DFS Alerts
Great Contact Skills
Alberto has been one of my favorite value plays against left-handed pitching, and he draws an excellent matchup tonight against Smyly. Smyly has a .375 wOBA with a .234 ISO and a 50.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. Alberto doesn’t have a ton of power, but he’s shown elite contact skills against lefties this season. He has a .414 wOBA with a 15.6% strikeout rate and a 1.6% walk rate against lefties in 2019.
Matchup in NY features two pitchers above a 19 K-BB%
The game at Citi Field presents an interesting matchup in a negative run environment, where both Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard are both right around $9K tonight. Bumgarner has a 19.6 K-BB% on the back of excellent control (4.6 BB%). His ERA sits with his estimators all around four with a bit too much hard contact (.325 xwOBA, .345 last 30 days). It’s possible that a great big park in San Francisco is assisting him a bit, but it’s not really much of a park downgrade tonight in terms of run environment. While the Mets will offer a predominantly right-handed lineup with some power (16.2 HR/FB vs LHP) there are going to be strikeouts in this lineup (26.2 K% vs LHP).
Noah Syndergaard is sitting on a 4.90 ERA that is incredibly difficult to justify. Each of his estimators is at least a full run lower with his 3.00 DRA nearly two runs below the actual. His .278 xwOBA is 48 points below his .326 wOBA, as he’s allowed just an 86.6 mph aEV and 4.6% Barrels/BBE. His 81.5 Z-Contact% and 18.2 LD%, both near the top of the board as well. The peripherals…a 19.1 K-BB%. What’s going on then? A .333 BABIP and 64.7 LOB%. A lot of bad luck hits. Syndergaard 13.5 HR/FB and 31.8 Hard% are both well above his career average, so the argument isn’t that he’s been dominant, just that his numbers are still fairly strong and he costs less than $10K against a very poor offense (80 wRC+, 14.9 K-BB%, 12.5 HR/FB vs RHP) in a great park. Players tired of being burned may want to skip over him on a strong board tonight, but Thor has struck out fewer than five just one time this season and has faced at least 25 batters in every start since his second of the season. There’s a reasonable floor here as well as a high ceiling.
Ground Balls With Soft Contact
I’m not a big Chase Anderson fan, but this is a really good matchup on paper. The projected starting lineup for the Marlins have a 47.8% ground ball rate with a .117 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. With the massive amounts of grounds balls and the little power in this lineup, Anderson seems like a really solid value option. He has a 23.9% strikeout rate with a 11.3% swinging strike rate, which gives him some upside in this matchup. His biggest issue has been hard contact this season, which is always concerning, but a little less concerning in this matchup.
RHBs have a .416 wOBA and xwOBA over Ryan Carpenter's last six starts
Ryan Carpenter has gotten better results in his last two starts (3 ER – 10 IP – 8 K), but his 23.1 HR/FB (six in four starts) is worst on the board. His 44.8 Z-O-Swing% is fourth worst. His ERA and all of his estimators are above five with his actual ERA and DRA above seven. His 12.3% Barrels/BBE is third worst on the board, his 50.8% 95+ mph EV is second worst. While xwOBA concedes 71 points of Carpenter’s .408 wOBA against same-handed batters over the last calendar year (just six starts total), it exactly confirms his .416 wOBA against RHBs. At 5.41 implied runs, the Rays are right in the middle of that pack on the top third of the board above five runs tonight. Key bats in the Tampa Bay projected lineup are Tommy Pham (140 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Avisail Garcia (119 wRC+, .222 ISO), who are both above a 270 wRC+ over the last week. Yandy Diaz (134 wRC+, .217 ISO) is 0 for 8 since returning from the IL this weekend.
Other tagged players: Avisail Garcia, Yandy Diaz, Ryan Carpenter Strong SP2
Max Fried draws a really good matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh tonight. This team has struggled with left-handed pitching this season, and everyone but Osuna (1 AB) has a ground ball rate over 45% against left-handed pitching this season. Fried has a 55.2% ground ball rate with an average air distance of 139.8. This is a positive ballpark shift for Fried and with this team walking at a very low rate, it’s a plus matchup in multiple ways tonight.
