DFS Alerts
Cheap Value
Jason Kipnis has not been good this year. His numbers aren’t exciting no matter how you slice it. However, this is still a proven MLB hitter in a good matchup who will likely be hitting either 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in the lineup. The second base position is very weak today, so why not save some salary here? This is more about the matchup, the salary, and the opportunity than it is his 2019 numbers. Give me Kipnis as a core value.
Shhhhhhh
Sonny Gray has quietly turned a corner as a new member of the Reds. His ERA and xFIP are both in the low threes, and his strikeouts have ticked up to 27% this year. That’s supported by a bump to 11% in his swinging strike rate. He has actually been using his fastball more in 2019 with that increased success. The walks are still a problem at times, but this is a fine spot against a Phillies team that has been average at best against RHP in 2019.
Fantastic Upside On a Weak Slate for Pitching
Though his ERA is near 5.00, Rodriguez has been very unlucky this year with a .346 opposing BABIP. His advanced metrics are elite with a hard contact rate under 30%, a strikeout rate above league average, and a SIERA and xFIP under 4.00. The Rays are a tough opponent, but they have been much weaker against LHP this year with the highest strikeout rate in baseball. This slate is awful from a pitching perspective, so I’m happy to save a bit of salary with my top choice.
Elite Offensive Spot
The Twins own a .367 team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, which is tops in the league by ten points. For some reason, DFS players continue to sleep on Cron against lefties, and he just continues to rake. Cron owns a .479 wOBA, a .420 ISO, and elite metrics across the board against LHP this year. He homered again on Saturday, and the beat goes on. Fire him up with confidence against a bad lefty in Ryan Carpenter, and the Twins are in a great spot again today.
Angels bats in a great spot vs. struggling Kikuchi tonight
Yusei Kikuchi has had an up and down rookie year which has ultimately amounted to a 4.43 ERA / 4.66 xFIP / 4.70 SIERA with an 11.7% K-BB. Kikuchi does have a decent .317 xwOBA allowed, but has surrendered a .333 xwOBA allowed over the past month along with a 5.57 xFIP, 6.09 SIERA and just a 5% K-BB. The Angels have been the MLB’s 3rd hottest hitting team over the past 10 days and have lots of good options in their lineup tonight. Mike Trout (.423 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kevan Smith (.417), Albert Pujols (.380), Kole Calhoun (.376) and David Fletcher (.365) have all been very solid options vs. LHP on the year and are in the projected lineup. David Fletcher is projected to leadoff for the Angels and costs just $4.2k on Draftkings. Cesar Puello is another option with a 223 wRC+ in 28 PA on the year, he costs just $4.1k. Trout has been the hottest hitter with a scorching .560 xwOBA over the past 10 days, followed by Puello at .440. The Angels have a healthy 5.00 implied line vs. Kikuchi and the M’s tonight.
Other tagged players: Cesar Puello, Albert Pujols, David Fletcher, Kole Calhoun, Kevan Smith, Yusei Kikuchi
Max Scherzer worth the price Saturday night
There are other decent SP1 options on tonight’s slate, but arguably none with the floor/ceiling combo of Max Scherzer. Even at age 34 Scherzer has shown zero sign of slowing down as he has a 2.90 xFIP, 2.95 SIERA, 33.4% K rate, 5.1% BB rate and a much improved 42.8% GB rate. Scherzer also has just a .272 xwOBA allowed with an 8.1% barrel rate and 88 MPH aEV so far. Scherzer has gone 6+ innings in 11 of 13 starts on the year, and has given up 4 or more runs just twice. He gets a matchup in pitcher-friendly Petco tonight versus the Padres, who have just an 87 wRC+ and 26.8% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Padres also have just a 22nd ranked .316 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Padres have just a 3.36 implied line vs. Scherzer and the Nats Saturday night.
Matz is a bargain arm Saturday night
Steven Matz gets a decent matchup with the Rockies tonight and is arguably the top PTS/$ arm across all sites at home in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Matz has quietly had a decent, if unspectacular year with a 3.97 ERA / 4.18 xFIP / 4.22 SIERA , 22.9 K%, 7.4% BB rate and 48.2% GB rate. His Statcast numbers tell a similar story as he has a .326 xwOBA allowed with a pretty high 88.9 aEV, though the aEV isn’t a huge concern given the high GB rate and decent K-BB%. The Rockies have an atrocious 28th ranked 75 wRC+ and 27% K rate on the road this year which isn’t a big surprise given they put up similar numbers (78 wRC+, 24.1% K rate) on the road last year. They will have just two hitters in the lineup (Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond) who have a road xwOBA vs. LHP > .325 since 2018. Matz is just $6.8k on Draftkings and $7.6k on Fanduel and makes for a solid play as he shouldn’t have much trouble hitting value. The Rockies currently have a 4.00 implied line vs. Matz and the Mets.
