DFS Alerts
Steven Matz struck out a season high 10 last time out and now has just a 3.27 DRA
Steven Matz has now completed six innings in four straight starts, striking out a season high 10 Rockies in his last start. Although he had a 12.5 SwStr% in that start, his season mark sits at 9.1%, barely able to support his 24.2 K% for the season. There may be some evidence for a good curveball generating more called strikes, but there’s still a limit on expectations there. He’s also generating 10.3% Barrels/BBE with a league average exit velocity, which has led to a 20 HR/FB. His .320 xwOBA is league average. His .301 mark over the last month is 50 points below his actual mark. A 3.88 ERA within half a run of all of his non-FIP estimators, except for an even more optimistic 3.27 DRA. The Cardinals have just an 11.3 K-BB% vs LHP, but also only a 94 wRC+, while their 62 wRC+ over the last week is worst on the board with a 26.6 K% and 8.9 HR/FB. Matz costs less than $8K on either site tonight and at just $7.1K on DraftKings, makes for an interesting compliment to a higher priced arm.
Ryan Carpenter has allowed nine HRs in six starts and has the highest xwOBA (.393) on the board
Ryan Carpenter has allowed nine HRs and struck out just 19 over his six starts. He’s allowed a 90.5 mph aEV and 11.1% Barrels/BBE with a 48.1 Hard%, according to Statcast, that’s bottom 3% of the league. While a 7.89 ERA is not entirely confirmed by his estimators, a 5.27 SIERA is the lowest of them, still denoting a pitcher with significant problems, not even taking the quality of the contact into account. His 91.3 Z-Contact% is second worst on the board, while a .393 xwOBA does take that contact into account and is easily the worst mark on the board. The Tribe have not made a lot of noise with the bats this year, but are still one of nine teams above five implied runs in this top matchup. RHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Carpenter over the last calendar year. Francisco Lindor (151 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is having his normal season. Carlos Santana (136 wRC+, .187 ISO) has rebounded. Jordan Luplow (146 wRC+, .347 ISO) and Oscar Mercado (88 wRC+, .219 ISO, 62.5 Hard%) are newer additions who have produced in smaller samples against southpaws and generally find themselves in the upper half of the lineup against them now. Roberto Perez (122 wRC+, .215 ISO) is an affordable catching option.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado, Roberto Perez, Ryan Carpenter Andrew Heaney has allowed six HRs, but struck out 28 of 67 batters with a 19.4 SwStr%
Andrew Heaney has struck out 28 of the 67 batters he’s faced this season with a 19.4 SwStr% that’s nearly a league average strikeout rate itself. His 78.3 Z-Contact% is second best on the board, behind only the pitcher he is facing tonight, while his 31.1 Z-O-Swing% is also behind only Snell and Kyle Gibson. There is a downside here. He has allowed two HRs in each of his three starts (92 mph aEV, 17.1% Barrels/BBE), five of them to RHBs. Tommy Pham (140 wRC+, .135 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Avisail Garcia (125 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Yandy Diaz (143 wRC+, .182 ISO) are all fine plays here, but despite the fact that the upside in Heaney’s arm can’t be ignored either for less than $9K. He’s in a negative run environment against an offense with a split high 28.3 K% vs LHP this year.