Blake Snell tops the board with a 34.9 K%, 19.1 SwStr% and 76.8 Z-Contact%
While seven different pitchers reach the $10K price point on at least one site tonight, three are at least $11K on both sites. Two of those top end pitchers have extremely high upsides in great matchups. Stephen Strasburg is probably the top arm on the board tonight, but also the most expensive. He’s having the best year of his career and his numbers are amazing. He’s recorded at least two seventh inning outs in seven of his last eight starts, allowing more than two ERs in just one of those. His 31.3 K% and 14.6 SwStr% are both third best on the board, but his 21.9 Z-O-Swing%, .240 xwOBA and 1.59 DRA are all first. The White Sox have a 19.3 K-BB% vs RHP.
Blake Snell is the third most expensive pitcher on the board on either site, but may be the best value among the three. He’s completed six innings in four of his last five starts and is sitting on a 20.5 SwStr% over that span. He tops the board for the season with a 34.9 K%, 19.1 SwStr%, and 76.8 Z-Contact%. In fact, he’s the only pitcher on the board below an 80% Zone Contact rate. His 2.99 SIERA and 27% 95+ mph EV also both top the board, while his .248 xwOBA is second. His 2.63 DRA is behind four other pitchers tonight, perhaps because he hasn’t faced a lot of quality offenses, but he’s getting another poor set of bats tonight in Detroit. The Tigers have just a 6.6 HR/FB at home this year and 26.4 K% with a 9.9 HR/FB vs LHP.
Luke Voit has demolished LHP over the last year (160 wRC+, .355 ISO)
Clayton Richard has walked six of the 34 batters he’s faced, striking out just five (board worst 91.1 Z-Contact%, second worst 48.1 Z-O-Swing%) with a 54.5 GB%, but a 93.5 mph aEV and 61.9% 95+ mph that are both worst on the board. Considering Richard has kept LHBs on the ground 75.8% of the time over the last 12 months, players will want to limit exposure to RHBs, which shouldn’t really prohibit any really important Yankee bats tonight. Batters with the platoon advantage have a .346 wOBA, but .383 xwOBA with a 43.4 Hard% against Richard over the last 12 months. Luke Voit (160 wRC+, .355 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is one of the most interesting bats on the slate tonight, but Gary Sanchez (106 wRC+, .282 ISO), Gleyber Torres (112 wRC+, .280 ISO), Aaron Hicks (112 wRC+, .240 ISO), DJ LeMahieu (120 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Clint Frazier (112 wRC+, .195 ISO) are all dangerous bats as well. The Yankees are one of 10 teams above five implied runs tonight, but are on the back half of that top third of the board (5.25).
Other tagged players: Clayton Richard, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks The Pirates have a 73 wRC+ and 20.5 K-BB% vs LHP
Max Fried has a 21.9 K%, but it’s just outside the bottom third on this board. While his 3.90 SIERA is well above his 3.19 ERA due to an 80.7 LOB%, he has a 2.75 DRA and has avoided Barrels (3.3% per BBE) due in part to a 54% ground ball rate. While there’s not really much that’s exceptional here, he’s certainly a quality arm. Though he’s allowed exactly four runs in three of his last seven starts, he hasn’t allowed more than that all season, which seems like a solid floor for a pitcher getting a park upgrade tonight, against a team with a split low 73 wRC+ vs LHP and tying them for a split high 20.5 K-BB% against southpaws as well. Considering a $7.8K price tag on DraftKings, Fried may be one of the better values on the board and a nice compliment to a Strasburg or Snell type.
Reynaldo Lopez has an 11.7 K% and .410 xwOBA over the last month
Reynaldo Lopez has a 20.7 K% this season. Take out back to back starts against the Tigers and it’s just 14.1% over his other 10 starts. Over the last month, it’s been 11.7% (though with an 8.4 SwStr%). His 46.1 Z-O-Swing% is third worst on the board. His 10.2% Barrels/BBE is fourth worst. Not missing bats and generating that amount of hard contact has led to a .410 xwOBA over the last month. While his SIERA, xFIP and FIP are below six with a 6.20 ERA, due to a .332 BABIP, his 9.72 DRA is quite disturbing. Washington bats are the play here and while their healthy 5.41 implied run line would likely make that obvious, with a full one-third of the board above five runs tonight and the Nationals half way down that list, lineups should be well distributed. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Lopez over the last calendar year. They also have a hard hit rate above 35% with a ground ball rate below 32%, offering plenty of power potential here. Anthony Rendon (156 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP), Juan Soto (148 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Howie Kendrick (128 wRC+, .261 ISO) are your projected participants above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last month. Adding additional fuel, each is above a 190 wRC+ over the last week and a 140 wRC+ at home since last season.
