certainly looked like a pitcher that is trying to shake off rust after a long absence. Though Oracle Park is certainly not hitter-friendly, Giants bats are very affordable across the industry and are an option for those that are paying up for Sale and/or Strasburg on the afternoon slate. Brandon Belt (.387 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Buster Posey (.367), Evan Longoria (.326), Joe Panik (.315) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all solid options in the Giants’ projected order. Pablo Sandoval (.379) is also a great option if he can crack the starting lineup. Belt has been the Giants’ hottest hitter with a .407 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Sandoval with a .393 mark. Mike Yastrzemski projects to bat 2nd, but has just a .242 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year. All Giants’ bats are available for $3.8k or less on Draftkings with the exception of Belt, who is $4.2k.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Joe Panik, Pablo Sandoval, Jimmy Nelson Taking Advantage of a Good Matchup
It’s uncomfortable to say this, but I’ll hitch myself to the Wacha bandwagon tonight. The St. Louis starter is very cheap on every site at $6,900 (FD), $5,500 (DK), and $11,300 (FDRAFT). The Mets aren’t a great team, and there’s not much to love in the way of SP #2 options on this slate. I’ll likely stick with Buehler on single pitcher sites, but Wacha can be considered a cash game core play on the multi pitcher sites simply because of his price tag. It’s also encouraging that he should have some confidence after his best outing of the year earlier this week; even though that came against the Marlins.
Saturday's Top Arm
After a rocky start to the season, Buehler has settled into a groove of late. He has an impeccable 54/4 K/BB ratio over his seven starts since the beginning of May, and he has posted a 2.15 ERA in that span. His 4% walk rate is among the best marks in the league, and while this isn’t a great matchup against a Cubs offense that is one of the better squads in the league, Buehler has the ability to overcome any matchup. It helps that he is pitching at home in Dodger Stadium, which is a great place to pitch at night, and the Dodgers are simply rolling right now. On a night that offers more questions than answers on the mound, Buehler is the clear-cut top pitching option on the board despite his high price tag.
Value Hunting
I keep waiting for regression with Minor, but it might be time to consider that he really has improved. His metrics have been consistent all year, but I don’t love him in this park against an offense that doesn’t strike out a ton. In fact, I’ve tagged Yasiel Puig as a core value. He generally hits in the middle of the order against LHP, and he’s the type of hitter than can take advantage of Minor’s hard contact issues. and Puig owns a .241 ISO against LHP this year. There’s not a ton of cheap options on this slate, so I’ll side with some Puig here.
Great Matchup With Solid Upside
Our PlateIQ tools absolutely love the Twins tonight. In fact, if I sort the evening slate by PIQ rank, three Twins currently rise to the top of the list as of the time I am writing this. Those three would be Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Jorge Polanco. You can’t really go wrong with any of the three LHBs in a matchup against Sparkman, a journeyman with a SIERA and xFIP near 5.00 and a 14% strikeout rate over his major league sample size. All three of the aforementioned hitters have ISO marks of .280+ against RHP so far this year, with Polanco owning a .430 wOBA and Kepler owning a .375 wOBA against RHP. Kepler could get five at bats here and is the one I have marked as a core play, but it’s largely splitting hairs. Throw in some lower in the order bats for value if you are stacking up the Twins in GPP formats.
At Home Vs. a LHP -- Again
The Rockies are facing about their 85th lefty of the week tonight, but that’s not necessarily a great thing right now. Outside of the two studs (Story and Arenado), this is a LH-heavy lineup that’s hard to feel great about against a lefty. Arenado got an injury scare earlier this week and was supposed to get a night off to rest on Friday, but he was pressed into late game action after Trevor Story got injured. Now, it’s Story’s status that is in question for tonight. In any case, the Rockies get to face yet another left-handed pitcher at home, and that means we can continue to target Arenado in our DFS lineups. His career home splits against LHP are video game worthy, with a career .370 average, .486 wOBA, and .377 ISO against southpaws at Coors FIeld. If it’s not broken, don’t fix it. Arenado should rake against Eric Lauer tonight.
Unchanged Price
Gregorius has been back in the Yankees lineup for a week yet his price tag remain largely unchanged despite solid production hitting in the meat of the order for one of the better lineups in the league. Didi has proven solid on base skills (.389 OBP) and some pop (.184 ISO) against right-handed pitching throughout his career and has seen significant improvement offensively over the last three seasons. Saturday’s matchup for Gregorius and the Yankees is a favorable one against Reynaldo Lopez who has struggled with control and had trouble getting outs this season.
Keep An Eye On Weather
My SP2 decision is likely going to be decided by the weather on Saturday night as early forecasts look troubling in Cincinnati. Weather permitting, Tanner Roark is my preferred #2 starting pitcher on multi-pitching sites but my plan is to pivot to Michael Wacha if rain looks to be an issue for Roark. The best thing I can say about Wacha is that he is extremely cheap which enables you to squeeze in more expensive bats which appear to be valuable on this slate.
Other tagged players: Michael Wacha