LHBs have a .399 wOBA, 43.1 Hard% and 30.4 GB% against Tyler Mahle last 12 months
Tyler Mahle has sustained a 9.5 SwStr% over the last month (the same as his season rate) with a dip in his strikeout rate to 21.5% over this span, pulling his season K/SwStr below 2.7 and into a more acceptable range. Mahle has excellent control (5 BB%), but depends too much on called strikes and pitches up in the zone without missing enough bats. A resultant 90 mph aEV has generated a 20 HR/FB, averaging one per start. His major issue is with LHBs, whom have a .399 wOBA, 43.1 Hard% and 30.5 GB% over the last year against him. This is where the absence of Joey Gallo hurts, but the Rangers still have LH power in this lineup. In fact, among those in the projected lineup tonight, only Nomar Mazara (95 wRC+, .151 ISO) is below a .180 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Shin-Soo Choo (140 wRC+, .226 ISO) should be considered one of the stronger overall bats on this slate, while Ronald Guzman (117 wRC+, .226 ISO) is a somewhat sneaky home run threat. While the park in Cincinnati is an overall run environment downgrade for the Texas offense, it’s actually more generous in terms of power. Losing their DH, the Rangers sit right in the middle of the board at 4.3 implied runs, but LHBs are still plenty viable here. Incredibly, this will be just Mahle’s fourth home start of the season. His 20 HR/FB has come pitching mostly in power suppressing parks this year.
Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Tyler Mahle, Ronald Guzman SIERA (3.88) and FIP (3.77) well below Eduardo Rodriguez's 5.00 ERA
Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t necessarily go deep into games (more than six innings just twice), but has a steady DFS floor with fewer than five strikeouts just once this year (second start). His 5.00 ERA and 5.72 over the last month might scare some people off, but that’s purely the result of a .347 BABIP. A 23.4 LD% and 1.6 IFFB% are not ideal, but it would still seem unsustainable. Statcast tells us he’s 86.4 mph aEV (6.3% Barrels/BBE) is in the 81st percentile, resulting in a .303 xwOBA. His 7.7 Hard-Soft% is second best on the board. A 3.88 SIERA and 3.77 FIP are probably more in line with what should be expected going forward, although he does have a 4.58 DRA. Cause for optimism tonight, ERod has the O’s (20.1 K-BB%, 8.9 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) in Baltimore. A more power friendly environment than Fenway in a lot of respects, it’s still an overall run environment upgrade for Rodriguez, who at $8.5K on FanDuel and just $8K on DraftKings, should be a favored mid-range option tonight.
Andrew Heaney has 41.8% K rate and 2.36 SIERA since return from IL
There are a number of good pitching options on the board tonight; one of the most intriguing guys is Heaney who has looked terrific over 16 and 2/3 innings since coming off the IL. Over those 16 2/3 innings, Heaney has a 5.40 ERA but a much better 3.06 xFIP, 2.36 SIERA and 19.4% SwStr. He also has a sold xwOBA allowed at .287, though has given up a high % of barrels/BBE with a 17.1% mark. Heaney has shown increased velocity and spin rate on all 3 of his pitches (sinker, curve, change) so far this year, which seems to certainly have helped him so far in 2019. His curve has been the most improved, with its average spin rate going from 2383 RPM in 2018 to 2535 RPM in 2019, which has helped improve the whiff rate on the pitch from 42.9% in 2018 to 63.8% in 2019. Heaney will matchup with the Rays in Tampa Bay tonight, who have a slightly above average 102 wRC+ vs. LHP but that number comes with a league-worst 28.3% K rate, giving Heaney a nice ceiling. The Rays have just a 21st ranked .314 xwOBA over the past month vs. LHP. Heaney can be had for under $9k on both sides and looks like a solid pts/$ play with a nice ceiling. The Rays currently have just 3.98 implied runs vs. Heaney, although Heaney and the Angels are underdogs given that they will be facing Blake Snell.
It Looks Real To Me
I just can’t get enough of all the high strikeout pitchers on this slate. I could call almost 10 of these guys core plays, but what I want to do most is find the best combination of upside and salary. After Cole and Scherzer up top, I am looking at the savings in the Angels-Rays game with two elite strikeout lefties. The big question is whether or not we can believe 16 innings of dominance from Andrew Heaney. If it’s real, then he’s a steal at this salary. With Tampa being a high strikeout team against lefties, I’m willing to jump on board and find out at this price. Heaney has 28 strikeouts and a goofy 19.4% swinging strike rate in his first three starts of the year. Even with a sizeable dropoff, he is still too cheap.