Other tagged players: Howie Kendrick, Reynaldo Lopez If You Can't Go Double Aces
With all the strong pitching up top, I would love to be able to use double aces tonight, but we’ve also got some high end bats to think about, so I’m looking into the mid-range for an SP2. Eduardo Rodriguez stands out for his salary with a solid 25% strikeout rate and 7.6% walks this season. His ERA has suffered from a high .345 BABIP despite a low 27.4% hard hit rate which tells me he should at least get down to his 4.02 SIERA. The Royals are an above average strikeout team without much patience, and they are missing one of their best right-handed power bats with Hunter Dozier on the IL.
Loads Of Lefty Power
The Dodgers have a scary amount of left-handed power for a young right-handed pitcher like Taylor Clarke who lacks strikeout ability. We don’t know exactly what kind of pitcher he is yet, but even at Triple-A he was a below average strikeout pitcher and he’s managed just 11 K in his first major league innings. There are four Dodgers lefties with ISO’s above .235 and six with hard hit rates above 40% against righties this season. It starts up top with Joc Pederson and his massive .447 ISO and .465 wOBA at a discounted price on FD.
Cheap Power
Khris Davis is priced way down on DK/FDRFT after his return from the DL. This looks like under-priced power with his 42% hard hits and 42% fly balls against right-handed pitching. The Angels Griffin Canning is a good young pitcher, but early on he is showing reverse splits as an extreme strike thrower to righties with just below average strikeout ability and a high fly ball lean.
Aces, Aces Everywhere
We’ve got a loaded pitching slate tonight and there are a lot of ways to go, but combining skill set, track record and matchup, Stephen Strasburg will be my top choice tonight. He has quality starts in seven of his last eight outings and has topped seven strikeouts in 10 of his 12 starts this season. His pure strikeout ability isn’t as high as Blake Snell, but it’s still one of the best in the league at 31.3% along with just 6.4% walks. He is at home against a White Sox team that is already one of the highest K teams in the league and now they’ll be without a DH. Strasburg is my first priority in cash games tonight and my favorite among a strong group of tournament options.
Power and Patience
Even in neutral conditions, I would be interested in Kyle Schwarber against Jeff Hoffman. Tonight in Wrigley, he’ll also get some help from the wind blowing out. Schwarber has become more DFS relevant since being moved to the leadoff spot, where his patience adds to his run scoring upside even when he’s not hitting home runs. Of course those home runs are what we want and Schwarber hit six of them in the month of May with 43% fly balls and 43% hard hits.
Corbin Martin has allowed five HRs with eight walks in his last three starts (11 innings)
Corbin Martin has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 11 innings since an impressive debut, where he struck out nine Rangers. The 50th ranked prospect (Fangraphs) has faced 56 batters since then, walking eight and striking out only seven, while allowing five HRs. Martin has had above average strikeout rates at every stop in professional baseball, so it’s not a question of talent, but he appears over-matched in recent starts. The good news is that his 31.6 HR/FB comes with a board best 17.6 Hard-Soft%, supported by a 17.6 LD% and 15.8 IFFB%. The Statcast numbers tell a different, and stranger story though. While he’s allowed just 5.9% Barrels/BBE (best on the board), he’s also generating a 90.1 mph aEV with 45.1% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. Estimators, all above five, stand by his 5.51 ERA. On a three game slate, this is a spot where players can certainly take GPP shots on his prospect upside in a secondary role on DraftKings for $7.1K, but Seattle bats are certainly worth a flyer as well, as a lot of players probably aren’t sure how to handle Martin yet and would rather attack Eric Lauer’s 4.8 SwStr% over the last month or Wade LeBlanc’s .410 xwOBA this season. Martin has allowed much harder contact (42.3 Hard%) and a .370 xwOBA to same-handed batters so far (LHBs 28 Hard%, .288 xwOBA). Mitch Haniger (134 wRC+, .174 ISO), Domingo Santana (115 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (135 wRC+, .214 ISO) have been the batters who have done the most damage to same-handed pitching this year. Tim Beckham (103 wRC+, .203 ISO) has been competent as well.
Other tagged players: Corbin Martin, Mitch Haniger, Tim Beckham, Domingo Santana