DFS Alerts
Twins in great spot vs. Carpenter
Ryan Carpenter has a 6.70 ERA, 5.04 xFIP and 5.02 SIERA over 48 innings in his big league career, along with a 41% hard contact rate, 8.2% SwStr and 10.4% K-BB. Even worse, he has a .397 xwOBA with a 11.6% barrel rate for his career. The Tigers also have the worst bullpen xFIP in the league with a 5.12 mark so far this year, further enhancing the outlook for Twins’ bats this afternoon. CJ Cron (165 wRC+, .290 ISO vs. LHP since 2018), Nelson Cruz (153 wRC+, .306 ISO), Byron Buxton (113 wRC+, .210 ISO), Mitch Garver (105 wRC+, .150 ISO), Eddie Rosario (101 wRC+, .152 ISO) and Max Kepler (99 wRC+, .173 ISO) are all solid options this afternoon. Miguel Sano is also a great option as he has a 133 wRC+ so far this year in the midst of a bounce-back season. Jorge Polanco has just an 81 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2018, but has an improved 106 wRC+ vs. LHP so far this year and is leading off for the Twins today. The Twins have a juicy 5.79 implied line vs. Carpenter and the Tigers Sunday.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Ryan Carpenter, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler
SP Pivot In GPPs
Robbie Ray has great upside in tournaments. He faces a Blue Jays team who is middle of the pack in strikeouts but is 24th in ISO and 27th in wOBA to left handed pitching. Ray has a 30.3% strikeout rate, and a 13.3% swing strike rate this season. He is in play on all sites but I do love his price tag on FanDuel at 8800.
Sonny Gray has been a borderline ace over the last 30 days with a 2.69 SIERA and 30% K rate
A change of scenery has done Sonny Gray well this year, as he has put up a solid 3.54 ERA / 3.29 xFIP / 3.76 SIERA with a 17.8% K-BB, 57.6% GB rate and 10.9% SwStr. Over the past month, Gray has been even better with a 3.23 xFIP, 2.69 SIERA, 22% K-BB and just a .283 xwOBA with an 85.3 MPH aEV. After complaining about using the slider too much while with the Yankees, Gray has actually used it even more in Cincinnati this year. The slider has been a great pitch for him with a .177 xwOBA allowed and 38.8% Whiff rate on the year. Gray gets a matchup on the road vs. the Phillies this afternoon, who are generally an overrated offense as they have just a 92 wRC+ and 23.4% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They also have a below average .312 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Gray is a much more intriguing play on Fanduel where his price is just $7.7k, but is still worth a shot in GPPs on Draftkings even at $9.2k.
Sneaky Stack
The Diamondbacks are one of my favorite stacks in tournaments. They face off against Clayton Richards who has a strikeout rate and walk rate at 16.4% this season. This season, Arizona as a team has just crushed left handed pitching being 2nd in ISO, 4th in wOBA, and 1st in home runs. I will be targeting Marte, Escobar, Cron, and Vargas in my stack.
Sneaky Stack
The Diamondbacks are one of my favorite stacks in tournaments. They face off against Clayton Richards who has a strikeout rate and walk rate at 16.4% this season. This season, Arizona as a team has just crushed left handed pitching being 2nd in ISO, 4th in wOBA, and 1st in home runs. I will be targeting Marte, Escobar, Cron, and Vargas in my stack.
Sneaky Stack
The Diamondbacks are one of my favorite stacks in tournaments. They face off against Clayton Richards who has a strikeout rate and walk rate at 16.4% this season. This season, Arizona as a team has just crushed left handed pitching being 2nd in ISO, 4th in wOBA, and 1st in home runs. I will be targeting Marte, Escobar, Cron, and Vargas in my stack.
Great Matchup
I really like the matchup for Rodriguez tonight. The Rays this season have the highest strikeout rate to left handed pitching. Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of 25.5%, swinging strike rate of 12.8%, and is doing a great job limiting hard contact with a 29% hard hit rate. Even if he gives up a couple of runs I still like his strikeout upside against this Rays team.
Sneaky One Off
Yoan Moncada is someone I think could go overlooked today. He faces Glenn Sparkman, who has really struggled against left handed bats, giving up a .231 ISO, 51% fly ball rate, and a 48% hard hit rate. Moncada has been hitting the ball well this season against right handed pitching, with a .265 ISO, .394 wOBA, and a 40% hard hit rate. He could be a sneaky option to pay up for today in tournaments.
A’s have highest total of the day vs. struggling Smyly
Drew Smyly is still hanging onto a rotation spot with the Rangers despite a horrendous 7.93 ERA, 6.26 xFIP, 5.66 SIERA, 5.9 % K-BB, a 27.3% GB rate and 53.4% hard contact allowed. He also has a .380 xwOBA allowed, 9.8% barrels/BBE and 90.1 aEV. Over the past 30 days, Smyly has somehow been even worse with a 6.51 xFIP, 7.39 SIERA, 0% K-BB and .382 xwOBA allowed. The Rangers bullpen has a 3rd worst 4.54 SIERA on the year and A’s bats should continue to tee off even once they have chased Minor from the game. Mark Canha (150 wRC+, .314 ISO vs. LHP since 2018), Matt Chapman (131 wRC+, .219 ISO), Chad Pinder (130 wRC+, .195 ISO), Khris Davs (130 wRC+, .286 ISO), Stephen Piscotty (127 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Marcus Semien (110 wRC+, .172 ISO) are all great options in the Athletics’ projected order for this afternoon in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. The A’s have a 6.64 implied total vs. Smyly and are by far the best stack option on the late slate.
