DFS Alerts
Power Lefty's
I think that the Dodgers are a great stack against Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija is coming off of one of his best performances of the year but this matchup is a really tough one. This is because of all of the power lefties that the Dodgers have. This season Samardzija is giving up a 212 ISO, 51% fly ball rate, and 37% hard hit rate to left handed bats. I know that this game is in a good pitchers ball park, but I really like this stack in tournaments. I will be targeting Joc, Muncy Bellinger, and Seager in my stacks.
Contrarian Stack
I think that the Rockies are a stack that could go a little under owned. They face off against Steven Matz who I think could be popular on DraftKings at his cheap price. This Rockies lineup may be getting Charlie Blackman back today and they have a bunch of power righties to go up against Matz. I really like Story, Arenado, Desmond, and Blackman in my stacks with their speed and power combination.
Contrarian Stack
I think that the Rockies are a stack that could go a little under owned. They face off against Steven Matz who I think could be popular on DraftKings at his cheap price. This Rockies lineup may be getting Charlie Blackman back today and they have a bunch of power righties to go up against Matz. I really like Story, Arenado, Desmond, and Blackman in my stacks with their speed and power combination.
Contrarian Stack
I think that the Rockies are a stack that could go a little under owned. They face off against Steven Matz who I think could be popular on DraftKings at his cheap price. This Rockies lineup may be getting Charlie Blackman back today and they have a bunch of power righties to go up against Matz. I really like Story, Arenado, Desmond, and Blackman in my stacks with their speed and power combination.
Top SP Pivot
Everyone is going to be looking to pay up for Max Scherzer so I think a good Pivot is Rich Hill. We saw in back to back to back games Rich Hill go over 100 pitches. He is also going into a really good pitcher ballpark in San Francisco against a Giants team that doesn’t have a lot of dangerous right handed bats. Hill this season has a 28% strikeout rate and has allowed only three earned runs in his last 4 games. I like this spot for Hill tonight, especially if he gets a little over looked in tournaments.
The Clear Saturday Ace
If there was any doubt about his skill set, Scherzer quieted the doubters with a phenomenal outing in his last start against the Reds, where Scherzer threw eight brilliant innings while tallying 15 strikeouts and allowing just one run on three hits. He has only walked two total batters over his last two starts, so the command has been much improved. This is also a great matchup for him at Petco Park against a RH-heavy lineup. Scherzer has held RHBs to a .242 wOBA this year, which is more than 100 points better than the mark he has allowed to lefties. I see no reason not to consider Scherzer as the clear-cut top arm on this slate.
One of the Top Point Per Dollar Options
The game in Arlington is clearly the top spot for offense tonight, though it is a bit tricky with this being the second game of a day/night double-header. Oakland is in a prime spot here with a big park upgrade against Adrian Sampson and a mediocre bullpen after that. Now, it is worth noting that Sampson has been borderline fantastic over his last few starts, with a 22/1 K/BB ratio over his last 17 1/3 innings. He has won his last four outings. However, his xFIP still sits at 4.98, and he has allowed hard contact a whopping 46% of the time this year. His strikeout rate is at 18%. In other words, quite a bit of this recent success could be a mirage. Sampson has shown strong reverse splits for his career, allowing RHBs to post a .394 wOBA against him for his major league career to date. Matt Chapman and Khris Davis are the elite RH power bats on this team, and it’s worth noting that Davis is moderately priced as the 7th most expensive bat from the A’s on DraftKings. He’s a core play over there for sure, and I like him everywhere.
Solid Value Play
Although Lauer has been solid of late, I’ll side with some of the Washington bats that are better against lefties. Anthony Rendon obviously stands out with his elite splits, but he comes at a high price tag. On the value side, Brian Dozier has quietly looked a bit better of late and owns a .472 wOBA and 195 wRC+ against lefties this year. He’s one of the better value plays on the slate and has earned core status for that reason.
Elite Offensive Spot
Despite a 40% hard contact rate allowed this year, Jeff Samardzija has pitched to a .244 opposing BABIP. That’s quite the lucky horseshoe he has going on. It’s not likely to last, and the Dodgers are certainly a team that could inflict some damage. While his wOBA splits are fairly neutral this year, we can attribute much of that to sample size. His walk rate has more than doubled against LHBs compared to RHBs this year, and we have a few years of splits with Samardzija struggling more against lefty bats. His ground ball rate against lefties sits at just 29% this year. Cody Bellinger has a .490 wOBA and .368 ISO against RHP this year, while Joc Pederson sits at a .441 wOBA and .426 ISO. Both are elite plays tonight. Justin Turner and Corey Seager are more affordable plays, though nobody comes cheap on this offense. The park is a downgrade, but the matchup is elite. I’ll side with Pederson as my top option in all formats.