It All Evens Out Eventually
It is not surprising that Coors Field was the fix for the early season batted ball struggles of Manny Machado. He has an ugly .095 ISO and .279 wOBA against righties so far this season, but his solid plate skills combined with 40% hard hits told us that it would turn around sooner or later. It’s not as if two home runs last night make him all better, but I’m going off of the salary vs the long term skills and hard hits that make him look way underpriced for Coors Field tonight.
Site Specific Values
The Rangers are going with a bullpen game in Cincinnati, and the Reds have some of the most useful salary savers on this slate. On some sites, Derek Dietrich is priced up appropriately for his huge .373 ISO, but on FD, he’s priced down at $2,900 which is too good to pass up on this loaded Friday night slate.
The Obvious Play Is The Right Play
If I can spend up on one bat tonight, it will be the leadoff man in Coors Field. In the very small sample from Padres starter Cal Quantrill, he has been very splitsy with good enough numbers against righties for me to put Charlie Blackmon ahead of teammates Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story as the top spend tonight. Blackmon has four HR and 10 hits in the last four days and a huge .315 ISO and .441 wOBA against righties so far this season.
The Upside Just Keeps Coming
I would love to be able to pay up for two pitchers tonight on DK/FDRFT/Yahoo, while focusing on the high end in all FD lineups, but realistically, with so much good offense, at some point we’ll need to look a little cheaper. Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t quite match the aces in upside, but he has a well above average 25.7% strikeout rate and solid 7.1% walks and with his limited hard contact, his BABIP looks fluky high. I view him by his 3.88 SIERA more than his 5.00 ERA. The best thing going for him in this matchup is a Baltimore team that has no patience at the plate with the 3rd lowest walk rate in the league against lefties. Pitch count is Rodriguez biggest issue and the Orioles should help him get that sorted out. I would be happy with ERod as a cash game SP2 on two-pitcher sites and in tournaments on all sites.
So Many Aces, So Little Time
We are loaded up with aces tonight, but the first decision up top is between Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. You can’t go wrong with either of these aces, but I’m leaning towards the higher strikeout rate of Cole, leading the league with a 38.6% K rate and facing an easier opponent for both strikeouts and power with a home matchup against the Blue Jays. Cole is over 35% strikeouts to both right and left-handed batters while the Blue Jays have six batters in the projected lineup above a 24% strikeout rate.
Start of TOR-BAL will be delayed due to rain Thursday
The start of the matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles on Thursday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Orioles have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Marcus Stroman not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through upon the conclusion of the initial weather delay.
As reported by: Rob Longley via Twitter
David Fletcher (shoulder) scratched Thursday; Wilfredo Tovar replaces
Fletcher has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to the lingering effects of a sore shoulder. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Wilfredo Tovar, who will now play shortstop and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Tommy La Stella all the way up to leadoff, respectively. However, the remainder of the Angels lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Ryan Yarbrough on the road this evening.
As reported by: Angels PR via Twitter Other tagged players: Wilfredo Tovar David Price is top three in strikeout rate (29.4%) and xwOBA (.277) for less than $10K tonight
David Price struck out 10 Rays last time out and is just one of three pitchers above a 26% strikeout rate on this board (29.4%) and his 80.2 Z-Contact% is best on the board. He’s done this while managing contact well as well (86.9 mph aEV, 11.2 Hard-Soft%). Price also compares favorably with Jacob deGrom and Matt Boyd in terms of xwOBA. His .277 mark is two points off deGrom’s lead tonight with Boyd one behind. While his estimators are a bit behind his 2.70 ERA due to an 80.8 LOB%, not a single one of them even reaches 3.50. Price is having a very strong season and while normally, Fenway might be a detractor, he may actually be in a pretty strong spot tonight. Temperatures in the 50s make for good pitching weather and while the Rangers hit the ball hard (split high 29.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP), they don’t hit it all that often (26.9 K%, 87 wRC+ vs LHP). Price costs less than $10K tonight and is either only the fourth or fifth most expensive pitcher on either site.