Other tagged players: Stephen Piscotty, Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Matt Chapman, Drew Smyly, Marcus Semien White Sox lineup has value and upside in great matchup vs. Sparkman
Glenn Sparkman has a 3.77 ERA for the Royals this year over 31 innings, but everything in his profile suggests that number should be much higher. He’s got a 5.09 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA, 8.2% K-BB, 27% Hard-Soft and just a 7.6% SwStr. He’s also sporting a horrendous .371 xwOBA allowed and 92 MPH aEV. Over the past 30 days, Sparkman has a 5.78 xFIP, 6.37 SIERA, 3% K-BB, .425 xwOBA allowed and 93.1 MPH aEV. Yoan Moncada (.399 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jose Abreu (.372), Wellington Castillo (.362), Tim Anderson (.353), Eloy Jimenez (.313) and Yonder Alonso (.301) are all solid options this afternoon vs. Sparkman. Leury Garcia (.273) projects to leadoff and occasionally will steal a base with 7 on the year, he also has a .339 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Castillo, Alonso and Jimenez are all available under $3.5k on Draftkings and project to be in the top-6 of the White Sox order. The White Sox have a 4.89 implied total vs. Sparkman and the Royals this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Welington Castillo, Yonder Alonso, Leury Garcia, Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Glenn Sparkman Cheap Power Hitter Against Bad Lefty
The Brewers have an implied team total approaching 6 runs so they should have a ton of ownership, but rightfully so. Brault has been #awful this season, allowing a .957 OPS to right-handed batters this season. This means Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, an always-cheap Jesus Aguilar and Yasmani Grandal are my primary targets. Aguilar’s price tag and ballpark factors makes me like him in all formats, especially cash games.
Cheap Catcher In Prime Hitting Spot
I’m not trying to go out of my way to pick on Eduardo Rodriguez, who I like in all formats today, but catcher is an ugly position today. Travis d’Arnaud is affordable and hitting 5th for the Rays, which catches my eye. If you aren’t spending all the way up at catcher today, which doesn’t seem feasible in cash games with paying for pitching a priority, I’d given d’Arnaud a look as he’ll hold the platoon advantage and be in a spot to drive in runs if the Rays can get men on base against Rodriguez.
Brewers in a great spot at home vs. Brault
Steven Brault has had a rough year so far with a 5.45 ERA / 5.77 xFIP / 5.46 SIERA, a 5.1% K-BB, 41.9% hard contact rate and 9.1% SwStr between the bullpen and rotation for Pirates. Brault also has a .373 xwOBA allowed and 89.3 MPH aEV on the year along with a 6.76 SIERA and -1% K-BB over the past 30 days. Christian Yelich (.453 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Mike Moustakas (.382), Ryan Braun (.340), Lorenzo Cain (.333) and Jesus Aguilar (.313) are all great options in the MIL projected order Sunday afternoon vs. Brault. Hernan Perez (.272) is just $3.7k on Draftkings and projects to hit near the top of the order. Aguilar is just $3.2k as he’s struggled so far in 2019 but had a 144 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2018. Manny Pina has a .550 xwOBA vs. LHP this year, though in just 15 PA. Cain and Braun should bat near the top of the order for the Brewers and are both available under $4.5k. The Brewers have a healthy 5.77 implied line Sunday afternoon vs. the Pirates.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Hernan Perez, Manny Pina, Steven Brault, Mike Moustakas Wade Miley has 26% K rate over past 30 days, gets nice matchup vs. Orioles today
Wade Miley started out the season with a low 3.24 ERA over the first month, but a 15.2 K% and 4.62 xFIP left a lot to be desired from a fantasy standpoint, and regression was expected. However, Miley has taken a step forward over the last 30 days as he’s improved his K rate to 26% while keeping his walk rate at just 7%, and has put up a 3.86 xFIP / 3.76 SIERA and just a .289 xwOBA allowed. Miley matches up with the Orioles today, who have a 90 wRC+ and 26.2% K rate in 2019. They also have been one of the colder offenses in baseball with just a 27th ranked .297 xwOBA over the past two weeks. Working against Miley today will be a very hitter-friendly umpire in Lance Barksdale, but aside from that Miley looks to be in a very nice spot this afternoon. Miley is a bargain on Fanduel at just $7.5k, though he’s certainly in play as well on Draftkings at $9.1k. The Orioles currently have a 3.63 implied line vs. Miley and the ‘Stros Sunday.
Home Run Potential
Let’s keep this one simple. Dylan Bundy gives up a lot of home runs. Alex Bregman hits a lot of home runs. Play Alex Bregman today. He is my top third base option in all formats.