Brewers have highest implied total on the board tonight
The Brewers have a juicy matchup tonight versus Rookie Davis in Miller Park and currently have a 6.11 implied line. Davis has a 7.96 ERA / 5.20 xFIP with a 7.1 K-BB% and 2.56 (!) HR/9 over 31 2/3 career innings. Most projection systems have him as a roughly 5.50 ERA pitcher going forward. Davis will also have to contend with a very hitter-friendly umpire tonight in Sam Holbrook. Christian Yelich (.444 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Mike Moustakas (.357), Eric Thames (.331), Ryan Braun (.328), Yasmani Grandal (.326) and Lorenzo Cain (.317) are in the top-6 of the Brewers’ order and are all good options tonight. Orland Arcia has actually been the Brewers’ hottest hitter with a .414 xwOBA over the past 10 days and is available for just $3.9k on Draftkings. Travis Shaw is also a great value towards the bottom of the order at just $2.7k. Yelich’s price has risen to $6k now on Draftkings but he might be well worth with arguably the highest ceiling of any hitter tonight.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Orlando Arcia, Ryan Braun, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Lorenzo Cain, Yasmani Grandal
Gerrit Cole worth the price Friday night
Gerrit Cole has been insanely good this year, especially from a fantasy perspective with a 37.4% K rate compared to just a 6.5% BB rate, with a 2.52 xFIP and 2.74 SIERA. He has a 3.92 ERA that is very clearly due for some regression. Cole also has a .266 xwOBA allowed on the year with just a 6.9% barrel rate. Cole has shown no signs of slowing down as he has a 38% K rate and 5% BB rate over the past 30 days 2.33 SIERA and a 2.5 xFIP. He gets a nice matchup with the Orioles tonight who have just an 84 wRC+ and a 22.4% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Baltimore’s offense has been cold over the past 10 days with a 25th ranked .301 xwOBA. Cole does have a step price-tag at $12.2k on Draftkings and $11.2k on Fanduel, but his upside is unmatched. Jacob DeGrom will likely be the more popular play as he has a similarly advantageous matchup at a cheaper price, though it is likely worth getting some exposure to Cole as well given the insane ceiling he has. The Orioles carry just a 2.5 implied line into tonight’s matchup versus Cole.
Maikel Franco is expected to play
With Haseley scratched, Maikel Franco will join the Phillies lineup hitting eighth. He would be the deepest of GPP options with a loaded 3B position, but probably not someone to consider for most of your lineups.
As reported by: Scott Lauber
Indians offense has sneaky upside vs. German
By most metrics, Domingo German has been a very solid pitcher this year as he has a 3.66 ERA / 3.75 xFIP / 3.82 SIERA with a 19.8% K-BB. German does allow a good amount of loud contact though with an 88.7 aEV on the year. Over the past month, German has struggled with a .352 xwOBA allowed and an aEV of 90.1 MPH. He has a .394 xwOBACON on the year which goes to show that hitters can do some damage against him if they’re able to put the ball in play. Francisco Lindor (125 wRC+, .235 ISO vs. RHP over last calendar year), Carlos Santana (119 wRC+, .190 ISO), Oscar Mercado (105 wRC+, .145 ISO), Jose Ramirez (105 wRC+, .192 ISO), and Jason Kipnis (88 wRC+, .162 ISO) are all decent options that are in the top-5 of the Cleveland order tonight. Mercado, Kipnis and Ramirez are all available under $3.6k on Draftkings. Lindor has been on fire with an xwOBA of .476 over the past 10 days and will leadoff but is not cheap at $5.4k. Leonys Martin, Tyler Naquin and Jake Bauers are $3.2k or less at the bottom of the Indians’ order and are just dart-throw options as they have largely struggled so far in 2019. The Indians have a 4.40 implied line versus German and the Yankees tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Leonys Martin, Carlos Santana, Oscar Mercado, Jason Kipnis, Jakob Bauers, Tyler Naquin SDP projected lineup has lots of value and upside tonight
The Padres are set to face Eric Fedde in Petco Park tonight in what appears to be a nice matchup. Even in pitcher-friendly Petco, the Padres still have a healthy 4.50 implied line with multiple bats priced lower than they should be. On the year Eric Fedde has a 2.55 ERA but owns a 5.23 xFIP, 5.34 SIERA, 3.9% K-BB and an 8.1% SwStr over 25 innings. He does induce groundballs at a rate of 52.8%, which has helped him put up a solid .307 xwOBA against. However, Fedde has an abysmal K rate and allows lots of baserunners, and the Nats’ bullpen (4.98 xFIP, 1.59 HR/9 on the year) will do him no favors once he is out of the game. Franmil Reyes (.394 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $4.2k on DK), Eric Hosmer (.338, $4k), Manny Machado (.305, $3.8k) and Josh Naylor (.296, $3.8k) stand out as the best values in the lineup. Hunter Renfroe has been the Padres hottest hitter over the past 10 days with a .470 xwOBA, though will cost $5k on Draftkings. Fernando Tatis (.307 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) projects to leadoff and is always a threat for a steal, though he’s not necessarily a value at $4.9k.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Josh Naylor, Hunter Renfroe, Fernando Tatis, Erick Fedde Tyler Mahle has 20.7% K-BB and 3.82 xFIP over the past 30 days
With a decent amount of high-priced SP options on the main slate tonight, Tyler Mahle makes sense as an SP2, especially in tournaments. Mahle has quietly had a nice year with a 4.26 ERA / 3.47 xFIP / 3.68 SIERA with a 26.2% K rate compared to just a 5.5% BB rate along with a solid 43% GB rate. Mahle does give up some loud contact as evidenced by his 90 aEV, though it doesn’t usually result in too much damage as he keeps the ball on the ground fairly often. Tonight Mahle will get a matchup with the Phillies, who have a 93 wRC+ vs. RHP with a 23.5% K rate on the year. The Phillies do have a 4.65 implied line, but that’s not too surprising given that most projection systems have not caught on to Mahle’s adjutsments this year that have made him a very different pitcher than in previous years. Mahle has better success vs. righties this year (.279 xwOBA, 31% K rate vs. RHP, ,362 xwOBA and 20.2% K rate vs. LHB). He’ll face just four lefties in the Philly lineup tonight, and just one of them has an xwOBA vs. RHP that is above .350 on the year (Bryce Harper, .353). Mahle is under $8k on both major sites on tonight’s main slate.