Clear SP1
Max Scherzer is Saturday’s top pitcher by a wide margin. Scherzer has had a “down” season in terms of run prevention with a 3.06 ERA but has still been dominant at making batters miss with a 33.4% strikeout rate and 16.2% whiff rate. Everything seems to be working in Mad Max’s favor as he’ll toe the rubber against the Padres at pitcher friendly PetCo Park. The Padres lineup is powerful but also strikes out a ton as they lead the league with a 26.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Underpriced for Context
Matt Olson and the A’s not only get a huge park boost on the road at hitter friendly Globlife Park in Arlington but they also get a favorable matchup against Adrian Sampson. Olson is simply underpriced for the matchup and context as he’s a well above average hitter against right-handed pitching. For his career, Olson is the owner of a 134 wRC+ and has shown a ton of power with a .280 ISO.
Astros have highest total on the afternoon slate in matchup with Cashner
Andrew Cashner has had a rough year with a 5.04 ERA , 4.91 xFIP, and 5.02 SIERA with a 8.2% K-BB and 1.54 HR/9. His Statcast numbers are even worse as he has a .372 xwOBA allowed, .521 xSLG allowed, 10.6% barrels/BBE and 91 MPH aEV. The Astros are missing three of their stars (Correa, Altuve, Springer) but still have plenty of good options today vs. Cashner. Alex Bregman (.391 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Michael Brantley (.364), Josh Reddick (.336), Derek Fisher (.321), and Yuli Gurriel (.293) are all good options. Josh Reddick has been the ‘Stros hottest hitter with a .386 xwOBA allowed over the past 10 days, followed closely by Derek Fisher with a .374 mark. Fisher looks to be arguably the best value in the lineup, projected to leadoff at just $4.1k on Draftkings. Jack Mayfield (123 wRC+ in AAA this year) is also an intriguing play at just $2.7k on Draftkings. The Astros have a healthy 5.62 implied line vs. Cashner and the Orioles this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Derek Fisher, Yulieski Gurriel, Jack Mayfield, Michael Brantley, Andrew Cashner Julio Teheran gets nice matchup and pitcher-friendly umpire in Marlins Park
Teheran has not been as good this year as his 3.28 ERA suggests, as his 4.89 xFIP, 4.91 SIERA and 10.9% K-BB point towards some regression. However, SP is thin on this afternoon slate and Teheran has a great matchup with the Marlins in hitter-friendly Marlins Park Saturday afternoon. Teheran will also benefit from a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Ryan Blakney. The Marlins have an ugly 78 wRC+ and 25% K rate vs. RHP on the year, and wil have just two batters in their projected lineup (Brian Anderson, Garrett Cooper) who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .315 on the year. Since 2018, Teheran has just a .299 xwOBA with a 26.2% K rate vs. RHB compared to a .343 xwOBA and 18.8% K rate vs LHB. Fortunately, he projects to face just two left-handed bats in the Marlins order, both have an xwOBA below .300 vs. RHP on the year. The Marlins currently have a 3.39 implied line vs. Teheran and the Braves Saturday afternoon.
Giolito is a great option on a lackluster slate for SP
The afternoon slate doesn’t have much to offer in the way of starting pitching today; the only two options above $10k on Draftkings are Zack Greinke and Lucas Giolito. Giolito has made some great adjustments to his repertoire mid-season that has helped him to a 3.59 xFIP and 3.24 SIERA with a very impressive 30.5% K rate compared to just a 3.8% BB rate over the past 30 days. Giolito’s .248 xwOBA allowed and 85.3 aEV over the past 30 days are equally impressive. Giolito gets a matchup with the Royals this afternoon who have a roughly league-average 98 wRC+ and 22.4% K rate on the year. Without Hunter Dozier in the lineup, the Royals have just 3 batters (Soler, Gordon, Merrifield) who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .320 on the year. Giolito’s prices have fully adjusted to his newfound success as he’s $11.2k on Draftkings and $11.4k on Fanduel, but he still makes for a good play, especially on a dry slate for starting pitching. The Royals have a 4.22 implied line vs. Giolito and the White Sox Saturday.
Heating Up
Anthony Rizzo is one of my favorite overall Bats in tournaments today. He gets Jack Flaherty on the mound who just faced this Cubs team and Rizzo a week ago where he took Flaherty deep in his first at bat. Flaherty’s numbers are a lot worse to lefties giving up a 223 ISO, 41% fly ball rate, and 47% hard hit rate this season. Rizzo has really been hitting the ball well the last month and I expect his ownership to be a little lower because of the matchup against a solid pitcher in Flaherty.
Power Lefty's
I think that the Dodgers are a great stack against Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija is coming off of one of his best performances of the year but this matchup is a really tough one. This is because of all of the power lefties that the Dodgers have. This season Samardzija is giving up a 212 ISO, 51% fly ball rate, and 37% hard hit rate to left handed bats. I know that this game is in a good pitchers ball park, but I really like this stack in tournaments. I will be targeting Joc, Muncy Bellinger, and Seager in my stacks.
Power Lefty's
I think that the Dodgers are a great stack against Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija is coming off of one of his best performances of the year but this matchup is a really tough one. This is because of all of the power lefties that the Dodgers have. This season Samardzija is giving up a 212 ISO, 51% fly ball rate, and 37% hard hit rate to left handed bats. I know that this game is in a good pitchers ball park, but I really like this stack in tournaments. I will be targeting Joc, Muncy Bellinger, and Seager in my stacks.